Abstract
Hurricane Otto (2016) was characterised by remarkable meteorological features of relevance for the scientific community and society. Scientifically, among the most important attributes of Otto is that it underwent a rapid intensification (RI) process. For society, this cyclone severely impacted Costa Rica and Nicaragua, leaving enormous economic losses and many fatalities. In this study, a set of three numerical simulations are performed to examine the skill of model estimations in reproducing RI and trajectory of Hurricane Otto by comparing the results of a global model to a regional model using three different planetary boundary layer parameterizations (PBL). The objective is to set the basis for future studies that analyse the physical reasons why a particular simulation (associated with a certain model setup) performs better than others in terms of reproducing RI and trajectory. We use the regional model Weather Research and Forecasting—Advanced Research WRF (WRF-ARW) with boundary and initial conditions provided by the Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis (horizontal resolution of 0.5 degrees). The PBL used are the Medium Range Forecast, the Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ), and the Yonsei University (YSU) parameterizations. The regional model is run in three static domains with horizontal grid spacing of 27, 9 and 3 km, the latter covering the spacial extent of Otto during the simulation period. WRF-ARW results improve the GFS forecast, in almost every aspect evaluated in this study, particularly, the simulated trajectories in WRF-ARW show a better representation of the cyclone path and movement compared to GFS. Even though the MYJ experiment was the only one that exhibited an abrupt 24-h change in the storm’s surface wind, close to the 25-knot threshold, the YSU scheme presented the fastest intensification, closest to reality.
Highlights
Southern Central America (i.e., Costa Rica and Panama) is rarely affected by the direct impact of hurricanes [1,2]
This figure reveals that, compared to Global Forecast System (GFS), the regional model simulations better capture the observed location of Otto at the beginning of the simulation period (1200 UTC 23 November)
This behaviour is similar to what was observed in Best Track (BT), and this veer is probably due to friction forces at the surface and the presence of a cold surge from the north during those days
Summary
Southern Central America (i.e., Costa Rica and Panama) is rarely affected by the direct impact of hurricanes [1,2]. The regions where tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic and Caribbean Sea and their usual northeastward trajectories are the two main reasons that prevent these systems from reaching the southern subregion. On 23–25 November 2016, Hurricane Otto formed near the Caribbean coast of Panama and later hit Nicaragua and Costa Rica. National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States of America (USA), Otto was the southernmost hurricane to make landfall in Central America [3]. Nearby northern Costa Rica, observational records show that Hurricane Irene (1971) is the closest landfalling hurricane to Otto. Irene made landfall in southern Nicaragua at about 25–30 nautical miles (n mi) north of Otto’s position [4]. Otto is the only known hurricane to move over
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