Average Economic Growth Rate Research Articles

Экономическое лидерство и “лидерская рента”

Nowadays, along with qualitative economic parameters, the absolute size of national economies becomes particularly important for global competition. Due to liberalization of external economic relations and processes of globalization the quantitative economic leadership by a nation produces a potential for reaping certain economic gains, and its combined value can be substantial. We call this amount the “leadership rent”. It stems from natural processes like competitive behavior of the transnational corporations or transformation of the leading national monetary units into the reserve currencies. Current configuration of the global system is characterized by the dominance of four leading economies: USA, EU, Japan and China, and the latter is now replacing the US in its role as the world’s biggest economy in terms of PPP. The emergence of new dominant leaders in the near future is unlikely while deposition of Japan and/or EU cannot be excluded. Despite the presence of the “leadership rent”, the economic dominance of the current leaders in recent years was diminished. This indicates that there exist certain factors preventing the leaders from further consolidating their position. These factors represent the flip side of the economic benefits of the leadership and demonstrate the new possibilities of catching-up progress by the developing countries in the era of globalization. In this regard Russia's role in the future world economic hierarchy now becomes a matter of particular concern as the country is about to persistently lag behind the world average rate of economic growth at least in the middle term. Reversal of this trend will require fundamental policy changes including restart of the deep structural reforms and restoration of unimpeded integration of the Russian economy into the global economic system. Acknowledgements. The research was supported by the grant of the Foundation «World Public Forum ”Dialogue of Civilizations”». The authors would like to thank the members of the Editorial Board of the “World Economy and International Relations” for valuable policy comments made during the discussion of the article.

CAN GOVERNMENTS LEVERAGE PROCUREMENT TO FOSTER DEVELOPMENT? EVIDENCE AND PROJECTIONS FROM PUBLIC SECTOR EXPENDITURES IN TURKEY

ABSTRACT This paper analyzes public sector expenditures in developing countries, and assesses the viability of leveraging procurement to meet development objectives. Average economic growth rates are significantly higher for developing countries than advanced economies. The robust growth can yield tax revenues that fund public expenditures. However, developing countries are characterized by inadequate physical infrastructure, which, in turn, negatively affects economic competitiveness. Domestic industry typically lacks the technological and productive capacity to meet the physical capital demand. Consequently, public procurement of imported machinery and equipment represents a significant share of total government outlays in most countries. We present data from 67 developing countries, and also forecasts from our case study country, Turkey, which demonstrate an upward trend in public expenditures, and argue that the rise in public expenditures on foreign capital is likely to be sustained over both the medium and long term due to both push and pull factors. We find that medium and large developing economies possess sufficient purchasing power to leverage public procurement in support of broader economic development goals. Keywords public procurement; development, government spending, international

BRICS: Opportunity to India to Be a Superpower

th summit of BRICS held in Brazil between 14 th to 16 July, 2014 got remarkable exposure than ever before. Set-up of New Development Bank which has strength of breaking monopoly of IMF and IBRD and Contingency Reserve Arrangement (CRA) are the two key outcomes. The strength and validity of BRICS at global level highly depend upon interrelationship among BRICS members, particularly on India and China. Keeping all bilateral controversies aside PM Modi and Xi Jinping opinioned parallel remarks on present international politics and expected changes in the international institutions. They talked about equal opportunities as well as challenges of both the countries. Both they came close beyond the expectation and talked on economic issues as well as border dispute and cross border terrorism. Both they invited each other; especially Xi Jinping preferably appealed Modi to participate in the meeting of Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) to be held at Beijing in China in November, 2014 and giving green signal to attend Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and indirectly become full member of SCO. Hon. Putin's meet also proved fruitful. China's positive attitude and cooperation to India at the same time support of other members of BRICS is a precise indication to become India as a Superpower. I. Introduction: In the year 2009, developing countries viz. Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (in 2010) coming together established BRICS association. The average economic growth rate of BRICS countries in the last 40 years remained 6-7 percent. These all economies have adopted economic liberalization policy. Hence, for the effective use of their abundant natural and human resources as well as industrial development they are in need of foreign capital investment. At the global scenario BRICS has incredible strengths. BRICS covers one fourth part of the geographical area of the world, 40 percent of World population. Its combine GDP is of $ 24 trillion and plays important role in World trade. Among these five Russia is affluent in the production of crude oil and natural gas, China is dominant in manufacturing sector, Brazil is leading to agriculture production, South Africa is famous in tourism and India is ahead in technology. If these countries come together and thinking seriously helped each other, would achieve tremendous economic growth and succeed to be a power block in the World politics.

Устойчивость экономического развития стран Юго-Восточной Азии

The method of determination of turning points of economic development and
 evaluation of economic dynamics. The turning points of economic development
 proposed to diagnose on anomalous dispersion rates of economic growth. Type
 the economic dynamics of the country invited to be determined by comparing
 the average rate of economic growth and the growth of the world economy.
 The risk of instability of economic dynamics are encouraged to estimate
 indicator, reflecting the relative variation in the pace of economic growth in
 comparison with the variation of the growth rate of the world economy.
 To determine the prospects for economic development in South-East Asia
 investigated the economic dynamics of Burma (Myanmar), Brunei, Vietnam,
 Cambodia (Kampuchea), Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and
 the Philippines. It is established that the countries of Southeast Asia except
 Brunei is developing at an accelerated pace. Rates of growth of economy of
 these countries exceed the growth rate of the world economy. South-East Asia
 countries except Brunei are developing steadily. Stability and development of
 Vietnam and Laos exceed the level of stability of development of the world
 economy. Therefore, in South-East Asia should be considered to be preferable
 business and trade partners of Vietnam and Laos.

The Measurement of Carbon Emission Effect of Construction Land Changes in Anhui Province Based on the Extended LMDI Model

Abstract: In the context of “two–wheel drive” development mode, China's construction land shows significant expansion characteristics. The carbon emission effect of construction land changes is an important factor for the increase of carbon emissions in the atmosphere. In this study, the drivers of carbon emissions in Anhui Province from 1997 to 2011 were quantitatively measured using the improved Kaya identity and Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index. The results show that: economic growth, expansion of construction land and changes in population density have incremental effects on carbon emissions. The average contribution rate of economic growth as the first driver is 266.32 percent. The construction land expansion is an important driving factor with annual mean carbon effect of 6.4057 million tons and annual mean contribution rate of 187.30 percent. But the change in population density has little impact on carbon emission driving. Energy structure changes and energy intensity reduction have inhibitory effec...

Optics Valley of China and Its Social Security Issue

Rapid development by innovative enterprises is the goal of Optics Valley of China. Currently 1,951 hi-tech companies have started operations in the valley. The anchor industries include optoelectronic information, bioengineering and medicine, environmental protection and energy saving, high-end equipment manufacturing and hi-tech services. Since 2000, the average annual economic growth rate of Optics Valley has been nearly 30%. Optics Valley continues to upgrade the development of an open economy and to attract international well-known companies with the advantage of location, policy, industry and environment. A strategic agreement between Optics Valley of China and Silicon Valley of the United States was signed in February 2012. Economic development and people’s livelihood are always the priorities in China. Toward that end, Optics Valley has adopted a framework of requirements specifying the social security responsibility of the foreign-funded enterprises in the valley as a step to accelerate the formation of a social security system. This article analyses the status of industry development, the region’s investment environment and the regulations governing social security in Optics Valley. The intent is to help foreign entrepreneurs interested in establishing an operation in Optics Valley.

Trade Openness And Economic Growth Revisited

<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; margin: 0in 0.4in 0pt 0.5in; tab-stops: .5in 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in 3.0in 3.5in 4.0in 4.5in 5.0in 5.5in 6.0in 6.5in;"><span style="font-family: Batang; font-size: x-small;">Our study attempted to establish how positive and how robust the relationship between average economic growth rate and the pace at which exporting activity grows using Extreme Bounds Analysis on Dollar's (1992) 95 nation openness index.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">  </span>Our results indicate that not only there is indeed such a positive and robust relationship, but there is also an equally robust but negative relationship between average economic growth rates and the real exchange rate distortion index, as well as a positive and robust effect between export share of GDP with the investment share in GDP, which in turn is robustly linked to output growth and GDP expansion.</span></p>

Macroeconomic effects of high oil prices on the Swiss economy: 2003 2008

In this paper, we examine the macroeconomic impact of the high oil price era between 2003 and mid-2008 on the Swiss economy. Using a medium-scale disequilibrium macroeconometric model, we focus not only on the effects of oil prices on the real GDP growth but also on their effects on demand-side components, prices, labour market and capacity output. Our simulation results indicate that high oil prices still had a non-negligible negative impact on economic performance despite the observed above average real economic growth rates. We have also found that an accommodative monetary policy might help in smoothing the negative effects of oil price shocks.

Tourism and economic development: The beach disease?

This paper analyses empirically the danger of a Dutch Disease Effect in tourism dependent countries in the long run. Data on 134 countries of the world over the period 1970–2007 is used. In a first step the long-run relationship between tourism and economic growth is analysed in a cross-country setting. The results are then checked in a panel data framework on GDP per capita levels that allows to control for reverse causality, non-linearity and interactive effects. It is found that there is no danger of a Beach Disease Effect. On the contrary, tourism dependent countries do not face real exchange rate distortion and deindustrialisation but higher than average economic growth rates. Investment in physical capital, such as for instance transport infrastructure, is complementary to investment in tourism.

Systémy měnových kurzů, jejich volba v tranzitivních ekonomikách a dopady na vývoj inflace a ekonomického růstu

In this paper we discuss the issue of the choice of exchange rate regimes in transitive economies and the effect of exchange rate policy on the development of macroeconomic indicators (e. g. the average growth rate of real GDP in domestic currency and the development of domestic inflation). It is obvious that exchange rate policy is not a passive factor, at least in the medium term. Our analysis indicates that the fixed foreign exchange rate arrangements policy does not necessarily mean stability of the foreign exchange rates. Neither percentage exchange rate changes of fixed rates, nor their volatility measured by the standard deviation are lower than the average change is over the examined period. Our analysis indicates also that the inflation rate is growing in accordance with the growth of depreciation of the foreign exchange rate and the growth of its volatility measured by the standard deviation. It was cleared that the higher volatility of the effective nominal exchange rate is reflected by the lower average economic growth rate of transitive countries.

Evaluation of the Mesoscale Meteorological Model (MM5)-Community Multi-Scale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) Performance in Hindcast and Forecast of Ground-Level Ozone

This paper presents the first attempt to apply the Mesoscale Meteorological Model (MM5)-Community Multi-Scale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) model system to simulate ground-level ozone (O3) over the continental Southeast Asia (CSEA) region for both hindcast and forecast purposes. Hindcast simulation was done over the CSEA domain for two historical O3 episodes, January 26– 29, 2004 (January episode, northeast monsoon) and March 24–26, 2004 (March episode, southwest monsoon). Experimental forecast was done for next-day hourly O3 during January 2006 over the central part of Thailand (CENTHAI). Available data from 20 ambient monitoring stations in Thailand and 3 stations in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, were used for the episode analysis and for the model performance evaluation. The year 2000 anthropogenic emission inventory prepared by the Center for Global and Regional Environmental Research at the University of Iowa was projected to the simulation year on the basis of the regional average economic growth rate. Hourly emission in urban areas was prepared using ambient carbon monoxide concentration as a surrogate for the emission intensity. Biogenic emissions were estimated based on data from the Global Emissions Inventory Activity. Hindcast simulations (CSEA) were performed with 0.5° ×0.5° resolution, whereas forecast simulations (CENTHAI) were done with 0.1° ×0.1° hourly emission input data. MM5-CMAQ model system performance during the selected episodes satisfactorily met U.S. Environmental Protection Agency criteria for O3 for most simulated days. The experiment forecast for next-day hourly O3 in January 2006 yielded promising results. Modeled plumes of ozone in both hindcast and forecast cases agreed with the main wind fields and extended over considerable downwind distances from large urban areas.

PENANAMAN MODAL ASING DAN PERTUMBUHAN INDUSTRI DI ASEAN(6), CHINA, INDIA, DAN KOREA SELATAN 1999-2004

The objective of this study is to shed light on the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Asian developing countries and their impact on industrial growth. In order to undertake it, we perform an econometric model based in panel data analysis for 9 countries (such as ASEAN 6, China, India, and Korea) for the 1999-2004 periods. We estimate the simultaneous equation using panel data estimation with fixed effect and random effect. Among the major conclusions we have that the FDI is determined by country risk and variables related to macroeconomic indicators like inflation, risk, economy’s degree of openness and average rate of economic growth, average rate of world economic growth, and level of education. The results also show that the FDI has been closely associated with corruption perception index and performance of FDI in the past. However the other variables, such as the global competitive index and rank of investment performance and potential have no more influential on FDI inflows. Finally, we have that the growth of industrial sector is positively related to the FDI inflows.

How the Japanese Interpret Kaizen: An Exploration of Japanese Spirit

Following its comprehensive defeat in Pacific theatre of World War II and destruction of much of its production capacity, between early 1950s and Oil Crisis of 1973, Japan recorded an average annual economic growth rate of 10% and an average annual export growth rate of 20%. During Oil Shock of 1973, when other countries fell into economic decline, industrial production efficiency enabled Japan to become a competitive and dominant force in world markets (Barnwell, 2007). Such achievement, when other major economies were faltering, lead to intense (Western) analysis and discussion in a hunt to discover source of such success. Ultimately, this success was attributed to two factors: relationship between Government and industry, and success of name corporations including Toyota, Sony, Panasonic, and Honda (Abe & Fitzgerald, 1995). Investigation of these large successful corporations leads to field of and underlying concept of -- a cornerstone of Japanese management -- with Toyota Production System being exemplar of Japanese quality management and operations management techniques.This literature review notes that while much is known about concept of kaizen within organization there remain aspects that are still not fully understood or are misunderstood; that current (English language) academic literature may fail to provide accurate accounts of Japanese point of view, and differences between Japanese and perspectives. For this paper, author has considered only English language literature, including contributions from Japanese academics. For simplicity, reference made to both the US and Western by cited works is considered to imply same entity or idea.

Will the Current Oil Boom Solve the Employment Crisis in the Middle East?

Several reports published at the turn of the new century emphasized the looming employment crisis facing the Middle East and North Africa Region (MENA). These studies described an unprecedented job creation challenge facing the region which requires average annual economic growth rates of 6 to 8 percent between 2000 and 2020, far higher than the average 3.6 percent growth witnessed over the 1990s. Much has changed recently, however, in the region's economic outlook. Oil prices - which had been forecast in 2002 to stay at or below $25 a barrel for the foreseeable future - rose to $29 a barrel in 2003, $53 a barrel in 2005 and even higher in the last two years. This unexpected and dramatic rise in oil prices has been reflected in rising personal incomes and government revenues. Thus, regional GDP growth improved from 2.9 percent in 2002 to an estimated 6.0 percent in 2005 and 2006 and is projected to remain high for the foreseeable future. In turn, the region has seen higher rates of job creation and declining rates of unemployment for the first time in almost two decades. Given these changes, the relevant question becomes whether MENA's labor market pressures have suddenly become manageable. More precisely, has the current oil boom solved the unemployment crisis facing the region? This paper reviews recent developments in MENA's labor markets, focusing on job creation, unemployment and government policies aimed at improving labor market outcomes.

Japan Remodeled: How Government and Industry are Reforming Japanese Capitalism (review)

Reviewed by: Japan Remodeled: How Government and Industry Are Reforming Japanese Capitalism Edward J. Lincoln (bio) Japan Remodeled: How Government and Industry Are Reforming Japanese Capitalism. By Steven K. Vogel. Cornell University Press, Ithaca, 2006. xi, 250 pages. $37.50. The most important intellectual challenge facing social scientists studying contemporary Japan is to figure what is, and is not, happening as a consequence of the economic problems of the 1990s. A society that had finished the 1980s with an average annual economic growth rate of five per cent (1987–91) and had looked forward confidently to more of the same was shocked by the ensuing decade of near stagnation, deflation, collapsing banks, and assorted bureaucratic scandals. These problems were all the more dismaying because many believed that economic success had been the result of a unique "Japanese" economic model: a kinder, gentler, and more successful model of capitalism than that which prevails in the United States. Indeed, much that we think we know about the Japan of the last half century—running the gamut of economics, politics, and social behavior—is under profound pressure for change. But what change is occurring? Why? How successfully? Steven Vogel tackles these critical questions in this book—a task that he acknowledges at the outset as being tricky and difficult. Others will undoubtedly weigh in with further studies in years to come—and if you are an economist, political scientist, sociologist, or anthropologist and are not contemplating doing so yourself, it is high time to join this intellectual enterprise. My own contribution to this subject (Arthritic Japan: The Slow Pace of Economic Reform [Brookings, 2001]) was probably too early, though I am gratified to see that my own conclusions largely match Vogel's (that is, the process is a slow evolutionary one, and Japan is not converging on the American version of market capitalism). But much remains to be [End Page 573] studied, and the process of gradual reform continues to alter the overall picture. The difficulty and shifting nature of this subject notwithstanding, Vogel's book is a very important contribution that should stand up well for a number of years. His approach is careful, nuanced, appropriately eclectic, somewhat skeptical, and very readable. I believe he successfully explains why economic reform is not causing a convergence between the Japanese version of capitalism and that of the United States (puncturing a belief that was popular among Wall Street investors in the late 1990s). He also provides convincing arguments about the uncertain impact of much of the reform effort. The opening chapter of this book lays out the basic issues and a framework for analyzing them. Vogel adopts a broad, encompassing approach that pulls in market forces, institutions, and broader social factors, summarized in his use of "three circles of rationality" facing business and government as they approach reform: simple market-based responses to economic pressures, institutional costs and benefits, and broader social and reputational costs and benefits. He applies these different levels of analysis to both the behavior of firms and the policy decisions of the government. Although this is a book about present and future structural reform, the second chapter provides a necessary review of what went wrong in Japan in the 1990s. A debate has raged among economists over the question of whether flaws in the economic system or macroeconomic policy failures were the primary cause of Japan's "lost decade." Vogel sides largely with the policy failure approach (while acknowledging that the structural flaws and policy failures are intractably interrelated). Further, he reaches the critically important conclusion that the evidence on the strengths and weaknesses of various aspects of the Japanese economic system is ambiguous. Thus, reforms do not appear to be a straightforward response to obvious structural failures (and, therefore, we do not know whether the changes improve or worsen economic outcomes). Chapter three lays out a summary of the reform process—the actors involved and the political process in which they interact—and compares it to both the United States and Germany, bringing in a useful comparative framework. After all, Japan is hardly the only society to have faced serious economic problems...

Culture, Catholics and Condoms

A critical problem facing many of the small island nations of the Pacific is the growing imbalance between population and resources. Families of five or more children are typical of traditional Pacific lifestyles, but in the majority of Pacific countries average population growth rates now exceed average economic growth rates, and there are growing rural-urban inequalities in access to services and wage employment opportunities. Some Pacific countries have used migration to offset natural population increase and earn remittances to supplement national income, but that strategy has several disadvantages, including a tendency to support high fertility. This article argues that despite efforts made by some Pacific countries to reduce their population growth rates, such strategies are unlikely to succeed unless families and communities can be convinced that future benefits from having smaller families will exceed the known advantages of a large family size. Recent initiatives to slow the rate of population increase in the atoll nation of Kiribati are examined and their prospects of success are evaluated in the light of Kiribati culture and prevailing attitudes.

Vietnam?s economy: Achievements and perspective

In last several years, Vietnam’s economy has reached significant achievements. Those are clearly seen by analyzing economic growth, economic structure transformation, trade and investment and Vietnam’s economy competitiveness. However, in the process of development, Vietnam’s economy is still facing many difficulties and challenges. Vietnam is accelerating speed of innovation process, is active and quicker in international economic integration in order to complete the economic – social objectives in the period of 2001–2005 with annual average economic growth rate of 7.5%.

Tax structure and economic growth

Past theoretical work predicts that higher corporate tax rates should decrease economic growth rates, while the effects of high personal tax rates are less clear. In this paper, we explore how tax policies in fact affect a country's growth rate, using cross-country data during 1970–1997. We find that statutory corporate tax rates are significantly negatively correlated with cross-sectional differences in average economic growth rates, controlling for various other determinants of economic growth, and other standard tax variables. In fixed-effect regressions, we again find that increases in corporate tax rates lead to lower future growth rates within countries. The coefficient estimates suggest that a cut in the corporate tax rate by 10 percentage points will raise the annual growth rate by one to two percentage points.

Greener energy solutions for a sustainable future: issues and challenges for Malaysia

This paper examines the intricacy of energy policies, issues and challenges woven into the development of the energy sector in Malaysia. As highlighted in the Third Outline Perspective Plan (OPP3) and the Eighth Malaysia Plan (8MP) unveiled in April 2001, efforts will be intensified to moderate the growth of energy demand and to develop renewable energy as the fifth fuel in electricity generation. Whilst the general energy policy thrust for the next ten years remains unchanged, concerted efforts will be made to usher the energy sector development on a greener path. With a projected average economic growth rate of 7.5% per year in the 2001–2005 period, resource rich Malaysia would have to cater for the 7.8% yearly increase in final energy demand. Total primary energy supply is projected to grow at an average of 7.2% per year in the same period. Against the backdrop of a growing need for coal and piped natural gas imports and Malaysia becoming a net crude oil importer in 2008, greater challenges lie ahead for the energy sector. This implies that Peninsular Malaysia may become a net importer of fossil fuels (oil, gas and coal) sooner than expected. Higher utilization rate of natural gas as the ‘green’ fuel will be encouraged in electricity and non-electricity sectors. Furthermore, fiscal incentives in Budget 2001 to promote renewable energy and energy efficiency provide a timely boost for implementation of the new fifth fuel strategy. Although the overall approach in addressing energy issues and challenges hinges on the precautionary principle, the main thrust of energy sector development in Malaysia will continue to focus on adequacy, quality and security of energy supply and the promotion of its efficient utilization with minimum negative impacts on the environment.

Public Finances and Long-Term Growth in Europe - Evidence from a Panel Data Analysis

In Lisbon the European Council proclaimed a European strategy. It considers an average economic growth rate of around 3 percent as a realistic prospect for the coming years and assigns public finances an important role in the process of achieving this goal. This paper addresses the question whether we can find empirical evidence for European countries that public finance reform affects trend growth. Focusing on time series patterns, we investigate whether there have been persistent shifts or trends in economic and fiscal variables over the last 40 years. In addition, we estimate a distributed lag model, which 1) indicates that government consumption and transfers negatively affect rates of GDP per capita over the business cycle, while public investment has a positive impact, and 2) provides robust evidence that distortionary taxation affects in the medium-term through its impact on the accumulation of private physical capital.