Average Rate Of Decline Research Articles

Weakened Sea‐Land Breeze in a Coastal Megacity Driven by Urbanization and Ocean Warming

AbstractThe sea‐land breeze (SLB) occurs regularly in coastal areas and influences the local climate and atmospheric environment. Fifteen‐year observations (2005–2019) from urban, coastal, and marine stations were collected to examine the trend in the number of SLB days (SLBD) in Tianjin, a coastal megacity in China. The number of SLBD in Tianjin generally showed a decreasing trend with an annual average decline rate of 3.89%. The average land breeze speed decreased by 0.20 m·s−1 and sea breeze speed decreased by 0.69 m·s−1 in the examined 15 years. Simultaneously, the distance of influence of SLB in summer was reduced by ∼30 km. The Weather Research and Forecasting model developed with high‐resolution land use data and variations in the sea surface temperature (SST) was applied to investigate the mechanisms leading to the weakening of SLB. The increasing SST led to a reduction in the temperature difference between sea and land, which was found to be the dominant factor driving the weakening of SLB in summer. The changes in the density and height of buildings due to urbanization altered the wind direction in the coastal areas, which in turn drive the reduction of the sea breeze during fall, while increased surface temperature at night in urban areas led to the reduction of the land breeze. With projections indicating ocean warming and increasing urbanization, the SLB will become weaker and occur less frequently in the future, probably leading to more frequent air pollution due to poor ventilation in coastal cities.

Study on the Monthly Scale Evaporation Conversion Coefficient of Φ20 and E-601 Evaporation Dishes in Dingbian County Meteorological Station

To explore the relationship between Φ20 and E-601 Evaporation Dishes, the temporal and spatial variation of monthly evaporation conversion coefficient and water surface evaporation of was studied by collecting the data of typeΦ20 and E-601. The conversion coefficient K of two kinds of evaporating dishes in Dingbian County is explored by using the linear fitting method with the simultaneous observation data of Φ20 and E-601 evaporating dishes, and the annual and interannual variation laws of water surface evaporation in Dingbian County are analyzed. The monitoring data ofΦ20 and E-601 evaporating pan has a good correlation in Dingbian County, with a conversion coefficient of 0.6421, and the conversion coefficient of the water surface evaporation of the two evaporating pans increases month by month from May to September; The water surface evaporation monitored by the Dingbian Meteorological Station has the same change rule in the year, showing periodic changes. There is a difference between the change rule of water surface evaporation and air temperature in the year, and the maximum value of water surface evaporation in the year has a difference of one month compared with the air temperature; The interannual evaporation of water surface fluctuates and has a significant downward trend, with an average decline rate of 197.6 mm/10a, showing a general trend of gradually increasing from southwest to northwest in spatial distribution. The conversion coefficient in Dingbian County shows significant monthly differences, with a small value in spring and a large value in autumn; Under the background of climate warming, the evaporation of water surface in Dingbian County is declining, which indicates that human activities such as ecological engineering have improved the ecological environment of Dingbian County.

Longitudinal body weight dynamics in relation to cognitive decline over 18 years: A prospective cohort study

AbstractBackgroundWeight loss and body weight variability have been related to cognitive decline in old adults, respectively. However, the long‐term and independent associations of the two measures of body weight dynamics with cognitive decline remain unclear.MethodIn the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), we included 10,258 participants (58.4% women; mean age ± standard deviation (SD), 68.0 ± 9.8 years) free from memory‐related diseases in 1998. Body weight was reported biennially from 1993/1994 to 2016. Linear regression of the longitudinal body mass index for each individual was used to estimate body weight change (BWC, slope, kg/m2·year) and body weight variability (BWV, root mean squared error, kg/m2). Both measures were categorized by tertiles, with participants being classified as stable weight, weight loss, and weight gain (median = 0.0, ‐0.3, and 0.2 kg/m2·year, respectively), and small, moderate, and large BWV (median = 0.5, 1.1, and 2.0 kg/m2, respectively). Cognitive function was measured biennially from 1998 to 2016 using the Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status (TICS). We investigated the associations of BWC and BWV with annual rate of cognitive decline using linear mixed models.ResultDuring a median (IQR) follow‐up of 12 (4‐18) years, the average rate of cognitive decline was ‐0.052 z‐score/year. When adjusted for basic demographics, average BMI, and major lifestyle factors, we observed no significant associations of weight gain and moderate BWV with cognitive decline, whereas both weight loss and large BWV were associated with faster cognitive decline in the same model. Compared to those with stable weight, participants with weight loss experienced faster cognitive decline by ‐0.012 (95%CI, ‐0.015, ‐0.009) z‐score/year. Large BWV was also related to faster cognitive decline (β = ‐0.003, 95% CI: ‐0.006, ‐0.001) compared with small BWV. The associations were similar for both episodic memory and working memory, and across prespecified study subgroups.ConclusionWeight loss and large body weight variability were associated with faster cognitive decline in old adults. Our findings suggest the importance of dynamic body weight monitoring and management as a potential strategy to prevent age‐related cognitive decline.

Epidemiology of Lung Cancer in Kazakhstan: Trends and Geographic Distribution.

The aim is to study the trends of lung cancer (LC) incidence in the regional context in Kazakhstan. The retrospective study was done using descriptive and analytical methods of oncoepidemiology. The extensive, crude and age-specific incidence rates are determined according to the generally accepted methodology used in sanitary statistics. The data were used to calculate the average percentage change (APС) using the Joinpoint regression analysis to determine the trend over the study period. Over the 10 years under study, 36,916 new cases of LC were registered in the country (80.5% - in men and 19.5% - in women). During the studied years the average age of patients was 64.2±0.1 years (95%CI=63.9-64.4). The highest incidence rates per 100,000 in the entire population were found in the age groups 65-69 years (147.6±2.7), 70-74 years (159.3±2.5), and 75-79 years (147.1±3.2). The incidence of LC tended to increase only at the age of 80-84 years (APC=+1.26) and the most pronounced average annual decline rates were observed in the age groups of 45-49 years (APC=-4.09), 50-54 years (APC=-4.20) and 85+ years (APC=-4.07). The average annual standardized incidence rate was 22.2 per 100,000, and in dynamics tended to decrease (APC=-2.04). There is a decrease in incidence in almost all regions, with the exception of the Mangystau region (APC=+1.65). During the compilation of cartograms, incidence rates were determined on the basis of standardized indicators: low - up to 20.6, average - from 20.6 to 25.6, high - above 25.6 per 100,000 for the entire population. The incidence of lung cancer in Kazakhstan is decreasing. The incidence among the male population is six times higher than among the female, while the rate of decline is more pronounced. The incidence tends to decrease in almost all regions. High rates were found in the northern and eastern regions.

Geographical evolutionary pathway of global tuberculosis incidence trends

BackgroundsTuberculosis (TB) remains a serious public health and human development problem, especially in developing countries. Despite the effectiveness of directly observed therapy, short course programs in reducing transmission and progression of TB, poverty reduction and socioeconomic development remain crucial factors in decreasing TB incidence. However, the geographical pathway on the planet is not yet clear.ObjectivesThis study was to reconstruct the geographical evolutionary process of TB in 173 countries and territories from 2010 to 2019 to analyze the socioeconomic determinants that impact the global TB epidemic. In addition, the TB incidence in 2030 was predicted.MethodsThis study analyses TB incidence data from 173 countries and territories between 2010 and 2019. The Geotree model would be used to reconstruct the geographical evolutionary process of TB, which provides a simplified schema for geo-visualizing the trajectories of TB incidence and their socioeconomic drivers. Additionally, to estimate the future TB incidence in 2030, a multilevel model was utilized in conjunction with the hierarchical nature of the Geotree based on a stratified heterogeneity analysis.ResultsGlobal TB incidence was found to be associated with the country type and development stages. Between 2010 and 2019, the average TB incidence rate in 173 countries and territories was -27.48%, with marked spatially stratified heterogeneity by country type and development stage. Low-income and lower-middle-income countries were most vulnerable to TB. Upper-middle-income countries experienced a faster decline in TB incidence than high-income countries, and TB incidence generally decreased as the development stage increased, except for the lower-middle development stage in 2019.The highest average rate of decline in TB incidence was observed in the upper-middle development stage of high-income countries, with a reduction of 45.24%. Meanwhile, 37 high-income countries in the high development stage demonstrated an average rate of change of -13.93%. Socioeconomic determinants, including gross domestic product per capita, urbanization rate, and sociodemographic index, were found to inhibit TB incidence. Based on current trends, the predicted average global TB incidence in 2030 is 91.581 per 100,000 population.ConclusionsThe trajectories of the global TB incidence have been reconstructed to formulate targeted public health responses. To eliminate TB, countries at similar development stage can draw on the experiences of countries at higher development stages that are tailored to their unique characteristics. By learning from successful TB control strategies, countries can take strategic steps toward eradicating TB and improving public health outcomes.

Identifying the main factors driving groundwater stress in a semi-arid region, southern Iran

ABSTRACT Groundwater resources are the most reliable freshwater supply in arid regions where many aquifers face dramatic depletion due to natural and anthropogenic causes. The annual average rate of decline of groundwater level is about 1.65 m. This research focuses on an aquifer that suffers from severe groundwater stress, and it aims to identify the main causes of the stress and to understand the effects of climate change and human activity. Monthly data on groundwater level, precipitation, temperature, river discharge, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and vegetation cover were collected from 2000 to 2020. The results indicate that declining groundwater levels mainly resulted from the expansion of vegetation cover rather than changes in hydro-climatic variables. Finally, this work highlights how significant financial investment in improving irrigation efficiency in the absence of socio-economic plans, education, awareness, and monitoring programmes unproductively resulted in the expansion of agricultural activities rather than preserving groundwater storage.

Assessment of Transient and Spatial Noise Pollution Levels at Selected Junctions in Port Harcourt Metropolis, Rivers State

This study focused on assessing of transient and spatial noise levels at selected Port Harcourt Metropolis junctions. Spatial noise measurement and vehicle count were conducted at Eleme and Akpajo junctions. Comparative analyses of noise level and noise pollution level using line graph/t-test and determination of decline rate of noise pollution level using regression analysis were carried out. Comparative analyses of noise levels at the two study locations using traffic count were also done. The noise pollution level was compared with National Environmental Standards and Regulations Enforcement Agency (NESREA) and World Health Organization (WHO) noise standards and a safe zone determined at study locations. Maximum and minimum noise recorded were 88.99dB(A) and 50.05dB(A) at Eleme junction, 87.51dB(A) and 49.02dB(A) at Akpajo junction. Findings showed that the noise pollution level was relatively higher than noise level with distance away from the junctions; however, there was no significant difference between noise level and noise pollution level. Maximum noise pollution level average decline rate of -0.3691dB was observed at Eleme junction in the morning, while the minimum noise pollution level average decline rate of -0.2656dB was observed at Akpajo junction, in the morning hours. External sources also contributed to noise level at the junctions. Those living or doing business within 100m and 120m of Akpajo and Eleme junctions, respectively are at risk of having noise-induced auditory, physiological and behavioral problems. There is need for continuous monitoring of noise level at study locations. Regular health assessment of people living within the study locations. Noise control regulations should be made and enforced by the Government.

Trends in cigarette consumption across the United States, with projections to 2035.

To make projections of cigarette consumption that incorporate state-specific trends in smoking behaviors, assess the potential for states to reach an ideal target, and identify State-specific targets for cigarette consumption. We used 70 years (1950-2020) of annual state-specific estimates of per capita cigarette consumption (expressed as packs per capita or "ppc") from the Tax Burden on Tobacco reports (N = 3550). We summarized trends within each state by linear regression models and the variation in rates across states by the Gini coefficient. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were used to make state-specific forecasts of ppc from 2021 through 2035. Since 1980, the average rate of decline in US per capita cigarette consumption was 3.3% per year, but rates of decline varied considerably across US states (SD = 1.1% per year). The Gini coefficient showed growing inequity in cigarette consumption across US states. After reaching its lowest level in 1984 (Gini = 0.09), the Gini coefficient began increasing by 2.8% (95% CI: 2.5%, 3.1%) per year from 1985 to 2020 and is projected to continue to increase by 48.1% (95% PI = 35.3%, 64.2%) from 2020 to 2035 (Gini = 0.35; 95% PI: 0.32, 0.39). Forecasts from ARIMA models suggested that only 12 states have a realistic chance (≥50%) of reaching very low levels of per capita cigarette consumption (≤13 ppc) by 2035, but that all US states have opportunity to make some progress. While ideal targets may be out of reach for most US states within the next decade, every US state has the potential to lower its per capita cigarette consumption, and our identification of more realistic targets may provide a helpful incentive.

Experimental study on the evolutionary characteristics of acoustic signals produced by granite damage under uniaxial compression

Acoustic signals emitted during rock fracture constitute an important tool for rock damage evaluation. To investigate the evolutionary characteristics of acoustic emission (AE), microseismic (MS), and sound signals produced by hard rock fracture, uniaxial compression tests on granite specimens observed by AE, MS and sound monitoring were carried out. The evolution characteristics of the acoustic signal index, including its waveform, fractal dimension, b value, main frequency, energy proportion of signal frequency bands, and signal activeness, were analysed. The results indicate that there are significant differences in some characteristics of the AE, MS, and sound on the eve of granite failures, such as the waveform amplitude density, the average decline rate of the b value, the distribution of the main frequency, and the evolution of the energy proportion of the advantage frequency band. The three types of acoustic signals can characterize different scales of rock fracture under uniaxial compression. AE is sensitive to small-scale rock fractures, and MS and sound are sensitive to large-scale rock fractures. In addition, a unified damage evolution equation established by acoustic signals is proposed to quantitatively describe the damage process of granite specimens during uniaxial compression tests.

Black carbon pollution in China from 2001 to 2019: Patterns, trends, and drivers

Based on a near real–time 10 km × 10 km resolution black carbon (BC) concentration dataset, this study investigated the spatial patterns, trend variations, and drivers of BC concentrations in China from 2001 to 2019 with spatial analysis, trend analysis, hotspot clustering, and multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR). The results indicate that Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei, the Chengdu–Chongqing agglomeration, Pearl River Delta, and East China Plain were the hotspot centers of BC concentration in China. From 2001 to 2019, the average rate of decline in BC concentrations across China was 0.36 μg/m3/year (p < 0.001), with BC concentrations peaking around 2006 and sustaining a decline for the next decade or so. The rate of BC decline was higher in Central, North, and East China than in other regions. The MGWR model revealed the spatial heterogeneity of the influences of different drivers. A number of enterprises had significant effects on BC in East, North, and Southwest China; coal production had strong effects on BC in Southwest and East China; electricity consumption had better effects on BC in Northeast, Northwest, and East China than in other regions; the ratio of secondary industries had the greatest effects on BC in North and Southwest China; and CO2 emissions had the strongest effects on BC in East and North China. Meanwhile, the reduction of BC emissions from the industrial sector was the dominant factor in the decrease of BC concentration in China. These findings provide references and policy prescriptions for how cities in different regions can reduce BC emissions.

A Longitudinal Assessment of the Natural Change in Haemoglobin, Haematocrit, and Mean Corpuscular Volume with Age

Introduction: We aimed to assess the natural annual trends in the levels of haemoglobin, haematocrit, and mean corpuscular volume (MCV) in a population of adults, together with the influence of different clinical parameters on these trends. Methods: A retrospective analysis was carried out on data from a large cohort of subjects attending a screening centre in Israel. For each subject, the yearly average change of haemoglobin, haematocrit, and MCV was calculated. Statistical analysis was performed for the whole cohort and for different subgroups. Results: The study included 3,551 subjects. The average annual rates of decline were found to be −0.0550 g/dL (95% confidence interval [CI] −0.0590 g/dL to −0.0503 g/dL) and −0.097% (95% CI −0.112% to −0.083%) for haemoglobin and haematocrit, respectively. An average annual increase in the MCV level by 0.184 fL (95% CI 0.168 fL–0.200 fL) was found. Among men, the rate of decline in haemoglobin was found to be twice as high compared with women −0.06 g/dL versus −0.03 g/dL, respectively (p = 0.0063). In a multivariate analysis, gender remained the only parameter significantly associated with the annual decline of haemoglobin (p = 0.0001). Conclusion: An annual average decrease in the levels of haemoglobin and haematocrit together with an annual increase in MCV was found. These changes were more prominent in men.

A geospatial approach for understanding the spatio-temporal variability and projection of future trend in groundwater availability in the Tawi basin, Jammu, India

The overexploitation of groundwater in the foothills of the Himalayas at Jammu has led in a steady decline of groundwater levels in the recent years. The causes of the groundwater scarcity, however, is unknown due to a lack of long-term trend analysis of groundwater monitoring and scientific investigations. Therefore, the objective of this research is to investigate the groundwater variability in the alluvial aquifers of Tawi River basin of the Jammu district by applying a non-parametric approach using Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope approach. In addition, a stochastic seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was also used for forecasting time series groundwater level. The results revealed that during the pre-monsoon (PRM) season, 66.6% of the monitoring wells suffered groundwater decreases, compared to 53% during the post-monsoon (POM) season across the whole study area. The steepest slope was found in the Kandi belt with maximum water table declined to 26 m below ground level (bgl) in 2018 compared to 8.44 m bgl in 2009 with an average rate of decline of 1.109 m/yr in PRM season. Siwalik region reported a decline of groundwater level at the rate of 0.173 m/yr and 0.27 m/yr in PRM and POM respectively. However, water table in Sirowal region improved marginally in PRM and POM season with a mean raise of 0.05 m/yr and 0.08 m/yr respectively. According to the time series forecasting by stochastic simulation, if the current situation continues, the groundwater level in the Kandi region would decline by 9.46 m and 9.38 m respectively, over the observed values in 2018 to reach a level of 27.82 and 24.38 m bgl in PRM and POM respectively by 2025. The spatio-temporal analysis showed that the groundwater extraction in the aquifers of Kandi region was higher than that of the Siwalik and Sirowal region. The spatiotemporal trend and projection of groundwater levels is quite helpful in identifying the most vulnerable places, as well as addressing the current and future condition of groundwater levels for optimal resource planning and management of groundwater resources in the sustainable ways.

СТРАТЕГІЧНІ ТА ТАКТИЧНІ ОРІЄНТИРИ РЕФОРМУВАННЯ ДЕРЖАВНОЇ ЕНЕРГЕТИЧНОЇ ПОЛІТИКИ УКРАЇНИ

The article is devoted to the study of trends in the development of the energy market of Ukraine, the analysis of key energy consumption targets and their compliance with current indicators of the functioning of the energy market in Ukraine and EU countries. The systematization of literary sources on the issues of reforming the energy market of Ukraine proved the absence of comprehensive studies on the compliance of its current energy policy with the goals and objectives declared by the European community and domestic legislation. The purpose of the article is to analyze the current trends in the development of the world energy market, to determine the place of Ukraine in these processes, to identify the most effective and efficient mechanisms for the transformation of the country's energy market, from the point of view of the possibility of their implementation in Ukraine in the conditions of war and post-war economic recovery. Based on the results of the analysis of the dynamics of the gap between the actual volumes of energy consumption in the EU countries and the targeted values of 2020 and 2030, it was concluded that the actual indicators do not correspond to the planned ones in most EU countries. Achieving the target value in 2030 requires a reduction of primary energy consumption by at least 16%, and final energy consumption by 14.4%, which is much higher than the average rate of decline of these indicators for the period 2000-2021. Based on a comparative analysis of trends in energy consumption in In Ukraine and the EU countries, it was concluded that the volume of primary energy consumption significantly exceeded the average European value. It has been proved that the significant decrease in the volumes of primary energy consumption in Ukraine in 2009 and 2015 is to a greater extent connected with the economic and political crises in the country, and not with the implementation of effective state measures aimed at reforming the energy market. Based on the results of the study, a conclusion about the need to reform the energy policy in Ukraine and EU countries by intensifying the processes of transition to renewable and relatively safe energy sources, reducing the amount of energy consumption in general, transition from electricity production from fossil fuels and nuclear energy to wind and solar photovoltaic energy was made.

Hydrometeorological Forecast of a Typical Watershed in an Arid Area Using Ensemble Kalman Filter

The stationarity test and systematic prediction of hydrometeorological parameters are becoming increasingly important in water resources management. Based on the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) and wavelet analysis, this study selects precipitation, evaporation, temperature, and runoff as model variables, builds a model, tests and analyzes the stationarity of the hydrometeorological parameters of the Manas River, and forecasts the selected parameters for two years. The results of the study show that during the 2000–2020 study period, precipitation in the Manas River Basin on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains shows a significant downward trend from 2016 to 2020, with an annual average decline rate of 23.30 mm/a over five years. The proportion of runoff during the flood season also increases, with the statistical probability of an extremely low value of runoff increasing by 37.62% on average. After using wavelet decomposition to provide input to EnKF, the NSE of the model for the prediction of precipitation, evaporation, temperature, and runoff reached 0.86, 0.89, 0.96, and 0.9 respectively. At the same time, the K-S value increases from 0.28 to 0.40, which means that the wavelet analysis technique has great potential as a preprocessing of the Ensemble Kalman filter.

Resistance selection of triflumezopyrim in Laodelphax striatellus (fallén): Resistance risk, cross-resistance and metabolic mechanism.

The risk assessment and resistance mechanisms of insecticide resistance are critical for resistance management strategy before a new insecticide is widely used. Triflumezopyrim (TFM) is the first commercialized mesoionic insecticide, which can inhibit nicotinic acetylcholine receptor with high-performance against the small brown planthopper (SBPH), Laodelphax striatellus (Fallén). In our study, the resistance of SBPH to TFM increased 26.29-fold, and the actual heritability of resistance was 0.09 after 21 generations of continuous selection by TFM. After five generations of constant feeding under insecticide-free conditions from F16 generation, the resistance level decreased 2.05-fold, and the average resistance decline rate per generation was 0.01, but there were no statistical decline. The TFM resistant strains had no cross-resistance to imidacloprid, nitenpyram, thiamethoxam, dinotefuran, flonicamid, pymetrozine, and chlorfenapyr. The third and fifth nymphal stage duration, pre-adult stage, adult preoviposition period, longevity, emergence rate, and hatchability of the resistant strain were significantly lower than those of the susceptible strain, while the female-male ratio was considerably increased. The fitness cost was 0.89. Further, cytochrome P450 monooxygenase (P450) and carboxylesterase (CarE) activities were markedly increased, but only the enzyme inhibitor piperonyl butoxide (PBO) had a significant synergistic effect on the resistant strain. The expression of CYP303A1, CYP4CE2, and CYP419A1v2 of P450 genes was significantly increased. SBPH has a certain risk of resistance to TFM with continuous application. The TFM resistance may be due to the increased activity of P450 enzyme regulated by the overexpression of P450 genes.

Newborns with Low Body Weight: Specific Weight, Structure and Dynamics of Incidence

Введение. Сохранение здоровья каждого ребенка – основа деятельности службы охраны материнства и детства. Неонатальная заболеваемость является одним из индикаторов состояния здоровья детей.Цель. Установить удельный вес детей с низкой массой тела (МТ) при рождении, оценить динамику и структуру заболеваемости новорожденных, родившихся с массой тела менее 2500 грамм.Материалы и методы. Проведен ретроспективный анализ заболеваемости новорожденных в городе Минске за период 2004–2019 гг. на основании данных государственной статистической отчетности.Результаты. Выявлено, что среднее значение доли новорожденных с низкой массой тела при рождении составило 5,2±0,13%. За анализируемый период уровень заболеваемости новорожденных детей с массой тела при рождении менее 2500 грамм снизился (с 1873,5‰ в 2004 г. до 1336,8‰ в 2019 г., средний многолетний темп убыли –2,23%). При анализе структуры заболеваемости новорожденных ведущее место занимали отдельные состояния, возникающие в перинатальном периоде (97,9±0,09%). В анализируемом временном интервале 2004–2019 гг. заболеваниями с наибольшей степенью ассоциации с низкой МТ были синдром респираторного расстройства и другие респираторные состояния (35,0% детей с низкой МТ и 4,8% детей со средней МТ, ОШ=10,77 (10,37–11,18), p&lt;0,001), замедление роста и недостаточность питания (21,3% и 6,9%, ОШ=3,64 (3,51–3,77), p&lt;0,001), внутриматочная гипоксия и асфиксия в родах (23,4% и 15,0%, ОШ=1,74 (1,69–1,79), р&lt;0,001).Заключение. Анализ динамики и структуры неонатальной заболеваемости позволил оценить состояние здоровья новорожденных детей с учетом весовой категории при рождении и определить приоритетные виды патологии у младенцев с низкой массой тела и направления совершенствования оказания медицинской помощи. Introduction. Preservation of each child health is the basis activity of the service for the protection of motherhood and childhood. Neonatal morbidity is one of the children health status indicators.The purpose. To establish the proportion of children with low birth weight (BW), to assess the dynamics and structure of the incidence of newborns born with a body weight of less than 2500 g.Materials and methods. A retrospective analysis of the newborns’ morbidity incidence in Minsk for the period 2004–2019 was carried out.Results. It was revealed that the average incidence of newborns with low birth weight was 5.2±0.13%. During the analyzed period, the morbidity level of newborns with birth weight less than 2500 g decreased (from 1873.5‰ in 2004 to 1336.8‰ in 2019, the average long-term decline rate was –2.23%). When analyzing the structure of newborns’ morbidity, the leading place was occupied by individual conditions that occur in the perinatal period (97.9±0.09%). In the analyzed time interval 2004–2019 conditions with the highest degree of association with low BW were respiratory distress syndrome and other respiratory conditions (35.0% of children with low BW and 4.8% of children with moderate BW, OR=10.77 (10.37–11.18), p&lt;0.001), growth retardation and malnutrition (21.3% and 6.9%, OR=3.64 (3.51–3.77), p&lt;0.001), intrauterine hypoxia and birth asphyxia (23.4% and 15.0%, OR=1.74 (1.69–1.79), p&lt;0.001).Conclusion. An analysis of the dynamics and structure of neonatal morbidity made it possible to assess the state of newborns’ health of newborns, taking into account the birth weight, and to determine the priority types of infants’ pathology with low body weight and directions for improving the provision of medical care.

Temporal and Spatial Modal Analysis and Prediction of Tropospheric CO Concentration over the World and East Asia

Spatiotemporal modal analysis and prediction of tropospheric atmospheric CO concentration in the world and East Asia from 2002 to 2021 using the inversion data of airs sounder. The results show that: The CO concentration in the northern hemisphere is higher than that in the southern hemisphere; from the upper troposphere to the lower troposphere, the CO concentration changes from “∧“ to “√”; the fluctuation range of near surface CO concentration in the northern hemisphere is relatively intense, and the fluctuation range in the southern hemisphere is relatively small. Using MK, Sen slope estimation, and EOF analysis, it is found that CO concentration in the convective middle layer tends to decline in more than 90% of the global area, and the decline rate in the northern hemisphere is significantly higher than that in the southern hemisphere. In East Asia, the CO concentration in the lower tropospheric marine area is significantly lower than that in the land area. The average concentration and decline rate of CO in East Asia is always higher than that in the world; the CO concentration in East Asia is the highest in spring and winter in the lower troposphere; and the CO concentration in East Asia is lower in the northeast and higher in the southeast in the upper troposphere in spring, autumn, and winter, and higher in the northeast and Central Plains in summer. Compared with the three-exponential smoothing model, the prediction error of the VMD-LSTM hybrid model for atmospheric CO concentration is significantly reduced, which indicates that the improved neural network prediction model has higher prediction accuracy. The factors affecting the change of tropospheric CO concentration are not only affected by the ground factors, but also related to indirect factors such as water vapor, methane, and atmospheric temperature in the atmosphere.

Assessment of Predictors for SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies Decline Rate in Health Care Workers after BNT162b2 Vaccination-Results from a Serological Survey.

Background: SARS-CoV-2 is a novel human pathogen causing Coronavirus Disease 2019 that has caused widespread global mortality and morbidity. Since health workers in Israel were among the first to be vaccinated, we had a unique opportunity to investigate the post-vaccination level of IgG anti-S levels antibodies (Abs) and their dynamics by demographic and professional factors. Methods: Prospective Serological Survey during December 2020–August 2021 at Barzilai Medical Center among 458 health care workers (HCW) followed for 6 months after the second BNT162b2 vaccine dose. Results: Antibody levels before the second dose, and 30, 90 and 180 days after were 57.1 ± 29.2, 223 ± 70.2, 172.8 ± 73.3 and 166.4 ± 100.7 AU/mL, respectively. From GEE analysis, females had higher Abs levels (β = 26.37 AU/mL, p = 0.002). Age was negatively associated with Abs, with a 1.17 AU/mL decrease for each additional year (p < 0.001). Direct contact with patients was associated with lower Abs by 25.02 AU/mL (p = 0.009) compared to working with no such contact. The average decline rate overall for the study period was 3.0 ± 2.9 AU/mL per week without differences by demographic parameters and was faster during the first 3 months after vaccination than in the subsequent 3 months. Conclusions: All demographic groups experienced a decline in Abs over time, faster during the first 3 months. Findings of overall Abs lower in males, workers with direct contact with patients, and older workers, should be considered for policy-making about choosing priority populations for additional vaccine doses in hospital settings.

Detection of spreading depolarization events and spatiotemporal analysis for advancing stroke therapy.

While the presence of spreading depolarization (SD) and associated spreading depression have been well studied and known to be associated with post-ischemic brain damage, the spatiotemporal spread of these events from the site of injury is not well understood. With the recent development of high-density micro-electrocorticographic (ECoG) electrode arrays, monitoring the spread of the depolarizing events and associated depression is possible. The goal of this work is to define the electrocorticographic features of SD and associated depression across the multichannel array and search for patterns in these features that emerge across both space and time. We present the spatial distribution of features found from chronic ECoG recordings acquired from awake behaving rats induced with a rodent model of stroke. SD events were detected with an unsupervised algorithm that searched for a stereotyped pattern in the first derivative of the ECoG. The algorithm yielded a 58% correct detection rate on average across four rats, and a 36% false positive rate. We defined key electrophysiological features and mapped them onto the physical brain regions using MATLAB, such as the peak-to-peak amplitude of each SD event, the width (or duration) of the SD event, direct current (DC) level, and average rate of decline in the signal baseline. We performed k-means clustering to the activity in this feature space which yielded three contiguous regions in physical space. The elbow optimization method was applied to a distortion metric and indicated that 3 clusters was optimal. These findings motivate us to conduct future studies that would verify whether these 3 clusters in electrode-space correspond to immunohistochemically defined regions of tissue health, namely, infarct, penumbra, and healthy tissue. Clinical Relevance- The extent and severity of damage that stroke ultimately causes is suspected to be related to the progression of spreading depolarization and associated depression. An understanding of how the features of these electrophysiological events progress across the brain and over time is an important step toward eventual development of closed-loop therapies which limit and minimize the long-term effects of stroke.

ИСПОЛЬЗОВАНИЕ РЕЗУЛЬТАТОВ ГЕМАТОЛОГИЧЕСКИХ ТЕСТОВ ДЛЯ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЯ СТЕПЕНИ ТЯЖЕСТИ ОСТРЫХ ЛУЧЕВЫХ ПОРАЖЕНИЙ НА РАННЕМ ЭТАПЕ

Purpose: Investigation of the predictive value of information on the concentrations of neutrophils and lymphocytes in the peripheral blood of victims of radiation accidents in the first days (2 to 9) after exposure to predict the severity of acute radiation injury. Material and methods: Data on the post-radiation dynamics of the concentrations of lymphocytes and neutrophils in the peripheral blood of victims of the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in 1986 from the database on acute radiation injuries to humans of the A.I. Burnasyan Federal Medical Biophysical Center was used. Correlation analysis was used as a research method. Results: Due to the fact that in the period from the 2nd to the 9th day after irradiation, the concentration of lymphocytes in the peripheral blood does not change significantly, and the concentration of neutrophils has a persistent tendency to decrease in the dose range of more than 2 Gy, in addition to the widespread lymphocyte test, operative characteristics for dose-response analysis such as average relative rates of decline in neutrophil concentrations (neutrophil test) and the ratio of neutrophil to lymphocyte concentrations (NLR test) in peripheral blood were proposed. The results of the isolated use of the proposed tests are investigated. The analyzed parameters were the average concentration of lymphocytes on days 2–4 after irradiation and the average relative rates of decrease in the concentration of neutrophils and the ratio of the concentrations of neutrophils to lymphocytes (NLR) in the peripheral blood of the victims. Estimates show that the neutrophil test (σ = 1.16 Gy) has the highest accuracy in the dose range up to 8 Gy with the isolated use of tests compared to the lymphocyte test (σ = 1.42 Gy) and the NLR test (σ = 1.31 Gy). An algorithm for using the so-called combined test, which is a functional superposition of data on the post-radiation dynamics of the concentration of lymphocytes and neutrophils in peripheral blood in the period from 2 to 9 days after irradiation, which gives a higher predictive accuracy of the dose estimate (σ = 0.9 Gy). Conclusion: The proposed combined test has a higher predictive value in assessing the severity of acute radiation injury compared with the use of isolated lymphocytic, neutrophilic and NLR tests in clinical practice.