Trajectories for South African employment after COVID-19

From Arthur Lewis’ seminal paper to Michael Todaro’s model, there has been an attempt to explain migration from rural to urban areas. However, no attempt has been made to determine the trajectory of employment in a dual economy in order to increase employment. In this paper, we set up a planning model to determine the optimal trajectory of employment in a dual economy. A CES production function is used to determine the trajectory of the short-run employment and minimize the distance between the two trajectories. From this result, we suggest a strategy to increase employment in South Africa.

PurposeThe main purpose of this study is to investigate the symmetric and asymmetric effects of exchange rate uncertainty on employment in South Africa’s manufacturing sector over the period 1985Q1–2019Q2.Design/methodology/approachJorda’s (2005) local projection method is employed and following Koop et al. (1996); generalized impulse response functions are generated to see the effect of exchange rate uncertainty on employment in South Africa’s manufacturing sector.FindingsThe results show that exchange rate uncertainty affects negatively and significantly employment in South Africa’s manufacturing sector. Employment also responds negatively and significantly to export shock. Inflation and output shocks, however, positively and significantly affect employment on impact. Asymmetric responses of employment to exchange rate uncertainty are also found in this study. While high exchange rate uncertainty leads to a reduction in employment, low exchange rate uncertainty brings an increase in employment in South Africa’s manufacturing sector.Originality/valueThis research adds to the scarce empirical literature on the effect of exchange rate uncertainty on employment in South Africa’s manufacturing sector by incorporating mainly non-linearities into the model.

The aim of this paper was an attempt to estimate the impact of foreign direct investment on economic growth and employment in South Africa for a period of 24 years, thus from 1990 to 2013. The study employed in its analysis, the unit root test to test for stationarity of the time series, the Johansen Cointegration test to test for the existence of long-run relationship among the variables and finally, Granger causality test to establish the causal relationship between the variables. Employment and GDP were found to be stationary at first order difference, while FDI was found to be stationary at level form. The cointegration test confirmed the existence of a long-run relationship between the variables. The Granger Causality test results confirmed the direction of causality which runs from FDI to GDP and from FDI to employment. From the results, there is strong evidence that from 1990 to 2013 there was a positive long-run relationship between FDI, GDP and employment in South Africa. Adding to these tests, various diagnostic tests also confirmed that the research results are reliable. In addition, the paper also identified factors that might affect the flow of foreign investors into South Africa. These factors include; return on investment, human capital, cost of labour, labour disputes and corruption. The government should emphasise more on these factors to make South Africa conducive for foreign investment. My empirical results thus suggest that FDI should be considered as a mechanism to boost long-term economic growth and employment in South Africa. DOI: 10.5901/mjss.2014.v5n25p18

This paper forms one component of a larger project of the Human SciencesResearch Council (HSRC) to assess the state of knowledge of the labourmarket in South Africa, and to identify research gaps. Our paper has twoprimary objectives: to outline the extent and incidence of low-wagedemployment in South Africa and to review the literature on informalemployment, one important component of low-waged employment. Webegin by provided a statistical overview of low-waged employment usingthe Labour Force Survey of March 2000 and March 2004. Based on thesedata, we summarise trends in low-waged employment. In Section B, wefocus on informal employment in South Africa, and discuss some of theconceptual and statistical literature and apply it to the South Africancontext. Section C provides trends on informal employment. Section D,using a unique panel drawn from the Labour Force Survey, providesanalysis of some of the linkages between informal employment and otherlabour market statuses, including unemployment. Finally, in Section E,based both on our analysis of low-waged employment and on the review ofthe informal economy, we offer some suggestions for a research agenda.The issues of low-waged employment and informal employment are bothimportant considerations for labour market policy in South Africa. One ofthe key debates about employment in South Africa is the relationshipbetween wages and employment, with the argument often made that the highlevels of unemployment in South Africa are a result of rapid increases inwages, particularly of unskilled black workers (see Fallon and Lucas 1998,Lewis 2002). In the last comprehensive overview study of the labour market

In the past decades, we witness more international traveling across countries. Most countries are enjoying good growth in the tourism industry prior to the pandemic. However, this is not the story we see in a developing country, South Africa. Tourism is a major source of revenue and employment in South Africa; the COVID-19 pandemic has cast a deep impact on it. As compared to the world’s tourist arrival, South Africa lagged before and during the pandemic. South Africa has the greatest number of cities in the top ten crime cities in the world according to Crime Index Rate ( Current Crime Index, Numbeo, https://www.numbeo.com/crime/rankings_current.jsp); safety is the main deterrent for tourists. Recent data shows a reduction in crime rate over time, and the perceived safety of people in the country continues to increase. However, it does not seem to help with more tourism spending in the country and the rate of tourist arrival continues to fall behind the other countries. In this chapter, we attempt to examine why this is so and propose a solution for South Africa Tourism to move forward. South Africa is one popular tourist destination in the continent of Africa, well known for a variety of tourist attractions like its wildlife game reserves and many heritage sites. Despite its many tourism offerings, South Africa, along with other countries in Africa, is perceived as having a high crime rate and being considered as an unsafe tourist destination. This chapter examines the importance of tourism in South Africa’s economy as well as what attracts and deters tourists from visiting. The impact of COVID-19 and the post-COVID-19 scenario are also discussed, and the chapter concludes with suggestions on how South Africa can make its tourism sector more attractive. Affordability Wildlife Tourism Adventures Wine Appreciation Beaches Heritage Sites Accommodations and Transport Infrastructure

The rate of unemployment (state of being unemployed) in South Africa continues to rise yearly and the youth of South Africa continue to suffer at the hands of the leading Party, the African National Congress (ANC). This article adopts the Afrocentric theory to unpack the realities of the current state of employment in South Africa. The authors argue that it is currently uneasy for youth and tertiary graduates to get employment. Some of the reasons outlined in the article include favouritism, corruption and nepotism that continue to haunt the ANC almost three decades in power. The systematic politics of employment in South Africa does not favour the ordinary citizens in dire need of jobs. This article’s central argument is that government vacancies that are regularly advertised are not often awarded to deserving individuals, but individuals aligned to the ruling ANC party. Methodologically, this paper relied heavily on document study.

This paper adopts the Toda-Yamamoto technique of causality in order to examine the direction of causality between employment and economic growth. This is to investigate whether the increase in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) translates into increased employment or not and vice versa, in South Africa, using quarterly data from 2000Q1 to 2012Q3. South Africa has been experiencing high and increased growth for the past decade, yet the rate of employment is not significantly high. Meanwhile, the objective of the government, since the first democratic election in 1994, was to increase economic growth along with a reduction in the unemployment rate (BMR, 2011). Although the economy has been experiencing significant success of increased economic growth, it performed poorly in the area of increased employment (BMR, 2011). This study thus seeks to answer the following questions: (1) does it mean that the increase in growth does not translate to the creation of more jobs and (2) is increased economic growth not as a result of increase in employment in South Africa? The results obtained shows that causality does not run from employment to economic growth in South Africa, as the null hypothesis was not rejected at all significant levels. However, Keynes General Theory holds for South Africa, where the empirical result showed that economic growth leads employment. These results support the criticism of ‘jobless growth’ against South Africa (Kumo, 2012). The paper suggests some policy recommendations for the improvement of employment.

The road freight industry is essential to Southern African economies, and South Africa, the largest economy and port of entry and exit for the majority of goods coming and going to the region, has a shortage of trained, quality truck drivers. This study investigates the extent to which employers are hiring female drivers in response to this skilled-labour shortage and brings to light the experiences of both employers and female truck drivers in South Africa's road freight industry. Although there is a dearth of literature on the experiences of women in skilled blue-collar work in South Africa, previous studies from the developed world have established certain expectations for the integration of women into traditionally male-dominated fields; the results of this study are discussed in relation to these expectations. Findings suggest that women are increasingly targeted for employment, beyond the requirements of affirmative action legislation, due to the perception that female drivers are safer, more conscientious, less likely to endanger public safety and company property, and less likely to engage in risky forms of behaviour including those associated with exposure to HIV/AIDS. This has led some employers to conclude that the female drivers they employ are not only equal but superior to their male colleagues. While female drivers note challenges in gaining entry and acceptance in the industry, they also report a near-unanimously positive experience with colleagues and supervisors. This study furthers our understanding of changing gender dynamics in South Africa as well as the secondary impacts of HIV/AIDS on southern African countries. The future of female employment in South Africa's road freight industry holds both opportunities and challenges.

It is a universally acceptable practice to employ newly hired employees on a probationary period. In general terms the purpose of probation is to give the employer an opportunity to evaluate the employee's performance before confirming the appointment. This in itself seems to be an uncomplicated process; however, the scenario, especially in South Africa, becomes more complicated if an employer wants to terminate an employee's service during the probationary period of employment or terminate the services of an employee at the end of the probationary period. The right to a fair dismissal is well recognised in South African labour law; this right also extends to employees during their probationary period of employment. Convention 158 of the International Labour Organisation (ILO) provides guidelines in respect of the termination of employment, also during the probation period. In this article the ILO's standards with regard to the termination of employment during probation are considered. South Africa was a former colony of the Netherlands and the United Kingdom, in light of this the respective positions on dismissal during the probation period of employment in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom are also analysed. This provided the researcher with an opportunity to determine if South Africa's dismissal regime during the probationary period of employment is in line with some international perspectives and it appears that dismissal during the probationary period of employment in South Africa is out of step with international standards and developments.

The impact of the current Covid-19 pandemic on the economy presents an opportunity for an economic reset in South Africa. The economic reset will provide a chance for structural transformation that will underpin economic growth and sustainable development. The Covid-19 pandemic has entrenched and exposed South Africa’s inequality. Unemployment is at an all-time high and over half of South Africans, the majority which is African live in extreme poverty. This inequality has created a conducive environment for the recent instabilities that led to mass looting and property destruction. In response to the economic crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic, the South African government adopted the South African Economic Reconstruction and Recovery Plan to reconstruct and reset the economy. However, the South African Economic Reconstruction and Recovery Plan do not present an opportunity for the economic reset but it’s a perpetuation of neoliberalism. Therefore, the call “to build a new, inclusive economy that benefits all South Africans” is nothing but buzzwords without any meaning. The plan mimics rhetorical calls for job creation and industrialization made by previous policies i.e. National Development Plan (NDP) and New Growth Path (NGP) without any operational plan and a new course of action. In addition, the plan is intended for South Africa to move towards the target set in the NDP, vision 2030. This paper analyzes the South African Economic Reconstruction and Recovery Plan as a response to the economic crisis. Moreover, the paper seeks to determine whether the plan will lead to desired results of economic reconstruction. In conclusion, the paper determines whether neoliberalism is the correct trajectory for South African development or is there a need for a developmental state.

Failure to create more jobs is a problem faced by many African countries, and South Africa is not spared. Evidence concerning the effect of oil prices on employment is lacking. The paper examines the impact of factor prices (oil prices) on sectorial employment in South Africa over the period 1994 to 2012 using quarterly data. The study employs panel data analysis techniques to split the sectorial effects. The use of panel data econometric techniques to control for unobserved heterogeneity is essential to uncover the result, which is completely hidden in OLS estimates. By adding a dummy of each sector, pure effect of oil prices are estimated through controlling for unobserved heterogeneity. The effect of oil prices is felt most in the finance sector, followed by construction, then trade - all significant at 1%. Since oil price is positively related to employment in these sectors, it implies that the monetary policy in South Africa is accommodative as given a wage rate, increase in the price of oil leads to increase in price level and thus decrease in real wage.

Analysis of drug consumption and expenditure of WHO essential medicines for cancer in 40 countries and regions between 2012 and 2022: a multinational drug use study.

Manufacturing provides a platform for innovation, job creation, investment and overall economic progression. South Africa has the potential to be a manufacturing destination of choice. However in the previous decade, this country's manufacturing sector has been declining, making an insufficient contribution to the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and employment. The study had the aim of establishing the relationship between the manufacturing sector, economic output and employment in South Africa post-1994. Secondary data was collected for 84 quarters from 1994 Q1 to 2015 Q4. The Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model together with a multivariate cointegration approach were used to analyze the data. The co-integration test results indicated that the manufacturing sector has a positive long-run relationship with GDP and employment. However, the relationship is only significant with GDP; it is non-significant with employment. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) results established that there were no short-run relationships between the variables. The absence of such relationships was confirmed by the Granger causality test. The final results of this study indicated that an increase in manufacturing results in GDP growth, while it has the potential to create an enabling environment for employment creation.

Through the use of administrative tax data, this study attempts to identify the characteristics of firms that employ relatively large numbers of young people. The policy objective of this exercise is to use these insights to inform policy and programming in the context of youth unemployment, particularly regarding where efforts to intensify youth absorption into employment should be focused to ensure maximum impact in addressing the problem of low youth employment in South Africa. Given the nature of this new data set, we adopt an explorative approach and make use of various econometric models to conduct the analysis within the limitations of the variables in different tax data sets. The novelty of this paper is that it uses unique administrative tax micro-data sets, which allows us to explore the relationship between firm characteristics and youth employment in South Africa with a significantly large sample size.

South Africa's agricultural sector, despite facing high unemployment, is acknowledged for creating job opportunities. However, there is concern that the sector's adoption of technology-intensive methods may not necessarily lead to increased employment. The study aims to analyze the intricate relationship between agricultural output and employment in South Africa using time series analysis. This research employed a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model to evaluate the link between agricultural production and the rate of agricultural employment in South Africa spanning from 1990 to 2022. The findings indicate that both variables passed levels and became stationarity at the first difference when employing ADF, and a long-term equilibrium relationship between the variables was observed using Johansen cointegration test. Over the short term, there was a significant positive correlation among agricultural production and the agricultural employment rate evidenced from ECT coefficient of 0.139 value. The results of the Granger causality tests indicated unidirectional relationship that agricultural employment Granger-causes agricultural production, signifying that agricultural employment can be used to predict the growth of agricultural production. Study recommended that policies which promote injection of funds to improve production in the agriculture sector needs to be prioritized to maintain and improve employment opportunities.