Bad Days Research Articles

Time series analysis of COVID-19 cases

PurposeThis study analyses the prevalent coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic using machine learning algorithms. The data set used is an API data provided by the John Hopkins University resource centre and used the Web crawler to gather all the data features such as confirmed, recovered and death cases. Because of the unavailability of any COVID-19 drug at the moment, the unvarnished truth is that this outbreak is not expected to end in the near future, so the number of cases of this study would be very date specific. The analysis demonstrated in this paper focuses on the monthly analysis of confirmed, recovered and death cases, which assists to identify the trend and seasonality in the data. The purpose of this study is to explore the essential concepts of time series algorithms and use those concepts to perform time series analysis on the infected cases worldwide and forecast the spread of the virus in the next two weeks and thus aid in health-care services. Lower obtained mean absolute percentage error results of the forecasting time interval validate the model’s credibility.Design/methodology/approachIn this study, the time series analysis of this outbreak forecast was done using the auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and also seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving averages with exogenous regressor (SARIMAX) and optimized to achieve better results.FindingsThe inferences of time series forecasting models ARIMA and SARIMAX were efficient to produce exact approximate results. The forecasting results indicate that an increasing trend is observed and there is a high rise in COVID-19 cases in many regions and countries that might face one of its worst days unless and until measures are taken to curb the spread of this disease quickly. The pattern of the rise of the spread of the virus in such countries is exactly mimicking some of the countries of early COVID-19 adoption such as Italy and the USA. Further, the obtained numbers of the models are date specific so the most recent execution of the model would return more recent results. The future scope of the study involves analysis with other models such as long short-term memory and then comparison with time series models.Originality/valueA time series is a time-stamped data set in which each data point corresponds to a set of observations made at a particular time instance. This work is novel and addresses the COVID-19 with the help of time series analysis. The inferences of time series forecasting models ARIMA and SARIMAX were efficient to produce exact approximate results.

The good old days and the bad old days: evidence for a valence-based dissociation between personal and public memory

ABSTRACT How does memory for the public past differ from memory for the personal past? Across five experiments (N = 457), we found that memories of the personal past were characterised by a positivity bias, whereas memories of the public past were characterised by a negativity bias. This valence-based dissociation emerged regardless of how far back participants recounted the personal and public past, whether or not participants were asked to think about significant events, how much time participants were given to retrieve relevant personal and public memories, and also generalised across various demographic categories, including gender, age, and political affiliation. Along with recent work demonstrating a similar dissociation in the context of future thinking, our findings suggest that personal and public event cognition fundamentally differ in terms of access to emotionally salient events. Direct comparisons between personal and public event memory should represent a fruitful avenue for research on event cognition.

DUALITY OF LIVING WITH SYSTEMIC LUPUS ERYTHEMATOSUS: FLUCTUATING BETWEEN “GOOD DAYS” AND “BAD DAYS”

ABSTRACT Objective: to learn the perception of individuals with Systemic Lupus Erythematosus about living with the disease. Method: an exploratory and descriptive research study, of a qualitative nature, carried out with 26 individuals undergoing treatment at the rheumatology outpatient clinic of a university hospital in southern Brazil. The data were collected in the period from February to July 2019, by means of semi-structured interviews that were audio-recorded and subjected to the thematic modality of content analysis. Results: a category entitled: “Fluctuating between good and bad days in living with Systemic Lupus Erythematosus”, composed of two subcategories that portray that living with Lupus is something unstable/fickle, emerged from the results. This is because, as a result of the periods of remission and exacerbation of the signs and symptoms of the disease, the patients experience a paradox of constant oscillation between ups and downs. Conclusion: it was learned that individuals with Lupus perceive that living with the disease is marked by an oscillation between good days and bad days, which are related to periods of remission and exacerbation of the manifestations of the disease, respectively.

Skin, Kin, Kind, I/you/we: Autotheory's Compositional Grammar

Skin, Kin, Kind, I/you/we:Autotheory's Compositional Grammar Vilashini Cooppan (bio) "Tell me a story." After the familiar childhood injunction, in the microspace of that pause and its calm assurance that what is asked for will be given, comes the strangeness of a self made apposite; me, a story. I want it, I get it, I am it. When I was three and four, my ceaseless demands for just one more bedtime story led my mother to record them, eight-track tapes the size of a dinner plate spooling out surrogate presence. Her voice eventually gave way to mine, as my father recorded me singing nursery rhymes, pretending to be my nursery schoolteacher calling roll, and reciting from memory the stories my mother had read. "Say it off by heart," my father would say, and I would. There's a tender monstrosity to the scene as there seems to be to autotheory, a vampiric feeding and self-replication. Heart-song, life-blood, story-time. I want it, I get it, I am it. "Getting it" is part the self's dream fulfillment, a momentary [End Page 583] answering of desire's demand that, like Shahriyar listening to Scheherazade, fuels the want all the more. But "getting it" is also shorthand for understanding something external to the self—the moment when a concept's opacity lifts, when another's experience or emotion, bad day or baggage enters (I get you), when we sense what is felt beneath the surface of what is said. Autotheory enacts both senses of getting: the narrative appetite that makes me a story or I a theory, and the intersubjective opening to something previously unknown. In that double state, autotheory reveals its own frame narrative, the story of an I containing a you. The I that wants to tell the story is always hungry (acting like Scheherazade, consuming like Shahriyar). In its most phobic version, autotheory's economy seems eager incorporation of the listening other and monstrous inflation of the speaking self. Its image is an open mouth, swallowing while talking, an I in the shape of an O, endlessly circling back to itself. Bad manners. Bad form. Bad for politics. Self-talking while everything burns, voicing "I" when what we desperately need is to remake "we" and world. And yet that open mouth is not merely self-projection or other-incorporation, autotheory's negative fantasm, but its decisive act, the allocentric opening hidden by that hungry I so eager to tell its tale. If autotheory is about anything, it is about the extent to which I is not only I, and not only the I who speaks and the you who listens, but a multiplicity, the I that thinks itself as what it is not so that something else (let's call it change) might come to be. "Could you, would you, would you, could you?" Sam-I-am demands of one who wants none of those green eggs and ham in his mouth until he does. "Sam! If you will let me be, I will try them. You will see."1 Open mouths everywhere. If we let I be, what can be seen? I am/you are/we are trying, seeing, opening, changing. Autotheory is more than theory with a strong index of I's and a propensity to tell its own story, as Paul Preciado's "theory of the self, or self-theory" asserts when it announces, "I'm not interested in my emotions insomuch as their being mine, belonging only, uniquely, to me. I'm not interested in their individual aspects, only in how they are traversed by what isn't mine."2 Despite the long shadow of the cogito, theory's grammar needs not unfold from I alone. It's not [End Page 584] in thinking that this I's am lies but in opening, in being traversed and transformed by what is not the self. Spoken as I, oriented to you, built from pieces, always overflowing its container, autotheory is a spillage of a style in which lies an aesthetics, an analytics, an ethics, and a politics. How does autotheory get from I to you to we? How does...

The Double Life of Danny Day by Mike Thayer

Reviewed by: The Double Life of Danny Day by Mike Thayer Quinita Balderson Thayer, Mike The Double Life of Danny Day. Feiwel, 2021 [256p] Trade ed. ISBN 9781250770998 $16.99 E-book ed. ISBN 9781250771001 $9.99 Reviewed from digital galleys R Gr. 4-7 Ever wish you could take another stab at a killer exam, relive an awesome experience, or call do over on a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad day? Meet Danny Day, who has lived every day of his eleven years twice: first, a sneak peek “discard day,” which allows him to make adjustments for the second, permanent “sticky day.” Now he’s moved to a small Idaho town awash in potato references, and after he admits his secret to a friend, Zak, the two decide to use Danny’s gift for good, planning to take down the school’s resident loudmouth, a bullying top gamer, who has been cheating at a video game tournament. Thayer delights noobs and pros alike with this fast-paced adventure, and even non-gamers will appreciate Danny’s beloved fantasy gaming realm of Champions Royale, filled with mythical creatures and elaborate artillery. There’s plenty of drama on the school side as well, with a popular clique and a site that embarrassingly categorizes people as either Stud Spuds or Dud Spuds. It’s a riveting premise and a cool spotlight on the social world of videogames, and readers will consider their double days with Danny to be time well spent. Copyright © 2021 The Board of Trustees of the University of Illinois

Insider attacks: human-factors attacks and mitigation

For many organisations, the human element is generally the weakest link and often the reason why many security incidents occur. As an organisation grows, the chance of a human-caused security incident increases exponentially. Even given the most security-oriented individual, it only takes one slip-up, a minor mistake, or someone having a bad day to create a security incident.

Case Report of Treatment Resistant Pyoderma Gangrenosum

This is a case of a 38-year-old married female diagnosed with Pyoderma Gangrenosum (PG) for 4 years. This patient was very anxious and frustrated. The patient was using all the standard treatments for PG, oral steroids 40mg/day, colchicine 2mg/day, topically tacrolimus 0.1%, topically metronidazole, oral 3rd generation of cephalosporin antibiotics 1gm/day, and oral dapsone 100mg/day but lesion was getting worse. The patient family and her husband were very supportive and all the negative options of physical and mental abuse, and not taking proper medicine have been completely ruled out by taking a detailed history from the patient alone. The patient is willing to get the cure and take and apply for all the medicines properly. All the other diseases have been ruled out that can be associated with PG such as inflammatory bowel diseases, trauma, vasculitis, arthritis, etc. The patient has been to many physicians but has not been able to get better and the lesion is getting worse day by day and because of this patient started the symptoms of depression and start losing weight. PG is a very worrisome disease and usually, PG cure rate is unpredictable. Patients having PG have emotional problems too because of lesions. The patient usually isolates herself from society and lost all her confidence.

Possible COVID-19 Reinfection in Two Healthcare Workers: A First Case Report from Turkey with Review of the Literature

In these worse days of the COVID-19 pandemic, it was reported that similar clinical pictures were observed after a while in those who suffered from the disease suggesting possible cases of reinfection. Some of these cases were among healthcare workers. These reports have raised serious concerns about the natural immunity gained against COVID-19. We report here two possible cases of reinfection in healthcare workers for the first time in Turkey. The first case was a 21-year-old male nurse working in a COVID-19 intensive care unit. RT-PCR test was reported positive on August 10 after complaints of weakness, severe muscle pain, and sore throat. The patient, who received treatment and was followed up according to the protocol, returned to work when two consecutive RT-PCR tests were negative on August 25-26. After 76 days, the patient who presented with complaints of weakness, severe muscle pain, sore throat, and diarrhea had again a positive RT-PCR. The second case was a 28-year-old female doctor working in a COVID-19 clinic. Her RT-PCR test was performed on 25 August after complaints of fatigue, severe muscle pain, headache, cough, anosmia, and dysgeusia accompanied by sub febrile fever were reported positive. She returned to work after two RT-PCR tests on September 10 and 15 were reported negative. Seventy-one days later, the RT-PCR test taken after complaints of fatigue, muscle pain, sore throat, headache, sub febrile fever, and occasional dry cough was evaluated as positive. The cases were discussed in detail with the review of the literature. © 2021 Ankara Yildirim Beyazit University.

A Glance on Indoor Air Pollutants, their Impacts and Simple Solutions to Avoid Health Related Issues

Every coin has two sides. Likewise, as we are progressing towards the era of technology and industrialization; a lot of worst effects are arising as well. Along with the ecosystem, human health is suffering from some adverse issues because of pollution. We have heard about outdoor air pollution but indoor air pollution is even more harmful to human health. It is being observed that Indoor Air Quality (IAQ) is getting worse day by day leading to many lung diseases, breathing issues, low birth rate, eye-related diseases, perinatal conditions, etc. Hence these issues have to be considered before getting too late. Indoor air quality varies from regions i.e. in the case of developed countries; cooling-heating appliances, electric devices, petroleum products, etc. are the major contributors to deplete IAQ. While in case of developing countries which have a huge number of rural areas; biomass open fires, traditional cooking systems with direct fire expose or indoor stove, etc. are the major factors behind damaged indoor air quality. Generally, children and aged persons spend most of their time inside the house. These people have low immunity hence they get easily affected by depleted IAQ and face many health-related issues. There is a long list of harmful pollutants like NOX, COX, SOX, organic matter, etc. that play a significant role in damaging air quality. A ventilation system is essential in offices, theatres, malls, homes, etc. but the occupant devices lower the air quality index. Likewise, green-house effects increase the percentage of COX which damages nature and human health as well. All these factors, parameters, adverse effects and solutions are studied in this paper.

RESIDENTIAL QUALITY ASSESSMENT OF MULTI-STORY BUILDINGS THROUGH RESIDENCE EXPERIENCE: A CASE OF HYDERABAD, PAKISTAN

In this modern era, multi-story housing is conceived as a sustainable and land-saving solution to increasing housing demand. In developing countries like Pakistan, unplanned and unsustainable multi-story housing development in major cities like Hyderabad. Housing quality is getting worse day by day, creating a negative impact on the physical and social well-being of inhabitants. The study identified the factors which are making a negative impact on multistory housing quality. The research is based on a thorough literature review, variables which helped categorize into safety and security, environment, life convenience, space utilization, utilities and services. To record the residents' opinion, the variables were inserted in a structured questionnaire with a 4-point Likert scale. Systematic sampling was applied to select a random sample of sixty buildings with an interval of 5. Using multiple regression analysis, four variables, including outdoor noise, fire protection, lack of elevator facility and drainage, were found to have a negative impact. The study is significant as the results can be considered as a guide for planning and development agencies to improve the multi-story housing quality by ensuring the inclusion of influential variables in the present and future development of multi-story buildings.

Assessing the psychological condition among general people of Bangladesh during COVID-19 pandemic

ABSTRACT COVID-19 has been termed as “coronaphobia” due to the overwhelming negative universal impact. The rapid transmission of the responsible novel coronavirus has compelled the situation worse day by day. Bangladesh is one of the hardest hit countries in this pandemic. This cross-sectional study intended to evaluate the psychological condition among general people of Bangladesh throughout the pandemic. The convenient and snowball sampling technique was applied to collect the responses through rapid online survey. The linear regression models were employed to demonstrate the association between DASS 21 subscales and responses. Respondents were observed with the prevalence of normal depression (38.68%) followed by moderate (21.41%) and severe depressions (16.82%). The prevalence of anxiety and stress among the participants was also normal and moderate. Students and female respondents were observed significantly higher risk of adverse mental health complications. Respondents who were confident and satisfied in their current living place and society were less likely to be affected by mental health complications during the pandemic. Respondents concerned about their earning and mental health were identified with more mental health complications. This study can pave the way for relevant organizations to respond to and prepare for ongoing and future pandemic.

Blood markers in remote ischaemic conditioning for acute ischaemic stroke: data from the REmote ischaemic Conditioning After Stroke Trial.

Remote ischaemic per-conditioning (RIC) is neuroprotective in experimental ischaemic stroke. Several neurohumoral, vascular and inflammatory mediators are implicated. The effect of RIC on plasma biomarkers was assessed using clinical data from the REmote ischaemic Conditioning After Stroke Trial (RECAST-1). RECAST-1 was a pilot sham-controlled blinded trial in 26 patients with ischaemic stroke, randomized to receive four 5-min cycles of RIC within 24h of ictus. Plasma taken pre-intervention, immediately post-intervention and on day 4 was analysed for nitric oxide (nitrate/nitrite) using chemiluminescence and all other biomarkers by multiplex analysis. Biomarkers were correlated with clinical outcome (day 90 National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale, modified Rankin Scale, Barthel index). Remote ischaemic per-conditioning reduced serum amyloid protein (SAP) and tissue necrosis factor α (TNF-α) levels from pre- to post-intervention (n=13, two-way ANOVA, p<0.05). Overall (n=26), increases in SAP pre- to post-intervention and pre-intervention to day 4 were moderately correlated with worse day 90 clinical outcomes. No consistent significant changes over time, or by treatment, or correlations with outcome were seen for other biomarkers. Remote ischaemic per-conditioning reduced SAP and TNF-α levels from pre- to post-intervention. Increases in plasma levels of SAP were associated with worse clinical outcomes after ischaemic stroke. Larger studies assessing biomarkers and the safety and efficacy of RIC in acute ischaemic stroke are warranted to further understand these relationships.

CL2 Measuring Health-Related Quality of Life in the Context of Episodic Conditions

Cost-effectiveness analyses require the measurement of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) to estimate quality–adjusted life years (QALYs). Challenges with measuring HRQoL arise in the context of episodic conditions such as epilepsy, because symptoms may not have occurred within the recall period of the HRQoL instrument. The aim of this paper is to explore whether HRQoL measured at regular time intervals correctly reflects the HRQoL of patients with episodic conditions, using the example of refractory epilepsy. Follow-up data from the first year of the EPISODE-study on the (cost-)effectiveness of seizure dogs were used. In the stepped-wedge randomised controlled trial HRQoL is collected in 23 respondents at month 3, 6 and 9 with the EQ-5D and seizure frequency is recorded continuously using a seizure diary. Descriptive statistics, Student’s t-tests and graphical displays were used to compare the average seizure count on the day of completion of the EQ-5D with the average seizure counts over the preceding 7, 14 and 28 days. The average seizure count on the day of EQ-5D completion was lower than the average seizure count for the preceding period (2.88±5.10 vs. respectively 3.76±5.62, 3.81±5.69 and 3.75±5.39, p < 0.01). The same pattern was seen at the individual measurements. Graphical displays confirm the hypothesis that patients appear to complete the questionnaire on a day that seizure count is relatively low. When HRQoL is measured at regular time intervals, people with an episodic condition such as epilepsy appear to complete these measurements on relatively good days. Consequently, the HRQoL is potentially overestimated in such populations, especially for bad days. When treatment is targeted at reducing the frequency or the intensity of such bad days, measuring HRQoL at regular time intervals might lead to underestimation of the effectiveness of treatment, and therefore to biased estimates of cost-effectiveness.

COVID-19, myocarditis, and the other side of the bed.

COVID-19, myocarditis, and the other side of the bed.

A Study on the Application of Human Factors to the Introduction of PAV &amp; UAM

The present and future cities are expanding, and the noise and environmental pollution in cities are getting worse day by day, causing saturation of road and subway traffic. As a result, citizens are spending a great deal of time and money. The use of the sky as a measure to solve this problem has become a reality. However, airplanes that require airstrips and noisy helicopters are difficult to use in cities. As a solution, PAVs and UAMs that generate low noise and enable vertical takeoff and landing using electric energy, motor, hybrid, and hydrogen energy, are attracting attention, with its practicality being promoted in many countries. The development of urban environment and technology has led to the emergence of Personal Air Vehicle (PAV), Vertical Takeoff and Landing (eVTOL), and Urban Air Mobility (UAM) for shipping. Though currently at the level of testing, general commercialization of these air transport means is expected in the next five to fifteen years. This study suggests a plan on the application of human factors to the introduction of PAV and UAM.

The Impact of Data Filtration on the Accuracy of Multiple Time-Domain Forecasting for Photovoltaic Power Plants Generation

The paper reports the forecasting model for multiple time-domain photovoltaic power plants, developed in response to the necessity of bad weather days’ accurate and robust power generation forecasting. We provide a brief description of the piloted short-term forecasting system and place under close scrutiny the main sources of photovoltaic power plants’ generation forecasting errors. The effectiveness of the empirical approach versus unsupervised learning was investigated in application to source data filtration in order to improve the power generation forecasting accuracy for unstable weather conditions. The k-nearest neighbors’ methodology was justified to be optimal for initial data filtration, based on the clusterization results, associated with peculiar weather and seasonal conditions. The photovoltaic power plants’ forecasting accuracy improvement was further investigated for a one hour-ahead time-domain. It was proved that operational forecasting could be implemented based on the results of short-term day-ahead forecast mismatches predictions, which form the basis for multiple time-domain integrated forecasting tools. After a comparison of multiple time series forecasting approaches, operational forecasting was realized based on the second-order autoregression function and applied to short-term forecasting errors with the resulting accuracy of 87%. In the concluding part of the article the authors from the points of view of computational efficiency and scalability proposed the hardware system composition.

General Theory of Inflammation. Patient Education Key to Microdose Therapy for Chronic Inflammation Control

Microdose therapy is patient self-administration of hydrocortisone with stress management to control chronic inflammation within inflammation disorders [1]. Using microdose therapy, patients require so little hydrocortisone that overdose effects are avoided. Using this plan, patients average ingesting less hydrocortisone to achieve superior symptom control than low dose, daily hydrocortisone achieves, hence the given name micro dose therapy. The chronic inflammation cause is the weakening hydrocortisone surge in the blood produced by an activated hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis. As it weakens, short-term, beneficial inflammation increasingly evolves into chronic inflammation. The HPA axis activates only when stresses as infections, injuries, allergies, and emotional traumas occur. Much of the time, the axis is relaxed. The chronic inflammation solution is to teach patients to take hydrocortisone tablets on the bad days and not on the good ones. When starting micro dose therapy, it is impossible to differentiate bad days from good ones. Therefore, patients must begin micro dose therapy with a micro dose shower, a standard induction period of daily hydrocortisone, to achieve a minimum symptom state. From the latter, patients are able to distinguish bad days from good ones, and patient self-administration of hydrocortisone is successful.

Epidemiological Investigation of the Impact of Air Quality on Obstructive Sleep Apnea: What can we learn from CPAP devices?

Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is a common sleep disorder which affects an estimated 22-million Americans. In patients with OSA, periods of airway closure occur throughout the night resulting in a hypoxic sleep state which contributes increased risk of many conditions including heart disease, depression, stroke, and dementia. Inflammatory events, which occur following acute exposures to irritants lead to an increase in apnea. Exposure to poor air quality or air pollutants has been linked to airway inflammation suggesting that atmospheric pollutants are likely to negatively impact OSA. First-line treatment for OSA is use of a CPAP device which keeps the external air supply at higher pressure to help maintain an open airway. These devices log of apnea events and report daily AHI, a measure of apnea events per hour, for every night of active use. In this epidemiological study, CPAP device data from more than 4000 patients was compared with EPA atmospheric pollutant concentration data from air quality monitoring sites to investigate the impact of air quality on OSA. Machine-learning techniques were utilized to classify “good days,” where no notable apnea changes occurred, and “bad days,” days where more than 10% of patients had an AHI greater than two standard deviations above their mean with 96.7% accuracy. Examining the weighting factors utilized by the algorithm allowed identification of pollutants which drove selection of bad days. Those include PM 2.5, carbon monoxide, and ozone. Through further analysis, it was discovered that pollutant-sensitive sub-populations drive categorization. Overall, some level of pollutant sensitivity impacts ~50% of CPAP patients. Those with sensitivity average a 26% higher AHI and have 46% more clear-airway apneas. These results demonstrate the impact of air pollution on OSA and provide patients and physicians information to make care adjustments for the future.

Good Days, Bad Days: Stock Market Fluctuation and Taxi Tipping Decisions

Using taxicab tipping records in New York City (NYC), we develop a novel measure of real-time utility and quantitatively assess the impact of wealth change on the well-being of individuals based on the core tenet of prospect theory. The baseline estimate suggests that a one-standard-deviation increase in the stock market index is associated with a 0.3% increase in the daily average tipping ratio, which translates to an elasticity estimate of 0.3. The impact is short-lived and in line with the wealth effect interpretation. Consistent with loss aversion, we find that the impact is primarily driven by wealth loss rather than gain. We exploit Global Positioning System and timestamp information and design two difference-in-differences tests to establish causal inference. Exploitation of the characteristics of individual stocks suggests that the effect of wealth change on real-time utility is more pronounced in the stocks of firms with large market capitalization. Finally, our aggregate estimate suggests that annual tip revenue in the NYC taxi industry is associated with stock market fluctuations, ranging from −$17.5 million to $12.9 million. This paper was accepted by Tyler Shumway, finance.

“I’m in a very good frame of mind”: a qualitative exploration of the experience of standing frame use in people with progressive multiple sclerosis

ObjectivesThe study aim was to explore the experiences of people with progressive multiple sclerosis (MS) and their standing assistants during their participation in Standing Up in Multiple Sclerosis, a randomised...