Average Economic Growth Rate Research Articles

DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO SELECTION AND ORIENTATION PROPOSAL FOR KEY ECONOMIC SECTORS SUPPORTING THE STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OF DIEN BIEN PROVINCIAL PLANNING (2021-2030) WITH A VISION TO 2050

The Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) for the "Dien Bien Provincial Planning for the 2021-2030 period, with a vision to 2050" is conducted on the basis of Viet Nam's legislative framework, national and regional planning, as well as the economic development orientation of Dien Bien province. In this article, potentially environmentally impacting content of the planning will be discussed, in which, development scenarios will be proposed and feasible scenario for the development of Dien Bien Province, the development targets, and orientations of important economic sectors will be selected. Three growth scenarios have been proposed for Dien Bien Province: the baseline scenario, the high growth scenario, and the breakthrough scenario. The most feasible one is the high growth scenario. In this scenario, the main specific targets by 2030 are: The average economic growth rate in the 2021-2030 period is 10.51%/year, in which the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector and the industry - construction sector will grow at the rate of 6.54% and 18.64%/year, respectively, in which the figure for the industry sector is 17.30%/year and that of the service sector is 7.15%/year. Regarding the economic structure by 2030, the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector will account for 12.0%; the industry - construction sector will account for 44.3% (in which the share of the industry sector is 15.4%) and the figure for the service sector is 39.6% of the province’s Gross National Produc (GRDP). The research oriented the development of a number of important sectors such as: industry, construction, tourism, trade and services, and agriculture, forestry and fishery. Selecting feasible development scenarios with specific targets will contribute significantly to proposing development orientations for sectors having great impacts on the environment to support the SEA of Dien Bien Provincial Planning for the 2021-2030 period, with a vision to 2050.

Applicability of Financial Inclusion Theories and Rural Development Theories in the Implementation of the Parish Development Model (PDM) in Uganda

This article provides guidance on how to implement the Parish Development Model, which was launched in February 2022 as the government's multi-sectorial strategy to achieve socioeconomic transformation by converting 39% of Ugandan households from the subsistence economy to the money economy. Uganda, often known as the Pearl of Africa, has seen national development plans incorporate Vision 2040 goals, and it is now undertaking its third National Development Plan. To complete the 2040 vision cycle, three further identical projects must be done. President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni highlighted Financial Inclusion as one of the 17 implementation strategies, since Uganda's monetary poverty rate (the proportion of the population earning less than US$1.04 per day) has increased over the preceding nine years, from 19.7% in 2012/13 to 21.4% in 2016/17. Despite an average annual economic growth rate of 4.7%, the number of underprivileged individuals rose to 8.7 million in 2019/20 from 6.6 million in 2012/13. As a consequence, the Parish Development Model was implemented in rural regions to eliminate poverty. Financial inclusion and rural development principles can help to assist this economic growth plan. As a result, this study investigates how these principles have acted as guides for effective parish development model implementation, as well as recommendations to ensure that they are consistent with rural people's long-term aspirations. Keywords: Financial inclusion and Rural Development theories, Parish Development Model

Poziom dochodu a wzrost gospodarczy i jego wahania na świecie

Purpose – The aim of the article is to show the impact of differences in the level of income on the rate of economic growth and its fluctuations in various regions of the world economy. Research method – Various research methods were used: descriptive analysis, comparative analysis and analysis of statistical data on economic growth in the global economy and its regions. The division of the world according to the World Bank into: “low‑income economies”, “lower middle‑income economies”, “upper middle‑income economies” and “high‑income economies”. Results – The average annual rate of economic growth measured by the level of GDP and GDP per capita and its fluctuations vary in individual groups of countries depending on the level of income. Low‑income countries cope the worst with economic growth and its stability. In turn, the highest rate of economic growth and a relatively smaller problem with its cyclicality are characteristic of countries with higher middle income. Lower‑middle-income countries are closer to this group (greater similarity) than high‑income countries. Originality / value / implications / recommendations – The article addresses issues that are rarely discussed in the literature. What is worth emphasizing is the time scope of the research, which covers the last 40 years. Thus, it fills the existing research gap to some extent.

ANALISIS KINERJA EKONOMI DAERAH HASIL PEMEKARAN (STUDI KOMPARATIF KABUPATEN PASAMAN BARAT, DHARMASRAYA, SOLOK SELATAN)

Regional Autonomy is implemented so that regions can explore regional potential and be independent in managing existing resources. One of the policies for implementing regional autonomy is the granting of authority to regions to carry out expansion as part of community aspirations. After regional expansion, regions are required to be able to overcome their economic problems, such as increasing economic growth, reducing poverty rates, reducing unemployment rates, improving income distribution, and reducing development inequality. This research aims to see how far the regions resulting from this expansion have developed, An evaluation was carried out by measuring the Economic Performance Index (IKE) in the three districts resulting from the expansion, namely West Pasaman district, Dharmasraya district, and South Solok district. The economic performance index is the result of the average rate of economic growth, the ratio of district GRDP to provincial GRDP, GDP rate per capita, and poverty level. This research uses secondary data with descriptive analysis. The research results show that Dharmasraya district is a district with a better economic performance index than West Pasaman district and South Solok district.
 

Socio-Economic Development of Tibet in the 10th Five-Year Plan (2001–2005). Part 8

Fourth session of the 9th NPC, held in Beijing from March 5 to 15, 2001, approved the draft of the 10th five-year plan (2001–2005). The plan provided for an annual increase in China's GDP by 7 %. At the same time, the volume of the economy over five years was to increase by 40 % and amount to ¥ 12.5 trillion in 2005. Plan targets were largely met and exceeded. The average annual economic growth rate was 9.5 %, significantly higher than the world average (3.8 %). The volume of GDP in 2005 amounted to ¥ 18.2 billion.The standard of living in Tibet in the years under review was about two times lower than the Chinese average. Therefore, the region was provided with advanced growth rates of 12 % per year. The main event of the five-year plan in Tibet was the construction of the Qinghai-Tibet railway.

The Relationsip between Population Ages 30-34 and Inflation of The Growth Domestic Bruto Inflator

This study aims to determine the relationship between the population aged 30-34 years and inflation as measured by the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) deflator. The method used in this study is the Granger Causality Test. The impact of this research can be seen from this study's results, which is men aged 30-34 years are very influential in the economy. Moreover, most workers in this world are men. The population aged 30-34 greatly influences economic growth and inflation. The male population aged 30-34 has more influence on economic growth and inflation than the female population aged 30-34. In the opposite direction, an increase in unemployment causes GDP to grow more slowly or even fall. Labor is one of the factors driving GDP growth. Increased population growth also has a positive effect on government spending. However, the inflation rate will also have a negative impact on government spending. A high inflation rate can worsen the value of a country's real GDP. If GDP increases, then a country's economic growth is improving. And if the average rate of economic growth in a country from year to year is higher, the income per capita of the community will also increase.

Should we revive PAYG? On the optimal pension system in view of current economic trends

Over the last decades, we have generally seen a gradual shift from pay-as-you-go (PAYG) to funding to finance pensions. In this paper, we develop an analytical framework that includes three models of pension design, allowing us to study the role of efficiency, redistribution, and time-consistency in pension policies. We use these models to analyse the impact of several trends (a permanent decline in the rate of return on financial markets, a decline in the average rate of economic growth, decreased output volatility and increased capital market volatility) on the optimal balance between PAYG and funding. Although the models lead to similar qualitative results, general conclusions cannot easily be drawn as the various trends work in opposite directions. A numerical simulation experiment with a calibrated version of the time-consistent model shows that it may be wise to halt the shift towards more funding. There is insufficient evidence however to call for a real revival of PAYG.

Trajectories for South African employment after COVID-19

The COVID-19 health response shut down the South African economy for a period, and then continued to constrain face-to-face services such as tourism, hospitality and personal services. These industries create the majority of jobs in all middle- and high-income economies. The COVID-19 interventions further aggravated pre-existing and rising unemployment and poverty levels. By 2021, only 42% of the working-age population in South Africa was employed, as compared to the National Development Plan’s target of 60% by 2030. South Africa has had high unemployment since at least 1978, with an historical policy path that appears to direct the economy towards slow growth and low employment. This article outlines the results of employment scenarios modelling: the purpose is to envisage the future of employment in South Africa in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, with a view to 2050. Two ‘plausible’ scenarios are modelled. The upper and lower trajectories are aligned to historical growth paths between 1970 and 2019, with three decades experiencing an average 1.5% GDP growth and two decades an average 3.6% growth. An average economic growth rate rising from 2% to 3.5% between 2022 to 2050 would result in the achievement of the National Development Plan’s employment targets. The modelling also shows what the employment trajectory might have been in the absence of the COVID pandemic. Significance: This article evaluates the potential pathway for South African employment after COVID-19. After a rapid and significant fall caused by policies to manage COVID-19, employment might only recover to peak 2018 levels by 2024–2026. The COVID-19 pandemic may have long-term implications for employment. In the absence of the pandemic, there could have been between 500 000 and 1.6 million more people working by 2050.

OVERVIEW OF AGRICULTURE IN DIFFERENT PERIODIC PLANS OF NEPAL

Since the first periodic plan, the government of Nepal has strongly emphasized the agricultural sector. This paper aims to provide an overview of the agriculture sector in different periodic plans implemented in Nepal. Agriculture gets the first priority for the first time by allocating the all-time highest proportion (34.8 %) of total outlay in the fifth periodic plan. National concern for the environment, sustainable development, and organic agriculture arises in the eighth periodic plan. The Agriculture Perspective Plan was implemented from the ninth five-year plan, which was able to achieve annual 3.2% AGDP growth against the set target of 4.7%. The fourteenth plan was quite satisfactory compared to other plans in terms of achieving an annual average economic and agricultural growth rate of 6.9% and 4.2% against the set target of 7.2% and 4.7%, respectively. Nine five-year plans and five-three-year plans have been successfully implemented till now. Despite these planned efforts, there is the dismal performance of the agricultural sector in Nepal. The fifteenth five-year plan is an ongoing plan that has national strategies to improve agriculture production and productivity through mechanization, modernization, commercialization, and industrialization. This review helps to identify the performance of the agriculture sector and the gaps or constraints in different plans. Thus, it aids in identifying policies and sectorial programs that the economy requires in the future.

Analisis Sektor Unggulan Dalam Pembangunan Wilayah Di Kabupaten Ogan Ilir

Regional development and national development are interrelated with each other, where the national development target in Indonesia is to create economic growth and equalize development results, including income distribution between regions. The concept of the leading sector economy explains that all economic activities that fall into two parts are basic and non-basic. The basis or superiority is an activity of a group that produces results in the form of services or goods that aim to send far out of the group's area, either regionally, within the country, or abroad. Ogan Ilir Regency is one of the areas in South Sumatra Province which has various sectors where the average economic growth rate during 2013- 2017 is 5.34% (BPS, 2018) with a growth rate, so the researcher aims to analyze the leading sectors in the regional development of Ogan Ilir Regency, it is hoped that it can provide important information about the base sector that can be the mainstay of Ogan Ilir Regency so that regional planning can be carried out in accordance with the potential development of superior commodities obtained. The method used is quantitative analysis: the rate of economic growth, LQ analysis to determine the basis and non-base leading sectors, and shiftshare analysis to identify the superior regional sectors by comparing them with larger regions (regional or national). The results obtained are that there are 7 of the 17 sectors that are the basis, and Based on the results of the ShiftShare calculation there are 4 (four) slow moving sectors, namely; 1) Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries; 2) Mining and Quarrying; 3) Financial and Insurance Services; and 4) Other Services. Meanwhile, 13 (thirteen) other sectors are moving progressively. Kata Kunci : Regional Development, Leading Sector, economic

An empirical analysis of the determinants of the U.S. banks’ profitability

This study investigates the determinants of the profitability of U.S. banks. Employing quarterly data, this paper further examines the historical and recent trends for all U.S. banks from 1996 to 2019 in the relationship between return and assets (ROA) and other bank internal (or endogenous) profitability contributors such as net interest margin (NIM), loan loss reserves, ratio of non-performing loans to gross loans, and external (or exogenous) macroeconomic variables, such as the 30-year average mortgage rate, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) economic growth rate, unemployment rate, interest rate, inflation rate and openness (i.e., exports + imports/GDP) by using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator technique. The results reveal that bank-specific variables, including net interest margin, loan loss reserves and non-performing loans, have a significant impact on bank profitability in the United States. Similarly, the results show that macroeconomic variables, namely the average mortgage rate, economic growth, and unemployment rate, exert significant effects on the U.S. banks’ profitability. The results further indicate that changes in openness are detrimental to bank profitability. The implications are discussed.

Fiscal policy responses for sustainable post-COVID-19 recovery: Taiwan's experience

PurposeThis study examined Taiwan's fiscal policy responses for sustainable post-COVID-19 recovery. The costs and benefits, aligned with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), of fiscal policy responses were identified and valued. Although it may be too early to conclude whether the benefits outweigh the costs, the performance and outcome of fiscal measures were evaluated.Design/methodology/approachThe study relied on secondary data, including governmental official data, legislative reviews, audit reports and public opinion polls to understand objective and subjective benefits and costs in economic, social and environmental dimensions. However, while the costs were measured in monetary terms, some of the benefits (i.e. satisfaction) could not be monetized; therefore, this study focused on identifying and valuing benefits from fiscal measures but set aside the issues of monetizing and discounting.FindingsWith respect to the costs, a special budget of NT$840 billion was approved, of which 66.83% was allocated for economic development, 33.12% for social welfare and 0.05% for environmental protection. In terms of the benefits, the economic growth rate was forecasted to be 5.88% in 2021 and 3.69% in 2022, while the average economic growth rate was 2.77% during the period from 2012 to 2019. Social equity was emphasized as various and customized bailout packages were provided to impacted individuals and industries. Moreover, most citizens were confident in the government's efforts to combat the pandemic and stimulate recovery in Taiwan.Originality/valueThis paper comprehensively details Taiwan's experience of fiscal policy responses for sustainable post-COVID-19 recovery. The cost-benefit approach was conceptually adopted. Bearing the value of “build back better” and “rebuild better,” the benefits of fiscal measures are promising, although there are indebted costs of the special budget.

Drivers of the peaking and decoupling between CO2 emissions and economic growth around 2030 in China.

Reaching the peak of carbon dioxide emissions is the basis and premise of carbon neutrality. In this paper, the factor decomposition model was used to analyze the influencing factors and effects of carbon dioxide emissions. Causal chain model of elastic decoupling was established. The historical decoupling state between carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth and the decoupling effect of its influencing factors were analyzed. The prediction model of carbon dioxide emissions was used to explore the change trend of China's carbon dioxide emissions and its peak in the short and medium term in the future. The elastic decoupling trend between carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth was predicted. The results show that economic growth is the main force driving carbon dioxide emissions. Both energy intensity and energy consumption structure have a strong inhibiting effect on carbon dioxide emissions except for a few years, but the former has a more significant inhibiting effect than the latter. In general, the elastic decoupling between carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth has experienced a state from weak decoupling to growth linkage and then to weak decoupling. And this weak decoupling trend will continue to increase in the short and medium term. During the 14th Five-year and 15th Five-year period, if the average annual economic growth rate will be maintained at 4.61 to 5.85%, energy intensity will be reduced by 16.14 to 18.37%, and the proportion of non-fossil energy in the energy consumption structure at the end of the 14th, 15th, and 16th Five-Year Plan period will be around 19.9%, 23.2%, and 26.1%, respectively, and then the intensity of carbon dioxide emissions will continue to decline. It is expected to reach the peak of carbon dioxide emissions between 10,453 and 10,690 billion tons from 2025 to 2027. And the earlier the peak time is, the smaller the peak is, which would provide valuable time for carbon neutrality and room to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in the medium and long term.

Determinants of linkages between foreign direct investment firms and domestic firms in Vietnam

Foreign direct investment (FDI) is an important sector of many developing economies in general and of Vietnam in particular. In Vietnam, the FDI sector contributed up to 27.7% of the average economic growth rate of 6.0% per year from 2010 to 2018. Besides this contribution, operations of FDI in Vietnam reveal many limitations, the most noticeable of which is the weak linkage between FDI and Vietnamese firms. This article examines determinants of FDI-domestic firms linkage in Vietnam. This research looks at all three types of linkage, including horizontal linkage, vertical linkage, and supply-backward linkage. Factors that have a positive impact on linkages are provincial economic growth, firms’ technology level, regional factors, being located in industrial zones, and operating in the manufacturing sector. Macroeconomic instability has a negative impact on linkage. The quality of economic governance, as measured by the Provincial Competitiveness Index, is important for attracting FDI, but does not affect linkages.

Technology adoption and the middle‐income trap: Lessons from the Middle East and East Asia

AbstractThis paper documents the existence of a “middle‐income trap” for the Middle East and North Africa region and contrasts the evidence with that of the East Asia and Pacific region. The results are twofold. First, nonparametric regressions show that the average rate of economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa has not only been significantly lower than that in the East Asia and Pacific region, but has also tended to drop at an earlier level of income. Second, econometric results point to the Middle East and North Africa having experienced a relatively slow pace of technology adoption in general‐purpose technologies and that a slower adoption pace of technology is associated with significantly lower economic growth. The paper concludes that barriers to the adoption of general‐purpose technologies related to the lack of contestability in key sectors constitute an important channel of transmission for the middle‐income trap.

Culinary Places Recommendation System in Bekasi City Using the Simple Additive Weighting Method

Bekasi city, based on data from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) in 2018, shows the average Economic Growth Rate (LPE) of 5.82% from 2013 to 2016. Based on this growth, Bekasi city has business opportunities, for example culinary business, that has already spread around Bekasi city. The number of culinary places can cause problems when visitors determine culinary places that fit their criteria. Many visitors usually rely on information from relatives in determine culinary places, so this allows a mismatch between the recommendations of relatives and the criteria they want. Based on the problem, one of the proposed solutions needs to be made a method to support decisions that can provide recommendations in determining culinary places for visitors. The method used in determining the recommendation of culinary places is Simple Additive Weighting (SAW). In the process of calculating the method there are alternatives and assessment criteria used, there are several assessment criteria, namely price, number of menus, rating, and distance. The result shows the recommended alternative culinary place is the eighth alternative (A8) since the alternative has the highest preference value of 0.85. Therefore, the proposed system can be integrated in the culinary website to support user in choosing the culinary place.

Comprehensive Forecast of Demand for Inter-regional Rail Freight Transport

A forecasting system for calculating the demand for inter-regional rail freight transport is necessary for assessing the growth and development opportunities of transport infrastructure, connectivity of regions and spatial development. We examine the regional economy and interregional relations based on the existing system of rail freight transport. The statistics of the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat), international statistical agencies and the data of JSC Russian Railways served as raw data. The research methodology includes input-output methods and models, in particular, a static input-output model, as well as methods of correlation and regression analysis. We calculated projected rail freight traffic for two macroeconomic development scenarios. A better alternative (target scenario) of economic development, demonstrating an average annual economic growth rate of 102.2 % for the period 2015–2035, would lead to a 16.2 % increase in the rail freight traffic by 2035 compared to the baseline scenario. The second scenario is based on the hypothesis of economic stagnation at the level of 1%. Such an increase is achieved by domestic transport, in which the share of construction freight for approximately 30.9 % of total traffic by 2035, and export transport, where the share of energy freight is 44.1 % of the total. An increase in shipment in total rail freight transport will be provided by enterprises of the Central, Northwestern, Volga and Siberian Federal Districts. The proposed tools allow sub- stantiating the strategic development of the railway system, assessing the cooperation between the economy and rail transport. The results can be used for analytical and predictive support of the strategic development of the railway system in the Russian Federation. The future research will focus on expanding the set of factors for considering the regional characteristics of economic development, a more meaningful assessment of the connectivity of regions, not only in the system of rail freight transport.

Российская наука: территориальные проблемы развития

В статье рассматриваются проблемы пространственной организации исследовательской деятельности в нашей стране. Отмечается неравномерность территориального распределе­ния объектов науки, которая усилилась за последние годы в процессе падения средних темпов роста экономики в пять раз по сравнению с ключевыми задачами Стратегии-2020. Анали­зируется главная зона научных исследований, образующая стержень социально-экономического развития России. На основе многофакторного регрессионного анализа определя­ются города, способные стать ведущими научными центрами этой зоны. В западной части страны численность населения такого города должна превышать 700 тыс. жителей, в восточ­ной части - 500 тыс. жителей. Даётся оценка положительным изменениям, которые станут результатом строительства но­вых научно-образовательных центров в Кузбассе, Нижего­родской, Тюменской и Белгородской областях, в Пермском крае (в соответствии с национальным проектом «Наука»).
 Анализируется Столичный регион, включающий крупнейшую в стране групповую систему населённых мест. Характеризуются условия размещения объектов науки в ядре групповой системы и в её периферийной зоне. Рассматривается объединение на единой площадке подразделений Национального космического центра, создаваемого в Филях. Ожидается, что оно обеспечит повышение эффективности производственных, конструкторских и научно-исследовательских работ. Рассматривается пере­базирование группы московских институтов в связи с необо­снованным изъятием их земельных участков. Это обусловлено интересами рыночных структур и недостаточной заинтересо­ванностью Минобрнауки в создании условий, способствующих производительному труду учёных. Выдвигается предложение по разработке для Столичного региона Отраслевой схемы террито­риального планирования исследовательской деятельности*).

Should we revive PAYG? On the optimal pension system in view of current economic trends

In many countries, both pay-as-you-go (PAYG) and funding are used to finance pensions, although the balance between the two principles differs a lot between countries. Over the last decades, many countries made a gradual transition to more funding. In this paper, we develop an analytical framework that includes three models of pension design, allowing us to study the role of efficiency aspects, redistributional aspects and political-economy aspects. We subsequently analyze the impact of several trends (a permanent decline in the rate of return on financial markets, a decline in the average rate of economic growth, decreased output volatility and increased capital market volatility) on the optimal balance between PAYG and funding. We argue that it may be optimal to revise the gradual transition to more funding and to revive PAYG.

Vietnam economic structure in 2025 - Forecast by ARIMA model

Vietnam's economy, over the past 30 years, has gained great achievements, rapidly transforming Vietnam from one of the poorest countries in the world to a low-middle-income country. In 2020, although Vietnam's economy was heavily affected by the Covid-19 pandemic, natural disasters, the average economic growth rate in the five years 2016-2020 is still among the fastest-growing countries in the region and the world. The economic structure has changed with a plunge in the proportion of agriculture, forestry and fishery sector along with the increasing proportion of the service sector. This paper uses the ARIMA model to forecast the economic structure of Vietnam in 2025. The research data is the production value of the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector; the technology and construction sector and the service sector from 1987 to 2019 do not include the value of the product tax with the subtraction of product subsidies area. The steps to perform the forecast include: checking the stationary of the time series, analyzing the correlation diagram, estimating the ARIMA model, testing the hypotheses and finally forecasting the value in the year 2025 of economic sectors. The forecast results show that from 2020 to 2025, the economic structure has a strong shift from the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector along with a part of the industrial and construction sector to the service sector. Specifically, the proportion of the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector will decrease from 16% in 2019 to about 12% in 2025. The proportion of the industrial and construction sector reduces from 38% in 2019 to 36% in 2025. The service sector will increase its proportion from 46% in 2019 to 52% in 2025. Research results contribute to a quantitative basis in policy enactment and implementation at the macro and micro levels.