ДИНАМІКА КУРСОВОЇ ПОЛІТИКИ НАЦІОНАЛЬНОГО БАНКУ УКРАЇНИ В УМОВАХ ВІЙНИ ТА АКТУАЛЬНА СТРАТЕГІЯ КУРСОУТВОРЕННЯ

Abstract

The article is devoted to the analysis of the measures of the exchange rate policy of the National Bank of Ukraine regarding the optimal order of formation of the exchange rate, which have been taken since the beginning of the full-scale war and the justification of the reasons and feasibility of the transition to the regime of managed flexibility of the exchange rate as an actual and most optimal concept of exchange rate formation. The relevance of the research is beyond doubt, because the choice of a successful strategy for the formation of currency rates using effective traditional and innovative tools will allow balancing the currency market, ensuring financial security and general economic development. The research methods used in the work are: analytical method, graphical method, methods of comparison and detailing. Basic theoretical aspects of the essence of foreign exchange policy have been highlighted, its object, subjects and key tasks have been defined. Operational actions of the National Bank of Ukraine to prevent the rapid depreciation of the national currency due to the impact of the war have been determined, the first of which was the immediate transition to a fixed exchange rate regime, with the aim of adapting to difficult conditions, avoiding panic, ensuring the stable operation of the financial system, curbing inflation and maintaining macroeconomic stability In addition to the fixed exchange rate, directive currency restrictions have been established, including: restrictions on the operation of the foreign exchange market, restrictions on the issuance of cash in the national currency, a ban on the issuance of cash in foreign currency, and others. The advantages of the fixed exchange rate policy, as a temporary stabilization tool, as well as the disadvantages of its long-term use, which put pressure on the economy and are a threat to the state’s financial system, have been analyzed. The advantages, rationality, and prerequisites for introducing the system of managed exchange rate flexibility by the National Bank of Ukraine as a transitional stage before returning to the regime of currency exchange rate formation that operated before the start of a full-scale war, namely: a floating exchange rate and inflation targeting, have been argued.