Budget Cycle Research Articles

When do more selfish politicians manipulate less, not more?

We model the political manipulation of deficits in a political budget cycle model. Assuming that a share of voters suffers from debt illusion the incumbent can increase her re-election chances by expanding government spending. However, the optimal manipulation may exceed the amount necessary to maximize re-election chances (over-manipulation) if the deficit is not very costly (low repayment obligation). Then, more selfish politicians (higher ego rents and, therefore, increased re-election motivation) reduce the over-manipulation. Conversely, “excessive” spending may wrongly be interpreted as opportunistic government manipulation. Theoretical results are supported empirically, with very robust evidence in a sample of 87 democracies.

CO2 Ocean Bistability on Terrestrial Exoplanets.

Cycling of carbon dioxide between the atmosphere and interior of rocky planets can stabilize global climate and enable planetary surface temperatures above freezing over geologic time. However, variations in global carbon budget and unstable feedback cycles between planetary sub-systems may destabilize the climate of rocky exoplanets toward regimes unknown in the Solar System. Here, we perform clear-sky atmospheric radiative transfer and surface weathering simulations to probe the stability of climate equilibria for rocky, ocean-bearing exoplanets at instellations relevant for planetary systems in the outer regions of the circumstellar habitable zone. Our simulations suggest that planets orbiting G- and F-type stars (but not M-type stars) may display bistability between an Earth-like climate state with efficient carbon sequestration and an alternative stable climate equilibrium where CO2 condenses at the surface and forms a blanket of either clathrate hydrate or liquid CO2. At increasing instellation and with ineffective weathering, the latter state oscillates between cool, surface CO2-condensing and hot, non-condensing climates. CO2 bistable climates may emerge early in planetary history and remain stable for billions of years. The carbon dioxide-condensing climates follow an opposite trend in pCO2 versus instellation compared to the weathering-stabilized planet population, suggesting the possibility of observational discrimination between these distinct climate categories.

Mercury Uptake, Accumulation, and Translocation in Roots of Subtropical Forest: Implications of Global Mercury Budget.

Plant roots are responsible for transporting large quantities of nutrients in forest ecosystems and yet are frequently overlooked in global assessments of Hg cycling budgets. In this study, we systematically determined the distribution of total Hg mass and its stable isotopic signatures in a subtropical evergreen forest to elucidate sources of Hg in plant root tissues and the associated translocation mechanisms. Hg stored in roots and its isotopic signatures show significant correlations to those found in surrounding soil at various soil depths. The odd mass-independent fractionation (MIF) of root Hg at a shallow soil depth displays a -0.10‰ to -0.50‰ negative transition compared to the values in aboveground woody biomass. The evidence suggests that root Hg is predominantly derived from surrounding soil, rather than translocation of atmospheric uptake via aboveground tissues. The cortex has a more negative mass-dependent fractionation (MDF) of -0.10‰ to -1.20‰ compared to the soil samples, indicating a preferential uptake of lighter isotopes by roots. The similar MDF and odd-MIF signals found in root components imply limited Hg transport in roots. This work highlights that Hg stored in plant roots is not a significant sink of atmospheric Hg. The heterogeneous distribution of Hg mass in roots of various sizes represents a significant uncertainty of current estimates of Hg pool size in forest ecosystems.

Dust sources in Westernmost Asia have a different geochemical fingerprint to those in the Sahara

Dust is an important component of Earth's climate system, directly affecting the global radiation budget and hydrological cycle. The interaction of aerosols with clouds and its impact on regional and global energy budgets remains one of the largest sources of uncertainty in climate model predictions. Records of terrigenous dust accumulation in geological archives also provide a potentially powerful way to assess past changes in hydroclimate. Western Asia, including the Arabian Peninsula, is second only to the Saharan Desert in contributing dust to the global atmosphere. Yet, while satellite-derived maps of dust source activation frequency (DSAF) provide an increasingly granular understanding of the different dust sources within these regions today, our ability to fingerprint their windblown contributions to geological archives is rudimentary, severely limiting the use of dust-based records to reconstruct past changes in continental hydroclimate. A main limitation is a poor understanding of the mineralogical and geochemical composition of the bedrock geology and, more importantly, of the readily deflated unconsolidated sediments in these regions. Here we use published data to produce a DSAF map, centred on the Arabian Peninsula and extending from North Africa to Western Asia (∼40-10 °N; ∼25–65 °E), and we present new radiogenic isotope (Sr and Nd) data from unconsolidated surface sediment samples at active dust-producing sites. We combine our new Sr and Nd data with sparse data on sediments from the literature and the DSAF data to define three new preferential dust source areas (PSAs) in Westernmost Asia: (i) the central belt of the Arabian Peninsula, (ii) the Southern Levant and (iii) Mesopotamia. All three of these PSAs are geochemically distinct from Saharan dust sources. Long-range sediment transport by the Blue Nile and its tributaries, and the Tigris-Euphrates river systems exerts a strong influence on the geochemical fingerprints of dust sources in the Eastern Sahara and Mesopotamia, respectively. The isotopic signature of active dust sources in the central belt of the Arabian Peninsula shows only modest correspondence to underlying bedrock geology suggesting wide scale mixing by aeolian transport internally and/or a weak imprint of palaeo humidity (e.g. localized river reactivation) on dust source composition in comparison to the Eastern Sahara. Our results provide surer foundations for fingerprinting the sources of continental dust accumulating in marine, lacustrine, speleothem and ice archives, an important step in improving our understanding of Quaternary rainfall climate in arguably the most water-stressed region on Earth.

Do Regional Heads Utilize Capital Expenditures, Grants, and Social Assistance in the Context of Elections?

This study empirically analyzes the alleged existence of political budget cycles in Indonesian local governments. Using panel data, this quantitative study concentrates on capital expenditures, grant expenditures, and social assistance expenditures in the election year and the year before the election. The purposive sampling method is used to take the sample—a local government that experienced two election cycles from 2012 to 2018. The sample consists of 1306 observational data points on capital expenditures and grants, and 636 observational data points on social assistance. The study tests its hypothesis using multiple regression analysis. The results indicate that the election year negatively affects capital expenditures, positively affects grants, and has no effect on social assistance. The year before the election negatively affects capital expenditures, but positively affects grants and social assistance. The incumbent positively affects social assistance but does not affect capital expenditures and grants. Transfers have a negative effect on capital expenditures, a positive effect on grants, and no effect on social assistance. The interactions of the election year and year before the election with the incumbent is not proven in this study.

Implementation and initial calibration of carbon-13 soil organic matter decomposition in the Yasso model

Abstract. Soils account for the largest share of carbon found in terrestrial ecosystems, and their status is of considerable interest for the global carbon cycle budget and atmospheric carbon concentration. The decomposition of soil organic matter depends on environmental conditions and human activities, which raises the question of how permanent are these carbon storages under changing climate. One way to get insight into carbon decomposition processes is to analyse different carbon isotope concentrations in soil organic matter. In this paper we introduce a carbon-13-isotope-specific soil organic matter decomposition add-on into the Yasso soil carbon model and assess its functionality. The new 13C-dedicated decomposition is straightforward to implement and depends linearly on the default Yasso model parameters and the relative carbon isotope (13C/12C) concentration. The model modifications are based on the assumption that the heavier 13C atoms are not as reactive as 12C. The new formulations were calibrated using fractionated C, 13C and δ13 measurements from litterbags containing pine needles and woody material, which were left to decompose in natural environment for 4 years. The introduced model modifications considerably improve the model behaviour in a 100-year-long simulation, where modelled δ13 is compared against fractionated peat column carbon content. The work presented here is a proof of concept and enables 13C to be used as a natural tracer to detect changes in the underlying soil organic matter decomposition.

The role of boundary layer height in India on transboundary pollutions to the Tibetan Plateau

The aerosols over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) play an important role in radiative budget and hydrologic cycle over Asia even the northern hemisphere. Adjacent to the major emission sources of air pollutants, transboundary pollutions transported to the TP due to the unique geographical location and climatic characteristics, is an important exogenous driver of multi-layer changes over the TP. The influence of boundary layer height (BLH) in India to the transboundary pollution over the TP from 1980 to 2018 was investigated in the study. Results showed that air pollutants transported to the TP is more efficient within the boundary layer compared with free troposphere. The BLH decreases with the rate of 1.8 m/season in these decades. Moreover, it also has a significant correlation with AOD (-0.4). Accompanied with westerly wind and the topographic forcing in the higher boundary layer, dust particles were uplifted from the northern India to the high altitude. Compared with a higher BLH, the lower BLH is difficult for the long transport of pollutants with weaker westerly wind over the TP and its difference of dust concentration with 0.2 μg m-3 in the upper troposphere. The solar radiation enhancement increases the sensible heat and accelerate the upward of the atmosphere in high BLH events, which uplifts the pollutants accumulated in lower troposphere to higher altitudes and provides thermodynamic conditions for the pollutants transorted to the TP with westerly winds. This study provides confidence for the source, long-term transport of the TP aerosol, and its environmental and climatic impacts on climate systems in the Northern Hemisphere.

Political budget cycles at the municipal level in Slovakia: between structural dependence and electoral exhibitionism

ABSTRACT This paper discusses the strategic composition of Slovak municipalities’ revenues and expenditures and the role of political budget cycles. We found that Slovak municipalities tend to have significantly higher capital revenues and capital expenditures in periods close to municipal elections. We also found strategic management of current expenditures and revenues depending on the time of municipal elections. We have controlled these estimations with several dimensions identified in the literature, from socio-economic variables to political characteristics of the incumbent mayors.

Economic Evaluation Evidence for Resource-Allocation Decision Making: Bridging the Gap for Local Decision Makers Using English Case Studies.

Best-practice economic evaluation methods for health-related decision making at a national level in England are well established, and as a first principle generally involve attempting to maximise the amount of health generated from the health system’s budget. Such methods are applied in ways that are broadly transparent and accountable, often at arm’s length from explicit political pressures. At local levels of decision making, however, decision making is arguably less likely to be applied according to established overarching principles, is less transparent and is more subject to political pressures. This may be owing to a multiplicity of reasons, for example, undesirability/inappropriateness of such methods, or a failure to make the methods clear to local decision makers. We outline principles for economic evaluations and break down these methods into their component parts, considering their relevance in the English local context. These include taxonomies of decision-making frameworks, budgets, costs, outcome, and characterisations of cost effectiveness. We also explore the role of broader factors, including the relevance of assuming a single fixed budget, pressures resulting from political and budgetary cycles and affordability. We consider the data requirements to inform such deliberations. By setting out principles for economic evaluation methods in a clear language aimed at local decision making, a potential role for such methods can be established, which to date has failed to emerge. While the extent to which these methods can and should be applied are a matter for continued debate, the establishment of such a mutual understanding may assist in the improvement of methods for such decision making and the outcomes resulting from their application.

Domestic vs. External Economic Sectors and the Political Process: Insights from Greece

Building on the well-established relationship between economic dynamics and political processes, we focus on the most important element of the political process, namely, general (or national) elections, and look into their effects on public finance and total economic output. In this vein, the present study has three objectives: (i) to investigate political budget cycles in Greece during the period known as the ‘Third Hellenic Republic’ (in Greek, ‘Metapolitefsi’, hereafter THR) since 1974; (ii) to assess whether national elections affect total economic activity in a stabilizing or destabilizing way; and (iii) to examine the possible effects of the external sector of the economy on the budget balance. The empirical findings of our analysis document how the Greek economy was characterized by sharp political budget cycles in correspondence with the THR, exerting a destabilizing effect on the total output of the economy. Performances of the external sector of the economy have significantly affected budget balances in Greece.

Intercomparison of Cloud Vertical Structures over Four Different Sites of the Eastern Slope of the Tibetan Plateau in Summer Using Ka-Band Millimeter-Wave Radar Measurements

The eastern slope of the Tibetan Plateau is a crucial corridor of water-vapor transport from the Tibetan Plateau to Eastern China. This is also a region with active cloud initiation, and the locally hatched cloud systems have a profound impact on the radiation budget and hydrological cycle over the downstream Sichuan Basin and the middle reach of the Yangtze River. It is noteworthy that there is a strong diversification in the characteristics and evolution of the ESTP cloud systems due to the complex terrain. Therefore, in this study, ground-based Ka-band millimeter-wave cloud radar measurements collected at the Ganzi (GZ), Litang (LT), Daocheng (DC), and Jiulong (JL) sites of the ESTP in 2019 were analyzed to compare the vertical structures of summer nonprecipitating clouds, including cloud occurrence frequency, radar reflectivity factor, cloud base height, cloud top height, and cloud thickness. The occurrence frequency exhibits two peaks on the ESTP with maximum values of ~20% (2–4 km) and 15% (7–9 km), respectively. The greatest (smallest) occurrence frequency occurs in the JL (GZ). The cloud occurrence frequency of all sites increases rapidly in the afternoon, and the occurrence frequency of the DC presents larger values at 2–4 km. In contrast, the occurrence frequency in the JL shows another increase from 2000 LT to midnight at 7–11 km. Stronger radar echoes occur most frequently in the LT at 5–7 km, and hydrometeor sizes and phase states vary dramatically in mixed-phase clouds. A small number of radar echoes occur at midnight in the JL. A characteristic bimodality of the cloud base height and top height for single-layer, double-layer, and triple-layer clouds was observed. Clouds show a higher base height in the GZ and higher top height in the JL. The ESTP is dominated by thin clouds with thicknesses of 200–400 m. The cloud base height, top height, and thickness exhibit an increase in the afternoon, and higher top height occurs more frequently from midnight to the next early morning in the JL because of its mountain-valley terrain.

A physical full-factorial scheme for gap-filling of eddy covariance measurements of daytime evapotranspiration

Surface evapotranspiration (ET) is a vital process that connects the water cycle, energy budget, and carbon cycle between the land and atmosphere. ET measurements using the eddy covariance (EC) technique typically encounter large gaps. In this study, a physics-based full-factorial scheme for filling gaps in ET from EC observations is proposed based on the decoupling model of the Penman-Monteith equation, which mechanically interconnects the full range of ET influential factors from the atmosphere, vegetation, and soil. The new method was tested and intercompared with four typical gap-filling methods, i.e., marginal distribution sampling, mean diurnal variation, constant reference evaporative fraction, and constant evaporative fraction, using the data collected at 136 sites from AmeriFlux, FLUXNET, and Tibetan Plateau Data Center over the crop, grass, forest, and other remaining land-cover types. The validation results showed that (1) the full-factorial scheme performed well for filling the artificially randomly generated hourly and daily gaps of the EC-based ET measurements, with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 28.8–96.1 W/m2 for the hourly gaps and an RMSE of 19.9–38.7 W/m2 for the daily gaps, (2) for filling the hourly gaps, the accuracy decreased with the increase in the gap length; for filling the daily gaps, the accuracy decreased with the increase in the gap length at first and then remained almost unchanged, (3) the full-factorial scheme outperformed the four typical methods for filling both the hourly and daily gaps, and (4) all five gap-filling methods presented the best performance at the grass sites, followed by the crop, and the worst performance at the forest sites. In conclusion, the proposed full-factorial scheme can produce reasonable gap-filled hourly and daily ET and is superior to the existing typical gap-filling methods. Therefore, it could be a good candidate for filling the ET gaps in EC measurements.

Do Transnational Rating Agencies “Regulate” National Political Budget Cycles?

Regulatory theory assumes governments constrain undesirable behavior by firms, but the opposite could be true internationally. We show how with credit rating agencies (CRAs) and election-year government borrowing. Political business cycle theory implies that governments sometimes borrow excessively to retain office. Transnational regime theory implies that CRAs regulating global credit allocation can threaten borrowing governments with rating downgrades signaling poor economic stewardship to voters. Analyses of CRA ratings and government borrowing for 63 countries holding 109 elections from 2001-2011 indicate support for both implications: 1) governments increase election-year borrowing; 2) CRA rating downgrades increase government electoral defeat likelihoods; and 3) governments diminish excessive election-year borrowing when CRAs signal higher downgrade likelihoods. Such reverse “regulation” raises new issues for international business research, practice, and public policy.

ONDCP: Improving drug crisis response requires data on nonfatal overdoses

As the number of annual overdose deaths in the U.S. have soared past the 100,000 mark, the gap between the scale of the crisis and the scope of the data systems that are designed to track it has similarly grown. Leaders in the Office of National Drug Control Policy (ONDCP) at the White House have called for the establishment of a national reporting system that encompasses nonfatal overdoses, in a process that they acknowledge will take at least two to three federal budget cycles to execute.

Dryland mechanisms could widely control ecosystem functioning in a drier and warmer world.

Responses of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change have been explored in many regions worldwide. While continued drying and warming may alter process rates and deteriorate the state and performance of ecosystems, it could also lead to more fundamental changes in the mechanisms governing ecosystem functioning. Here we argue that climate change will induce unprecedented shifts in these mechanisms in historically wetter climatic zones, towards mechanisms currently prevalent in dry regions, which we refer to as 'dryland mechanisms'. We discuss 12 dryland mechanisms affecting multiple processes of ecosystem functioning, including vegetation development, water flow, energy budget, carbon and nutrient cycling, plant production and organic matter decomposition. We then examine mostly rare examples of the operation of these mechanisms in non-dryland regions where they have been considered irrelevant at present. Current and future climate trends could force microclimatic conditions across thresholds and lead to the emergence of dryland mechanisms and their increasing control over ecosystem functioning in many biomes on Earth.

Comparison between Physical and Empirical Methods for Simulating Surface Brightness Temperature Time Series

Land surface temperature (LST) is a vital parameter in the surface energy budget and water cycle. One of the most important foundations for LST studies is a theory to understand how to model LST with various influencing factors, such as canopy structure, solar radiation, and atmospheric conditions. Both physical-based and empirical methods have been widely applied. However, few studies have compared these two categories of methods. In this paper, a physical-based method, soil canopy observation of photochemistry and energy fluxes (SCOPE), and two empirical methods, random forest (RF) and long short-term memory (LSTM), were selected as representatives for comparison. Based on a series of measurements from meteorological stations in the Heihe River Basin, these methods were evaluated in different dimensions, i.e., the difference within the same surface type, between different years, and between different climate types. The comparison results indicate a relatively stable performance of SCOPE with a root mean square error (RMSE) of approximately 2.0 K regardless of surface types and years but requires many inputs and a high computational cost. The empirical methods performed relatively well in dealing with cases either within the same surface type or changes in temporal scales individually, with an RMSE of approximately 1.50 K, yet became less compatible in regard to different climate types. Although the overall accuracy is not as stable as that of the physical method, it has the advantages of fast calculation speed and little consideration of the internal structure of the model.

Spaceborne Evidence That Ice-Nucleating Particles Influence High-Latitude Cloud Phase.

Mixed‐phase clouds (MPCs), which consist of both supercooled cloud droplets and ice crystals, play an important role in the Earth's radiative energy budget and hydrological cycle. In particular, the fraction of ice crystals in MPCs determines their radiative effects, precipitation formation and lifetime. In order for ice crystals to form in MPCs, ice‐nucleating particles (INPs) are required. However, a large‐scale relationship between INPs and ice initiation in clouds has yet to be observed. By analyzing satellite observations of the typical transition temperature (T*) where MPCs become more frequent than liquid clouds, we constrain the importance of INPs in MPC formation. We find that over the Arctic and Southern Ocean, snow and sea ice cover significantly reduces T*. This indicates that the availability of INPs is essential in controlling cloud phase evolution and that local sources of INPs in the high‐latitudes play a key role in the formation of MPCs.

The Global Nature of Early‐Afternoon and Late‐Night Convection Through the Eyes of the A‐Train

AbstractCharacterizing macrophysical properties of deep convective systems on a global scale is a precursor to understanding their influence on Earth's Energy Budget and Water Cycle. This study documents the properties of global convective objects (COs) in the early afternoon (1:30 p.m. local time; LT) and overnight (1:30 a.m. LT) measurements from the A‐Train satellite constellation. CloudSat measurements are used to identify convective cores and establish their intensity, while other A‐Train data sets define cloud structure, storm spatial extent, rainfall yield, and radiative effects of each CO. Global distributions of storm characteristics are consistent with previous studies in which the most intense convection is located over tropical land, particularly over the Amazon and Congo Basin, while the largest COs occur over the Maritime Continent. Despite their limited twice‐daily sampling, A‐Train measurements capture that early afternoon convection over tropical land is both more intense and produces heavier rainfall than nighttime land‐based convection, while the day‐night differences are minimal over the tropical ocean. High‐resolution estimates of updraft cores reveal that CO size increases as the number of distinct cores in a CO increases owing to an increase in nonconvective rain and anvil cloud area. Convective objects generally cool the environment, which is strongest over the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, but cooling weakens as the nonconvective cloud fraction increases such that 30% of COs actually exert a net warming effect. These results suggest that A‐Train measurements may capture bulk connections between deep convective cloud features, precipitation, and radiative effects despite a lack of complete diurnal sampling.

소유권 보호와 정치적 예산순환

This study examines the impact of property rights institutions on the political budget cycle. A simple equilibrium model of political budget cycles suggests that property rights institutions implicitly constrain the electoral cycle by making pre-election fiscal manipulation less effective in gaining votes. Using a panel of 64 democracies over the period 1987-2016, we confirm that a political budget cycle is conditional on the strength of property rights institutions. Countries with stronger property rights institutions experience a smaller electoral cycle. Our findings imply that property rights institutions may provide a socially efficient mechanism for protecting the welfare of taxpayers.

Political Budget Cycles in the Context of a Transition Economy: The Case of Albania

There is growing research on the political budget cycles in transition economies whose institutions, economies and societies differ significantly from those of developed countries. New democracies are more vulnerable to political budget (fiscal) cycles. Most studies focus on policy instruments (e.g. fiscal policies) rather than on macroeconomic outcomes. In this paper, we analyse the political budget/fiscal cycle in Albania, a transition post-communist country. We analyse monthly data on the budget balance (deficit). The findings show a strong difference in deficits during pre- and post-election quarters, which do not appear when econometric analysis is replicated on annually collapsed data. This paper highlights the importance of distinguishing between types of elections according to their outcomes. Electoral competitiveness (heightened incumbents’ fear of elections loss), lower management efficiency, incumbent’s carelessness about the budget situation during the mandate of political rivals and higher corruption can all be associated with elections that yield rotation (change of the party/coalition in power), thus resulting in a higher budget deficit.