Can limiting global temperature rise to below 2°C warming prevent the emergence of unprecedented drought?

Abstract

In the context of anthropogenic global warming, unprecedented drought is expected to emerge over some regions where drought conditions exceed the variation range of the natural state. However, it is still unclear how the 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming targets proposed by the Paris Agreement will delay or even prevent the emergence of unprecedented drought. To illustrate the benefits of the two warming targets for mitigating drought conditions, this study investigated the time of emergence (TOE) of unprecedented meteorological drought as indicated by the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model ensembles forced by 4 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5). In particular, the pattern of TOE is explored for 4 pseudo warming scenarios under which global mean surface temperature (GMST) increases by 1.5 °C, 2 °C, 3 °C, and 4 °C above pre-industrial levels, respectively. The results suggested that: (1) Under the 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming scenarios, unprecedented meteorological drought is anticipated to emerge over southern Africa, Arabian Peninsula, central Asia, Mongolia, southwestern South America, and western and eastern Australia. (2) Under the 3 °C and 4 °C warming scenarios, unprecedented meteorological drought will expand to western North America, the Amazon, and the Mediterranean. (3) The comparisons with the exposure under the 3 °C and 4 °C warming scenarios show that the aspirational 1.5 °C and 2 °C Paris Agreement warming targets can prevent at least 0.6 × 107 km2 of land area, 1.4 × 108 people, and 0.6 × 106 km2 of cropland area from suffering the emergence of unprecedented meteorological drought.