Ukrainian Banks Research Articles

Особливості розвитку ринку банківських послуг України: ефект розміру банку та закон Гібрата

Quantitative description of the development of the banking services market is important for making optimal decisions in the regulation of the banking sector. The importance of the question lies in the fact that such a description makes it possible to take into account the transformation of banks, sources of risks, to identify the main trends or regularities in the process of evolution. The aim of this article is to test Gibrat's law as a hypothesis for the development of the banking services market of Ukraine, by an empirical experiment where all existing banks are tracked over time on an annual basis and the distribution of banks by the size of assets or income is constructed annually. The work assumes the possibility of establishing a statistical size (assets or income) distribution of banks with certain average values and variances according to the lognormal distribution of banks. The research methodology is based on statistical analysis and verification of the correspondence of the empirical size distribution of banks to the logarithmically normal one provided by Gibrat's law. The study period covers the banking sector from 2014 to 2023 and includes all operating banks. The information base for the analysis was the annual official reporting data (report on the financial state) of banks, published by the National Bank of Ukraine and on the banks' official websites. The data set defines the assets and income of all banks and each bank separately, annually. It has been proven that Gibrat's law is not fulfilled for banks of Ukraine, the size distributions do not obey the Gaussian distribution law. The rate of growth of banks is not random (as it is assumed by Gibrat's hypothesis). The trend of gradual approximation of income distributions to the lognormal type and the potential possibility of implementation of Gibrat's law for the period of 2022–2023 has been revealed.

КРЕДИТНИЙ РИЗИК У СУЧАСНИХ УМОВАХ

The article carried out scientific research and investigated the problem of the correct interpretation of the concept of "credit risk". The norms of the current legislation of Ukraine regarding the definition of the concept of "credit risk (CR)", which is regulated as the amount of expected losses or damages (EL) for an asset as a result of the debtor’s (counterparty’s) default, have been analyzed. The concepts of "default" and "credit loss" are considered, the National Bank of Ukraine’s assessment of the credit portfolio due to the war is disclosed, the losses of which are estimated at the level of 30%, which poses a great threat to the banking sector. Changes to a number of regulatory documents regarding prudential credit risk assessment approaches have been analyzed: banks’ opportunities to apply simplified credit risk assessment procedures have been expanded; established temporary features of credit risk assessment to support banks in providing flexible conditions, socalled credit holidays, to borrowers in a period of uncertainty; an amendment was made to the Instruction on the Procedure for Regulating the Activities of Banks in Ukraine, which reduced the risk weight (RWA) from 150% to 100% for consumer unsecured loans. The restrictions on foreign currency exchange operations related to non-resident banks on the so-called "stop" conditions for the first group of the Foreign Currency Classifier to support the liquidity of banks have been substantiated. Innovations of the International Financial Reporting Standard IFRS (IFRS) were studied, which in the legal and economic context of the essence of credit risks provides for the concept of expected credit losses (which will always be greater than zero), which should reflect probable losses due to the ownership of financial assets. The means of reducing credit risks were analyzed, in particular, diversification: geographical and portfolio. Considering the specifics of credit risks, the specifics of credit transactions are substantiated. The criteria for assessing credit risks based on qualitative and quantitative analysis are revealed. It was concluded that the actual assessment of credit risks in financial terms is under the influence of credit risk on the financial results of business entities and banking institutions and the specifics of credit operations.

ВИКОРИСТАННЯ ІНТЕРНЕТ-ТЕХНОЛОГІЙ ДЛЯ ДІАГНОСТИКИ ТА ПРОГНОЗУВАННЯ ПРОЦЕСІВ ПРИЙНЯТТЯ БІЗНЕС-РІШЕНЬ

The article analyzes the application of fractal analysis and neural networks in internet technologies for diagnosing the state of a studied object and forecasting time series. These methods will expand the possibilities of using predictions for the future behavior of the researched object in the fields of finance, investment, economics, sociology, and other industries where obtaining prospective knowledge is required. The authors provide an overview of predictive analysis theories and modern econometric and mathematical methods for modeling time series. The justification for choosing fractal analysis as an effective method for diagnosing business decision-making processes is given. A methodology for using internet technology to automate time series forecasting is proposed. A web application has been developed as a software product to solve the research tasks. The process of developing the web application is examined, which would forecast the financial indicators of Ukrainian banks based on available time series. The main stages of development and architecture of the web application for diagnosing and forecasting business processes are described. A generalized structure of software modules is presented. Time series of net profit for Ukrainian banks have been selected as the base model for analysis and forecasting. The developed web application is a complex of programs that use a neural network for time series forecasting. Fractal analysis is used in the stage of forming input data for the neural network. The application also provides the ability to conduct R/S analysis of time series to determine the Hurst exponent. The software product also allows training the neural network using backpropagation. With the machine learning algorithms used in the web application, it is possible to analyze large volumes of data and discover complex dependencies and patterns in time series that may be difficult to notice manually. This leads to more accurate and faster results and enables making more objective forecasts based on the available data. The developed web application can also be used for predicting crises in financial and investment activities.

КРЕДИТНО-ФІНАНСОВА ДІЯЛЬНІСТЬ БАНКІВСЬКИХ УСТАНОВ В УМОВАХ ЕКОНОМІЧНИХ ЗМІН

The article deals with the issues of credit and financial policy of banking institutions in the context of economic changes. The article investigates the factors and conditions that are implemented by banks in an unstable financial and economic situation. It is noted that the current economic conditions that Ukraine is currently experiencing require an analysis of the issue of improvement of an efficient banking system and building a financial activity that is adequate to the requirements of the times. Therefore, the study of the issue of credit and financial activities of banking institutions in the context of economic changes is of particular relevance and requires a detailed analysis. It is stated that the prudent lending policy of banks in previous years ensured the comparative resilience of many borrowers even to military shocks. The article analyses indicators of profitability and debt burden of enterprises of the real sector of economy. It has been found that since the beginning of the Russian invasion, Ukrainian banks have been experiencing a tightening of lending standards and a decrease in the level of approval of loan applications. The criteria for changes in the credit demand of the corporate sector are determined. The indicators of dynamics of lending to economic entities are considered and the structure of corporate UAH loans is analyzed. An analysis of the lending and financial activities of banking institutions has shown that a large number of banks have now adapted to the crisis. Although real revenues and output in most industries have fallen significantly compared to the levels before the full-scale invasion, the financial performance of enterprises is mostly acceptable and is expected to improve by the middle of 2023. At the same time, the demand for credit remains rather low, as the requirements of organisations or individual entrepreneurs (IEs) for working capital are moderate and investments are too risky. Therefore, while the economy is unstable, banks offer lending mainly within the framework of state support programmes and only in national currency. However, it can also be said that repayment of borrowers' debts currently prevails over the lending trend, which will contribute to a decrease in the loan portfolio.

ВПЛИВ ІНОВАЦІЙНИХ БАНКІВСЬКИХ ТЕХНОЛОГІЙ НА УДОСКОНАЛЕННЯ ОБСЛУГОВУВАННЯ КОРПОРАТИВНИХ КЛІЄНТІВ

In the changing conditions of life, it is very important to monitor the main trends in the development of banks. This contributes to the competent assessment of the activity of the banking system in the competitive market and the improvement of the quality of customer service, both retail and corporate. Constantly improving service delivery platforms reflect the result of hard work of specialists, increase the profitability of the banking sector and allow to maximize profits. The article deals with the implementation of financial innovations in the service of corporate clients by Ukrainian banks. It is emphasized that the catalyst for the development of digitization in banks was the quarantine conditions of 2020. The global trends in the development of innovations in banking practice have been studied. The best innovations in products and services for corporate clients are characterized. It was revealed that the main global banking innovations are: opening a digital account; application programming interfaces; video collaboration; p2p payments, cloud computing, chatbots, machine learning, digital lending systems. They ensure close communication between the bank and the client, quick receipt of products and services by clients, protection of bank data, and reduction of risks. Signs of attractiveness of new banking products are high reliability, profitability and quality, as well as profit from the introduction of modern financial technologies. The result of cooperation with fintech startups is new products and services or products and services with new qualities: innovative programs and projects; new intelligent products; modern new technological equipment and processes; new approaches to market formation of modern banking products and services. Particular attention is paid to ensuring the equality of the participants in the relationship (banks and clients) and the openness of the necessary information for them; provided own systematization of clients from the point of view of readiness for innovations and a list of the main innovative changes taking place in the banks’ service to corporate clients.

РОЗВИТОК БАНКІВСЬКОГО СЕКТОРУ ЯК КЛЮЧОВОЇ ЛАНКИ ФІНАНСОВОЇ СИСТЕМИ В УМОВАХ ВОЄННОГО СТАНУ

The article is devoted to the study of performance indicators of Ukrainian banking institutions under martial law. The banking sector is a key link that ensures the development of the financial system. Therefore, it is important to summarise the current trends in the functioning of the banking system during martial law. The banking industry has faced many challenges, but is still functioning thanks to prompt decisions taken by the National Bank of Ukraine and the authorities. The article examines the new rules and legislative changes to the activities of banks adopted by the NBU after the introduction of martial law. In particular, the discount rate was increased (up to 25%) as one of the most important monetary instruments used by the NBU in implementing its monetary policy. The dynamics of changes in Ukrainian banking institutions is presented. The article monitors lending by domestic banks to other economic entities and the volume of additional resources attracted by banking institutions of Ukraine. It is concluded that despite active military operations and an unstable macroeconomic situation, lending to business entities tends to grow, but there is a slight slowdown in lending to households. Deposits from both households and the corporate sector are also growing. This demonstrates the confidence of businesses and households in the banking system, despite the difficult economic situation in Ukraine. The article identifies a problem in the active operations of domestic banks, in terms of the share of non-performing loans, with a deterioration in the value of this indicator. The author analyses the volumes of income and expenses, which tend to grow. During the war, the profit of Ukrainian banks decreased by 3 times compared to the previous year. The indicators of profitability on assets (ROA) and capital (ROE) of Ukrainian banks were studied. Currently, there is a decrease in their value, which is not positive. The reason for the decline in bank profitability was the increase in provisioning due to the incurred and expected losses as a result of the war. Further prospects for the development of the domestic banking sector in the context of war are outlined.

The Reaction of the Sejmiks of Kyiv, Bratslav, and Chernihiv Voivodeships to the Pacification Initiatives of August II (1698–1699)

The article reveals an aspect of the history of the sejmiks of Kyiv, Bratslav, and Chernihiv voivodeships in exile during the early reign of August II in the Polish Lithuanian Commonwealth in the years of 1698–1699. This was when two pacification Sejms were convened when the new king tried to calm the civil confrontation in the country after the split election in the time of the Interregnum after Jan III Sobieski died. In 1698–1699, all three exile sejmiks were held in Volodymyr in the Volyn Voivodeship. Based on the sejmik acts study, it was found that the moderate royalist political position characterized all three exile sejmiks. The sejmiks of the Kyiv and Bratslav voivodeships were driven to do so by problems in their domains with the Cossacks of the Right Bank Ukraine, as well as by the opportunity to join the royal benefits at the time of the king's efforts to gain the favor of the nobility. The sejmik of the Chernihiv Voivodeship, which was non-territorial, demonstrated symmetrical political activity for the benefits achieving, generally focusing on compensation for their estate losses. The last one sejmik also implemented support to the Lithuanian republican nobility's efforts of granting the Coaequatio Iurium approval by the Sejm. The study also reveals that the Kyiv and Bratslav sejmiks were partly encouraged by the king's initiative to wage war against the Ottomans in 1698, but they completely joyfully welcomed the news of the signing of peace with Porta in 1699 and the return of previously lost lands to the Commonwealth. The loyalty of the exile sejmiks to the king did not prevent them from criticizing the royal authorities and making proposals for governance and improvement of treasury and military affairs. One of the main objects of criticism of the sejmiks was the foreign Saxon army that the king brought with him to the country on the eve of his coronation. They also criticized the king's methods of governance, which the nobility considered inconsistent with the established political regionalism and autonomy of local rights and law.

СУЧАСНІ АСПЕКТИ ОЦІНЮВАННЯ ЗБИТКІВ СУБ’ЄКТІВ ГОСПОДАРЮВАННЯ В УКРАЇНІ

As a result of the study of the issues of assessing losses of business entities, it is established that the theoretical developments and methodological recommendations for their assessment developed in peacetime in Ukraine do not take into account the specifics of the consequences of military operations and need to be adapted to the present. The author reveals the ambiguity of the wording of the concept of "losses" in the economic and legal aspects in theory and regulatory and legislative documents. Attention is focused on the peculiarities of the methodological approach to substantiating the amount of damage from the consequences of hostilities and the need to take into account the chronology of events of losses and compensation. The author analyzes the approaches to the formation of damage components and the correlation between the amount of damage and compensation. The author systematizes the types of losses depending on the multifaceted characteristics and supplements them with due regard for the peculiarities of the current stage. The author clarifies the methodological recommendations for substantiating the parameters of the model for determining the amount of losses and lost profits, and for ensuring that the influence of the time factor is taken into account based on the current characteristics of the financial market. The information base of the study is the regulatory and legal documents and documents of the state authorities of Ukraine on the regulation of relations between the parties that have suffered losses and caused them through the commission of illegal actions. Official statistical data of the National Bank of Ukraine, provisions of the European Valuation Standards of The European Group of Valuers' Associations (TEGOVA), Global Valuation Standards of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice (USPAP) and International Valuation Standards Council (IVSC), which allowed to summarize the current trends in valuation. The classification of losses has been supplemented with consideration of specific characteristics and peculiarities of quantitative assessment to reflect the nature of manifestation, time of occurrence, mechanism of influence, recovery opportunities and degree of certainty. Based on the provisions of investment theory and valuation theory, the requirements for substantiating the parameters of the valuation model have been clarified in terms of extending the planned settlement horizon until the moment of reimbursement, ensuring the objectivity of the interest rate to reflect the dynamics of the cost of capital, and providing the possibility of choosing the basis for calculating losses depending on the purpose of the assessment. The developed scientific, methodological and practical recommendations will help to increase the validity of the amount of losses, taking into account the specifics of the causes of occurrence, the chronology of losses and their compensation, and the impact of the time factor on the amount of compensation.

НАПРЯМИ АКТИВІЗАЦІЇ ЗАЙНЯТОСТІ НАСЕЛЕННЯ УКРАЇНИ В УМОВАХ ВОЄННОЇ ЕКОНОМІКИ

The article examines the state of employment of the population of Ukraine in the conditions of the military economy. The changes that took place in the labor market compared to 2021 have been determined. Expert assessments of the number of unemployed in Ukraine in 2022, carried out by the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine, the Kyiv School of Economics, the International Labor Organization and the National Bank of Ukraine, were considered. The reasons for the increase in the level of unemployment are revealed, among which the main ones are the collapse of business, the destruction of the production base of many enterprises as a result of missile attacks of the Russian Federation, the forced reduction of staff in order to optimize costs. The study of the European Business Association on the state of work of companies in January 2023 is characterized. It was found that only 54% of companies were fully operational during this period. The views of domestic scientists regarding directions for employment activation and restoration of labor market parameters were considered, among which the attraction of donor funds for the creation of new jobs was highlighted as the main one; formation of effective programs for retraining and improving the qualifications of employees; development of short-term plans for relocation or reorientation of some enterprises; stimulation by the state of private business in order to expand opportunities for employment of the population; creation of effective conditions for self-employment of the population; expansion of sources of financial support for business by methods of granting grants and attracting foreign investments. The proposals of the European Business Association regarding the improvement of the regulatory framework for the functioning of the labor market are described. Measures implemented by the government to increase employment are analyzed, in particular: introduction of tax benefits for individual entrepreneurs; development of the enterprise relocation program; implementation of the "eRobota" project; approval of a new procedure for providing compensation to employers for employment of certain categories of registered unemployed. It was concluded that there is a need to create a mechanism for providing jobs to internally displaced persons, and in the post-war period, to develop and implement a Strategy for the restoration and stabilization of the domestic labor market.

АРХІТЕКТУРА ПРОГРАМНОГО ЗАБЕЗПЕЧЕННЯ ДЛЯ ЗБОРУЙ АНАЛІЗУ ДАНИХ ПРО ВАРТІСТЬ ЗЕМЛІ СІЛЬСЬКОГОСПОДАРСЬКОГО ПРИЗНАЧЕННЯ З ВИКОРИСТАННЯМ МАШИННОГО НАВЧАННЯ

The work presents a general approach to the software architecture for data collection and analysis using machine learning methods to predict the price of agricultural land. A brief review of recently published literature is made. New research results using LightGBM, Fast Tree, and Fast Forest methods to predict land price are provided. The highlighted stages include data collection, storage, exploration, and transformation, aggregation, optimization, and the use of machine learning methods. It is proposed to use several software applications for the implementation of these stages. An architecture diagram of the interaction of such applications is provided. The use of inflation data and the impact of such data on forecast quality reviewed. In addition to the dataset collected from the auctions and classifieds sites (first data source), data available on the website of the State Service of Ukraine for Geodesy, Cartography, and Cadastre (second data source) were used. The dataset collected from first data source consist of 2123rows, collected from seconds data source contains 815529 (further filtered to less rows due to different types of contract, year, etc). List of datasets for which machine learning was performed has been modified: attribute about soil type, distances from big cities, inflation were added. Information from the data available on the website of the State Service of Ukraine for Geodesy, Cartography, and Cadastre was converted to dataset, and it was further filtered and utilized, ranging from 75843 to 102924rows. From the initial data set (D1), two additional ones were created: without data on land rent (D2) and with prices that take into account inflation (according to the National Bank of Ukraine) (D3). Experiments on removing the value of the regulatory monetary assessment of land reviewed. Also, for data source data was converted to four datasets. Dataset D4 – constructed using date filters for 2022 and 2023 for the "sale-purchase agreement" type. Rows without specified prices will be removed from the dataset. The total number of rows in dataset D4 is 102924. Dataset D5 – additionally apply a filter on the price per hectare of land, ranging from no less than 10000 UAH to no more than 150000 UAH. After this filtration, only 82241 parcels will remain in the dataset. Dataset D6 – expand dataset D5 with information about distances from the largest cities in Ukraine to the land. Dataset D7 – further expand dataset D6 with information about inflation. Thus, machine learning methods LightGBM, Fast Tree, and Fast Forest have been used for datasets collected from two different sources. If the cost prediction has an error of no more than 10%, it is considered correct. The result of the machine learning, depending on the algorithm and data set, for R2 up to 0.897 and percentage of correct predictions up to 91%. Research shows that as the number of rows in the initial dataset increases, the quality of prediction improves. As for second data source – it have slightly worser prediction results then first data source, but second data source usage have shown how fast dataset can be extended with new parameters (e.g. soil type, distances from cities, inflation) to significantly increase prediction quality. Another possible way to improve the quality of the forecast could be the integration of certain data sets on non-market factors affecting land value (e.g., a map of potential contamination by explosive objects). The summary suggests further steps to improve the quality of predictions.

УПРАВЛІННЯ РИЗИКАМИ ЗЕЛЕНОГО ФІНАНСУВАННЯ В УКРАЇНІ

As many countries around the world are implementing sustainable development policies and seeking to finance environmental, climate and nature protection measures, the use of new financial instruments is becoming more widespread, with green loans and green bonds being the main ones. At the same time, their use exposes creditors and investors to significant financial risks that financial institutions and financial market regulators have not previously taken into account in their work. Therefore, the challenge is to develop new approaches to assessing and managing the risks of using green finance instruments to ensure sustainable development. On the basis of the recommendations and guidelines provided by international financial organisations, regulatory documents of central banks of OECD member countries for 2017–2022, and recommendations of the National Bank of Ukraine, the main areas of ensuring effective risk management of lending to green projects are determined, coefficients of the probability of default of the borrower in lending to green projects are calculated. A methodology has been developed to assess the concentration level of credit risks associated with green lending. The article proposes a system of liquidity ratios to secure collateral in green lending operations. A methodology has also been developed for calculating the adjusted interest rate of yield for green corporate bonds, taking into account inflation rates and the value of the established inflation target. Considerable attention is given to improving regulatory and supervisory measures by the central bank to manage the risks associated with the use of new green financial instruments. The proposed approaches can be used by domestic lenders and investors to improve the risk management of green finance in the post-war economic reconstruction period. The issues discussed in this paper are relevant to the discussion aimed at implementing balanced approaches to green finance risk management in the process of ensuring sustainable development in Ukraine.

Міжнародні резерви: досвід України та Польщі

The article highlights the theoretical and practical foundations of management of international reserves of both Ukraine and Poland. The article characterizes the system of elements of management of international reserves of the National Bank of Ukraine, which include: goals and principles of management; organizational structure of management; risks of operations with international reserves; risk assessment. The stages of management of international reserves of the National Bank of Poland are allocated and characterized, the relevant structures are defined. It is noted that in the process of managing foreign exchange reserves in Poland, decisions are made and implemented directly by the central bank of the country, without the participation of external asset managing institutions. The investment process is based on guidelines approved by the Board of the National Bank of Poland, including a set of norms, regulations and procedures, in particular on the decision-making process, permissible asset classes, as well as rules for financial risk management, including the establishment of credit limits and criteria for selecting a contractor. The structure of international reserves of both the National Bank of Ukraine and the National Bank of Poland is analyzed in terms of currencies. The value of gold and the share of gold in the international reserves of the National Bank of Ukraine and the National Bank of Poland are evaluated in dynamics. On the basis of the carried out study, conclusions were drawn and concrete proposals were formulated for improving the process of managing international reserves, taking into account international experience, namely: to optimize the structure of international reserves by diversifying it and expanding the list of reserve currencies; to increase the share of monetary gold as a reliable asset; to expand the direction of investing international reserves, in particular, to consider the possibility of investing in securities of countries that demonstrate sustainable development of their economies.

Моніторинг та оцінювання складових регуляторного впливу держави на банківську діяльність

In the article, using the Glossary of monitoring and evaluation terms of the Ukrainian Association of Evaluators, the development of the rating evaluation system of domestic banks is disclosed. The definition of the features of the classification of banks by groups and classes in the structure of the range of integral indicators, the level of their financial condition and the degree of risk of bankruptcy is summarized. The information and methodical support for evaluating indicators of financial stability of banks as monitoring indicators is given. An algorithm and results of a discriminant analysis of the activity of 20 Ukrainian banks were developed with the construction of dynamic models for different groups and classes of banks. Their grouping was carried out according to the signs of satisfactory and unsatisfactory financial condition and acceptable and unacceptable degree of risk of bankruptcy. A reference matrix for the substantiation of the leading indicators of the formation of complex regulatory influence of the state on the activity of banks has been developed, with the definition of typical areas of regulatory influence. The target criterion of the regulatory influence of the state on banking activity is the market value of banks, and its complexity is ensured by taking into account, in addition to the economic standards of the National Bank of Ukraine, leading indicators of the level of financial condition and the degree of bankruptcy and specific areas of effective influence.

ОРГАНІЗАЦІЯ ПЛАТІЖНИХ ПОСЛУГ І ГРОШОВИХ РОЗРАХУНКІВ ХОЛДИНГОВИМИ КОМПАНІЯМИ ТА ШЛЯХИ ЇЇ УДОСКОНАЛЕННЯ

The content of the novelties in the legislation related to payment services, the order of their provision, the subjects of payment service providers (including banking institutions), the conditions for conducting their activities and their supervision, the general principles of the functioning of payment systems, the issuance and use of electronic and of digital money of the National Bank of Ukraine, establishes the rights, obligations and responsibilities of participants in the payment market of Ukraine. The organization of payment services and cash settlements by holding companies is considered on the example of the diversified company Metinvest Holding. An analysis of the dynamics and structure of current assets in terms of receivables, current financial investments, funds and their equivalents of Metinvest Holding LLC was carried out. It was established that during 2020–2022 the value of current liabilities decreased, primarily due to a decrease in: accounts payable for goods, works, services and advances received. It has been proven that the ability of business entities to make payments and settlements is characterized by such indicators as the ratio of payables and receivables, liquidity indicators, etc. During the analyzed period, working capital was negative, and its deficit increased. Liquidity ratios are at an unsatisfactory level, and their reduction is also observed. The values of liquidity ratios differ slightly, since the main part of current assets is represented by receivables. The ratio of absolute liquidity indicates a critical inability to fulfill one's obligations. It has been established that the net flow of funds from operating activities during 2021–2022 is positive. The main source of incoming flows is revenue from the sale of finished products, goods, works, services, the main source of outgoing flows is spending on payment for goods, works, services. Recommendations for improving the organization of payment services and cash settlements by banks and holding companies have been developed: introduction of modern electronic technologies, streamlining of claims and search work, strengthening of liquid position, etc.

ДИНАМІКА КУРСОВОЇ ПОЛІТИКИ НАЦІОНАЛЬНОГО БАНКУ УКРАЇНИ В УМОВАХ ВІЙНИ ТА АКТУАЛЬНА СТРАТЕГІЯ КУРСОУТВОРЕННЯ

The article is devoted to the analysis of the measures of the exchange rate policy of the National Bank of Ukraine regarding the optimal order of formation of the exchange rate, which have been taken since the beginning of the full-scale war and the justification of the reasons and feasibility of the transition to the regime of managed flexibility of the exchange rate as an actual and most optimal concept of exchange rate formation. The relevance of the research is beyond doubt, because the choice of a successful strategy for the formation of currency rates using effective traditional and innovative tools will allow balancing the currency market, ensuring financial security and general economic development. The research methods used in the work are: analytical method, graphical method, methods of comparison and detailing. Basic theoretical aspects of the essence of foreign exchange policy have been highlighted, its object, subjects and key tasks have been defined. Operational actions of the National Bank of Ukraine to prevent the rapid depreciation of the national currency due to the impact of the war have been determined, the first of which was the immediate transition to a fixed exchange rate regime, with the aim of adapting to difficult conditions, avoiding panic, ensuring the stable operation of the financial system, curbing inflation and maintaining macroeconomic stability In addition to the fixed exchange rate, directive currency restrictions have been established, including: restrictions on the operation of the foreign exchange market, restrictions on the issuance of cash in the national currency, a ban on the issuance of cash in foreign currency, and others. The advantages of the fixed exchange rate policy, as a temporary stabilization tool, as well as the disadvantages of its long-term use, which put pressure on the economy and are a threat to the state’s financial system, have been analyzed. The advantages, rationality, and prerequisites for introducing the system of managed exchange rate flexibility by the National Bank of Ukraine as a transitional stage before returning to the regime of currency exchange rate formation that operated before the start of a full-scale war, namely: a floating exchange rate and inflation targeting, have been argued.

Current labor market development trends in the context of the economic security of the state

In modern economic conditions, issues related to the changes that have taken place in the labor market in the context of the economic security of the state are becoming important. Ensuring a sufficient level of economic security of the state directly depends on the state of the labor market, structural changes and trends in its functioning, and the level of flexibility and adaptability to new socio-political conditions. The article aims to study modern trends in the development of the labor market in the context of the state's economic security. The authors analyzed the approaches to defining the essence of the «labor market» concept, which made it possible to systematize this category's scientific and methodological approaches. The article examines issues that highlight the situation in the Ukrainian labor market during the transformation of socio-economic processes and analyzes the impact of changes in the trends of the key parameters of the functioning of the labor market on the state's economic security. The analysis was carried out based on data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine, and the National Bank of Ukraine, which made it possible to determine the main trends in the development of the labor market, identify challenges that affect the formation of the labor potential of the economy, establish indicators of the level of economic security of the country and its components, which take into account indicators of the state and efficiency of the labor market. The authors characterized the labor market in martial law conditions in Ukraine, which made it possible to outline the main consequences and peculiarities of its functioning. The labor market should play a special role in ensuring the country's economic security during wartime. The article substantiates the need to implement measures in the labor market field. In particular, it is necessary to pay attention to the issues of successfully overcoming destructive processes in the demographic development of the population, increasing the level and quality of employment of the population, which will contribute to the improvement of economic, social, and labor relations in the country, and in the perspective of the formation of the effective and sufficient labor potential aimed at restoring the economy, the social infrastructure of the country and maintaining a high level of economic security of the state.

Оцінка діяльності банківських установ в умовах воєнного стану як складова системи банківського контролю

The purpose of this study is to assess the current state of activity and peculiarities of the functioning of banking institutions of Ukraine under martial law and to determine the place and role of such an assessment in the system of monitoring the activity of banking institutions. The authors provide an approach to understanding the essence of the banking control system. The authors understand the banking control system as a set of rules, procedures, legislative regulations and institutions that provide supervision, regulation and assessment of banks' activities. The place and role of assessment of banking institutions' activity in the control system is substantiated. In order to evaluate the activity of banking institutions in the conditions of martial law, the peculiarities of the functioning of the banking system of Ukraine were revealed, its components, participants (National Bank of Ukraine, commercial banks, non-banking financial institutions, stock exchange, clients) were determined and their characteristics were provided. The consequences for the banking system caused by the war and the changes that the war led to are substantiated: bank closures, loss of assets, reduced trust in banking institutions, increased risk, change in business priorities and work in difficult conditions, restructuring and support. The trends of changes in the main indicators in terms of which the activity of banking institutions was evaluated were clarified, namely: the number of operating banking institutions, the profitability of assets and capital of banks, the amount of net assets of banks according to the profitability of capital, the share of non-performing loans in the portfolios of banks, the amount of total assets of Ukrainian commercial enterprises banks, and reasonably obtained results. It has been established that to date, banking institutions have managed to adapt to work under martial law. Despite the decrease in the number of commercial banks, indicators of profitability of assets and capital of the banking sector are gradually increasing, there is a sufficient level of capitalization and liquidity, an active credit policy is being pursued, and indicators of funding from the population and business are increasing. Currently, banking institutions effectively perform their functions and support the efficiency of the national economy. The main tools, the use of which will help ensure the further stable functioning of the banking system in modern conditions, have been identified. Such instruments are: financial support of banking institutions from the Government; regulatory measures of the National Bank of Ukraine aimed at ensuring the stability of the banking system; effective communication between banks, regulatory authorities, clients and the public; measures to stimulate the economy; regular monitoring and control of the state of the banking system.

ДОСЛІДЖЕННЯ КЛЮЧОВИХ ЕЛЕМЕНТІВ ПРОЦЕСУ ФОРМУВАННЯ ТА РЕАЛІЗАЦІЇ КРЕДИТОСПРОМОЖНОСТІ ПОЗИЧАЛЬНИКІВ БАНКУ

The article considers issues related to the analysis of approaches to assessing the creditworthiness of bank borrowers. The article analyses various views of scientists and allocates main components of the concept of "creditworthiness", which comprehensively reveal the content of the concept and its main characteristics, both in relation to individuals and legal entities. The article offers a structure of assessment of creditworthiness of clients on the basis of the world and domestic practice, which includes two components: criteria of creditworthiness of a client and methods of assessment of creditworthiness of a client. Based on a comparative analysis of the main 10 foreign models for assessing the creditworthiness of borrowers, it is concluded that the indicators of "borrower's reputation" and "ability to repay the loan" are present in a larger number of models. The article considers foreign and domestic methods of assessing the borrower's creditworthiness and concludes that they have both common and distinctive features, but there is no single ideal method among them that would be suitable for a larger number of banking institutions. It is shown that there is a need to select instruments that will reflect the risks of potential losses. By determining the optimal system for assessing the borrower's creditworthiness, the bank reduces the risks of loan default and, in the future, bankruptcy of the institution. It is determined that the methods used in the practice of domestic banks generally assess financial indicators, but there is a gap in the use of qualitative characteristics in assessing the borrower's activities that do not have a quantitative expression, which are considered in detail in foreign methods for assessing the creditworthiness of a supplier. To make such an assessment, banking institutions need to pay attention to the analysis of the external environment, which will help in determining credit risks. It is the combination of qualitative and quantitative indicators that will help banks conduct a comprehensive multifactorial analysis and minimise credit risk. Therefore, based on the recommendations of the National Bank of Ukraine, each banking institution should choose an acceptable methodology or system for analysing and assessing creditworthiness in order to ensure the correctness of this assessment. It is concluded that there is currently no single methodology for assessing the creditworthiness of borrowers.

Аналіз підходів до оцінки стійкості банківської системи України

Ensuring the sustainability of the banking system is one of the key tasks of economic policy of countries, regardless of their level of economic development. The purpose of the article is to define and analyze existing approaches to assessing the financial sustainability of the banking system of Ukraine. When considering the essence of the terms «stability» and «sustainability», it is determined that they are closely related, but have certain nuances that need to be taken into account in the context of the financial condition of the banking system. The scientific literature uses different terms to describe the state of the system, its structure and processes, which differ from the approach to defining these terms in the context of the financial sector. A study of the factors affecting the financial sustainability of the banking system has shown that they can be divided into the external and internal factors. The external factors include economic, legal, political, competitive trends, technology, and automation. The internal factors include economic, organizational and technological aspects, as well as the quality of management. It is noted that various factors are interrelated and have a multidirectional impact on the indicators of financial sustainability of the banking system. It is defined that currently there are many methods for assessing the banking system and individual banks, which differ in various parameters and indicators. The author identifies several main approaches to assessing the sustainability of banking systems in the world countries, including stress testing of the banking sector, analysis of indicators of financial sustainability of banks, assessment of the system of regulation and supervision, assessment of the level of financial stability of banks, and risks. These approaches can be used to analyze and monitor the financial sustainability of the banking system both separately and in complex combination. There are also various complex indicators and indices, such as the Financial Condition Index (FCI) and the Financial Stress Index (FSI), which are used to reflect the financial stability of countries of the world. The Financial Stress Index (FSI), developed by the National Bank of Ukraine in 2017, which consists of four sub-indices and sets the weight of each sub-index according to the volume of each market, is also examined. The author proposes general directions for improving the financial stability of the Ukrainian banking system in terms of wartime, including strengthening regulatory policy, improving financial literacy of citizens, and developing digital payment infrastructure. The carried out study contributes to the understanding of the factors that affect the financial sustainability of the banking system of Ukraine and should be taken into account when developing strategies to ensure such stability in the future.

ТЕНДЕНЦІЇ РОЗВИТКУ БАНКІВСЬКОЇ СИСТЕМИ УКРАЇНИ У 2023 РОЦІ

In 2023, Ukraine continues the war with the aggressor that began in February 2022. In this context, it is important to understand the state of the banking system as one of the main guarantees of the country's financial stability during the war and to identify trends in its further development. In order to identify the main trends that are inherent in the further development of the banking system in these conditions, it is necessary to analyze its current state. To do this, it is quite effective to study current statistical data (analysis of the dynamics of changes in key indicators, identification of the causes of their fluctuations, etc.), which highlight the activities of domestic banks in its various aspects and affect the overall level of development of the banking system. Thus, today it is appropriate and expedient to analyze the current state of the banking system of Ukraine, its peculiarities of functioning in the conditions of the war waged in the country. Thus, the relevance of the study is beyond doubt, and the topic is extremely important today. The purpose of the study is to analyze the state of performance indicators of the banking system of Ukraine by groups of banks for 9 months of 2023 and to identify trends in its further development. To achieve this goal, the author studied the existing structure of the banking system of Ukraine for 9 months of 2023 and analyzed its state for the same period. The research was based on the use of various general and specific scientific methods, namely: analysis, synthesis, induction, deduction, abstraction, generalization, economic, mathematical and statistical methods, etc. The key financial indicators of the modern domestic banking system are analyzed. It is established that since 2017, the National Bank of Ukraine has been using the following groups to analyze the activities of the banking system of Ukraine: banks with a state share, banks of foreign banking groups, and banks with private capital. The study found that the banking system is generally profitable, with its performance indicators most influenced by the performance of two groups of banks: state-owned banks and banks of foreign banking groups. The analysis also shows a positive trend towards an increase in the level of solvency of the banking system in the face of the aggressor. The author concludes that the NBU's policy is balanced and that the management of banking institutions is effective in the context of war.