Budget Cycle Research Articles

Debate: Why are politicians reluctant to use performance information in the control phase of the performance budget cycle?

Debate: Why are politicians reluctant to use performance information in the control phase of the performance budget cycle?

A Systematic Investigation of Tobacco Industry Sourced Data Relating to Illicit Tobacco Trade Featured in Pakistan's Media Coverage (2015-2020).

Previous evidence suggests the tobacco industry uses media to disseminate misleading narratives relating to illicit tobacco trade (ITT) as part of efforts to influence policy outcomes. Such evidence is largely high-income countries (HIC) focused, resulting in a literature gap for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Pakistan and its annual budget cycle are used as a case study for addressing this gap. Electronic English-language articles from newspapers in Pakistan (328) were sourced from LexisNexis and a sub-sample of Urdu-language electronic articles (12) were identified through internet searches. The articles were published between 2015 and 2020 and included claims/estimates relating to ITT, which were coded to identify cited data sources. Changes in media coverage before and after Pakistan's annual budget announcements were explored via Wilcoxon signed rank and Poisson regression tests. Of the 357 claims/estimates analyzed, 66 (20%) were industry-funded. The most prevalent sources were national government bodies (36.6%) and tobacco companies or their representatives (15.1%). Wilcoxon signed-rank and Poisson regression tests on the frequency of English-language articles both created a p-value of < .05 for the frequency of relevant articles between the months of April and May, compared to the other months, indicating statistical significance. There was a statistically significant increase in the number of English-language articles featuring claims/estimates relating to Pakistan's ITT in the months leading up to the annual budget each year. The government should consider measures to improve transparency standards within media coverage and promote factcheck journalism to safeguard against industry tactics to manipulate public discourses. This paper is, to the best of our knowledge, the largest exploration of the use of data sourced from the tobacco industry within a country's media that has been undertaken to date, utilizing a team of seven coders across the United Kingdom and Pakistan. Our findings reveal weaknesses within media coverage of ITT in Pakistan, both in English and Urdu language publications. We encourage the government to consider new standards to enhance transparency and promote factcheck journalism within media coverage in the country.

Temperature sensitivity of the mineral permafrost feedback at the continental scale.

Oxidative weathering of sulfide minerals in sedimentary rocks releases carbon dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere. In permafrost zones, this could be a positive feedback on climate change if it increases with warming, yet sulfide oxidation rates and their temperature response remain unknown over large spatial and temporal scales. We analyze a 60-year sulfate concentration dataset from catchments across the Mackenzie River Basin. Sulfate fluxes increased by 45% in the mainstem with 2.3°C of warming, and the temperature sensitivity suggests that continental-scale CO2 fluxes could double by 2100. The largest increases occur in catchments with geomorphic settings which act to rapidly expose rocks through physical weathering and thermokarst processes. Comparisons with a weathering model suggest that warming can increase reaction rates, and changes in the exposure of minerals with warming are also required. Future warming across vast Arctic landscapes could further increase sulfide oxidation rates and affect regional carbon cycle budgets.

Electoral Cycles in Fiscal Rules: International Empirical Evidence

Abstract Using panel data from 99 countries over the period of 1985–2020, this study aims to uncover that fiscal rules work in electoral cycles. The results show that fiscal rules are less likely to be implemented in the pre-election year. We also find that this loosening in fiscal rules is especially prominent in cases when the incumbent political party can wield significant political power, where countries are less developed economically and politically, and where the management of fiscal rules is more likely to be exposed to discretionary interventions. Our findings are aligned with the opportunistic political budget cycles, in which politicians exploit fiscal policies and systems to serve their own political incentives. These results suggest that even fiscal rules, which are designed to prevent political pressure, are also subject to political process. (JEL codes: D72, D78, E32, E62, H11, and H60).

Do Fiscal Rules Tame the Political Taxation Cycles under Authoritarian Regimes: Evidence from China’s New Budget Law

Political budget cycles (PBCs) in Western democracies have been extensively examined. Yet, few studies have explored whether there exists a local political budget cycle under authoritarian regimes. Moreover, the question of whether fiscal rules effectively tame the political taxation cycles remains. Unlike previous studies, we bring the “business” back into the study of political “business” cycles. Using firm tax payments data in China, we confirm the presence of political cycles in local tax collection behaviors under the authoritarian system. However, in contrast to the fiscal manipulation behaviors during and before political elections in Western democracies, Chinese local leaders engage in opportunistic taxation behaviors in the early years after the Provincial Congress of the Communist Party (PCCP) when there are local leaders’ elections. The political taxation cycles disappeared following the implementation of China’s new budget law in 2015, demonstrating the effectiveness of fiscal rules in taming local political budget cycles in authoritarian regimes. This research extends the existing PBC theory to the context of non-Western democracies based on micro-level evidence.

How does Public Financial Management (PFM) influence health system efficiency: A scoping review.

Effective Public Financial Management (PFM) approaches are imperative in the quest for efficiency in health service delivery. Reviews conducted in this area have assessed the impact of PFM approaches on health system efficiency but have left out the mechanisms through which PFM influences efficiency. This scoping review aims to synthesize evidence on the mechanisms by which PFM influences health system efficiency. We searched databases of PubMed and Google Scholar and websites of the World Health Organization (WHO), World Bank and Overseas Development Institute (ODI) for peer-reviewed and grey literature articles that provided data on the relationship between PFM and health system efficiency. Three reviewers screened the articles for eligibility with the inclusion criteria. Data on PFM and health system efficiency was charted and summarized. We then reported the mechanisms by which PFM influence efficiency. PFM processes and structures influence health system efficiency by influencing; the alignment of resources to health system needs, the cost of inputs, the motivation of health workers, and the input mix. The entire budget process influences health system efficiency. However, most of the findings are drawn from studies that focused on aspects of the budget process. Studies that look at PFM in totality will help explore other cross-cutting issues within sections of the budget cycle; they will also bring out the relationship between the different phases of the budget cycle.

The influence of politicians' sex on political budget cycles: An empirical analysis of Spanish municipalities

AbstractDoes a politician's sex influence political budget cycles (PBCs)? We answer this question using a sample of Spanish municipalities from the Madrid region for the period 2010–2019. The Madrid region has a homogenous set of budget rules that allow consistent categorization of budget expenditure items as either “mandatory” or “non‐mandatory” public services. After differentiating between smaller and larger municipalities, gender influence is studied along two dimensions: the mayor's sex and the share of women in government. Our findings include, in regard to mandatory spending in smaller municipalities, that gender‐balanced governments induce PBCs. In larger municipalities, when the share of women in government is above 60%, electoral spending is increased by up to 10% of an average municipal budget for mandatory spending, and up to 2.2% for non‐mandatory. These findings are generally supported in a mixed‐gender close election analysis.

Pork barrel spending: The missing link between electoral clientelism and political budget cycles

Pork barrel spending used in the political budget cycles literature via a preference approach is identified as the link tying clientelism to political budget cycles. This paper looks at the supply and demand sides of electoral clientelism using the case study of shipyards in Croatia. The strategic, symbolic and everyday importance of the shipbuilding industry in Croatia is evident to the general public, but even more so to politicians. This paper examines the supply side – whether incumbents increase central budget funds (state guarantees) in election years (pork barrel spending) toward shipyards in Pula, Rijeka, Kraljevica, Trogir and Split – and the demand side – whether voters reward incumbents who engage in these pork barrelling practices. The theoretical foundations of the paper are based on the literature on clientelism, political budget cycles and the political economy of fiscal policy. Panel data analysis conducted on a sample of 5 shipyards over the 2001-2022 period confirms the existence of pork barrelling but does not confirm voters’ reactions to them. The empirical exercise identified the share of shipyard workers in the manufacturing industry at the county level as the main mechanism of electoral clientelism in Croatia.

Strategy for Increasing the Absorption of Revenue Sharing Fund of Reforestation Fund in East Kalimantan Province Government

Revenue sharing fund of reforestation fund (DBH DR) is one source of regional revenue from natural resources. However, since distributed to provinces in 2017, they have problems every years in absorbing this funds. In 2017-2019, there is still remaining funds of 1.4 trillion from the 2.47 trillion has distributed to the provinces. This study aims to analyze the policies and implementation of DBH DR, as well as identify the factors that influence the absorption of the budget based on stakeholder perceptions. The survey was conducted with key stakeholders in East Kalimantan Province, Ministries and the community to find out their perceptions of program implementation and was analyzed using the NVivo 12 application. Based on research, technical regulations issued by the central government have not accommodated regional needs. The planning time for DBH DR is not in accordance with the regional planning and budgeting cycle, resulting in adjustments and delays in the activities implementation. The strategy is synchronization of DBH DR policies or regulations with regional planning and budgeting cycles, expanding the use of DBH DR according to regional needs, and capacity building for local government officials on technical regulations.

The political budget cycle in local government finance: a balance sheet approach on the example of cities with poviat rights

The aim of this paper is to carry out an empirical verification of the occurrence of the political cycle in cities with poviat rights in Poland. Current challenges of local financial management, previous results of national and international research, and threats associated with various types of risks, including political risks, are the motivation for addressing this topic in the paper. The research was conducted using panel data analysis, and its results indicate the existence of a political budget cycle, the effects of which are reflected in the asset and financial situation of cities. The study used balance sheet data, which significantly distinguishes it from previous studies, both domestic and foreign. The results allow us to conclude that balance sheet information should find wider application in monitoring the security and stability of local government finances in Poland.

Wage bargaining structure and political budget cycles: A policy game approach

Utilizing a panel dataset from OECD countries, this study unveils new evidence suggesting that the centralization of wage bargaining plays a significant role in mitigating Political Budget Cycles. To explain this empirical finding, the paper introduces a political economy model based on a policy game framework, encompassing three key agents: (i) an opportunistic government that decides on the level of budget deficits with the objective of enhancing its reelection prospects, (ii) workers/voters who decide on their sectoral affiliations, and (iii) unions that independently negotiate wages with firms. In this model, the opportunistic government has an incentive to run a budget deficit to favor the median voter, who is affiliated with non-tradable sectors. The mechanism emerges from the impact of debt-financed public spending on relative prices, and consequently, on relative wages between non-tradable and tradable sectors. Wage centralization mitigates the political incentive of opportunistic governments by attenuating the responsiveness of sectoral wages to sectoral prices, thereby pushing down budget deficits towards a socially more optimal level.

Detection and Energy Dissipation of ULF Waves in the Polar Ionosphere: A Case Study Using the EISCAT Radar

AbstractUltra‐low frequency (ULF) waves transfer energy and momentum into the ionosphere‐thermosphere system. To quantify this energy, this paper first presents a new method to quantitatively detect ULF waves in Incoherent Scatter Radar (ISR) data based on 2D fast‐Fourier transforms and subsequent reconstruction of the wave. In parallel with other data sets, including optical, magnetometer, satellite, and models, we present the first full ionospheric energy dissipation rates for a ULF wave, split into electromagnetic (EM) and kinetic fluxes. The EM energy deposition is calculated from the use of the Poynting theorem, looking at Joule and frictional heating rates, where both rates show the same order of magnitude (1.24 × 1013 and 7.3 × 1012 J) respectively when integrated over the wave lifetime of 2 hr 15 min and an area of 4° magnetic latitude × 74° magnetic longitude. However, contrary to the common assumption that the EM flux is dominant, we determined the kinetic flux, to be almost equal in magnitude (8.7 × 1012 J). This indicates that previous papers might have underestimated the total energy dissipation by ULF waves. Compared to the substorm energy budget, we find that locally, the ULF wave event studied here makes up approximately 10% of a typical substorm cycle budget.

Budgetary Cycle and late accountability: diagnosis regarding the political judgment of government financial statements within the scope of the States

The normative scenario configured by the 1988 Constitution, in matters of public finances, reveals a dynamic structured based on the notion of budget cycle. However, the materialization of the processes that make up this cycle is permeated by decision-making operated from a perspective of supervision of social bodies and institutionalized control. In this sense, the theoretical framework regarding horizontal accountability emerges, according to O'Donnell's (1998) categorization, which translates in the issuance of the preliminary opinion by the Audit Courts and the subsequent political judgment issued of Parliament. Having as its object of work the temporal profile of the political judgment of government accounts, this paper proposes to investigate the existence of empirical distortions concerning the process of assessment and judgment of the accounts of the head of the Executive Branch of the States, and where possible delays arise – whether in the assessment and sending of the preliminary opinion by the accounting body or in the processing of the document in the legislative houses. Therefore, in methodological terms, for the purpose of articulating the diagnosis on a legal-exploratory basis, we opted for a sample selection stratified into subgroups referring to the five historically recognized regions, choosing the most populous federated entity in each region as a critical case for analysis, which takes place through the mobilization of qualitative data, extracted from primary sources (legislative decrees, draft legislative decrees and previous opinions), with a documentary analytical focus, taking as a focus the period referring to the accounts from 2010 to 2020.

Why is child protection in many African countries perennially underfunded? - A political economy perspective

BackgroundAt a time when many children suffer from various kinds of abuse, child protection is chronically under-funded in government budgets. Whether a government decides to increase or cut spending on health, education, child protection and other issues boils down to political choice, which is influenced by social, economic, and political realities within which decisions on resource mobilization and allocation are made. ObjectivesExplore how political economy dynamics influence decisions on public spending on child protection in Africa. Participantsand Setting: 192 key informants selected through stratified and purposive sampling including government officials, academics, and civil society organizations from Botswana, Kenya, South Sudan, and Zimbabwe. The country selection reflects the different levels of fragility. MethodsUsing a multi-disciplinary conceptual framework, the study entailed document review, participant observation and in-depth interviews guided by an-open ended interview guide. The study applied a qualitative analysis methodology to identify common trends and themes. ResultsThe under-prioritization of child protection in budgeting is a consequence of a mosaic of political economy dynamics including prevailing socio-cultural and legal constructions of childhood, fiscal politics throughout the budget cycle, how the state is structured, and power exercised to drive national development. ConclusionsInstead of viewing under prioritization of child protection in government budgets as a purely technical problem, child-focused organizations should do some soul-searching and be intentional in seeking to understand and to navigate the politics and economics of public budgeting which influence decisions, if they are to trigger positive changes in government spending on child protection.

A global surface CO2 flux dataset (2015–2022) inferred from OCO-2 retrievals using the GONGGA inversion system

Abstract. Accurate assessment of the size and distribution of carbon dioxide (CO2) sources and sinks is important for efforts to understand the carbon cycle and support policy decisions regarding climate mitigation actions. Satellite retrievals of the column-averaged dry-air mole fractions of CO2 (XCO2) have been widely used to infer spatial and temporal variations in carbon fluxes through atmospheric inversion techniques. In this study, we present a global spatially resolved terrestrial and ocean carbon flux dataset for 2015–2022. The dataset was generated by the Global ObservatioN-based system for monitoring Greenhouse GAses (GONGGA) atmospheric inversion system through the assimilation of Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) XCO2 retrievals. We describe the carbon budget, interannual variability, and seasonal cycle for the global scale and a set of TransCom regions. The 8-year mean net biosphere exchange and ocean carbon fluxes were −2.22 ± 0.75 and −2.32 ± 0.18 Pg C yr−1, absorbing approximately 23 % and 24 % of contemporary fossil fuel CO2 emissions, respectively. The annual mean global atmospheric CO2 growth rate was 5.17 ± 0.68 Pg C yr−1, which is consistent with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) measurement (5.24 ± 0.59 Pg C yr−1). Europe has the largest terrestrial sink among the 11 TransCom land regions, followed by Boreal Asia and Temperate Asia. The dataset was evaluated by comparing posterior CO2 simulations with Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) retrievals as well as Observation Package (ObsPack) surface flask observations and aircraft observations. Compared with CO2 simulations using the unoptimized fluxes, the bias and root mean square error (RMSE) in posterior CO2 simulations were largely reduced across the full range of locations, confirming that the GONGGA system improves the estimates of spatial and temporal variations in carbon fluxes by assimilating OCO-2 XCO2 data. This dataset will improve the broader understanding of global carbon cycle dynamics and their response to climate change. The dataset can be accessed at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8368846 (Jin et al., 2023a).

Can fiscal transparency mitigate political budget cycles?

Can fiscal transparency mitigate political budget cycles?

The Political Budget Cycle: Evidence from Indian Municipal Corporation Elections

The political budget cycle (PBC) theory deals with increased spending or decreased revenue collection, or a combination of both, on the verge of an election by the incumbent government to retain office. Empirical verification of the PBC theory at the subnational local government level is scarce in the literature. Subnational local governments are more prominent in population and budget for a country like India. This study takes into account 34 municipal corporations in India to examine the PBC theory and find strong evidence of politically motivated cycles on the budget expenditure and revenue front. Notably, the more visible expenditure on welfare schemes shows increased spending during an election period. On the revenue side, this study also finds evidence in support of the PBC theory. Indian municipal corporations are creating ‘welfare’ and ‘infrastructure’ cycles during the election period to gain political profit and are validating the ‘visibility’ and ‘targetability’ hypotheses described in the literature. This study is the first attempt to trace the presence of the PBC at the subnational local government level in India.

Political determinants of COVID-19 restrictions and vaccine rollouts: The case of regional elections in Italy and Spain

The COVID-19 pandemic is one of the most significant public health crises in modern history, with considerable impacts on the policy frameworks of national governments. In response to the pandemic, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and mass vaccination campaigns have been employed to protect vulnerable groups. Through the lens of Political Budget Cycle (PBC) theory, this study explores the interplay between incumbent electoral concerns and political dynamics in influencing the implementation of NPIs and vaccination rollout within the administrative regions of Italy and Spain during the period spanning June 2020 to July 2021. The results reveal that incumbents up for the next scheduled election are 5.8 % more likely to increase the stringency of containment measures than those that face a term limit. The findings also demonstrate that the seats of the incumbent and coalition parties in parliament and the number of parties in the coalition have a negative effect on both the efficiency of the vaccination rollout and the stringency of NPIs. Additionally, the competitiveness of the election emerges as an important predictor of the strictness of NPIs. Therefore, our results suggest that incumbents may strategically manipulate COVID-19 policy measures to optimize electoral outcomes. The study underscores the substantive influence of political incentives, competitive electoral environments, and government coalitions on policy formulation during health emergencies.

Playing politics with traffic fines: Sheriff elections and political cycles in traffic fines revenue

AbstractThe political budget cycle theory has extensively documented how politicians manipulate policies during election years to gain an electoral advantage. This paper focuses on county sheriffs, crucial but often neglected local officials, and investigates their opportunistic political behavior during elections. Using a panel data set covering 57 California county governments over four election cycles, we find compelling evidence of traffic enforcement policy manipulation by county sheriffs during election years. Specifically, a county's per capita traffic fines revenue is 30% lower in the election than in nonelection years. The magnitude of the political cycle intensifies when an incumbent sheriff runs for reelection or an election is competitive. Our findings contribute to the political budget cycle theory and provide timely insights into the ongoing debate surrounding law enforcement reform and local governments’ increasing reliance on fines and fees revenue.

It's time to broaden what we consider a 'blue carbon ecosystem'.

Photoautotrophic marine ecosystems can lock up organic carbon in their biomass and the associated organic sediments they trap over millennia and are thus regarded as blue carbon ecosystems. Because of the ability of marine ecosystems to lock up organic carbon for millennia, blue carbon is receiving much attention within the United Nations' 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development as a nature-based solution (NBS) to climate change, but classically still focuses on seagrass meadows, mangrove forests, and tidal marshes. However, other coastal ecosystems could also be important for blue carbon storage, but remain largely neglected in both carbon cycling budgets and NBS strategic planning. Using a meta-analysis of 253 research publications, we identify other coastal ecosystems-including mud flats, fjords, coralline algal (rhodolith) beds, and some components or coral reef systems-with a strong capacity to act as blue carbon sinks in certain situations. Features that promote blue carbon burial within these 'non-classical' blue carbon ecosystems included: (1) balancing of carbon release by calcification via carbon uptake at the individual and ecosystem levels; (2) high rates of allochthonous organic carbon supply because of high particle trapping capacity; (3) high rates of carbon preservation and low remineralization rates; and (4) location in depositional environments. Some of these features are context-dependent, meaning that these ecosystems were blue carbon sinks in some locations, but not others. Therefore, we provide a universal framework that can evaluate the likelihood of a given ecosystem to behave as a blue carbon sink for a given context. Overall, this paper seeks to encourage consideration of non-classical blue carbon ecosystems within NBS strategies, allowing more complete blue carbon accounting.