Abstract
In order to better manage shellfish aquaculture, a fifty-year variability in shellfish production in Jiaozhou Bay was quantitatively simulated with the Modeling Approach to Resource economics decision-maKing in EcoaquaculTure (MARKET) which is a scenario-testing tool linking economic and ecological analyses. Four scenarios were defined to assess the model sensitivity to per capita income growth rate, price growth rate and maximum cultivation area. Results indicate that the MARKET model follows the expected trends regarding the economic theory. And the shellfish supply is limited by the maximum cultivation area in the long run. However, a lower demand does not imply a corresponding decrease in net profit. Although price growth can make up for a partial loss caused by the reduction of available cultivation area, the compensatory measure cannot guarantee the increasing net profits of farmers in the long term. The information provides important implications for aquaculture management in the context of resource decline.
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