Backwardation Research Articles

Price Impact of ETP Demand on Underliers

Does the increasingly popular passive investments via Exchange Traded Products (ETF/ETNs) affect underliers? Yes, at least for the most liquid ETP sector: VIX ETPs. This paper exploits rich instruments in VIX market as a perfect laboratory to test both level and roll effects of ETP demand on underliers. I show clean evidence that VIX futures (ETP underliers) have persistently priced in significant “fear premium” above fair value, and this non-fundamental component is predominantly driven by dealers' ETP hedging demand. While providing liquidity to ETPs as issuers, dealers pass hedging pressure to underlying futures. Analogous to the normal backwardation theory, net long hedging pressure steepens VIX contango. By exploiting exogenous demand shift from mechanical daily ETP roll, price impact is identifiable using a novel instrument. Given reduced-form evidence of the ETP feedback channel, I construct a structural model with preferred-habitat demands to endogenize VIX futures' “carry”. My estimates indicate that the tail wags the dog.

Muscle Activity During Backward And Forward Running At Reduced Body Weight

Body weight (BW) support during locomotion is used for both forward and backward locomotion. However, muscle activity during locomotion in different directions at different levels of BW support is not known. PURPOSE: To investigate muscle activity during backward (BR) and forward (FR) running at different BW support conditions. METHODS: Ten subjects (23.1±3.5 yrs) completed BR and FR on a lower body positive pressure treadmill; selecting a preferred speed for different BW support conditions (0%, 20%, 40%, 60%, and 80% of BW). Muscle activity from the rectus femoris (RF), biceps femoris (BF), tibialis anterior (TA), and gastrocnemius (GA) were measured and averaged across 15 s (zero offset removed, full-wave rectified). In addition, rating of perceived exertion (RPE), preferred stride frequency (PSF), and preferred speed (PS) were measured. All parameters were analyzed using 2 (direction) x 5 (BW) repeated measures ANOVA (α = 0.05). When an interaction effect was observed, post hoc analysis was performed using a Fisher’s protected least significant difference multiple comparison test (α = 0.05). RESULTS: Muscle activity (BF, TA, and GA), RPE, PSF, and PS were not influenced by the interaction of direction and BW support (P>0.05). BF, TA, and GA were not different between directions (P>0.05) but were different between BW support conditions (P<0.05). RF was influenced by the interaction of direction and BW support (P<0.05). For example, RF during BR at 0% BW support condition was significantly higher than that of BR at 40% (P<0.05), 60% (P<0.05), and 80% (P<0.05) BW support conditions. RF, BF, TA, and GA during BR were lower with increasing BW support (e.g., a decrease of 33%~60% between 80% and 0% BW support conditions). RPE during BR and FR were lower with increasing BW support (P<0.05) regardless of direction of locomotion (P>0.05). PSF and PS were different between directions (P<0.05) and between BW support conditions (P<0.05). PSF during BR and FR were lower and PS higher with increasing BW support. PSF during BR was 6%~9% higher than that of FR. PS during BR was 24%~31% lower than that of FR (e.g., 8.9±1.7 km/h vs. 11.9±3.2 km/h for BR and FR at 80% BW support condition, respectively). CONCLUSION: BW support influenced muscle activity whereas direction of locomotion did not even though slower speeds were selected BR vs. FR.

Risk Premia and Seasonality in Commodity Futures

​We develop and estimate a multifactor affine model of commodity futures that allows for stochastic variations in seasonality. We show conditions under which the yield curve and the cost-of-carry curve adopt augmented Nelson and Siegel functional forms. This restricted version of the model is parsimonious, does not suffer from identification problems, and matches well the yield curve and futures curve over time. We estimate the model using heating oil futures prices over the period 1984–2012. We find strong evidence of stochastic seasonality in the data. We analyse risk premia in futures markets and discuss two traditional theories of commodity futures: the theory of storage and the theory of normal backwardation. The data strongly supports the theory of storage.

QSPR study on benzene derivatives to some physico-chemical properties by using topological indices

QSPR study on benzene derivatives have been made using recently introduced topological methodology. In this study the relationship between the Randic' (x'), Balaban (J), Szeged (Sz),Harary (H), Wiener (W), HyperWiener and Wiener Polarity (WP) to the thermal energy (Eth), heat capacity (CV) and entropy (S) of benzene derivatives is represented. Physicochemical properties are taken from the quantum mechanics methodology with HF level using the ab initio 6-31G basis sets. The multiple linear regressions (MLR) and back ward methods (with significant at the 0.05 level) were employed to give the QSPR models. The satisfactory obtained results show that combining the two descriptors (Sz, HW) are useful topological descriptors for predicted (CV) and (S) of the 45 benzene derivatives. The training set models established by MLR method have not good correlation of (Eth), which means QSPR models could not predict the thermal energy of compounds.

Effects of aging and dual tasking on step adjustments to perturbations in visually cued walking.

Making step adjustments is an essential component of walking. However, the ability to make step adjustments may be compromised when the walker’s attentional capacity is limited. This study compared the effects of aging and dual tasking on step adjustments in response to stepping-target perturbations during visually cued treadmill walking. Fifteen older adults (69.4 ± 5.0 years; mean ± SD) and fifteen young adults (25.4 ± 3.0 years) walked at a speed of 3 km/h on a treadmill. Both groups performed visually cued step adjustments in response to unpredictable shifts of projected stepping targets in forward (FW), backward (BW) or sideward (SW) directions, at different levels of task difficulty [which increased as the available response distance (ARD) decreased], and with and without dual tasking (auditory Stroop task). In both groups, step adjustments were smaller than required. For FW and BW shifts, older adults undershot more under dual-task conditions. For these shifts, ARD affected the age groups differentially. For SW shifts, larger errors were found for older adults, dual tasking and the most difficult ARD. Stroop task performance did not differ between groups in all conditions. Older adults have more difficulty than young adults to make corrective step adjustments while walking, especially under dual-tasking conditions. Furthermore, they seemed to prioritize the cognitive task over the step adjustment task, a strategy that may pose aging populations at a greater fall risk. For comparable task difficulty, the older adults performed considerably worse than the young adults, indicating a decreased ability to adjust steps under time pressure.

Numerical investigation of the recirculation zone formed downstream of a back ward facing step

A numerical investigation has been carried out on recirculation zone formed downstream of a compressible flow over a backward facing step. The study has been performed by solving Two-Dimensional Navier-Stokes equations. The system of governing equations has been solved, using an explicit Harten-Yee Non- MUSCL Modified flux type TVD scheme and a zero-equation algebraic turbulence model to calculate the eddy viscosity coefficient. The recirculation region dimensions are characterized over a range of Mach numbers of fixed step height 5mmThe detail of recirculation zone such as pressure, temperature, recirculation length, strength etc are reported. The variations of these characteristics due to change of Mach number are also presented.

Comparison of commodity future pricing approaches with cointegration techniques

Commodity future prices are explained either by price expectations and a risk premium in the theory of normal backwardation or with the theory of storage in a cost of carry valuation. Both approaches are compared in separate equations with Johansen cointegration tests. The data sample contains five LME metals with maturities of 3–27 months and real inventory data. It is found that expected spot prices explain only short maturity future prices. But the cost of carry approach, with the inventory level-dependent convenience yield, explains prices for all maturities.

Symmetry Evaluation by Comparing Acquisition of Conditional Relations in Successive (Go/No-Go) Matching-to-Sample Training

The successive matching-to-sample (go/no-go) procedure has been shown to be an effective procedure for reducing stimulus-control digressions in conditional-relation training with nonhuman subjects. In addition, comparison of acquisition between symmetrical and nonsymmetrical conditional discriminations may be one effective way to evaluate the properties of equivalence relations. This study evaluated symmetry (one of the properties of equivalence relations) using both of these methods with two capuchin monkeys (Sapajus spp.). The acquisition of symmetric (Condition A) and nonsymmetric (Condition B) conditional discriminations was compared. In both conditions, two forward (AB) and two backward (BA) relations were simultaneously trained. New stimuli were used in each condition. The data demonstrated that the method reported here was an efficient way to assess the property of symmetry, which was clearly present in the conditional relations learned by one of the subjects (Conditions A1 and A2) and possibly absent in the conditional relations learned by the other (Condition A1). The present study supports the argument that the comparison of the acquisition of forward and backward relations, that are trained simultaneously, is a promising procedure for evaluating the properties of equivalence relations in nonhuman subjects.

Keynes's activity on the cotton market and the theory of the ‘normal backwardation’: 1921–1929

The aim of this paper is to assess to what extent Keynes, or any other speculator, could ever have used the theory of futures contracts he formulated in the 1920s as the guiding principle for their investment strategy and what light the theory can shed on speculative behaviour. To this end, we focus our attention on Keynes’ speculations on the cotton market. Our main conclusion is that Keynes did not base his speculation in cotton exclusively on the assumption that futures prices were downward biased in comparison with spot prices, as his theory would predict.

Abstract 19010: Exercise but Not Pacing Affects Coronary-Cardiac Interaction via Reflected Waves From the Aorta

Background: Not only the interaction with cardiac mechanics, but also the systemic circulation determines coronary hemodynamic waveforms. Coronary wave intensity can distinguish between forward (FW) waves entering from the aorta and backward (BW) waves originating from the microcirculation. The aim of this study was to assess contributions of the systemic circulation to cardiac-coronary interaction by comparing exercise, having a profound influence on the systemic circulation, with right atrial pacing where the systemic circulation is minimally affected. Methods: During cardiac catheterization we recorded aortic pressure (Pa), distal coronary pressure (Pd) and flow velocity (U) in diseased coronary arteries. In 10 subjects heart rate (HR) was increased by right atrial pacing at 120 bpm. 11 other patients exercised using a supine cycle ergometer at increasing workload. Net wave intensity was computed as dI= (dPd/dt)(dU/dt) and the energy of the FW and BW waves was derived by the areas under the curve. Results: Resting values of systemic and coronary hemodynamic were similar in both groups, with HR = 73 ±4 bpm, Pa = 104 ±5 mmHg, Pd = 85 ±10 mmHg and U = 16.2 ±2.1 cm/s. Exercise increased HR to 108 ±7 bpm which did not differ from that during pacing. Pa and Pd increased with exercise by 20 mmHg and 8 mmHg, resp. (p&lt;0.05), whilst pacing raised Pa by only 5 mmHg (p&lt;0.05) at unchanged Pd. U similarly increased to 23.1±3.0 cm/s by pacing and exercise. Coronary wave energy at rest was the same for both groups. The BW compression wave more than doubled with both pacing and exercise, while the early FW compression wave was unchanged by exercise and much reduced by pacing from 1.9 ± 0.6 to 0.3±0.1 Jm -2 s -2 (p&lt;0.05). The FW expansion wave at the onset of relaxation increased from 1.6±0.5 to 3.5±1.0 Jm -2 s -2 (p&lt;0.05) with exercise but was not altered by pacing. The BW expansion wave that drives diastolic coronary flow more than doubled with exercise, but only increased by 63% with pacing. Conclusion: Exercise more profoundly affects cardiac-coronary interaction than pacing and improves the energy of FW and BW waves during cardiac relaxation. This is likely due to increased contractility, assisted by added reflection from the systemic circulation that enters the coronary arteries via the aorta.

A Simple Equilibrium Model for a Commodity Market with Spot and Futures Trades

We propose a simple and yet comprehensive equilibrium model of the interaction between the physical and the derivative markets of a commodity. To represent all basic economic functions, we take three types of agents: industrial processors, inventory holders and speculators. Only the two first of them operate in the physical market. All of them, however, may initiate a position in the paper market, for hedging and/or speculation purposes. First, we give the necessary and sufficient conditions on the fundamentals of this economy for a rational expectations equilibrium to exist and we show that it is unique. Second, we propose a generalized framework for the analysis of price relationships: the model exhibits a surprising variety of behaviors at equilibrium which connects the normal backwardation theory and the storage theory. Third, the model addresses the regulatory issues of speculators’ presence in the market and their influence on prices

RURAL SURGERY;

objective: To study the pattern of Urological &amp; Non-Urological cases and their management at rural hospital. StudyDesign: descriptive and case series study. Place and Duration of Study: All surgical patients managed at civil hospital Mithi, from 3rdJune 2009 to 3rd June 2012. Methodology: In this study 4657 patients were enrolled. All patients presented with symptoms suggestingsurgical disease and managed as surgical cases were included in the study. These patients were either admitted via outpatientdepartment (OPD), emergency department or operated as OPD cases. The patients who received 1st aid medication and referred totertiary care were not included. The variables noted and analyzed were patient's demographic data, provisional and final diagnosis,disease pattern, presentation, mode of admission, mode of treatment, nature of operation, complications and final outcome. All the datawas analyzed by SPSS version-16 on computer. Results: During three year study period, 4657 patients were managed eitherconservatively or operated upon. Out of total, 2591(55.6%) were emergency and 2066(44.36%) were elective admissions. The malefemale ratio was 4:1 .The mean age of patients was 36.5 Years. Urinary tract diseases were responsible for 1638 (35.17%), alimentarytract diseases 1242 (26.6%), trauma 932 (20.01 %), soft tissue infections 546 (26.9%),superficial lumps 367 (18.13%) admission.Most common operative procedures for urinary tract diseases 409 (20.20%), soft tissue infections 546 (26.9%). superficial lumps367(18.13%), alimentary tract diseases (15.06%) 305, trauma (soft tissue repair and fractures 14.9 %( 303), were major bulk foroperations. Regarding procedures Abscesses incision and drainage in 197 (22.6%) patients, cystolithotomy in 153(17.6%),Hernioraphy (130) 14.9%, appendecectomy 105 (12.09%),haemorrhoidectomy 51(5.8%),breast abscess 38 (4.3%) breastlump(fibroadenoma) 25 (3.6%), hydrocele23 (2.6%), Ureterolithotomy 22 (2.5%) laparotomy 15 (1.7%), pyelolithotomy12, (1.3%)fissure in ano 13, (1.4%) undecended testis 12 (1.3%) Orchidectomy11 (1.3%) and abscesses psoas, perinal, scrotal 13 (1.4%), 18(2.07%) , 12 (1.3%) respectively. Conclusions: The concluded that the most common cause of seeking surgical care at back ward ruralTharparker was urinary tract diseases. Presence of surgical specialist at remote and back ward region Tharparker is candle in thedark.Main reason of patient referral to tertiary care was deficient in skill medical and surgical professionals, paramedic staff and medicalequipments.

Interlimb Coordination during Forward and Backward Walking in Primary School-Aged Children

Previous studies comparing forward (FW) and backward (BW) walking suggested that the leg kinematics in BW were essentially those of FW in reverse. This led to the proposition that in adults the neural control of FW and BW originates from the same basic neural circuitry. One aspect that has not received much attention is to what extent development plays a role in the maturation of neural control of gait in different directions. BW has been examined either in adults or infants younger than one year. Therefore, we questioned which changes occur in the intermediate phases (i.e. in primary school-aged children). Furthermore, previous research focused on the lower limbs, thereby raising the question whether upper limb kinematics are also simply reversed from FW to BW. Therefore, in the current study the emphasis was put both on upper and lower limb movements, and the coordination between the limbs. Total body 3D gait analysis was performed in primary school-aged children (N = 24, aged five to twelve years) at a preferred walking speed to record angular displacements of upper arm, lower arm, upper leg, lower leg, and foot with respect to the vertical (i.e. elevation angle). Kinematics and interlimb coordination were compared between FW and BW. Additionally, elevation angle traces of BW were reversed in time (revBW) and correlated to FW traces. Results showed that upper and lower limb kinematics of FW correlated highly to revBW kinematics in children, which appears to be consistent with the proposal that control of FW and BW may be similar. In addition, age was found to mildly alter lower limb kinematic patterns. In contrast, interlimb coordination was similar across all children, but was different compared to adults, measured for comparison. It is concluded that development plays a role in the fine-tuning of neural control of FW and BW.

Organization of functional postural responses following perturbations in multiple directions in elderly fallers standing quietly

The objective of the study was to assess functional postural responses by analyzing the center-of-pressure trajectories resulting from perturbations delivered in multiple directions to elderly fallers. Ten elderly individuals were standing quietly on two force platforms while an apparatus delivered controlled perturbations at the level of pelvis in eight directions: 'forward (FW)' and 'backward (BW)' [anterioposterior plane (AP)], 'left (LT)' and 'right (RT)' [mediolateral plane (ML)] and four combinations of these principal directions: forward-left (FL), forward-right (FR), backward-left (BL) and backward-right (BR). Perturbations were repeated randomly four times in each direction. Peak amplitude responses (PAR AP and PAR ML) and times to reach peak amplitude responses (TPAR-AP and TPAR-ML) were extracted for each perturbation direction from acquired center-of-pressure data. One-way analysis of variance was used to test differences between directionally-similar perturbation directions. Balance abilities were assessed by means of Berg Balance Scale. Average Berg Balance Scale for the group resulted in 33.9±5.8 points, which means that the participants were at greater risk of fall. The comparison of the group averaged PARAP and TPAR-AP in all 'forward' directions (FW, FL, FR) as well in all 'backward' directions (BW, BL, BR) have not shown statistically significant differences. The comparison of the group averaged PARML and TPAR-ML in all 'left' directions (LT, FL, BL) as well in all 'right' directions (RT, FR, BR) have not shown statistically significant differences. These results suggest that a principle of decoupled control may to a large extent be preserved also in elderly with clearly diminished balancing abilities, which implies that the accuracy in the assessment of perturbation direction may be well preserved also in very old age.

Trunk's natural inclination influences stance limb kinetics, but not body kinematics, during gait initiation in able men.

The imposing mass of the trunk in relation to the whole body has an important impact on human motion. The objective of this study is to determine the influence of trunk's natural inclination - forward (FW) or backward (BW) with respect to the vertical - on body kinematics and stance limb kinetics during gait initiation.Twenty-five healthy males were divided based on their natural trunk inclination (FW or BW) during gait initiation. Instantaneous speed was calculated at the center of mass at the first heel strike. The antero-posterior impulse was calculated by integrating the antero-posterior ground reaction force in time. Ankle, knee, hip and thoraco-lumbar (L5) moments were calculated using inverse dynamics and only peaks of the joint moments were analyzed. Among all the investigated parameters, only joint moments present significant differences between the two groups. The knee extensor moment is 1.4 times higher (P<0.001) for the BW group, before the heel contact. At the hip, although the BW group displays a flexor moment 2.4 times higher (P<0.001) before the swing limb's heel-off, the FW group displays an extensor moment 3.1 times higher (P<0.01) during the swing phase. The three L5 extensor peaks after the toe-off are respectively 1.7 (P<0.001), 1.4 (P<0.001) and 1.7 (P<0.01) times higher for the FW group. The main results support the idea that the patterns described during steady-state gait are already observable during gait initiation. This study also provides reference data to further investigate stance limb kinetics in specific or pathologic populations during gait initiation. It will be of particular interest for elderly people, knowing that this population displays atypical trunk postures and present a high risk of falling during this forward stepping.

The Wireless Remote Control Car Based On Arm9

TheInternetof Things (IoT) are of great importance in promoting and guiding development of information technology and economic. At Present, theapplicationoftheIoT develops rapidly, but due to the special requirements of some applications, the existing technology cannot meet them very good. Much research work is doing to build IoT. Wi-Fi basedWirelessremote control has the features of high bandwidth and rate, non-line-transmission ability, large-scale data collection and high cost-effective, and it has the capability of video monitoring, which cannot be realized with RF. The research on Wi-Fi based remote control car has high practical significance to the development oftheInternetof Things. Based on the current research work ofapplicationsthe characteristics of Wi-Fi, this paper discusses controlling the car by using Wi-Fi module along with the conditions can be monitored through remote PC or Lap top which supports Wi-Fi technology. In PC or Lap top two tabs are present. In the first tab we can monitor the conditions and in the second tab four buttons are present to control the car in forward, back ward, left side and right side directions.

A Hybrid Approach for Content Based Image Retrieval System

Processing of a two-dimensional picture are generally refers to term digital image processing through a digital computer .Also say it implies digital processing of some two-dimensional data . Include methodology for query image in my project work are based on matching and retrieval & Euclidean distance are used for distance calculation. Initially for feature extraction different feature like row sum, column sum, back ward diagonal sum, diagonal sum, for ward diagonal sum are used .In next Only histogram method are used where Threshold value are used for comparison . In final step row sum, column sum, back ward diagonal sum, diagonal sum, far ward diagonal sum and histogram method are combining applied to images stored in the database. The feature vector of database images is stored as .mat file .Distance calculation between the feature vector of the images stored in the database and the feature vector of the query image is accepted.

Mining Techniques in Network Security to Enhance Intrusion Detection Systems

In intrusion detection systems, classifiers still suffer from several drawbacks such as data dimensionality and dominance, different network feature types, and data impact on the classification . In this paper two significant enhancementsare presented to solve these drawbacks.The first enhancementis an improved feature selection using sequential backw ard search and information gain.This, in turn, extracts valuable features that enhance positively the detection rate and reduce the false positive rate. The second enhancement is transferring nominal network features to numeric onesby exploiting the discrete random variable and the probability mass function to solve the pr oblem of different feature types,the problem of data dominance, and data impact on the classification. The latter is combined to known normalization methods to achieve a significant hybrid normalization approach . Finally, an intensive and comparative study approves the efficiency of these enhancements and shows better performance comparing to other proposed methods.

Commodity Investing

This article reviews the literature on commodities from the perspective of an investor. We re-examine some of the early papers in the literature using recent data and find that the empirical support for the theory of normal backwardation as an explanation for the commodity risk premium is weak and that the evidence is more consistent with storage decisions. We then review the behavior of the main participants in the commodity futures markets with a particular focus on their impact on prices. Although there is continued disagreement in the literature about the role of speculative activity, our results show that money managers are generally momentum (positive feedback) traders, while producers are net short and contrarian (negative feedback) traders. There is less evidence that index traders and swap dealers trade based on past futures returns.

Segmenting Supply Chain Risk Using E/CTRM Systems: Unifying Theory of Commodity Hedging and Arbitrage

The complexity of managing physical and financial risk throughout the commodity production, processing and merchandising chain presents numerous challenges. To solve this problem commercials are increasingly turning to Energy and Commodity Transaction Risk Management (E/CTRM) systems. Still, risk management functionality within these systems is reported as falling short of requirements. Our discussion, in response, provides an economic framework for developing commodity risk policy and evaluation tools. In doing so, we unify the theory of normal backwardation with theory of storage, macroeconomic general equilibrium with multiple equilibria and microeconomic agents, basis trading with arbitrage strategies, and the hedging response function with elastic/inelastic supply-demand economics. After establishing axioms and rules of inference, we investigate the agribusiness supply chain to help illustrate application.