Abstract
In the Arctic Ocean the peak of the phytoplankton bloom occurs around the period of sea ice break-up. Climate change is likely to impact the bloom phenology and its crucial contribution to the production dynamics of Arctic marine ecosystems. Here we explore and quantify controls on the timing of the spring bloom using a one-dimensional biogeochemical/ecosystem model configured for coastal western Baffin Bay. The model reproduces the observations made on the phenology and the assemblage of the phytoplankton community from an ice camp in the region. Using sensitivity experiments, we found that two essential controls on the timing of the spring bloom were the biomass of phytoplankton before bloom initiation and the light under sea ice before sea ice break-up. The level of nitrate before bloom initiation was less important. The bloom peak was delayed up to 20 days if the overwintering phytoplankton biomass was too low. This result highlights the importance of phytoplankton survival mechanisms during polar winter to the pelagic ecosystem of the Arctic Ocean and the spring bloom dynamics.
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