Average Rate Of Decline Research Articles

Groundwater depletion in Haryana: A challenge

India is the world’s largest user of groundwater with over 80% of the rural and urban domestic water consumption met by available groundwater, but every year the water table is depleting in different states of the country. There are total 141 blocks in Haryana, out of which 86 blocks (61% of the state’s geographical area) had reached the red zone due to groundwater exploitation. In year 2004, 55 blocks were under the red category zone, which means that 31 more blocks have come under the distressed category in a decade and a half. The depletion in the water table is now a cause of concern in 14 of the 22 districts of Haryana and mainly Ambala, Kurukshetra, Kaithal, Karnal and Panipat are the worst affected. In the absence of adequate surface water quantity, groundwater has become the main sources of irrigation in the state and the total geographical area of Haryana is 44,212 Sq. Km and out of which cultivable area 36,760 Sq. Km (83.15%). The total area under under irrigation is 2974000 ha (81%) i.e. by Canals 11,53000 ha (38.80%) and by tube wells 18,2100 ha (61.20%). Net Area Irrigated is 29,740 Sq. Km. This has resulted into excessive exploitation of groundwater resources. The indiscriminate withdrawal of groundwater has created a declining water table situation in the state. The average rate of decline over the last 48 years has been about 24 cm per year. In addition, fourteen districts out of twenty two have been categorized as over exploited. This paper, therefore, attempts to analyze the problem of declining water table, factors for its depletion and suitable mitigation measures to combat the declining water table problem for sustainable agriculture development in the state.

A novel method for carbon emission forecasting based on EKC hypothesis and nonlinear multivariate grey model: evidence from transportation sector.

Greenhouse gas emissions have brought a serious challenge to the global environment and climate. Efficient and accurate prediction of carbon emissions is essential for the decision-making sectors to control growth and formulate policies. Firstly, considering the economic, demographic, and energy factors, a novel nonlinear multivariate grey model (ENGM(1,4)) based on environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) is proposed with respect to the data characteristics of the incomplete information of carbon emission of transportation sector. The model integrates the IPAT (“Influence = Population, Affluence, Technology”) equation and the extended atochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology model (STIRPAT). Secondly, the derivation method is used to solve the time response equation of the model and the quantum particle swarm optimization algorithm (QPSO) is designed to optimize the model parameters. Then, 18 years of carbon emission data from China, the USA, and Japan are selected as the validation set. Comparative analysis indicates that the prediction accuracy of the statistical models and the intelligent models depends on sufficient samples and complex variables, and has certain limitations in limited sample prediction. The calculation results show that the new model outperforms other models in various evaluation indicators, indicating that its prediction accuracy is higher. Finally, the projections show that in 2019–2025, the average increase in carbon emissions from the transport sector in China and the USA was 2.837% and 2.394%, respectively, while Japan shows a downward trend with an average decline rate of 1.2231%. The analyzed prediction results are consistent with current situation of the three countries and the transport sectors, demonstrating the high accuracy and reliability of the new model.

Decadal Groundwater Level Changes in Pratapgarh District of Southern Rajasthan, India

The higher dependency on the groundwater has increased extremely over time due to over-utilization of the aquifers. Thus, it is urgent to assess the degree of exploitation and analyze the groundwater level trend in the area of interest. This study has been taken to examine the pre and post -monsoon groundwater level fluctuations using statistical methods for 76 observation wells in Pratapgarh district of Rajasthan for the last 11 years (2009-2019). Results revealed that the groundwater level has fallen general to significantly in maximum number of blocks during 2009-2019. It was found that the resulting groundwater levels are linearly affected by the amount of rainfall occurred. The groundwater level fluctuations data considerably interprets the groundwater recharge. The average annual decline in groundwater level was detected with strong decline (0.204 m/yr) during post-monsoon season at Chhoti Sadriblock. The average rate of rise and decline during pre and post monsoon groundwater level for the Pratapgarh district was 0.110 m/yr and 0.081m/yr, respectively. In spite of being a predominantly hard rock area, the district shows limited variation in depth to groundwater level. The alterations in water level in different seasons may be attributed to the recharge by rainfall in post-monsoon season.

Emission accounting and drivers in 2004 EU accession countries

The ten countries that joined the European Union (EU) in 2004 (Cyprus, Czechia, Estonia, Hungary, Lithuania, Latvia, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia) have experienced faster economic growth and slower declines in energy consumption than traditional EU members. As designing of low-carbon policies requires accurate CO2 emission accounting, this study describes the evolving trajectories of CO2 emissions from 2005 to 2017 of 2004 EU accession members by providing detailed emission inventories by 28 types of energy and 47 socioeconomic sectors. We further quantify the contributions of four socioeconomic drivers (i.e., economic growth, energy structure, carbon intensity, and energy intensity) to the emission changes. The results show that the total CO2 emissions of the ten countries decreased by 7.50% from 2010 (506.81 Mt) to 2016 (468.78 Mt), which is lower than the average decline rate of other EU members (10.52%). Although the effect of economic growth contributed the most to emission increase (15.44%), it is completely offset by the decline in carbon intensity (-18.82%). We also discuss potential roadmaps towards carbon neutrality by designing 33 scenarios based on the European Union Low-Carbon Development Map 2050. We find that carbon neutrality cannot be achieved unless the share of renewable energy sources reaches 60% and more than half of existing coal and gas power plants are upgraded to Carbon Capture Storage (CCS) technology. These changes require the implementation of both short-term and long-term strategies.

Studying the dynamics of labor protests: the experience of using linear approximation method

In article we propose a method for the analysis of long time series data of the Monitoring of Labor Protests. This database has been accumulating data on labor protests in Russia since 2008. During 156 months data were collected on 3,951 protests by Russian workers. The article describes the need to control labor protests, the features of the current legal regulation of labor conflicts. The peculiarity of the Russian situation is that the state bodies register only “legal” strikes, ignoring the numerous protest actions of workers undertaken in other forms. Therefore, it is necessary to study their dynamics in order to identify trends that are not visible using conventional analysis. The main difficulty in identifying trends is the high variability of the source data. The article proposes a method for smoothing data and the rate of change of the smoothed function at each point, which makes it possible to find criteria for determining periods of growth and decline in the protest indicator. This makes it possible to calculate periods, their duration, intensity, average rate of growth or decline. In addition to analyzing the overall dynamics, the proposed method allows to study subsamples, for example, of different sectors, and compare them obtaining comparable estimates. The article compares three sectors – industry, transport and healthcare – that accounted for 75% of all protest actions of workers in 2020.

Neurocognitive function and survival in children with average-risk medulloblastoma treated with hyperfractionated radiation therapy alone: Long-term mature outcomes of a prospective study.

The purpose of this study was to report long-term neurocognitive and clinical outcomes in children treated for average-risk medulloblastoma with hyperfractionated radiation therapy (HFRT) alone. Between 2006 and 2010, 20 children with rigorously staged average-risk medulloblastoma were treated on a prospective study with HFRT without upfront adjuvant systemic chemotherapy after written informed consent. HFRT was delivered as twice-daily fractions (1 Gy/fraction, 6-8 hours apart, 5 days/week) to craniospinal axis (36 Gy/36 fractions) plus conformal tumor-bed boost (32 Gy/32 fractions). Neurocognitive function was assessed at baseline and periodically on follow-up using age-appropriate intelligence quotient (IQ) scales. Median age was 8 years (range 5-14 years) with 70% being males. Mean and standard deviation (SD) scores at baseline were 90.5 (SD = 17.08), 88 (SD = 16.82) and 88 (SD = 17.24) for Verbal Quotient (VQ), Performance Quotient (PQ), and Full-Scale IQ (FSIQ) respectively. Mean scores remained stable in the short-to-medium term but declined gradually beyond 5 years with borderline statistical significance for VQ (P = .042), but nonsignificant decline in PQ (P = .259) and FSIQ (P = .108). Average rate of neurocognitive decline was <1 IQ point per year over a 10-year period. Regression analysis stratified by age, gender, and baseline FSIQ failed to demonstrate any significant impact of the tested covariates on longitudinal neurocognitive function. At a median follow-up of 145 months, 10-year Kaplan-Meier estimates of progression-free survival and overall survival were 63.2% and 74.1% respectively. HFRT alone without upfront adjuvant chemotherapy in children with average-risk medulloblastoma is associated with modest decline in neurocognitive functioning with acceptable long-term survival outcomes and may be most appropriate for resource-constrained settings.

Analysis on mortality and premature death rates of 4 major chronic diseases in Ji'nan, 2015-2020

Objective: To understand the characteristics and trend of the premature death rate of 4 major chronic diseases in Ji'nan from 2015 to 2020. Methods: The death cause surveillance data and population data during 2015-2020 in Ji'nan were collected, and abbreviated life table, Joinpoint regression analysis and other methods were used to analyze the characteristics and change trends of the premature death rates of 4 major chronic diseases. Results: The crude mortality rate and age standardized mortality rate changes for the 4 major chronic diseases from 2015 to 2020 range from 568.65/100 000 to 604.06/100 000 and 366.77/100 000 to 432.48/100 000, respectively. The annual premature death rate of 4 major chronic diseases declined by 3.33% averagely from 2015 to 2020 (95%CI: -6.25%--0.32%), which might be explained by the declines of the premature death rates of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases [average annual percentage change (AAPC)=-3.23%, 95%CI: -6.32%--0.05%] and cancer (AAPC=-3.58%,95%CI:-6.83%--0.21%). The average decline rate in women (AAPC=-4.19%,95%CI:-7.56%- -0.70%) was higher than that in men (AAPC=-2.92%,95%CI: -5.65%--0.11%). Conclusions: The premature death rate of 4 major chronic diseases showed a downward trend in Ji'nan from 2015 to 2020. Men should be considered as a key population in the prevention and control of 4 major chronic diseases, and attention should also be paid to the non-significant declines in the premature death rates of chronic respiratory diseases and diabetes.

Prognostic Significance of the Integral Index of the Alcohol Situation in Assessing Regional Differences in Mortality from Cardiovascular Diseases in the Russian Federation

Aim. To evaluate the stability of the integral index of the alcohol situation in the regions of the Russian and its prognostic significance regarding adult mortality from diseases of the circulatory system.Material and methods. The dynamics of standardized mortality rate for cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and TM in 2012 and 2018 in regions of Russia with safe and unsafe alcohol situations was analyzed. The average group mortality rate were evaluated, as well as the average rate of dynamics of the indicator reduction for the period from 2012 to 2018.Results. In 2012, differences in the rates of total mortality, as well as mortality from CSD, IHD, and CVD in regions with different levels of alcohol wellbeing were significant with a significance level of p &lt;0.05. In 2018, intergroup differences in mortality from CSD and IHD were unreliable. Differences in average mortality rates from other causes significantly differed with a significance level of p &lt;0.05. Total mortality and mortality from CVD, including individual forms, decreased in all regions, regardless of the level of alcohol well-being. The average rate of decline in mortality in the group of regions with an unfavorable situation was lower than the same indicator in regions with a favorable situation, with the exception of mortality from CVD. The most pronounced were differences between regions in the rate of decline in mortality from MI (p &lt;0.05). For the remaining causes of death, the differences were not significant.Conclusion. The hypothesis of a significant contribution of the alcohol factor to cardiovascular mortality is confirmed. In the groups of regions that differ in the integral index of the alcohol situation, significant differences were noted in the indicators of both total mortality and mortality from the main groups of cardiovascular diseases. These differences persist over time, which confirms the hypothesis that the proposed integral indicator can be used for a long-term forecast of the influence of the alcohol situation on public indicators.

Stress-sensitivity of fracture conductivity of Tuscaloosa Marine Shale cores

Production decline from wells producing from shale rocks is typically quite rapid. One possible factor responsible for such decline is loss in fracture conductivity. This is true in the case of the Tuscaloosa Marine shale reservoir. In this work, the stress-dependent fracture conductivity of TMS core samples is investigated using five propped cores under varying stress conditions. In addition, the effects of static rock mechanical properties and rock mineralogy on conductivity decline are investigated. The mineralogy of each core sample was determined by X-ray Diffraction analysis. Fracture conductivity was measured using a Hassler-type pressure core holder with a pressure rating of 15,000 psi (103.42 MPa). Estimated rock mechanical properties showed that shale anisotropy could affect fracture conductivity. The time decline in conductivity revealed two possible decline trends, a) decline from the reduction in induced fracture width, and b) decline from the healing of developed micro-cracks. An exponential decline in fracture conductivity with increasing confinement pressure was observed with an average decline rate constant of 3.15 × 10 − 10 mPa −1 . While rock mineralogy did not have any clear relationship with conductivity decline, the effects of rock mechanical properties were only important at 10.34 MPa confinement pressure and above. The observation showed that a high Young's modulus correlate to high conductivity, whereas a high Poisson's ratio correlate to low conductivity. This study provides useful observations for optimizing fracture design to enhance well productivity in the TMS. • Fracture conductivity decline followed an exponential trend. • Micro-cracks formed in the rock samples which later contributed to fluid flow. • Reduction in fracture width is controlled by proppant embedment for the TMS. • Fracture width reduction and healing of micro-cracks causes conductivity decline.

Determinants of Export Performance of Honey Industry in Ethiopia

The study was conducted to identify the determinants of export performance of honey industry in Ethiopia and to establish trends of the Ethiopian honey export volume and honey export value. Specifically, the study aimed to assess factors that determine the export performance of existing Ethiopian honey exporters, to identify the extent at which the determinants have an effect on performance of Ethiopian honey export industry, and to assess the trends of Ethiopian honey export in volume and value. In the study a descriptive and explanatory research designs were adopted and the sampling technique (non-probabilitypurposive sampling technique) was used to select sample of 96 sample size from 24 Ethiopian honey exporting firms. The data collection methods; primary and secondary methods were applied to collect the data. The analysis of the secondary data showed that the trends of the Ethiopian honey export volume and honey export value showed an average decline rate of 53% and 51.5% respectively during 2011-2020. The result of primary data indicate that domestic market price and application of agrochemicals on crops, and adulteration mixing honey with other products negatively affect honey export performance with (mean 4.30 and Std dev 0.645), and (mean = 4.43 and std dev =.597), and (mean= 4.48 and std dev= .525) negatively affect honey export performance. Honey marketing legal framework revealed mean value (mean = 4.43, std dev= .637), laboratory service (mean 4.36 and std dev = .636), storage and packaging materials with (mean = 4.33 and std dev= .633) by suppliers and producers, financial credit services (mean= 4.10 and Std dev = .640), and supply of honey (mean= 4.31 and mean= .675) positively affect honey export performance in Ethiopia. The study recommends Ethiopia to have mandatory honey standard, technical supervision and follow up must be strong to reduce adulteration of honey and enhance quality as it is the major criteria of export standard, establishment of new policies on application of agrochemical crops and pesticides, creating suitable condition to produce honey storage and packaging materials in the country, increase production volume to stabilize domestic market price and increase export performance. Keywords: Ethiopia: Export Performance: Market: Honey Export Volume: Honey Export Value

Predictive control using a hybrid data-based artificial neural network model: a case study on the construction of massive concrete structures

Traditionally, temperature control for massive concrete structures during the construction phase is based on experience instead of using advanced methods such as predictive control method. In this paper, a predictive control method with a hybrid data-based artificial neural network (ANN) model is proposed. The main parameters of the numerical model are identified based on the data measured from the site. Since the limitation of the measured data, a rich dataset is generated by the numerical model with the identified parameters. Finally, a hybrid data-based ANN model for predicting the temperature indicator of massive concrete is developed. A case study in which the temperature control of concrete in a real bridge anchorage foundation construction in Southwestern China is conducted. Results show that the maximum temperature of concrete can be controlled around the target temperature by the proposed method. The average temperature decline rate decreases from 0.19 °C/h to 0.14 °C/h in the period of 120 h (i.e., from 60 h to 180 h after the concrete pouring) at a sudden decrease of 8 °C in environmental temperature, thereby enabling a significant reduction in the risk of concrete cracking.

Rates of Cognitive Decline in 100 Patients With Alzheimer Disease.

Background: In the state of Louisiana, the prevalence of Alzheimer disease (AD) is projected to increase 26.4% by 2025 because of the rapidly increasing geriatric population. While significant research is available on risk factors for developing AD, less data are available regarding AD progression and the rate of change among patients with the disease. To date, no research has established the baseline cognitive decline of patients with AD residing in New Orleans, Louisiana.Methods: We evaluated 100 patients in the Ochsner Health system from September 2013 to December 2019 who had a diagnosis of AD and repeated Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) or Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) scores to determine annual rates of decline. Associated variables that were analyzed included race, age at diagnosis, social factors, and comorbidities.Results: The average annual rates of decline for MMSE and MoCA scores were 2.43 (SD 2.82) points and 2.39 (SD 1.88) points, respectively. Our results were significant for a faster rate of decline in MMSE scores among smokers (3.50 points, SD 3.20) vs nonsmokers (1.54 points, SD 2.07). We found no significant difference in MoCA scores for smokers vs nonsmokers, in addition to other demographic and lifestyle variables.Conclusion: The rate of decline seen in an urban population of patients with AD is lower than the average rate of decline reported in the literature, a finding that can help inform future interventional studies that use rate of decline as a primary outcome.

三江源地区季节冻土时空格局及影响因子

PDF HTML阅读 XML下载 导出引用 引用提醒 三江源地区季节冻土时空格局及影响因子 DOI: 10.5846/stxb202108172267 作者: 作者单位: 作者简介: 通讯作者: 中图分类号: 基金项目: 三江源国家公园联合专项（LHZX-2020-07）；第二次青藏高原科考项目（2019QZKK0105） Spatio-temporal pattern and influencing factors of seasonal frozen soil in the Three Rivers Source Region Author: Affiliation: Fund Project: 摘要 | 图/表 | 访问统计 | 参考文献 | 相似文献 | 引证文献 | 资源附件 | 文章评论 摘要:根据三江源地区21个气象台站的最大冻土深度、气温、降水观测数据和欧洲中心再分析资料，利用旋转经验正交分解等方法对1981-1010年三江源地区季节最大冻土深度（MFSD）的时空分布特征进行了分析，并探讨了季节冻土与气候因子之间的关系，结果表明：（1）40年来三江源地区平均MFSD为136.66cm，空间分布呈现出以玛多站最大中心值（218.85cm），向四周递减的分布特征。（2）40年平均变率空间分布和旋转正交经验分解第一模态时间系数均表现出三江源地区MFSD呈现明显下降趋势，季节冻土层明显减薄，平均MFSD递减率为0.51cm/a。（3）表征热力状况的气候因子中，湿润指数、气温和降水是影响三江源地区季节冻土较为重要的气候因子。（4）三江源地区季节冻土的关键区在东北部，MFSD典型高值年有1983年等4个年份；典型低值年有1988年等7个年份。通过对500hPa位势高度场典型高值年、低值年合成分析，季节冻土典型高（低）值年，北半球500hPa位势高度场负（正）异常；同时，南亚高压负（正）异常，其范围偏小（大），强度偏弱（强），温度场中心温度更低（高），对应三江源地区应季节冻土更厚（薄）；研究结果可为三江源地区开展冻土保育、退化湿地修复、退化草地近自然恢复等生态环境保护治理技术研发和示范提供气象支撑，为揭示土壤-大气互相影响的机制，应对气候变化，建设三江源国家公园提供理论依据。 Abstract:In this paper, the observation data of maximum frozen soil depth, air temperature and precipitation of 21 meteorological stations in the Three Rivers Source Region and the reanalysis data of European Center (EC) were used. The temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of seasonal maximum permafrost depth (MFSD) in Three Rivers Source Region were analyzed by means of rotating empirical orthogonal function (REOF), and the relationship between seasonal permafrost and climatic factors was also discussed. The results showed:(1) the spatial distribution of average MFSD in the Three Rivers Source Region in recent 40 years showed that Maduo station was the maximum, decreasing in all directions, the maximum value in the center was 218.85 cm, and the average MFSD in the whole region was 136.66 cm. (2) The spatial distribution of average variability in 40 years and the first mode time coefficient of REOF showed that MFSD in the Three Rivers Source Region presented an obvious downward trend in recent 40 years, the frozen soil layer was obviously thinner, and the average MFSD decline rate in the whole region was 0.51 cm/a. (3) Among the themal climatic factors, the humidity index, air temperature and precipitation were the more important climatic factors affecting the seasonal frozen soil in the Three Rivers Source Region. (4) The key area of seasonal frozen soil in the Three Rivers Source Region was in the northeast, including 7 meteorological stations. The typical high value years of MFSD were 1983, etc. and the typical low years were 1988, etc. Through the composite analysis of 500 hPa potential height field typical high value years and typical low value years, in the typical high (low) value years of seasonal frozen soil, 500 hPa potential height field showed the negative anomaly, the range of South Asia high was smaller (larger), the strength was weaker (stronger), the temperature at the center of the temperature field is lower (higher), and the seasonal frozen soil was thicker (thinner). The research results can provide meteorological support for the research, development and demonstration of eco-environmental protection technologies such as permafrost conservation, degraded wetland restoration, degraded grassland near-natural restoration, reveal the mechanism of soil-atmosphere interaction in the Three Rivers Source Region, deal with climate change, and provide a theoretical basis for the construction of Sanjiangyuan National Park. 参考文献 相似文献 引证文献

Determinants of Export Performance of Honey Industries in Ethiopia

The study was conducted to identify the determinants of export performance of honey industries in Ethiopia and to establish trends of the Ethiopian honey export volume and honey export value. Specifically, the study aimed to assess factors that determine the export performance of existing Ethiopian honey exporters, to identify the extent at which the determinants have an effect on performance of Ethiopian honey export industry, and to assess the trends of Ethiopian honey export in volume and value. In the study a descriptive and explanatory research designs were adopted and the sampling technique (non-probability- purposive sampling technique) was used to select sample of 96 sample size from 24 Ethiopian honey exporting firms. The data collection methods; questionnaire and descriptive data analysis methods were applied to collect the data. The analysis of the secondary data showed that the trends of the Ethiopian honey export volume and honey export value showed an average decline rate of 53% and 51.5% respectively during 2011-2020. The study recommends Ethiopia to have mandatory honey standard, technical supervision and follow up must be strong to reduce adulteration of honey and enhance quality as it is the major criteria of export standard, establishment of new policies on application of agrochemical crops and pesticides, creating suitable condition to produce honey storage and packaging materials in the country, increase production volume to stabilize domestic market price and increase export performance.

Analysis of the meteorological impact on PM2.5 pollution in Changchun based on KZ filter and WRF-CMAQ

During the “13th Five Year Plan” period, the nationwide mean concentration of PM2.5 in 2020 decreased by 28.8% compared to that in 2015. Exploring the relative impact of anthropogenic emission control and meteorological conditions to the reduction in PM2.5 concentration is a key step in further ensuring the accuracy of plans for the control of atmospheric environmental problems. In this study, the KZ filter and WRF-CMAQ model were used to quantitatively evaluate the relative impact of anthropogenic emission control and meteorological conditions to the decline in PM2.5 concentration. The KZ filter results show that the changes in PM2.5 concentration in Changchun were mainly caused by the short-term (45.95%–54.74%) and seasonal (31.62%–42.65%) fluctuations of pollution precursor emissions and meteorological conditions, and the average decline rate for the PM2.5 concentration after meteorological adjustment (3.36) is lower than that of the original data (3.74). Based on the KZ filter results, the relative impact proportions of meteorological conditions and anthropogenic emission control to the decline in PM2.5 concentration in Changchun are 11.36% and 88.64%, respectively, while the numerical simulation results of the WRF-CMAQ model show values of 14.79% and 85.21%, respectively. The results of both methods indicate that, although both meteorological conditions and anthropogenic emission control are conducive to the improvement of the atmospheric environment, anthropogenic emission control played a major role in the decline in PM2.5 in Changchun from 2015 to 2020, and the impact of meteorological conditions is relatively limited.

Updated Reference Standards for Cardiorespiratory Fitness Measured with Cardiopulmonary Exercise Testing: Data from the Fitness Registry and the Importance of Exercise National Database (FRIEND)

ObjectiveTo provide updated reference standards for cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) for the United States derived from cardiopulmonary exercise (CPX) testing when using a treadmill or cycle ergometer. Patients and MethodsThirty-four laboratories in the United States contributed data to the Fitness Registry and the Importance of Exercise National Database. Analysis included 22,379 tests (16,278 treadmill and 6101 cycle ergometer) conducted between January 1, 1968, through March 31, 2021, from apparently healthy adults (aged 20 to 89 years). Percentiles of peak oxygen consumption for men and women were determined for each decade from 20 through 89 years of age for treadmill and cycle exercise modes, as well as when defining maximal effort as respiratory exchange ratio (RER) greater than or equal to 1.0 or RER greater than or equal to 1.1. ResultsFor both men and women, the 50th percentile scores for each exercise mode decreased with age and were higher in men across all age groups and higher for treadmill compared with cycle CPX. The average rate of decline per decade over a 6-decade period was 13.5%, 4.0 mLO2·kg-1·min-1 for treadmill CPX and 16.4%, 4.3 mLO2·kg-1·min-1 for cycle CPX. Observationally, the mean peak oxygen consumption was similar whether using an RER criterion of greater than or equal to 1.0 or greater than or equal to 1.1 across the different test modes, ages, and for both sexes. The updated reference standards for treadmill CPX were 1.5 – 4.6 mLO2·kg-1·min-1 lower compared with the previous 2015 standards whereas the updated cycling standards were generally comparable to the original 2017 standards. ConclusionThese updated cardiorespiratory fitness reference standards improve the representativeness of the US population compared with the original standards.

Data-driven wind turbine aging models

The worsening with age of wind turbine performance is an expected phenomenon, which is practically impossible to estimate a priori. The objective of this study is formulating a method for the estimation of wind turbine performance decline with age, basing on long term SCADA data analysis. Two test cases, featuring in total fifteen 2 MW wind turbines, have been selected because at present there are no similar studies devoted to wind turbines of this size. The study is focused on the operation regime characterized by variable rotor speed and practically fixed pitch and it is based on the analysis of the rotor speed - power and generator speed - power curves through the binning method and through a Support Vector Regression with Gaussian Kernel. The main result is that the average rate of performance decline with age for the considered test cases is in the order of −0.2% per year, which is compatible with the most recent analysis in the literature based on cumulative data. Furthermore, it is estimated that the gearbox aging does not contribute to the performance decline, while instead the generator aging does.

Developing a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)-Based Model for Reconstructing Terrestrial Water Storage Variations from 1982 to 2016 in the Tarim River Basin, Northwest China

Estimating Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) not only helps to provide a comprehensive insight into water resource variability and the hydrological cycle but also for better water resource management. In the current research, Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) data are combined with the available hydrological data to reconstruct a longer record of Terrestrial Water Storage Anomalies (TWSA) prior to 2003 of the Tarim River Basin (TRB), based on a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model. We found that the TWSA generated by LSTM using soil moisture, evapotranspiration, precipitation, and temperature best matches the GRACE-derived TWSA, with a high correlation coefficient (r) of 0.922 and a Normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE) of 0.107 during the period 2003–2012. These results show that the LSTM model is an available and feasible method to generate TWSA. Further, the TWSA reveals a significant fluctuating downward trend (p &lt; 0.001), with an average decline rate of 0.03 mm/month during the period 1982–2016 in the TRB. Moreover, the TWSA amount in the north of the TRB was less than that in the south of the basin. Overall, our findings unveiled that the LSTM model and GRACE data can be combined effectively to analyze the long-term TWSA in large-scale basins with limited hydrological data.

Country-based rate of emissions reductions should increase by 80% beyond nationally determined contributions to meet the 2\u2009\xb0C target

The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to keep global warming by 2100 to below 2 °C, with 1.5 °C as a target. To that end, countries agreed to reduce their emissions by nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Using a fully statistically based probabilistic framework, we find that the probabilities of meeting their nationally determined contributions for the largest emitters are low, e.g. 2% for the USA and 16% for China. On current trends, the probability of staying below 2 °C of warming is only 5%, but if all countries meet their nationally determined contributions and continue to reduce emissions at the same rate after 2030, it rises to 26%. If the USA alone does not meet its nationally determined contribution, it declines to 18%. To have an even chance of staying below 2 °C, the average rate of decline in emissions would need to increase from the 1% per year needed to meet the nationally determined contributions, to 1.8% per year.

Design flood revision for the upper Huaihe River Basin based on SWAT model

变化环境下洪水序列的一致性遭到破坏，引发基于统计原理计算的设计洪水可靠性下降，亟需开展非一致性条件下的设计洪水修订研究.以淮河上游流域为研究区域，运用Pettitt检验法和滑动t检验法综合检测年最大洪峰流量序列突变点，在此基础上，采用SWAT分布式水文模型对变异前的洪峰与洪量序列进行还现，利用径流深的模拟结果修订设计洪水，并对修订后的洪水序列进行频率分析.结果表明：（1）淮河上游息县和淮滨站年最大洪峰流量呈现不显著的减小趋势，王家坝站则表现出不显著增加趋势，1991年为各站年最大洪峰流量序列的突变点；（2）3个水文站率定期和验证期的确定性系数（R²）和Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数（NSE）均满足适用性要求，其中流域出口王家坝站率定期R²、NSE分别为0.77和0.79、验证期分别为0.72和0.74，模拟精度较高；（3）淮河上游流域洪水设计值较修订前略有减小，其中，洪峰流量减小幅度平均值在3.3%~6.1%之间，淮滨站的减小幅度最大；不同时段洪量的减小幅度平均值在1.4%~2.7%之间，整体修订幅度小于洪峰流量的修订幅度，并且洪量的时段越长，修订幅度越小；随着重现期的增大，各洪水指标的修订幅度逐渐减小.本研究对于变化环境下的淮河流域水利工程规划和防洪减灾具有重要意义.;The consistency of flood series under changing environment is destroyed, which causes the decrease of reliability of design flood calculated based on statistical principle. Therefore, it is urgent to study the design flood revision under inconsistency conditions. Taking the upper Huaihe River Basin as the study area, Pettitt test and moving t-test were used to detect the abrupt change point of the annual maximum peak discharge series. The SWAT distributed hydrological model was applied to restore the series of peak discharge and flood volume before the breakpoint. Based on the simulation results of runoff depth, the design flood was revised, and the revised flood series frequency was analyzed. The results showed that:(1) The insignificant downward trend in annual maximum peak discharge was observed at Xixian and Huaibin Stations in the upper Huaihe River, while an insignificant upward trend was found at Wangjiaba Station. For annual maximum peak discharge, change point at three stations was detected in 1991. (2) The certainty coefficient (R²) and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) from the three hydrological stations met the applicability requirements. The R² and NSE of the Wangjiaba Station during the calibration period were 0.77 and 0.79, respectively, and the R² and NSE during the validation period were 0.72 and 0.74, respectively, indicating that the simulation accuracy was high. (3) The design flood value from the upper Huaihe River Basin decreased slightly compared with that before the revision. The average decline rate of annual maximum peak discharge was from 3.3% to 6.1%, and the largest decrease rate was found at Huaibin Station. The average decline range of flood volume during different periods was between 1.4% and 2.7%, and the overall revision range was smaller than that of peak discharge. Moreover, the longer the duration of flood volume, the smaller the revision range. With the increase of the recurrence period, the revision range of each flood index decreased gradually. This study is of great significance to the planning of water conservancy projects and flood control and disaster reduction in the Huaihe River Basin under changing environment.