Capita Income Growth Rate Research Articles

An Empirical Study of the Implications of Service Sector Growth for Output Growth in Bangladesh

Due to the growing importance of Bangladesh’s service economy and the country’s expanding industrial sector, strengthening the service sector has become a primary objective. Given the size and interconnectedness of the services sector with the rest of the economy, it is critical to understand how it affects other macroeconomic variables, most notably output growth. Our primary objective is to survey and analyse the service sector’s current state to ascertain its contribution to economic growth. This study undertakes this investigation using systematic econometric approaches and annual data from 1972 to 2021. Findings suggest that expanding the service industry in Bangladesh positively impacts the country’s per capita income (PCI) growth rate. Particularly, if the service sector growth increases by one percentage point, the growth of per capita real GDP will increase by 0.62 percentage points. The finding has important policy implications. Most importantly, government needs to enact policies to promote the service sector of the country in an effort to achieve economic prosperity. JEL Codes: L80, O11, O14

Exploring the Key Factors Influencing Sustainable Urban Renewal from the Perspective of Multiple Stakeholders

A successful urban renewal policy, process, and project implementation should advocate sustainable development from economic, social, and environmental perspectives. As different stakeholders have different interests and insights into the importance of the environment, housing, social wellbeing, and economic concerns, they often have different ideas concerning how to develop urban renewal strategies and implement projects. Although previous studies have focused on the opinions of governments and academics, fewer studies have considered the direct beneficiaries of urban renewal—the residents. This study examined the key factors that influence sustainable urban renewal from the perspective of multiple stakeholders, including local governments, residents, developers, and designers. Social network analysis (SNA) and the reliability interval method (RIM) were integrated to form a SNA-RIM analytical framework to analyze the importance of the influencing factors. The results showed that the adjustment of the regional industrial structure, employment opportunities, and environmental qualification improvement had the most significant influence on sustainable urban renewal from economic, social, and environmental perspectives, respectively. In addition, different types of stakeholders do not value sustainability indicators in the same way. Local governments place more emphasis on return on investment, employment opportunities, and environmental qualification improvement, whereas residents focus on per capita income growth rate, public service facilities, and convenience of municipal infrastructure. Developers are most interested in the land value growth rate, public service facilities, and effective land use space, whereas designers attach the greatest importance to the adjustment of regional industrial structure, public service facilities, and effective land use space. Therefore, this study can help urban planners and decision makers balance the interests, seek common benefits for different types of stakeholders, and improve sustainable and inclusive urban renewal.

Application of klassen typology in the pattern of environmental carrying capacity and its role in regional economic development

Each region in Indonesia has unique characteristics, resource availability, and resource resilience. In this aspect, resilience refers to a system’s capacity to absorb disruptions without losing stability. Environmental carrying capacity demonstrates the necessity of environmental resilience for economic activity. The objective of the study was to determine how the environmental carrying capacity would be spread across Indonesia between 2013 and 2019. The Klassen typology analysis approach takes into account the endogenous characteristics through the environment’s ability to promote regional economic growth. The findings indicate that just 26% of provinces have the environmental carrying capacity to operate efficiently. It was apparent from the high per capita income growth rate and good environmental capacity. Many provinces have not managed their economic affairs in a way that has improved the well-being of the people. Policy priorities can be modified to align their designation with the relevant area classification. Moreover, good coordination and collaboration are required to preserve and enhance the environment, particularly between provincial and municipal governments.

Structural transformation trajectories: Evidence from successful exporting countries

This paper identifies and examines several success criteria for the structural transformation of exports. Some detailed facts for the leading countries in structural transformation are presented, and the paper is the first in social sciences literature to calculate the Fréchet distances between the structural transformation trajectories according to various criteria. The paper introduces the concept of structural transformation trajectory that is defined as the path in the two coordinates — per capita income and one of the success criteria for the structural transformation of exports. Based on the brief review of the literature, four criteria for the empirical research are selected: (i) an increase in the ratio of exports of capital to consumer products, (ii) an enhancement of the export share of high-tech products, (iii) a decrease in export concentration, and (iv) an expansion of export complexity. In most cases, countries leading structural transformation succeed due to a limited number of specific factors, such as foreign direct investment in a limited number of sectors, participation in the assembly of telecom products, automobiles or similar consumer products, and re-export of products from other countries. However, high per capita income growth rates are typically observed in countries with high coherence of the success criteria for the structural transformation of exports, that is, in countries that made progress on a whole range of criteria.

Structural transformation trajectories: Evidence from successful exporting countries

This paper identifies and examines several success criteria for the structural transformation of exports. Some detailed facts for the leading countries in structural transformation are presented, and the paper is the first in social sciences literature to calculate the Fréchet distances between the structural transformation trajectories according to various criteria. The paper introduces the concept of structural transformation trajectory that is defined as the path in the two coordinates — per capita income and one of the success criteria for the structural transformation of exports. Based on the brief review of the literature, four criteria for the empirical research are selected: (i) an increase in the ratio of exports of capital to consumer products, (ii) an enhancement of the export share of high-tech products, (iii) a decrease in export concentration, and (iv) an expansion of export complexity. In most cases, countries leading structural transformation succeed due to a limited number of specific factors, such as foreign direct investment in a limited number of sectors, participation in the assembly of telecom products, automobiles or similar consumer products, and re-export of products from other countries. However, high per capita income growth rates are typically observed in countries with high coherence of the success criteria for the structural transformation of exports, that is, in countries that made progress on a whole range of criteria.

Manufactoring, economic growth, and real exchange rate: Empirical evidence in panel data and input-output multipliers

This paper investigates the effects of manufacturing and of the real exchange rate (RER) on real per capita income growth. We use dynamic panel models and the calculation of output and employment multipliers for a diversified sample of countries from 1990 to 2011. Three important results can be highlighted. First, we provide new evidence that manufacturing is the most important tradable sector for achieving greater real per capita income growth for developing countries. Second, the greater a country’s gap in relation to the technological frontier, the greater the positive effect of an undervalued RER on the real per capita income growth rate. Finally, the manufacturing industry’s output multipliers and employment multipliers in the developing countries are higher than those in in developed ones, in all years analyzed. JEL codes : F43, L16, R15

Determinants of the result of new rural development program in Vietnam

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to identify the determinants of the proportion of communes that met all national new rural criteria (hereafter NRD communes).Design/methodology/approachFirst, the method of propensity score (PS) stratification is used to classify 63 provinces into the subgroups. Second, the ordinary least squares (OLS) model is used with the subgroups classified from the PS stratification method as one of explicative variables. The dependent variable in the OLS model is the proportion of NRD communes.FindingsWith the sample of 63 provinces of Vietnam, the author found that per capita income growth rate, high growth of gross regional domestic product (GRDP) and effort of the provincial authority have positive impact on the proportion of NRD communes.Practical implicationsThis research suggests that the provincial authority should actively participate in the NRD program, and the economic development is key factor for success implementation of the NRD program.Originality/valueThis research contributes to understand the factors impacting the result of the NRD program and then help to identify the measures to support this program.

The Impact of Financial Inclusion on Poverty in Jordan

This study aimed to estimate the long-run impact of financial inclusion along with a set of control variables on the poverty in Jordan during the period spans from 1980 through 2018. The per capita income growth rate was used as an indicator of poverty due to the lack of annual data on poverty indices. The study used the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model to test for cointegration. Also, both Fully Modified OLS (FMOLS) and Dynamic OLS (DOLS) are used to estimate the long-run model parameters. The ADF (Augmented Dickey-Fuller) results indicate that the variables integrated of order one I(1) or integrated of order zero I(0) but none is I(2). The diagnostic statistical tests necessary to ensure the model’s adequacy and validity indicate that the model is free from statistical problems, and the estimation results are reliable. The bounds test to cointegration provide evidence on the existence of long-run equilibrium relationship among variables, and hence, the variables are cointegrated. The empirical results revealed a positive effect of loans and demand deposits on per capita income, which reflects a reduction in poverty. While the number of bank branches has a negative impact on the per capita income, and hence, increasing poverty. Accordingly, the study recommended improving financial and banking systems to facilitate obtaining loans, increase the number of branches to improve individuals' access to financial services, and raising the interest rate on deposits to encourage investors and capital owners and companies to save in banks.

Econometric Analysis of Sustainable National Economy Development

Purpose. The study objective was to model conditions, mechanisms and opportunities to achieve sustainable development parameters for the national economy. Меthods. Analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction, analytical grouping and special (abstraction, modelling, etc.) methods of studying economic phenomena and processes have been used. Results. Based on the analysis of the dynamics of GDP growth rates, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, oxide and carbon dioxide emissions during 1991-2017, the cycle of their change lasting 3 - 5 years has been proved. It has been found out that the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) in Ukraine is a specific one due to the "turning points". According to the results of comparing the cyclicality of per capita income growth rates, GDP indexes with the dynamics of dependence between the hazardous substances emissions and per capita income and GDP in actual prices, it is found that they do not always coincide. It gives grounds to make a conclusion about the presence of lag between the emissions volumes changes and values of per capita income and GDP in actual prices. The conclusions are grounded on the comparison of the dynamics of GDP growth rates, income per capita, pollutant emissions and the parameters of their mutual correlation. It has been proposed to carry out coordinated policy referring its economic, social and environmental components, taking into account the time lag to create the conditions for the EKC curve parameters in the economy of Ukraine. Conclusions. . Based on the analysis of GDP growth rates dynamics, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, carbon oxide and dioxide emissions, the periodicity (cyclicality) of their change has been proved. In Ukraine, EKC has a specific nature in the form of separate «turning points», without achievement of long-term parameters of the relationship between the hazardous substances emissions and GDP and per capita income values. Thus, the feasibility of developing the agreed policy concerning the economic (GDP value), social (population income level) and environmental components (conservation activity financing and decrease of hazardous substances emissions) taking into account the time lag, which will create the conditions for achieving not only temporary values, but also long-term parameters of EKC curve in the Ukrainian economy, was substantiated. The obtained results allow to forecast sustainable development parameters of Ukraine for the future.

MIGRANTS’ REMITTANCES AND PUBLIC EXPENDITURE ON EDUCATION NEXUS: EVIDENCE FROM AN OIL-DEPENDENT ECONOMY

This study examined migrants’ remittances, public expenditure on education and their implications for educational development in Nigeria, using Secondary School enrolment rates (SSER) as a proxy for the latter for the period 1981 to 2017. The study utilised Cointegration and error correction modelling approach in order to minimise the likelihood of producing explosive regression estimates. The empirical findings of the study indicate that Migrants’ remittances received, Public expenditures on Education and Per Capita Income growth rate exert statistically significant positive impacts on educational development in the country, while the association turned negative in the case of population growth rate. The fundamental role played by both migrant’s remittances received and Public expenditures on Education in stimulating educational development was evidently established in the study. The study therefore recommends, among others, the adoption of strategic measures that will help boost the rate of school enrolment in the country by encouraging migrants’ remittances through continuous engagement of Nigerians in the Diaspora in the country’s political and socio-economic affairs, progressive increment in budgetary allocations to the nation’s education sector, as well as enhancing the per capita income of the country through investments in key sectors of the nation’s economy.

Determinant of Human Development Index in ASEAN Countries

Human development index is one indicator of development progress on aspects of human quality in a country. This study aims to determine the factors that affect the human development index in nations in ASEAN member countries. The analysis technique used is regression by using panel data regression with fixed effect model. The results of processing with fixed effect model show that population and per capita income growth rate affects the human development index in ASEAN member countries, while the variable rate of inflation and unemployment rate does not have an impact on the human development index. This study implies the importance of government to control the population and acceleration of economic growth.DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v7i1.6756

Impact Evaluation of Investments in the Appalachian Region

We evaluate the impact of a half century of nontransportation Appalachian Regional Commission (ARC) investments on its constituent counties using quasi-experimental methods. We apply a set of propensity score methods and select the most appropriate matching algorithm for use in identifying the effects of policy implementation. The results of the analyses indicate that counties that received ARC funding grew faster than the control counties. The long-run per capita income growth rate in ARC investment counties was an average of 5.5 percent higher than in the control counties. Employment also grew significantly faster in these ARC counties than in the control counties for most of the study period. The average difference in the long-run employment growth rates between the counties that received ARC investments and those counties that did not was approximately 4.2 percent.

Is Sub-Saharan Africa catching up?

This paper examines the catching-up process of sub-Saharan African countries. For that purpose, it investigates whether sub-Saharan African countries have shown a change in trend in their per capita GDP and whether these countries are closing the gap with developed economies, taking as reference the long-run per capita income growth rate of the USA. To test for changes in the level or in the trend, we use the algorithm developed by Kejriwal and Perron (J Time Ser Anal 31:305–328, 2010. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9892.2010.00666.x) to detect structural breaks for each sub-Saharan African country for the period 1950–2010 and then verify whether per capita income paths eventually converge to their long-run trend. We find evidence that some countries have been doing well since their independence. They include Botswana, Equatorial Guinea, Ghana, Lesotho, Mauritius, Rwanda and Seychelles. After having a poor performance, we also find that some others have changed their luck and have started a catching up process. They include Angola, Cape Verde, Eritrea–Ethiopia, Mauritania, Mozambique, Sierra Leone, Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda. All other are still falling behind.

Estimating Inequality Semi-elasticity of Poverty Reduction in Nigeria

The efficacy of public policies to reduce poverty became questionable following the HNLSS 2010 report because per capita income growth rate rose from 3.3 % in 2004 to 4.9 % in 2010 suggesting that the economy grew by 1.04 % per year between 2004 and 2010; and yet both poverty and inequality increased. Poverty increased from 54.4 % in 2004 to 69 % in 2010 suggesting that poverty grew by 1.07 % per year between 2004 and 2010. Inequality rose from 0.4296 in 2004 to 0.442 in 2010 suggesting that inequality rose by 1.19 % per year between 2004 and 2010. The rise in growth was not accompanied by reduction in both poverty and inequality. The study was motivated by the quest to predict where distributional changes will have the largest impact on poverty reduction as well as to assess the relative effectiveness of Araar’s (Expected poverty changes with economic growth and redistribution, 2012) four competing approaches to semi-elasticity estimation. Previous studies neither estimated the absolute level of changes in Foster–Greer–Thorbecke (FGT) poverty measures nor the associated poverty semi-elasticity of distributional changes, thus did not consider simulated non-marginal distributive changes due to initial level of poverty. The objectives of study are first, to investigate the inequality semi-elasticity of poverty reduction in Nigeria using four competing approaches by Araar (2012); and second, to predict where distributional changes will have the largest impact on poverty reduction using HNLSS 2010 and NLSS 2004. The study finds that inequality semi-elasticity estimates are sensitive to the choice of FGT poverty measure. In terms of the relative effectiveness of the four competing approaches, the study finds also that the analytical method performs best in the rural area, but poorly in the urban area as inequality rises. It also finds that the numerical approach performs best when the distributive change is on poverty gap and squared poverty gap for both marginal and non-marginal changes. It further finds that the analytical method yields more reliable estimates as the rise in inequality continues at higher percentages say 5 and 10 %. The effect of the rise in inequality on poverty gap suggests that poverty increased faster and higher in the urban area than in the rural area; while for squared poverty gap poverty increased faster in the rural area than in the urban area. This confirms that squared poverty gap measures poverty better than either poverty incidence or poverty gap indicating that it is the most distributive-sensitive poverty measure. It was further observed that the semi-elasticity estimates on poverty gap both for urban and rural areas confirmed the numerical method as producing highest expected poverty rates than the other competing approaches with the counterfactual approach yielding the second highest.

Personality traits and economic activity

ABSTRACTFollowing Lynn’s (1991) studying showing that the scores of undergraduate students in 43 countries on variables such as work ethic and achievement motivation predicted per capita income and economic growth rates in those countries, the present study explored whether the average scores of residents of the 50 states in the United States were associated with the gross state product. States whose residents scored higher on openness had higher gross state products while those whose residents scored higher in openness and lower on neuroticism had higher gross state products per capita.

English

Among the wide array of macroeconomic problems confronted by Pakistan, foreign debt servicing, has occupied a substantial place. Persistent fiscal deficit since the independence, turned out to be the ground for various governments to rely on the internal or external borrowings. The acquisition of more external debt instead of internal resource mobilization results in higher level of debt stock. Due to soaring level of debt, Pakistan has been allocating a major chunk of resources to debt repayment, which is tarnishing its economic growth. The present study has been conducted to discover the impact of foreign debt servicing on per capita income growth rate of Pakistan for the period 1981 to 2010 by applying relatively new technique, called auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) of co-integration. The results confirm that the foreign debt servicing has adversely and significantly affected the per capita income growth rate of Pakistan in both short-run and long-run in the specified period. There is an ardent need for comprehensive policy on part of the government of Pakistan to salvage the economy of such a financial loss. Key words: Per capita income, growth rate, debt, debt servicing, ARDL and co –integration.

Trade Liberalization: Is it a Useful Program for Agricultural and Manufacturing Sectors in Developing Countries?

The authors investigated whether trade liberalization is a useful programme for agricultural and manufacturing sectors in the developing countries. A historical approach was used to measure impact. There are mixed results regarding the impact of trade liberalization. The results which show negative impact are generalized without being very exact the nature of impact. The results which show positive impact of trade liberalization have generally based their evidence on real GDP and per capita income growth rates while ignoring other factors which contribute to their growth. Two schools of thought have emerged namely pro-trade liberalization and those against trade liberalization. Indicators are purposely chosen and the results support that school of thought. It is recommended that studies of trade liberalization use a number of indicators to measure impact. That studies should be able to iso;ate other influences on the indicator before making conclusions. There is a need to come up with uniform indicators to measure impact. A developing country should initiate a comprehensive study of its economy before entering zero tariff agreement with developed country. Developing countries should attract transnational corporations to improve efficiency. Policies which encourage redistribution of incomes should be introduced.

Shellfish Aquaculture Management of Jiaozhou Bay, Yellow Sea Coast of China - An Ecological-Economic Modeling Approach

In order to better manage shellfish aquaculture, a fifty-year variability in shellfish production in Jiaozhou Bay was quantitatively simulated with the Modeling Approach to Resource economics decision-maKing in EcoaquaculTure (MARKET) which is a scenario-testing tool linking economic and ecological analyses. Four scenarios were defined to assess the model sensitivity to per capita income growth rate, price growth rate and maximum cultivation area. Results indicate that the MARKET model follows the expected trends regarding the economic theory. And the shellfish supply is limited by the maximum cultivation area in the long run. However, a lower demand does not imply a corresponding decrease in net profit. Although price growth can make up for a partial loss caused by the reduction of available cultivation area, the compensatory measure cannot guarantee the increasing net profits of farmers in the long term. The information provides important implications for aquaculture management in the context of resource decline.

Urban Public Pension and Economic Growth in China

Employing an endogenous growth model, this paper investigates China’s partially funded public pension system. We examine the effects of the firm contribution rate and individual contribution rate on the per capita income growth rate, population growth rate, saving rate and education expense rate. The results are as follows: Raising the firm contribution rate decreases the per capita income growth rate and saving rate, whereas increases the population growth rate and education expense rate. Raising the individual contribution rate decreases the per capita income growth rate, saving rate and education expense rate, whereas increases the population growth rate. The effect of the firm contribution rate on the per capita income growth rate is much greater than that of the individual contribution rate. The effects of the firm contribution rate on the population growth rate, saving rate and education expense rate are smaller than that of the individual contribution rate. It has more advantages than disadvantages to reduce the firm contribution rate and raise the individual contribution rate.

Halving poverty in HIPC countries by 2015: How costly if achievable?

This article assesses the likelihood and costs of halving the poverty headcount ratio by 2015 from its 1990 levels in sixteen post-HIPC–MDRI countries. An optimistic pro-poor growth scenario indicates that, on average, they will attain this goal 2 years before the end date. An estimated annual cost of 16 percent of the recipients’ GDPs suggests that currently available funds will be sufficient to finance the MDG poverty target, provided that they achieve a 6 percent annual economic growth, improve their equality of incomes and implement policies to raise absorptive capacity to levels obtained by East Asian countries in the mid-1990s.