Boundary Layer Parameters Research Articles

Assessing the Surface-Layer Stability over China Using Long-Term Wind-Tower Network Observations

Surface-layer stability is important in many processes, such as in the surface energy budget, atmospheric pollution, and boundary-layer parametrizations. Most previous studies on stability, however, conducted either theoretical or observational investigations at specific sites, thus leaving a gap with regard to the large-scale pattern. Here, wind-speed and temperature observations at multiple heights from the wind-tower network of China are used to estimate low-level stability during the 2009–2016 period. A series of data-quality-control procedures are conducted and data from 170 wind towers with more than 2 years of valid observations are selected. The degree of stability is classified by the Obukhov length, which is derived from the wind speed and temperature at 10 m and 70 m above ground level, combined with information regarding the roughness length. Overall, the occurrence frequency of surface-layer instability exhibits significant temporal and spatial variability, being particularly larger in spring and summer than in autumn and winter. The maximum frequency of summertime instability occurs in the time period 1000–1200 local solar time, approximately 2 h earlier than in autumn. Geographically, the peak instability frequency occurs much earlier in the day in north-west China than in other regions, likely owing to the arid and semi-arid land cover. Also noteworthy is the steady increase in instability frequency observed during the period analyzed here, likely resulting from the reduction in the vertical gradient of wind speed. Our findings call for explicit consideration of stability variability in the wind-energy industry and in fundamental boundary-layer investigations in China.

Effect of Scale-Aware Planetary Boundary Layer Schemes on Tropical Cyclone Intensification and Structural Changes in the Gray Zone

AbstractHorizontal grid spacings of numerical weather prediction models are rapidly approaching O (1 km) and have become comparable with the dominant length scales of flows in the boundary layer; within such “gray-zone”, conventional planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes start to violate basic design assumptions. Scale-aware PBL schemes have been developed recently to address the gray-zone issue. By performing WRF simulations of Hurricane Earl (2010) at sub-kilometer grid spacings, this study investigates the effect of the scale-aware Shin-Hong (SH) scheme on the tropical cyclone (TC) intensification and structural changes in comparison to the non-scale-aware YSU scheme it is built upon. Results indicate that SH tends to produce a stronger TC with a more compact inner core than YSU. At early stages, the scale-aware coefficients in SH gradually decrease as the diagnosed boundary layer height exceeds the horizontal grid spacing. This scale-aware effect is most prominent for the nonlocal subgrid-scale vertical turbulent fluxes, in the non-precipitation regions radially outside of the convective rainband, and from the early stage through the middle of rapid intensification (RI) phase. Both the scale awareness and different parameterization of the nonlocal turbulent heat flux in SH reduce the parameterized vertical turbulent mixing, which further induces stronger radial inflows and helps retain more water vapor in the boundary layer. The resulting stronger moisture convergence and diabatic heating near the TC center account for the faster inner-core contraction before RI onset and the higher intensification rate during the RI period. Potential issues of applying these two PBL schemes in TC simulations and suggestions for improvements are discussed.

Heat transfer and skin-friction in a turbulent boundary layer under a non-equilibrium longitudinal adverse pressure gradient

The experimental data on the effect of weak and moderate non-equilibrium adverse pressure gradients (APG) on the parameters of dynamic and thermal boundary layers are presented. The Reynolds number based on the momentum thickness at the beginning of the APG region was Re** = 5500. The APG region was a slot channel with upper wall expansion angles from 0 to 14°. The profiles of the mean and fluctuation velocity components were measured using a single-component hot-wire anemometer. The friction coefficients were determined using two methods, namely, the indirect Clauser method and the direct method of weighting the lower wall region on a single-component strain-gage balance. The heat transfer coefficients were determined by a transient method using an IR camera. It is noticed that in the pressure gradient range realized the universal logarithmic region in the boundary layer profile is conserved. The values of the relative (divided by the parameters in zero gradient flow at the same value of Re**) friction and heat transfer coefficients, together with the Reynolds analogy factor, are determined as functions of the longitudinal pressure gradient. The values of the relative friction coefficient reduced to cf/cf0 = 0.7 and those of the heat transfer to St/St0 = 0.9. A maximum value of the Reynolds analogy factor (St/St0)/(cf/cf0) = 1.16 was reached for the pressure gradient parameter β = 2.9.

Evaluation of the Surface Wind Field over Land in WRF Simulations of Hurricane Wilma (2005). Part I: Model Initialization and Simulation Validation

AbstractAlthough global and regional dynamical models are used to predict the tracks and intensities of hurricanes over the ocean, these models are not currently used to predict the wind field and other impacts over land. This two-part study performs detailed evaluations of the near-surface, overland wind fields produced in simulations of Hurricane Wilma (2005) as it traveled across South Florida. This first part describes the production of two high-resolution simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, using different boundary layer parameterizations available in WRF: the Mellor–Yamada–Janjić (MYJ) scheme and the Yonsei University (YSU) scheme. Initial conditions from the Global Forecasting System are manipulated with a vortex-bogusing technique to modify the initial intensity, size, and location of the cyclone. It is found possible through trial and error to successfully produce simulations using both the YSU and MYJ schemes that closely reproduce the track, intensity, and size of Wilma at landfall. For both schemes the storm size and structure also show good agreement with the wind fields diagnosed by H*WIND and the Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Analysis. Both over water and over land, the YSU scheme has stronger winds over larger areas than does the MYJ, but the surface winds are more reduced in areas of greater surface roughness, particularly in urban areas. Both schemes produced very similar inflow angles over land and water. The overland wind fields are examined in more detail in the second part of this study.

Evaluation of the Surface Wind Field over Land in WRF Simulations of Hurricane Wilma (2005). Part II: Surface Winds, Inflow Angles, and Boundary Layer Profiles

AbstractThis is the second of a two-part study that explores the capabilities of a mesoscale atmospheric model to reproduce the near-surface wind fields in hurricanes over land. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model is used with two planetary boundary layer parameterizations: the Yonsei University (YSU) and the Mellor–Yamada–Janjić (MYJ) schemes. The first part presented the modeling framework and initial conditions used to produce simulations of Hurricane Wilma (2005) that closely reproduced the track, intensity, and size of its wind field as it passed over South Florida. This part explores how well these simulations can reproduce the winds at fixed points over land by making comparisons with observations from airports and research weather stations. The results show that peak wind speeds are remarkably well reproduced at several locations. Wind directions are evaluated in terms of the inflow angle relative to the storm center, and the simulated inflow angles are generally smaller than observed. Localized peak wind events are associated with vertical vorticity maxima in the boundary layer with horizontal scales of 5–10 km. The boundary layer winds are compared with wind profiles obtained by velocity–azimuth display (VAD) analyses from National Weather Service Doppler radars at Miami and Key West, Florida; results from these comparisons are mixed. Nonetheless the comparisons with surface observations suggest that when short-term hurricane forecasts can sufficiently predict storm track, intensity, and size, they will also be able to provide useful information on extreme winds at locations of interest.

Improving Hurricane Boundary Layer Parameterization Scheme Based on Observations

AbstractFlight‐level data and global positioning system dropwindsonde observations collected from more than 187 flights into 19 tropical cyclones were used to examine why different planetary boundary layer parameterization schemes applied to hurricane models produce diverse forecasts of structure and intensity change. Two popular, yet diverse, physics schemes, namely, the GFS K‐Profile and a 1.5‐order turbulence kinetic energy closure parameterization from NOAA's next‐generation FV3‐based Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System were used. It was found that uncertainty related to some key variables used in the parameterization of the eddy diffusivity, Km, led to diverse solutions. For a given grid resolution, both parameterization schemes converged to a similar forecast state provided those uncertainties could be identified and improved based on observations. This is important for providing a generalized framework for the development and evaluation of parameterization schemes in operational models that resemble reality. This study also indicates that the shape of the Km profile is equally important as its maximum value. The smaller the Km near the surface, the stronger the inflow in the boundary layer.

Sensitivity of an Idealized Tropical Cyclone to the Configuration of the Global Forecast System–Eddy Diffusivity Mass Flux Planetary Boundary Layer Scheme

The intensity and structure of simulated tropical cyclones (TCs) are known to be sensitive to the planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization in numerical weather prediction models. In this paper, we use an idealized version of the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast system (HWRF) with constant sea-surface temperature (SST) to examine how the configuration of the PBL scheme used in the operational HWRF affects TC intensity change (including rapid intensification) and structure. The configuration changes explored in this study include disabling non-local vertical mixing, changing the coefficients in the stability functions for momentum and heat, and directly modifying the Prandtl number (Pr), which controls the ratio of momentum to heat and moisture exchange in the PBL. Relative to the control simulation, disabling non-local mixing produced a ~15% larger storm that intensified more gradually, while changing the coefficient values used in the stability functions had little effect. Varying Pr within the PBL had the greatest impact, with the largest Pr (~1.6 versus ~0.8) associated with more rapid intensification (~38 versus 29 m s−1 per day) but a 5–10 m s−1 weaker intensity after the initial period of strengthening. This seemingly paradoxical result is likely due to a decrease in the radius of maximum wind (~15 versus 20 km), but smaller enthalpy fluxes, in simulated storms with larger Pr. These results underscore the importance of measuring the vertical eddy diffusivities of momentum, heat, and moisture under high-wind, open-ocean conditions to reduce uncertainty in Pr in the TC PBL.

Field‐Aligned Currents in Auroral Vortices

AbstractAuroral bright spots have been observed at Earth, Jupiter, and Saturn in regions that map to the magnetopause boundary layer. It has been suggested that the bright spots are associated with the Kelvin‐Helmholtz (KH) instability. We utilize a quasistatic magnetosphere‐ionosphere coupling model driven by a vortex in the boundary layer to determine how the field‐aligned current structure depends on ionospheric and boundary layer parameters. We compare vortex induced currents with shear‐flow induced currents. We find that the strength of the maximum currents are comparable, but the structure is significantly different. For a vortex, the current and electron precipitation maximize when the vortex size mapped to the ionosphere is approximately 1.5L, where is the auroral scale length, ΣP is the Pedersen conductivity, and κ is the Knight parameter. For a vortex, the current width provides a direct measure of the size, Δ, of the boundary layer structure, while the current width of shear‐flow aurora is generally determined by the larger of Δ or L. For comparison with observations, an event is considered where auroral bright spots in the ionosphere are detected by DMSP SSUSI FUV when KH structures are observed on the dusk flank by THEMIS.

Segregation of Forecast Errors in the Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization Over the State of Odisha and Neighboring Regions in India During Summer Monsoon Season

Planetary boundary layer parametrization (PBL) is a key factor influencing weather forecast skills. This article provides a quantitative illustration of the segregation of forecast errors and their growth arising from different PBLs of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The systematic (root mean square) components of forecast errors arising from four different PBLs of the WRF over the state of Odisha (India) and its surrounding regions are elucidated. Error characterizations are carried out for the forecast lead time up to 96 h (day-4) for two contrasting monsoon seasons, i.e., 2013 (normal) and 2014 (deficit). A total of 1112 simulations are carried out for each initial condition, i.e., May 15 to September 29 for both monsoon seasons using four PBL schemes, i.e., Yonsei University (YSU), Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN), Asymmetric Convective Model version 2 (ACM2), and medium-range forecast (MRF). The overall results suggest the errors in thermodynamical variables (i.e., temperature and relative humidity) are large compared to the dynamical variable (i.e., wind). For the normal monsoon year (i.e., 2013), the MRF and MYNN exhibit the lowest root mean square error (RMSE) of temperature compared to ACM2 and YSU, whereas MRF (MYNN) shows the lowest (highest) error growth at 24–48 h (72–96 h). The deficit year (2014) has a higher temperature error compared to that of the normal monsoon year (2013), which might be due to frequent monsoon break periods. The spatial distribution of wind exhibits the lowest systematic error for MRF with lead time up to 48 h. The subsequent decrease (increase) of convergence (divergence) of error flux over northern Odisha and increase (decrease) of the same over southern Odisha suggests that the error propagation occurs from north to south. In general, both the convergence and divergence of error energy are found to be weak in MRF and MYNN, attributable to the lower error growth rate and hence the smaller systematic errors compared to ACM2 and YSU for both these monsoon seasons. It is also found that the systematic component of the linear (nonlinear) error growth rate is contributed by the physics (dynamics) components of the model. These findings will provide guidance for the model community and operational agencies to make an optimal choice of PBL parameterizations, particularly for the monsoon forecast.

Sensitivity evaluation of the different physical parameterizations schemes in regional climate model RegCM4.5 for simulation of air temperature and precipitation over North and West of Iran

In this research the dynamic downscaling method by Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.5) was used to assess the performance and sensitivity of seasonal simulated North and West of Iran (NI&WI) climate factors to different convection schemes, and transforms the large-scale simulated climate variables into land surface states over the North of Iran (NI) and West of Iran (WI). A 30-year (1986–2015) numerical integration simulation of climate over NI&WI was conducted using the regional climate model RegCM4.5 nested in one-way ERA-Interim reanalysis data. The Grell, Kuo and MIT-Emanuel cumulus convection with Holtslag and University of Washington (UW) planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes were applied in the running of RegCM4.5 to test their capability in simulating precipitation and temperature in winter-spring (January–April) over NI and WI. The results demonstrated that the RegCM4.5 model has a good potential for simulating the variables and trend of surface temperature over the NI and WI region. Magnitude of the model bias for land surface temperature over different regions of Iran varies by convection parameterization schemes. In most cases, the root mean square error between post-processed simulated seasonal average temperature and observation value was less than 1 °C, but there is a systematic “cold bias”. In general, with respect to land surface temperature simulations, a better performance is obtained when using post-processing model’s data with Holtslag PBL-Grell and Holtslag PBL-Kuo configuration schemes, compared to the other simulations, over the NI&WI region. Also, the UW PBL convection schemes show a relatively excellent spatial correlations and normalized standard deviations closer to 1 for thirty-year seasonal land surface temperature anomalies over the entire NI&WI region. However, the simulation accuracy of model for precipitation is not as optimal as for temperature. The dominant feature in model simulations is a dry bias with the largest average value (∼1.04 mm/day) over NI region, while the lowest mean bias precipitation (∼−0.47 mm/day), mainly located in WI region. In the comparison of six configuration convection schemes, the Emanuel scheme has been proven to be the most accurate for simulating winter-spring seasonal mean precipitation over NI&WI region. The accuracy of the scheme also showed great difference in simulated station interpolation of precipitation, which urges the improvement for the simulation capability of spatial distribution of precipitation. In general, for seasonal variation of precipitation, the Emanuel convection with two (Holtslag, UW) PBL configuration schemes outperforms with a good correlation score between 0.7−0.8 and normalized standard deviations closer to 1.

Long-Term Tendencies of Carbon Monoxide in the Atmosphere of the Moscow Megapolis

This paper presents the results of a comprehensive analysis of measurements of CO total content (CO TC) at stations of the Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS), in Moscow and Moscow oblast. Also CO in-situ data obtained from automated stations of the Mosecomonitoring network, satellite monitoring results and information on the parameters of the atmospheric boundary layer in Moscow and the surrounding regions are analyzed. The long-term variability of CO TC and meteorological parameters is investigated, the carbon monoxide accumulation characteristics in calm days in the atmospheric boundary layer are obtained. A decrease in the average annual values ​​of TC CO in 2000–2018 was found in Moscow (–2.56 ± 0.52%/year) and at the Zvenigorod Scientific Station (ZSS) (‒1.15 ± 0.37%/year). However, the rate of decrease in both sites is different in different seasons and periods. After about 2007–2008, the rate of CO TC reduction decreased at both sites. In 2008–2018, at the ZSS, an increase in CO TC was recorded in the summer and autumn months at a rate of about 0.7%/year. An increase in the wind speed in the atmospheric boundary layer of Moscow in different periods of 2000–2018 at a rate of 0.4–1.6%/year has been determined. At the same time, no statistically significant changes in wind speed were found in Kaluga oblast. The recurrence of calm days in Moscow in 2006–2017 decreased (–7.06 ± 3.96%/year) with a decrease in the anthropogenic part of the CO content in the same period (–6.72 ± 3.48%/year). The results indicate the influence of the climatic (meteorological) factor on air quality in Moscow.

Reanalysis Profile Downscaling with WRF Model and Sensitivity to PBL Parameterization Schemes Over a Subtropical Station

Atmospheric profiles are essential in weather prediction, atmospheric research, and satellite data calibration. In this study, we assess the use of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to downscaling NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) reanalysis atmospheric profiles. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to Yonsei University (YSU) and Mellor–Yamada–Janjic (MYJ) Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) parameterization schemes. WRF simulations were carried out using two nested grids with horizontal resolutions of 12 and 3 km. Simulated profiles were evaluated against radiosonde observations in Southern Brazil. Results indicate that WRF can skillfully simulate vertical profiles of water vapor mixing ratio ( q ) and potential temperature ( θ ). The entire profile comparison yielded high correlation coefficients (mostly higher than 0.9), low moist and cold average biases, and overall RMSE (MAE) of 0.84 (0.44) g/Kg and 2.30 (1.61) K for q and θ , respectively. In the lower troposphere (0-3 km), errors are larger for q and lower for θ . Statistically, there is no significant difference in the retrieved profiles on increasing the horizontal resolution. The setting choice is a compromise between spatial detail needs and computational cost. Furthermore, the overall results did not indicate any preferred PBL scheme that outperforms in all case days. The performance depends on the meteorological conditions that prevail in the different cases. The WRF model and even data directly from NCEP CFSv2 reanalysis are useful to represent the vertical structure of the atmosphere when local radiosondes are not available.

Calculation of the three-dimensional turbulent boundary layer in the vessel’s bow and midship area by the integral method

The quality of technical solutions applied in ship design and construction is substantially determined by the validity of viscous flow parameters, especially in the vicinity of thrusters. The influence of shapes on velocity, pressure and turbulence distribution can be assessed by physical experimentation. Along with undeniable advantages, physical modelling has a number of disadvantages: high labour input and cost, limited range of parameters variation (e.g. Reynolds numbers), difficulty in separating the influence of individual factors. Therefore, the development of mathematical models and numerical calculation schemes based on them is extremely relevant. Calculation of friction resistance and calculation of the velocity field in the vicinity of a vessel comes down to the calculation of its boundary layer and trace parameters. Current mathematical models with a planar representation, i.e. working with projections rather than real curves, do not give an accurate description. This has led to the need for a mathematical model that can address all of the required characteristics of a three-dimensional turbulent boundary layer. Both differential and integral methods are used to calculate three-dimensional boundary layers. The model is capable of calculating the characteristics of the spatial boundary layer in the stern and the viscous wake, in the bow and in the middle of the vessel. The model is quite versatile: it has been successfully used both for computing the boundary layer characteristics in the bow and midship area by the integral method based on the thick boundary layer concept, and for computing the turbulent flow in the stern and viscous wake by the differential method based on the partial parabolic concept using the k-ε turbulence model. In this paper we will elaborate on the integral method calculation.

High-resolution Simulation of an Extreme Heavy Rainfall Event in Shanghai Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model: Sensitivity to Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization

In this study, an extreme rainfall event that occurred on 25 May 2018 over Shanghai and its nearby area was simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, with a focus on the effects of planetary boundary layer (PBL) physics using double nesting with large grid ratios (15:1 and 9:1). The sensitivity of the precipitation forecast was examined through three PBL schemes: the Yonsei University Scheme, the Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi Niino Level 2.5 (MYNN) scheme, and the Mellor–Yamada–Janjic scheme. The PBL effects on boundary layer structures, convective thermodynamic and large-scale forcings were investigated to explain the model differences in extreme rainfall distributions and hourly variations. The results indicated that in single coarser grids (15 km and 9 km), the extreme rainfall amount was largely underestimated with all three PBL schemes. In the inner 1-km grid, the underestimated intensity was improved; however, using the MYNN scheme for the 1-km grid domain with explicitly resolved convection and nested within the 9-km grid using the Kain–Fritsch cumulus scheme, significant advantages over the other PBL schemes are revealed in predicting the extreme rainfall distribution and the time of primary peak rainfall. MYNN, with the weakest vertical mixing, produced the shallowest and most humid inversion layer with the lowest lifting condensation level, but stronger wind fields and upward motions from the top of the boundary layer to upper levels. These factors all facilitate the development of deep convection and moisture transport for intense precipitation, and result in its most realistic prediction of the primary rainfall peak.

Sensitivity Study of Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization Schemes for the Simulation of Tropical Cyclone ‘Fani’ Over the Bay of Bengal Using High Resolution Wrf-Arw Model

Comprehensive sensitivity analyses on physical parameterization schemes of WRF-ARW (V3.8.1) model have been carried out for the simulation of Tropical Cyclone (TC) Fani that formed in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and crossed the Bangladesh and Odisha coast of India on 3rd May 2019. Global Forecasting System (GFS) data 1⁰ and 0.25⁰ from National Centre for Environment Prediction (NCEP) is used as initial and lateral boundary conditions. The six different Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) schemes used in this research are YSU, BouLac, TEMF, Shin-Hong, GBM and MRF. The meteorological parameters, which have been studied to identify the effect of PBL during the propagation and movement of TC Fani are Estimated Central Pressure (ECP), Maximum Wind Speed (MWS) at 10m height, average relative humidity (%), temperature (⁰C) and potential temperature (0K) at 2m height, Modified Convective Available Potential Energy (MCAP), average PBL height and average high clouds (%). The area considered for these averages are 82-92 ⁰E and 7-22 ⁰N inside the model domain. The simulated ECP by TEMF scheme are 930, 932, 937, 929, 944 and 932 hPa for the Initial Conditions (ICs) at 0000 UTC of 27, 28, 29, 30 April, and 01 May and 02 May, respectively and observed ECP was 932 hPa. The intensity of pressure fall by the TEMF scheme is similar to that observed up to the time of crossing the land of TC Fani. The MWS simulated by the TEMF scheme is almost similar to that of the observed MWS at 10m height and all other schemes have simulated much lower MWS. The temperature at 2m height is positively correlated with the ECP and MWS at 10m height. The TEMF scheme has simulated maximum high clouds for all ICs and for all through the simulation time. The error was systematic for all PBL schemes for the ICs at 0000 UTC of 30 April at 0.25⁰ and 1⁰ GFS data but the track error was much less for 1⁰ GFS data than that of 0.25⁰ GFS data. The TEMF scheme has simulated the most deviated track and MRF scheme has simulated less deviated track for all through the simulation. The study has shown large variations of track and intensity among the different PBL schemes. The PBL schemes have a major impact on the track and intensity of TC Fani. The intensity simulated by the TEMF scheme is better but the track error is higher than that of other schemes.
 Journal of Engineering Science 11(2), 2020, 1-18

Improvements in one-dimensional grounding-line parameterizations in an ice-sheet model with lateral variations (PSUICE3D v2.1)

Abstract. The use of a boundary-layer parameterization of buttressing and ice flux across grounding lines in a two-dimensional ice-sheet model is improved by allowing general orientations of the grounding line. This and another modification to the model's grounding-line parameterization are assessed in three settings: rectangular fjord-like domains – the third Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (MISMIP+) and Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for plan view models (MISMIP3d) – and future simulations of West Antarctic ice retreat under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)8.5-based climates. The new modifications are found to have significant effects on the fjord-like results, which are now within the envelopes of other models in the MISMIP+ and MISMIP3d intercomparisons. In contrast, the modifications have little effect on West Antarctic retreat, presumably because dynamics in the wider major Antarctic basins are adequately represented by the model's previous simpler one-dimensional formulation. As future grounding lines retreat across very deep bedrock topography in the West Antarctic simulations, buttressing is weak and deviatoric stress measures exceed the ice yield stress, implying that structural failure at these grounding lines would occur. We suggest that these grounding-line quantities should be examined in similar projections by other ice models to better assess the potential for future structural failure.

The decomposition of cloud–aerosol forcing in the UK Earth System Model (UKESM1)

Abstract. Climate variability in the North Atlantic influences processes such as hurricane activity and droughts. Global model simulations have identified aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs) as an important driver of sea surface temperature variability via surface aerosol forcing. However, ACIs are a major cause of uncertainty in climate forcing; therefore, caution is needed in interpreting the results from coarse-resolution, highly parameterized global models. Here, we separate and quantify the components of the surface shortwave effective radiative forcing (ERF) due to aerosol in the atmosphere-only version of the UK Earth System Model (UKESM1) and evaluate the cloud properties and their radiative effects against observations. We focus on a northern region of the North Atlantic (NA) where stratocumulus clouds dominate (denoted the northern NA region) and a southern region where trade cumulus and broken stratocumulus dominate (southern NA region). Aerosol forcing was diagnosed using a pair of simulations in which the meteorology is approximately fixed via nudging to analysis; one simulation has pre-industrial (PI) and one has present-day (PD) aerosol emissions. This model does not include aerosol effects within the convective parameterization (but aerosol does affect the clouds associated with detrainment) and so it should be noted that the representation of aerosol forcing for convection is incomplete. Contributions to the surface ERF from changes in cloud fraction (fc), in-cloud liquid water path (LWPic) and droplet number concentration (Nd) were quantified. Over the northern NA region, increases in Nd and LWPic dominate the forcing. This is likely because the already-high fc there reduces the chances of further large increases in fc and allows cloud brightening to act over a larger region. Over the southern NA region, increases in fc dominate due to the suppression of rain by the additional aerosols. Aerosol-driven increases in macrophysical cloud properties (LWPic and fc) will rely on the response of the boundary layer parameterization, along with input from the cloud microphysics scheme, which are highly uncertain processes. Model grid boxes with low-altitude clouds present in both the PI and PD dominate the forcing in both regions. In the northern NA, the brightening of completely overcast low cloud scenes (100 % cloud cover, likely stratocumulus) contributes the most, whereas in the southern NA the creation of clouds with fc of around 20 % from clear skies in the PI was the largest single contributor, suggesting that trade cumulus clouds are created in response to increases in aerosol. The creation of near-overcast clouds was also important there. The correct spatial pattern, coverage and properties of clouds are important for determining the magnitude of aerosol forcing, so we also assess the realism of the modelled PD clouds against satellite observations. We find that the model reproduces the spatial pattern of all the observed cloud variables well but that there are biases. The shortwave top-of-the-atmosphere (SWTOA) flux is overestimated by 5.8 % in the northern NA region and 1.7 % in the southern NA, which we attribute mainly to positive biases in low-altitude fc. Nd is too low by −20.6 % in the northern NA and too high by 21.5 % in the southern NA but does not contribute greatly to the main SWTOA biases. Cloudy-sky liquid water path mainly shows biases north of Scandinavia that reach between 50 % and 100 % and dominate the SWTOA bias in that region. The large contribution to aerosol forcing in the UKESM1 model from highly uncertain macrophysical adjustments suggests that further targeted observations are needed to assess rain formation processes, how they depend on aerosols and the model response to precipitation in order to reduce uncertainty in climate projections.

Examination of WRF-ARW Experiments Using Different Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterizations to Study the Rapid Intensification and Trajectory of Hurricane Otto (2016)

Hurricane Otto (2016) was characterised by remarkable meteorological features of relevance for the scientific community and society. Scientifically, among the most important attributes of Otto is that it underwent a rapid intensification (RI) process. For society, this cyclone severely impacted Costa Rica and Nicaragua, leaving enormous economic losses and many fatalities. In this study, a set of three numerical simulations are performed to examine the skill of model estimations in reproducing RI and trajectory of Hurricane Otto by comparing the results of a global model to a regional model using three different planetary boundary layer parameterizations (PBL). The objective is to set the basis for future studies that analyse the physical reasons why a particular simulation (associated with a certain model setup) performs better than others in terms of reproducing RI and trajectory. We use the regional model Weather Research and Forecasting—Advanced Research WRF (WRF-ARW) with boundary and initial conditions provided by the Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis (horizontal resolution of 0.5 degrees). The PBL used are the Medium Range Forecast, the Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ), and the Yonsei University (YSU) parameterizations. The regional model is run in three static domains with horizontal grid spacing of 27, 9 and 3 km, the latter covering the spacial extent of Otto during the simulation period. WRF-ARW results improve the GFS forecast, in almost every aspect evaluated in this study, particularly, the simulated trajectories in WRF-ARW show a better representation of the cyclone path and movement compared to GFS. Even though the MYJ experiment was the only one that exhibited an abrupt 24-h change in the storm’s surface wind, close to the 25-knot threshold, the YSU scheme presented the fastest intensification, closest to reality.

Air quality impact of the Northern California Camp Fire of November 2018

Abstract. The Northern California Camp Fire that took place in November 2018 was one of the most damaging environmental events in California history. Here, we analyze ground-based station observations of airborne particulate matter that has a diameter <2.5 µm (PM2.5) across Northern California and conduct numerical simulations of the Camp Fire using the Weather Research and Forecasting model online coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem). Simulations are evaluated against ground-based observations of PM2.5, black carbon, and meteorology, as well as satellite measurements, such as Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) aerosol layer height and aerosol index. The Camp Fire led to an increase in Bay Area PM2.5 to over 50 µg m−3 for nearly 2 weeks, with localized peaks exceeding 300 µg m−3. Using the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) high-resolution fire detection products, the simulations reproduce the magnitude and evolution of surface PM2.5 concentrations, especially downwind of the wildfire. The overall spatial patterns of simulated aerosol plumes and their heights are comparable with the latest satellite products from TROPOMI. WRF-Chem sensitivity simulations are carried out to analyze uncertainties that arise from fire emissions, meteorological conditions, feedback of aerosol radiative effects on meteorology, and various physical parameterizations, including the planetary boundary layer model and the plume rise model. Downwind PM2.5 concentrations are sensitive to both flaming and smoldering emissions over the fire, so the uncertainty in the satellite-derived fire emission products can directly affect the air pollution simulations downwind. Our analysis also shows the importance of land surface and boundary layer parameterization in the fire simulation, which can result in large variations in magnitude and trend of surface PM2.5. Inclusion of aerosol radiative feedback moderately improves PM2.5 simulations, especially over the most polluted days. Results of this study can assist in the development of data assimilation systems as well as air quality forecasting of health exposures and economic impact studies.

Mean Parameters of an Incompressible Turbulent Boundary Layer on the Wind Tunnel Wall at Very High Reynolds Numbers

The mean parameters of a two-dimensional incompressible turbulent boundary layer with zero pressure gradient were measured on the smooth wall of the TsAGI T-128 transonic wind tunnel in the range Reθ = 5.3 × 104–2.9 × 105 velocity profiles, skin friction coefficient, and shape factor. Novel data were obtained in the range Reθ ≈ 2.35 × 105–2.9 × 105. At the maximum Reynolds number, the record value of the von Karman number Reτ ∼1 × 105 was reached and the logarithmic law was maintained up to y+ ≈ 1.3 × 104. The equilibrium state of the boundary layer was estimated using Clauser’s equilibrium parameter, which was G = 6.4–6.8 for high Reynolds numbers. The results of the investigation confirm the conclusions of other studies on the universality of dimensionless velocity profile in the boundary layer outer region. The results were compared with semi-empirical dependencies, direct numerical simulation (DNS) results and the results of other studies performed both on wind tunnel walls and on a flat plate. At high Reynolds numbers the agreement between the shape factor was within ΔH = ± 0.012 (± 1%), with a skin friction coefficient—Δcf= ± 0.00006 (± 3.7%).