Sea Ice Breakup Research Articles

Exploring controls on the timing of the phytoplankton bloom in western Baffin Bay, Canadian Arctic

In the Arctic Ocean the peak of the phytoplankton bloom occurs around the period of sea ice break-up. Climate change is likely to impact the bloom phenology and its crucial contribution to the production dynamics of Arctic marine ecosystems. Here we explore and quantify controls on the timing of the spring bloom using a one-dimensional biogeochemical/ecosystem model configured for coastal western Baffin Bay. The model reproduces the observations made on the phenology and the assemblage of the phytoplankton community from an ice camp in the region. Using sensitivity experiments, we found that two essential controls on the timing of the spring bloom were the biomass of phytoplankton before bloom initiation and the light under sea ice before sea ice break-up. The level of nitrate before bloom initiation was less important. The bloom peak was delayed up to 20 days if the overwintering phytoplankton biomass was too low. This result highlights the importance of phytoplankton survival mechanisms during polar winter to the pelagic ecosystem of the Arctic Ocean and the spring bloom dynamics.

Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Seasonal Sea Ice Extent of Hudson Strait, Canada, 1971–2018

The temporal and spatial variation in seasonal sea ice in Hudson Strait is examined using time series and spatial clustering analyses. For the period from 1971 to 2018, a time series of sea ice breakup and freeze-up dates and ice-free season length at twenty-four grid points were generated from sea ice charts derived from satellite and other data. These data were analyzed temporally and spatially. The temporal analyses indicated an unambiguous response to a warming climate with statistically significant earlier breakup dates, later freeze-up dates, and longer ice-free seasons, that were statistically linked to coincident regional surface air temperatures. The rate of change in freeze-up dates and ice-free season length was particularly strong in the early 2000s and less so in the 2010s. There was evidence that breakup date behaviour was not only coincident with regional temperatures but likely with temperature and ice conditions of the previous year. Later freeze-up dates were directly linked to earlier breakup dates using detrended time series. Spatial clustering analysis on the Hudson Strait gridded sea ice data revealed distinctive signatures for Ungava Bay, Frobisher Bay, and for grid points close to the shore and a clear linkage to the underlying circulation of Hudson Strait.

Greening of Svalbard

Svalbard, located between 76°30′N and 80°50′N, is among the regions in the world with the most rapid temperature increase. We processed a cloud-free time-series of MODIS-NDVI for Svalbard. The dataset is interpolated to daily data during the 2000–2022 period with 232 m pixel resolution. The onset of growth, with a clear phenological definition, has been mapped each year. Then the integrated NDVI from the onset (O) of growth each year to the time of average (2000–2022) peak (P) of growth (OP NDVI) have been calculated. OP NDVI has previously shown high correlation with field-based tundra productivity. Daily mean temperature data from 11 meteorological stations are compared with the NDVI data. The OP NDVI values show very high and significant correlation with growing degree days computed from onset to time of peak of growth for all the meteorological stations used. On average for the entire Svalbard, the year 2016 first had the highest greening (OP NDVI values) recorded since the year 2000, then the greening in 2018 surpassed 2016, then 2020 surpassed 2018, and finally 2022 was the year with the overall highest greening by far for the whole 2000–2022 period. This shows a rapid recent greening of Svalbard very strongly linked to temperature increase, although there are regional differences: the eastern parts of Svalbard show the largest variability between years, most likely due to variability in the timing of sea-ice break-up in adjacent areas. Finally, we find that areas dominated by manured moss-tundra in the polar desert zone require new methodologies, as moss does not share the seasonal NDVI dynamics of tundra communities.

Individual diet variability shapes the architecture of Antarctic benthic food webs

Antarctic biodiversity is affected by seasonal sea-ice dynamics driving basal resource availability. To (1) determine the role of intraspecific dietary variability in structuring benthic food webs sustaining Antarctic biodiversity, and (2) understand how food webs and the position of topologically central species vary with sea-ice cover, single benthic individuals’ diets were studied by isotopic analysis before sea-ice breakup and afterwards. Isotopic trophospecies (or Isotopic Trophic Units) were investigated and food webs reconstructed using Bayesian Mixing Models. As nodes, these webs used either ITUs regardless of their taxonomic membership (ITU-webs) or ITUs assigned to species (population-webs). Both were compared to taxonomic-webs based on taxa and their mean isotopic values. Higher resource availability after sea-ice breakup led to simpler community structure, with lower connectance and linkage density. Intra-population diet variability and compartmentalisation were crucial in determining community structure, showing population-webs to be more complex, stable and robust to biodiversity loss than taxonomic-webs. The core web, representing the minimal community ‘skeleton’ that expands opportunistically while maintaining web stability with changing resource availability, was also identified. Central nodes included the sea-urchin Sterechinus neumayeri and the bivalve Adamussium colbecki, whose diet is described in unprecedented detail. The core web, compartmentalisation and topologically central nodes represent crucial factors underlying Antarctica’s rich benthic food web persistence.

Environmental controls and phenology of sea ice algal growth in a future Arctic

The future of Arctic sea ice algae is examined using a regional ocean and sea ice biogeochemical model, with a simulation from 1980 to 2085, considering a future scenario with strong warming. To analyze the impacts of climate change, we computed key dates in the development of sympagic blooms, corresponding to the occurrence of specific growth conditions, and designed diagnostics of ice algal phenology to estimate the onset and peak of blooms. These diagnostics help understand how the timing of light and nutrient availability governs the growth of ice algae and how environmental controls will be altered by climate change across regions. With thinner ice, photosynthetically active radiation in bottom ice will reach levels sufficient for growth earlier, resulting in a better synchrony of high levels of light and nutrients. Increases in snow cover can potentially offset the effect of thinner ice, leading to shorter periods of favorable growth conditions in certain regions. The loss of sea ice cover before the late 21st century only impacts sympagic blooms at lower latitudes, as the timing of sea ice break-up shows little change relative to other key dates at higher latitudes. In response to climate change, the model simulates a modified spatial distribution of blooms, with the emergence of highly productive areas and the loss of blooms in other regions. However, the changes in the timing of growth conditions do not substantially alter the timing of blooms, and both onset and peak ice algae see little change. The simulated lack of sensitivity of bloom onset is attributed to the delay in sea ice freeze-up projected by the model, causing a reduction of overwintering ice algae. The resulting lower initial biomass at the beginning of spring then causes a delay in the development of blooms, offsetting earlier light from thinner ice.

Seasonal and diurnal marine mammal presence in the proposed marine protected area of Southampton Island, Hudson Bay, Nunavut as revealed by passive acoustic monitoring

Marine protected areas contribute to mitigating the effects of human activities on marine ecosystems. The waters of Southampton Island, Nunavut, Canada are under consideration to become a marine protected area, but baseline information of marine mammal presence and habitat use is lacking. This study represents the first passive acoustic monitoring of marine mammals in this area, with data collected in 2018 and 2019. Bioacoustics analyses and generalized linear models were used to investigate species seasonal and temporal vocalization trends; infer behavior and habitat use from vocal cues; and explore vocal activity correlation with sea ice. Over a diel period, bearded seals ( Erignathus barbatus (Erxleben, 1777)) and walruses ( Odobenus rosmarus (Linnaeus, 1758)) were found to increase their vocal activity at night, whereas belugas ( Delphinapterus leucas (Pallas, 1776)) mainly vocalized during daytime. Seasonally, bearded seals were recorded only during their breeding season at sea ice break-up, while walruses vocalized consistently throughout the open-water period outside their breeding season. Beluga vocal trends suggest their use of the area as a migratory corridor during sea ice break-up and freeze-up. Finally, bowhead whales ( Balaena mysticetus Linnaeus, 1758) were recorded later than expected, concurrently with the onset of their mating vocal displays during the fall migration at sea ice freeze-up.

Migration timing and marine space use of an anadromous Arctic fish (Arctic Char, Salvelinus alpinus) revealed by local spatial statistics and network analysis.

The ice-free season (typically late-June to early-October) is crucial for anadromous species of fish in the Arctic, including Arctic Char (Salvelinus alpinus), which must acquire adequate resources for growth, reproduction, and survival during a brief period of feeding in the marine environment. Arctic Char is an important food fish for Inuit communities across the Arctic. Understanding drivers and patterns of migration in the marine environment is thus essential for conservation and management of the species. We used passive acoustic telemetry to characterize migration patterns of 51 individual anadromous Arctic Char during the ice-free season in the marine environment of Coronation Gulf (Nunavut, Canada; 2019-2022). Based on recent genetic evidence, some tagged individuals were likely Dolly Varden (Salvelinus malma malma), a closely related species to Arctic Char. Using local Getis G* and network analysis, we described movement patterns and identified high-use locations in the marine environment. We also related freshwater overwintering location to migration timing and movement pattern. Comparing groups of fish that overwintered in distinct locations, we found: (i) limited evidence that marine movements were associated with overwintering location; (ii) minor differences in use of marine space; and, (iii) timing of freshwater return differed significantly between overwintering groups, and was related to length and difficulty of the migratory pathway in freshwater. Results from both network analysis and local Getis G* revealed that, regardless of overwintering location, coastal locations were highly used by fish. Overwintering locations, and the migratory routes to access overwintering locations, affect the timing of freshwater return. Preference of fish for coastal marine locations is likely due to abundance of forage and patterns in break-up of sea ice. Similarities in marine space use and movement patterns present challenges for managing this and other mixed stock fisheries of anadromous Salvelinus spp. Absences or periods of time when fish were not detected prevented comprehensive assessment of movement patterns. Local Getis G*, a local indicator of spatial association, is a helpful tool in identifying locations associated with absences in acoustic telemetry arrays, and is a complementary method to network analysis.

Majority of Southern Ocean Seasonal Sea Ice Zone Bloom Net Community Production Precedes Total Ice Retreat

AbstractThe Southern Ocean seasonal sea ice zone (SIZ) spring is characterized by sea ice retreat and the development of phytoplankton blooms. Until recently, assessing SIZ blooms and associated net community production (bNCP) has been limited by a lack of under‐ice observations. We relate the timing of phytoplankton growth to the drawdown of surface nitrate and sea ice cover and estimate bNCP from biogeochemical profiling float observations. The onset of biological production closely follows initial sea ice breakup and, on average, 64% of bNCP occurs before total sea ice retreat. This indicates that satellite‐derived estimates largely miss under‐ice production and underestimate SIZ bNCP. Float bNCP estimates range from <1 to >4 mol C m−2 bloom−1, with higher bNCP when sea ice breakup occurs early in the year, and the highest bNCP near topographic features that may increase micronutrient supply. Our results suggest changes in Southern Ocean sea ice will influence future bNCP.

Impact of ship noise on the underwater soundscape of Eclipse Sound in the northeastern Canadian Arctic

Eclipse Sound, in the northeastern Canadian Arctic, has experienced a substantial increase in ship traffic due to growing tourism and industrial development in the region. This study aims to describe the natural soundscape as well as to assess the noise levels associated with shipping. Underwater sound recordings were collected at two locations: Eastern Eclipse Sound (72° 43.730 N, 76° 13.519 W, 670 m) leading to Baffin Bay, and Milne Inlet (72° 15.260 N, 80° 34.205 W, 313 m) situated near the southwest end of Eclipse Sound. To capture the dynamic nature of the soundscape, the data from these two locations were divided into three seasons: late spring, summer, and early fall. These periods were selected to account for the changing contribution of sea ice to the soundscape during the sea ice break-up, two months of open water, and the sea ice freeze-up.By analyzing ship tracks and underwater acoustic recordings, we identified patterns of ship traffic and estimated underwater noise levels due to ships. Noise emitted by ships is quantified by vessel type, including three cargo ship types, passenger ships, pleasure craft, and icebreakers. Individual ship transits through the region introduce transient noise at frequencies from <20 Hz to >20 kHz, with durations lasting from a few minutes to >6 h. The impact of ship noise on the soundscape is significant, resulting in increases in sound levels by 15 to >30 dB when ships are within 10 km and measurable ship noise below 200 Hz at distances of >50 km.

Record low 2022 Antarctic sea ice led to catastrophic breeding failure of emperor penguins

The spring season of 2022 saw record low sea ice extent in Antarctica that persisted throughout the year. At the beginning of December, the Antarctic sea ice extent was tracking with the all-time low set in 2021. The greatest regional negative anomaly of this low extent was in the central and eastern Bellingshausen Sea region, west of the Antarctic Peninsula where, during November, some regions experienced a 100% loss in sea ice concentration. We provide evidence of a regional breeding failure of emperor penguin colonies due to sea ice loss using Sentinel2 satellite imagery. Of the five breeding sites in the region all but one experienced total breeding failure after sea ice break-up before the start of the fledging period of the 2022 breeding season. This is the first recorded incident of a widespread breeding failure of emperor penguins that is clearly linked with large-scale contractions in sea ice extent.

Calving, ice flow, and thickness of outlet glaciers controlled by land-fast sea ice in Lützow-Holm Bay, East Antarctica

Abstract To investigate the mechanisms driving recent changes in outlet glaciers in Antarctica, we measured the glacier front position, flow velocity and surface elevation of five outlet glaciers flowing into Lützow-Holm Bay in East Antarctica. After a steady advance from 2008 to 2015, all the glaciers synchronously retreated by 0.4–6.0 km between 2016 and 2018. The initiation of the retreat coincided with the breakup of land-fast sea ice in Lützow-Holm Bay in 2016, which resulted in the largest sea-ice loss in the region since 1998. Similar flow variations and surface elevation changes were observed near the grounding line of Shirase, Skallen and Telen glaciers. The slowdown in 2011–15 (by 13%) and the speedup in 2016–18 (by 7%) coincided with the respective increase and decrease in surface elevation. Simultaneous retreat and acceleration after the land-fast sea-ice breakup implies that sea ice has a significant influence on glacier dynamics. Thickening/thinning observed near the grounding line was attributed to a reduced/enhanced stretching flow regime during the deceleration/acceleration period. Our results demonstrate that land-fast sea ice affects not only terminus positions, but also the flow speed and ice thickness of the Antarctic glaciers.

Terrestrial Snowmelt as a Precursor to Landfast Sea Ice Break-up in Hudson Bay and James Bay

Numerous studies have been conducted to enhance our understanding of how climate change impacts landfast ice and its break-up in spring or summer. Yet, predictions of break-up timing have proven elusive illusive, and dependent on multiple environmental drivers. In this study, we investigate whether/to what extent snow melt on land adjacent to the coast can serve as a precursor to landfast ice break-up. For the study, we used MODIS snowmelt timing products to explore the pattern of snowmelt across the study area. This was compared against landfast ice break-up dates generated mainly from CIS ice-chart, across the Hudson Bay and James Bay coast. Snowmelt timings recorded across the study area followed the same latitudinal gradient as the landfast ice break-up dates, with almost a 50-day difference between the south and the north snowmelt and ice break-up timings. The data shows that the timing of landfast ice break-up across the Hudson Bay and James Bay region showed significantly stronger correlations with the timing of terrestrial snowmelt, as compared to air temperature thresholds, with an average 17-day gap observed between snowmelt to landfast ice break-up. Based on the observations, we believe snowmelt can be a reliable precursor to landfast ice break-up.

Aerial observations of sea ice breakup by ship waves

Abstract. We provide high-resolution in situ observations of wave-induced sea ice breakup in the natural environment. In order to obtain such data, a drone was deployed from the Canadian Coast Guard ship Amundsen as it sailed in the vicinity of large ice floes in Baffin Bay and in the St. Lawrence Estuary, Canada. The footage recorded during these experiments was used to obtain the floe size distribution (FSD) and the temporal evolution of the breakup. Floe-area-weighted FSDs exhibit a modal shape, indicating that a preferential size is generated by wave-induced breakup. Furthermore, the increase of the mode of the distribution with greater thickness indicates that ice thickness plays a defined role in determining the preferential size. Comparison with relevant theory suggests that the maximum floe size is dictated not only by the ice rigidity but also by the incident wavelength. It was also observed that the in-ice wavelength is smaller than the estimated incident wavelength, suggesting that waves responsible for the breakup obey mass loading dispersion. The fact that the breakup advances almost as fast as the wave energy suggests that fatigue might not have been an important physical component during the experiments. Moreover, the observed breakup extents show that thicker ice can attenuate waves less than thinner ice. Overall, this dataset provides key information on wave-induced sea ice breakup and highlights the potential for better understanding the physics of natural sea ice in response to waves.

Changes in Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Concentration in the Arctic Ocean over the Past Two Decades

With global warming, the decrease in sea ice creates favorable conditions for Arctic activities. Sea surface temperature (SST) is not only an important driven factor of sea ice concentration (SIC) changes but also an important medium of the ocean–atmosphere interaction. However, the response of sea surface temperature to Arctic sea ice varies in different sea areas. Using the optimal interpolated SST data from the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) and SIC data from the University of Bremen, the temporal and spatial characteristics of SST and SIC in the Arctic above 60°N and their relationship are studied, and the melting and freezing time of sea ice are calculated, which is particularly important for the prediction of Arctic shipping and sea ice. The results show that (1) the highest and lowest monthly mean Arctic SST occur in August and March, respectively, while those of SIC are in March and September. The maximum trends of SST and SIC changes are in autumn, which are +0.01 °C/year and −0.45%/year, respectively. (2) There is a significant negative correlation between the Arctic SST and SIC with a correlation coefficient of −0.82. (3) The sea ice break-up occurs on Day of the Year (DoY) 143 and freeze-up occurs on DoY 296 in the Arctic. The melting and freezing processes lasted for 27 days and 14 days, respectively. (4) The Kara Sea showed the strongest trend of sea ice melting at −1.22 d/year, followed by the Laptev Sea at −1.17 d/year. The delay trend of sea ice freezing was the most significant in the Kara Sea +1.75 d/year, followed by the Laptev Sea +1.70 d/year. In the Arctic, the trend toward earlier melting of sea ice is smaller than the trend toward later freezing.

Evaluating Common Characteristics of Antarctic Tropopause Polar Vortices

Abstract Tropopause polar vortices (TPVs) are coherent circulations that occur over polar regions and can be identified by a local minimum in potential temperature and local maximum in potential vorticity. Numerous studies have focused on TPVs in the Arctic region; however, no previous studies have focused on the Antarctic. Given the role of TPVs in the Northern Hemisphere with surface cyclones and other extreme weather, and the role that surface cyclones can play on moisture transport and sea ice breakup, it is important to understand whether similar associations exist in the Southern Hemisphere. Here, characteristics of TPVs in the Antarctic are evaluated for the first time under the hypothesis that their characteristics do not significantly differ from those of the Northern Hemisphere. To improve understanding of Antarctic TPV characteristics, this study examines TPVs of the Southern Hemisphere and compares them to their Northern Hemisphere counterparts from 1979 to 2018 using ERA-Interim data. Common characteristics of TPVs including frequency, locations, lifetimes, strength, and seasonality are evaluated. Results indicate that topography correlates to the geographic distribution of TPVs and the locations of local maxima TPV occurrence, as observed in the Northern Hemisphere. Additionally, TPVs in the Southern Hemisphere exhibit seasonal variations for amplitude, lifetime, and minimum potential temperature. Southern Hemisphere TPVs share many similar characteristics to those observed in the Northern Hemisphere, including longer summer lifetimes. The association of Southern Hemisphere TPVs and surface cyclone frequency is explored, and it appears that TPVs have a precursory role to surface cyclones, as seen in the Northern Hemisphere.

Seasonal and interannual changes in a coastal Antarctic zooplankton community

Seasonal fluctuations are key features of high-latitude marine ecosystems, where zooplankton exhibit a wide array of adaptations within their life cycles. Repeated, sub-seasonal sampling of Antarctic zooplankton is rare, even along the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP), where multidecadal changes in sea ice and phytoplankton are well documented. We quantified zooplankton biomass, size structure, and composition at 2 coastal time-series stations in the northern WAP over 3 field seasons (November-March) with different sea-ice, temperature, and phytoplankton conditions. Seasonal peaks in zooplankton biomass followed weeks after phytoplankton blooms. Biomass of mesozooplankton (0.2-2 mm) was consistent and low, while high biomass of macrozooplankton (&gt;2 mm) occasionally resulted in a size distribution dominated by krill and salps, which appears to be a characteristic phenomenon of the Southern Ocean. Zooplankton composition and size changed between years and from spring to summer as the water column warmed after sea-ice breakup. Seasonal succession was apparent typically in decreasing zooplankton size and a shift to species that are less dependent upon phytoplankton. Mean central abundance dates varied by 54 d across 14 taxa, and specific feeding preferences and life-history traits explained the different seasonal abundance patterns. In all 3 yr, the dominant euphausiid species switched from Euphausia superba in spring to Thysanoessa macrura in late summer. Various taxa shifted their phenology between years in response to the timing of sea-ice breakup and the onset of phytoplankton productivity, a level of natural environmental variability to which they appear resilient. Nevertheless, the limits to this resilience in response to climate change remain uncertain.

Characteristics of ringed seal Pusa hispida (‘natchiq’) denning habitat in Kotzebue Sound, Alaska, during a year of limited sea ice and snow

Sea ice and snow are essential to Arctic ecosystems, playing key roles in the lives of Arctic marine mammals and the Indigenous Peoples who rely on them. Ringed seals Pusa hispida (‘natchiq’ in Iñupiaq) use snow-covered dens on sea ice for pupping, but quantitative information on denning habitat requirements is limited, and it is unknown how changes in snow depth and sea-ice extent will impact ringed seals. Here, an Indigenous Elder Advisory Council and a multidisciplinary group of scientists used knowledge co-production to quantify fine-scale ringed seal habitat selection patterns in Kotzebue Sound, Alaska (USA), during a year of unprecedentedly limited snow and sea-ice availability. Together, we conducted unoccupied aerial vehicle-based surveys during spring 2019 and related seal counts to survey date, bathymetry, and novel proxies for snow depth and surface roughness that we derived from Landsat 8 surface reflectance and validated with on-ice measurements. Generalized additive models showed that counts of seal groups (all age classes) and pups were associated with later survey dates, deeper water, and habitat with bright Landsat 8 pixel values and intermediate pixel variability, which in turn were correlated with deep snow and surface roughness. We observed shallow snow depths, early sea-ice breakup, and high seal densities consistent with the extreme lack of ice available in 2019. Indigenous Knowledge, intentionally woven with scientific data, provided novel and more nuanced understandings of snow and sea-ice conditions for seals. Our results may give a glimpse at future ringed seal habitat and selection in a warming Arctic.

Effects of sea ice retreat and ocean warming on the Laptev Sea continental slope ecosystem (1993 vs 2012)

The central Arctic Ocean is rapidly changing due to amplified warming and sea ice retreat. Nonetheless, it remains challenging to document and decipher impacts on key ecosystem processes such as primary production and pelagic-benthic coupling, due to limited observations in this remote area. Here we investigated environmental changes at the Laptev Sea continental slope (60-3400 m water depth) from the surface to the seafloor, by replicating sample transects two decades apart. Mean break-up of sea ice occurred earlier and mean freeze-up occurred later in 2012 compared to 1993, extending the ice-free period by more than 30 days. On average, observations and model results showed an annual increase in primary production of 30% and more in the study area in 2012. In contrast, calculated and modelled fluxes of particulate organic carbon (POC) to the seafloor were only slightly higher in 2012 and did not extend as far into the deep Laptev Sea as the increase in primary production, possibly due to a more developed retention system. Nevertheless, benthic surveys revealed a substantial increase in phytodetritus availability at the seafloor along the entire transect from the shelf edge to the deep sea. This calls for carbon input by lateral advection from the shelves, additional input from sea ice, and/or a late summer bloom. We also investigated the composition and activity of bacterial communities at the seafloor and potential linkages to the observed environmental changes. While bacterial abundance, biomass and overall community structure showed no systematic differences between the two contrasting years at all depths, extracellular enzymatic activities had increased as a result of higher food availability. This was partly reflected in higher benthic oxygen uptake, indicating a moderate impact on benthic remineralization rates at the time of sampling. Our results show considerable effects of ocean warming and sea ice loss on the ecosystem from the surface ocean to the seafloor in the Laptev Sea, which are likely to continue in the coming decades.

Sea ice breakup and freeze-up indicators for users of the Arctic coastal environment

Abstract. The timing of sea ice retreat and advance in Arctic coastal waters varies substantially from year to year. Various activities, ranging from marine transport to the use of sea ice as a platform for industrial activity or winter travel, are affected by variations in the timing of breakup and freeze-up, resulting in a need for indicators to document the regional and temporal variations in coastal areas. The primary objective of this study is to use locally based metrics to construct indicators of breakup and freeze-up in the Arctic and subarctic coastal environment. The indicators developed here are based on daily sea ice concentrations derived from satellite passive-microwave measurements. The “day of year” indicators are designed to optimize value for users while building on past studies characterizing breakup and freeze-up dates in the open pack ice. Relative to indicators for broader adjacent seas, the coastal indicators generally show later breakup at sites known to have landfast ice. The coastal indicators also show earlier freeze-up at some sites in comparison with freeze-up for broader offshore regions, likely tied to earlier freezing of shallow-water regions and areas affected by freshwater input from nearby streams and rivers. A factor analysis performed to synthesize the local indicator variations shows that the local breakup and freeze-up indicators have greater spatial variability than corresponding metrics based on regional ice coverage. However, the trends towards earlier breakup and later freeze-up are unmistakable over the post-1979 period in the synthesized metrics of coastal breakup and freeze-up and the corresponding regional ice coverage. The findings imply that locally defined indicators can serve as key links between pan-Arctic or global indicators such as sea ice extent or volume and local uses of sea ice, with the potential to inform community-scale adaptation and response.

Wave-triggered breakup in the marginal ice zone generates lognormal floe size distributions: a simulation study

Abstract. Fragmentation of the sea ice cover by ocean waves is an important mechanism impacting ice evolution. Fractured ice is more sensitive to melt, leading to a local reduction in ice concentration, facilitating wave propagation. A positive feedback loop, accelerating sea ice retreat, is then introduced. Despite recent efforts to incorporate this process and the resulting floe size distribution (FSD) into the sea ice components of global climate models (GCMs), the physics governing ice breakup under wave action remains poorly understood and its parametrisation highly simplified. We propose a two-dimensional numerical model of wave-induced sea ice breakup to estimate the FSD resulting from repeated fracture events. This model, based on linear water wave theory and visco-elastic sea ice rheology, solves for the scattering of an incoming time-harmonic wave by the ice cover and derives the corresponding strain field. Fracture occurs when the strain exceeds an empirical threshold. The geometry is then updated for the next iteration of the breakup procedure. The resulting FSD is analysed for both monochromatic and polychromatic forcings. For the latter results, FSDs obtained for discrete frequencies are combined following a prescribed wave spectrum. We find that under realistic wave forcing, lognormal FSDs emerge consistently in a large variety of model configurations. Care is taken to evaluate the statistical significance of this finding. This result contrasts with the power law FSD behaviour often assumed by modellers. We discuss the properties of these modelled distributions with respect to the ice rheological properties and the forcing waves. The projected output can be used to improve empirical parametrisations used to couple sea ice and ocean wave GCM components.