Austral Summer Period Research Articles

Spatio-temporal variability of Atmospheric CO2 and CH4 concentrations over Antarctica using Ground and Space-based measurements

The present study reports on the variability of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) concentrations over Antarctica using data collected during the 2015–2016 and 2016–2017 as part of the Indian Scientific Expedition to Antarctica (ISEA). During the austral summer (January–March), this study examined the spatio-temporal variability in atmospheric CO2 and CH4 concentrations at the Indian Antarctic Stations (IAS). An average atmospheric CO2 concentration was observed to be 396.25 ± 4.20 ppm at Bharati station during 2015-16 austral summer period, whereas CO2 (CH4) concentrations were 398.7 ± 0.46 ppm (1780 ± 2 ppb) and 399.1 ± 0.41 ppm (1780 ± 3 ppb) at Bharati and Maitri stations, respectively during 2016–17. During the study period, the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) based column averaged CO2 concentration shows similar values against records. At Bharati and Maitri, the diurnal amplitudes of CO2 (CH4) are varied from 0.11 ppm (0.37 ppb) to 8.90 ppm (11.44 ppb) and 0.54 ppm (1.96 ppb) to 7.30 ppm (16 ppb), respectively. In the austral summer, dominant winds at the IAS are from the east, northeast, and southeast.

Microbial Biofilm Colonizing Plastic Substrates in the Ross Sea (Antarctica): First Overview of Community-Level Physiological Profiles

The microbial colonization of plastic substrates made of polyvinylchloride (PVC) and polyethylene (PE) was studied in Tethys and Road Bays (Ross Sea, Antarctica) in order to evaluate the metabolic profiles of the plastisphere community in comparison with those of the surrounding waters. PVC and PE panels, mounted on stainless steel structures, were deployed in the austral summer 2017 at 5 and 20 m and recovered one year later at four different stations (Amorphous Glacier-AG was potentially impacted by the ice-melting process, and its control site was within Tethys Bay-TB; Road Bay-RB, close to the wastewater plant of the Italian research station Mario Zucchelli and its control site Punta Stocchino-PTS). Additional panels were settled in Road Bay at 5 m and recovered after three months to follow time variability in the microbial colonization process. At the same times and depths as plastic substrates, water samples were also collected. Carbon substrates’ utilization rates were determined on scraped microbial biofilm and water samples, with a fluorimetric assay based on 96-well Biolog Ecoplates. Complex carbon sources, carbohydrate and amines were the organic substrates that mostly fuelled the community metabolism in the RB area, while in the TB area, in addition to carbohydrates, phosphate carbon compounds and amino acids were also actively utilized. Within Road Bay, small differences in the physiological profiles were found, with higher metabolic rates in the biofilm community after 3 months’ deployment (late austral summer period) compared to 12 months, suggesting that autumn to spring period conditions negatively affected foulers’ metabolism. Moreover, different metabolic profiles between the plastisphere and the pelagic microbial community were observed; this last utilized a higher number of carbon sources, while plastic substrates were colonized by a more specialized community. Higher carbon substrate utilization rates were recorded at RB and AG stations, receiving organic supply from anthropic activity or ice melting sources, respectively, compared to their control sites. These results highlighted the functional plasticity of the microbial community, with the adaptive ability to utilize a diversified range of organic substrates.

Variability in acoustic backscatter and fish school abundance at a shallow water CCS site

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is one approach used to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to the atmosphere. Subsea CO2 storage sites must have low risk of leakage and have minimal impact on the marine environment. Single beam echosounders (SBES) are a good technology for detecting CO2 leakage in the water column for application in a marine Measurement, Monitoring and Verification (MM&V) framework. Characterisation of active acoustic data is needed to determine whether levels of water column backscatter enable CO2 gas leaks to be detected, and to understand acoustic false positives caused by naturally occurring acoustic signals (e.g., fish schools). We used acoustic data collected by SBES fitted to two mobile and two fixed sensor platforms over four years to characterise the site of the proposed CarbonNet CCS Project subsurface CO2 storage reservoir. We observed diel and seasonal variability in water column backscatter and fish school abundance. Water column backscatter was highest at night and in Austral summer and autumn periods but was at a level that would allow small CO2 gas leaks to be detected. Fish abundance was highest during the day and in Austral summer and autumn. To reduce the likelihood of acoustic false positives, surveys designed to detect CO2 gas leaks using active acoustic technologies could prioritise data collection at night and during the months where fish school abundance is lowest. Understanding these sources of natural variability can guide survey strategies and response actions.

Microbial Parameters as Predictors of Heterotrophic Prokaryotic Production in the Ross Sea Epipelagic Waters (Antarctica) during the Austral Summer

A regression-based approach was used to test the suitability of a range of parameters, including total prokaryotic cell abundance and biomass, as lipopolysaccharide (LPS) content, and exoenzymatic activities (leucine aminopeptidase, LAP, beta-glucosidase, ß-G, and alkaline phosphatase, AP) as predictors of heterotrophic prokaryotic production (HPP) in the Ross Sea epipelagic waters. A close association between HPP and protein hydrolysis mediated by enzymatic activity (LAP), and to a lower significance level with the other variables, was recorded. Three multiple regression equations were developed from two microbial datasets collected during middle austral summer periods. All showed a good predictive ability for HPP, and this was further validated through a comparison between the predicted and the observed HPP values. The obtained regression equations proved to represent a promising example of empirical models for further predictive studies in the Ross Sea where—through the incorporation of additional microbiological and environmental parameters—the developed models could find a practical application to cover the entire austral summer period.

Microbial Biofilms Colonizing Plastic Substrates in the Ross Sea (Antarctica)

Very few studies have investigated marine microbial colonization in polar regions, but climate-changing scenarios stress the importance of these investigations to protect life in such extremely vulnerable ecosystems. In two different coastal sites of the Ross Sea (Road and Tethys Bays, Antarctica) exposed to different stressors, the microbial biofilm colonizing the surface of plastic (polyvinyl chloride, PVC, and polyethylene, PE) panels left submerged in two experiments at different timescales (“short-term”: 3 months, and “long-term”: 9 and 12 months) was studied. The abundance and metabolic enzymatic activities [leucine aminopeptidase (LAP), beta-glucosidase (GLU) and alkaline phosphatase (AP)] of the prokaryotes and the microalgal abundance and species composition were analyzed, in parallel with the main environmental parameters. The prokaryotic community showed higher abundance and metabolic activities on PVC than on PE as opposed to microalgae. A peak in the microfouling prokaryotic abundance and metabolic functions was frequently recorded after 3 months of immersion, corresponding to the late austral summer period. LAP and AP were the most active enzymes, suggesting that microbial metabolic profiles were modulated by labile organic substrates. Our results suggest that the composition and function of microbial biofilm could be considered as sentinels of natural or anthropic-related disturbances.

Elevated particulate methanesulfonate, oxalate and iron over Sydney Harbour in the austral summer of 2019-20 during unprecedented bushfire activity

In the austral summer period, Dec 7, 2019 to Mar 1, 2020, which included unprecedented bushfire activity, total suspended particulate concentrations of methanesulfonate (MSA), oxalate, labile iron, SO42−, Cl−, Na+, K+, NH4+, water soluble solids (WSS) and water soluble organic carbon (WSOC) were measured from weekly filter samples at Seaforth on the northern edge of Sydney Harbour. Particle number concentrations (PNC) and meteorological conditions were also measured at hourly intervals. These entities were previously measured in the spring-summer period, Sep 30, 2018 to Feb 24, 2019. Data analysis is focussed on inter-comparison between the summer of 2018–19 (S1) and 2019–20 (S2) spanning the period 7 Dec to 24 Feb. During S2 seasonally averaged MSA, oxalate, labile iron, K+, PNC (0.5–2.5 μm), and WSOC were elevated by 102%, 57%, 64%, 72%, 108%, and 1907%, respectively, by comparison to S1. Aqueous phase secondary formation of oxalate and a marine source of MSA were evident during S1; however, during S2 it was indicated that the bushfires created conditions where oxalate formation was shifted away from aqueous phase processing and MSA became associated with bushfire generated WSOC aerosol. Correlation changes at the a = 0.05 significance level between S1 and S2 for MSA, and for oxalate, are examined and discussed in relation to effects apparently caused by the bushfires. It is indicated that the biogeochemical cycling of sulfur and carbon, and particulate deposition of iron micronutrient to the South Pacific Ocean, may be altered by bushfires in Australia.

Decades of dietary data demonstrate regional food web structures in the Southern Ocean.

Understanding regional‐scale food web structure in the Southern Ocean is critical to informing fisheries management and assessments of climate change impacts on Southern Ocean ecosystems and ecosystem services. Historically, a large component of Southern Ocean ecosystem research has focused on Antarctic krill, which provide a short, highly efficient food chain, linking primary producers to higher trophic levels. Over the last 15 years, the presence of alternative energy pathways has been identified and hypotheses on their relative importance in different regions raised. Using the largest circumpolar dietary database ever compiled, we tested these hypotheses using an empirical circumpolar comparison of food webs across the four major regions/sectors of the Southern Ocean (defined as south of 40°S) within the austral summer period. We used network analyses and generalizations of taxonomic food web structure to confirm that while Antarctic krill are dominant as the mid‐trophic level for the Atlantic and East Pacific food webs (including the Scotia Arc and Western Antarctic Peninsula), mesopelagic fish and other krill species are dominant contributors to predator diets in the Indian and West Pacific regions (East Antarctica and the Ross Sea). We also highlight how tracking data and habitat modeling for mobile top predators in the Southern Ocean show that these species integrate food webs over large regional scales. Our study provides a quantitative assessment, based on field observations, of the degree of regional differentiation in Southern Ocean food webs and the relative importance of alternative energy pathways between regions.

Atmospheric reactive mercury concentrations in coastal Australia and the Southern Ocean

Mercury (Hg), especially reactive Hg (RM), data from the Southern Hemisphere (SH) are limited. In this study, long-term measurements of both gaseous elemental Hg (GEM) and RM were made at two ground-based monitoring locations in Australia, the Cape Grim Baseline Air Pollution Station (CGBAPS) in Tasmania, and the Macquarie University Automatic Weather Station (MQAWS) in Sydney, New South Wales. Measurements were also made on board the Australian RV Investigator (RVI) during an ocean research voyage to the East Antarctic coast. GEM was measured using the standard Tekran® 2537 series analytical platform, and RM was measured using cation exchange membranes (CEM) in a filter-based sampling method. Overall mean RM concentrations at CGBAPS and MQAWS were 15.9 ± 6.7 pg m−3 and 17.8 ± 6.6 pg m−3, respectively. For the 10-week austral summer period on RVI, mean RM was 23.5 ± 6.7 pg m−3.RM concentrations at CGBAPS were seasonally invariable, while those at MQAWS were significantly different between summer and winter due to seasonal changes in synoptic wind patterns. During the RVI voyage, RM concentrations were relatively enhanced along the Antarctic coast (up to 30 pg m−3) and GEM concentrations were variable (0.2 to 0.9 ng m−3), suggesting periods of enrichment and depletion. Both RM and GEM concentrations were relatively lower while transiting the Southern Ocean farther north of Antarctica. RM concentrations measured in this study were higher in comparison to most other reported measurements of RM in the global marine boundary layer (MBL), especially for remote SH locations. As observations of GEM and RM concentrations inform global ocean-atmosphere model simulations of the atmospheric Hg budget, our results have important implications for understanding of total atmospheric Hg (TAM).

Warmer and less variable temperatures favour an accelerated plant phenology of two invasive weeds across sub‐Antarctic Macquarie Island

AbstractThe great plasticity and diverse reproductive strategies of invasive alien plants are widely assumed to contribute to invasion success, even in extreme areas, often displacing native species. In this context, climate change creates new opportunities for biological invasions. Environmental variability and global warming are two of the climatic processes that may promote invasiveness, since alien species modulate their phenology to succeed under these circumstances. We monitored the phenological development (phenological stage advancement) of the two main invasive alien species: Poa annua L. and Cerastium fontanum Baumg. in the sub‐Antarctic Macquarie Island during the austral summer period along an altitudinal gradient. We found that higher temperatures lead to increased plant height and accelerated phenological development than lower temperatures in P. annua but found no direct evidence of the latter in C. fontanum. However, increased temperature variability negatively affected the phenological development of both species. Interestingly, despite their different reproductive strategy (rapid and impromptu in P. annua, and more synchronic and gradual in C. fontanum), both species prolifically succeeded in producing seeds at all sites showing the great acclimation of these two alien species even in limiting conditions. Since both alien species in Macquarie Island showed larger size and faster phenology at lower altitudes (i.e. milder conditions), this would indicate a great influence of ameliorating abiotic extremes on alien plant invasive capabilities at environmental extremes. Thus, our results warn of the increasing capabilities under climatic warming scenarios for alien plants to reproduce even at such remote ranges. This highlights the need to reinforce calls for special attention to prevent the spread of these kinds of species to other similar sub‐polar areas, where intensive post‐introduction management may be difficult or expensive.

Temporal changes in the growth of a crustacean species, Portunus armatus, in a temperate marine embayment: evidence of density dependence

AbstractGrowth is a key attribute influencing population dynamics and fishery production, and understanding factors that affect the growth of individuals in a population is essential in fisheries science and management. This study analyses 18 years of fishery-independent trawl data to determine the relationships among temperature, density, primary productivity and growth of the blue swimmer crab, Portunus armatus, in a temperate marine embayment. Growth was modelled using mixture distribution analyses and cohort-specific seasonal growth curves to estimate the size of crabs at the age of 0.5 and 1.5 years. Growth was highly seasonal, with size-at-age increasing during the austral summer periods and slowing/ceasing during the cooler winter months. The results from the mixture models were used to estimate the mean size of the 0.5- and 1.5-year-old crabs in each year. Linear models showed that the mean size of adult P. armatus at 1.5 years was negatively related to the density of juvenile (0.5 year) crabs in the previous year (i.e. the same cohort) and chlorophyll a concentrations in this year. Increased chlorophyll a levels may increase the survival of larval and megalopal P. armatus, leading to density-dependent effects such as increased competition among juveniles for food and spatial resources, and ultimately, reduced growth.

New particle formation events observed at the King Sejong Station, Antarctic Peninsula – Part 2: Link with the oceanic biological activities

Abstract. Marine biota is an important source of atmospheric aerosol particles in the remote marine atmosphere. However, the relationship between new particle formation and marine biota is poorly quantified. Long-term observations (from 2009 to 2016) of the physical properties of atmospheric aerosol particles measured at the Antarctic Peninsula (King Sejong Station; 62.2∘ S, 58.8∘ W) and satellite-derived estimates of the biological characteristics were analyzed to identify the link between new particle formation and marine biota. New particle formation events in the Antarctic atmosphere showed distinct seasonal variations, with the highest values occurring when the air mass originated from the ocean domain during the productive austral summer (December, January and February). Interestingly, new particle formation events were more frequent in the air masses that originated from the Bellingshausen Sea than in those that originated from the Weddell Sea. The monthly mean number concentration of nanoparticles (2.5–10 nm in diameter) was >2-fold higher when the air masses passed over the Bellingshausen Sea than the Weddell Sea, whereas the biomass of phytoplankton in the Weddell Sea was more than ∼70 % higher than that of the Bellingshausen Sea during the austral summer period. Dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is of marine origin and its oxidative products are known to be one of the major components in the formation of new particles. Both satellite-derived estimates of the biological characteristics (dimethylsulfoniopropionate, DMSP; precursor of DMS) and phytoplankton taxonomic composition and in situ methanesulfonic acid (84 daily measurements during the summer period in 2013 and 2014) analysis revealed that DMS(P)-rich phytoplankton were more dominant in the Bellingshausen Sea than in the Weddell Sea. Furthermore, the number concentration of nanoparticles was positively correlated with the biomass of phytoplankton during the period when DMS(P)-rich phytoplankton predominate. These results indicate that oceanic DMS emissions could play a key role in the formation of new particles; moreover, the taxonomic composition of phytoplankton could affect the formation of new particles in the Antarctic Ocean.

New particle formation events observed at King Sejong Station, Antarctic Peninsula – Part 1: Physical characteristics and contribution to cloud condensation nuclei

Abstract. The physical characteristics of aerosol particles during particle bursts observed at King Sejong Station in the Antarctic Peninsula from March 2009 to December 2016 were analyzed. This study focuses on the seasonal variation in parameters related to particle formation such as the occurrence, formation rate (FR) and growth rate (GR), condensation sink (CS) and source rate of condensable vapor. The number concentrations during new particle formation (NPF) events varied from 1707 to 83 120 cm−3, with an average of 20 649 ± 9290 cm−3, and the duration of the NPF events ranged from 0.6 to 14.4 h, with a mean of 4.6±1.5 h. The NPF event dominantly occurred during austral summer period (∼72 %). The measured mean values of FR and GR of the aerosol particles were 2.79±1.05 cm−3 s−1 and 0.68±0.27 nm h−1, respectively, showing enhanced rates in the summer season. The mean value of FR at King Sejong Station was higher than that at other sites in Antarctica, at 0.002–0.3 cm−3 s−1, while those of growth rates were relatively similar to the results observed by previous studies, at 0.4–4.3 nm h−1. The derived average values of CS and source rate of condensable vapor were (6.04±2.74)×10-3 s−1 and (5.19±3.51)×104 cm−3 s−1, respectively. The contribution of particle formation to cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentration was also investigated. The CCN concentration during the NPF period increased by approximately 11 % compared with the background concentration. In addition, the effects of the origin and pathway of air masses on the characteristics of aerosol particles during a NPF event were determined. The FRs were similar regardless of the origin and pathway, whereas the GRs of particles originating from the Antarctic Peninsula and the Bellingshausen Sea, at 0.77±0.25 and 0.76±0.30 nm h−1, respectively, were higher than those of particles originating from the Weddell Sea (0.41±0.15 nm h−1).

Variability in the ice sheet elevations over Antarctica derived from repetitive SARAL/AltiKa radar altimeter data (2013–2016)

Changes in surface elevations of polar ice sheets are the result of changes in ice dynamics and surface mass balance. Here, we present intra- and inter-annual elevation changes over the Antarctic ice sheet using the AltiKa radar altimeter’s 40 Hz geophysical data record products for the period 2013–2016. Slope corrections were applied on the elevations using a digital elevation model (DEM) available from NASA’s ice, cloud and land elevation satellite (ICESat). Comparison of elevations from AltiKa and ICESat’s DEM yielded correlation, bias and root-mean-square-deviation values of the order of 0.99, −2.88 and 23.04 m, respectively, indicating the first-level accuracy of a former dataset. Further comparison of Airborne Topographic Mapper dataset with AltiKa derived elevation yielded 0.4 m root-mean-square-deviation over a part of Vostok subglacial lake. The intra-annual change indicates that for GY2 (glaciological year), GY3 and GY4, number of negative elevation change points exceeded the number of positive elevation change points during the Antarctic austral summer period (December–February). Inter-annual elevation changes were negative during 2013–2014 and positive during 2014–2015 over east Antarctica, whereas in west Antarctica negative elevation changes were observed for both periods.

Climatology and Anomaly of the Quasi‐Two‐Day Wave Behaviors During 2003–2018 Austral Summer Periods

AbstractThe Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry satellite instrument has been measuring the mesospheric global temperature since February 2002, providing the longest continuous data set to statistically study the climatology and anomaly of the quasi‐two‐day waves (QTDWs), including the westward zonal wave number 2 (W2), 3 (W3), and 4 (W4) modes. It is found that the W2 QTDW generally peaks earliest, followed by the W3 mode with the W4 QTDW being amplified lastly. This temporal pattern is always disordered during the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) periods. The temperature oscillations of the QTDW usually peak at nearly the same period at different altitudes and different latitudes for a certain case but would be different from year to year. The statistical results show that the periods of the W2 QTDWs are more frequently observed to be at 45–48 hr and the periods of the W3 mode are mostly confined between 45 and 52 hr. Nevertheless, the oscillations of the W4 QTDW peak more dispersedly between 41 and 56 hr. The W3 QTDW is usually the strongest among the three modes, whereas it is sometimes equal to or even weaker than W2 and W4 QTDWs, especially during SSW periods. Besides, we found that the vertical distribution of the W3 QTDW splits into a bimodal structure during the SSW periods of 2006 and 2011. And the solar cycle trend of the QTDWs is frequently disturbed by a 2‐ to 5‐year variability, which seems to be a common feature for all the QTDW modes.

Investigation of the Abnormal Quasi 2‐Day Wave Activities During the Sudden Stratospheric Warming Period of January 2006

AbstractA quasi 2‐day wave (QTDW) during the austral summer period usually coincides with a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event in the winter hemisphere, while the SSW influences on QTDWs are not totally understood. In this work, the hourly Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System‐Advanced Level Physics High Altitude reanalysis data sets during January/February 2006 are utilized to study the contribution of a major SSW on the anomalous QTDW activities during the same period. Our new findings are generalized as follows: (1) The summer easterly is enhanced during a SSW event due to the interhemispheric coupling, which is clearly indicated by the anomalous cross‐equator circulation from the winter to summer mesosphere. (2) The enhanced summer easterly could sustain critical layers for QTDWs with larger phase speeds (e.g., smaller zonal wave number or shortwave period) and strengthen the summer easterly barotropic/baroclinic instabilities, which are essential for the QTDW amplification through wave‐mean flow interactions. This is why a strong westward QTDW with zonal wave number 2 is identified besides the conventionally dominant wave mode of wave number 3, and their periods are only ~42–45 hr during January 2006. (3) The strong winter planetary waves during SSW periods facilitate the occurrence of the nonlinear interaction between QTDWs and stationary planetary waves, which is strongly suggested by the abnormal temporal variations of wave number 2 and wave number 3 QTDWs. We conclude that the anomalous QTDW behaviors in summer mesosphere during January 2006 are associated with the major SSW event in the winter stratosphere.

Nutrient availability and the ultimate control of the biological carbon pump in the western tropical South Pacific Ocean

Abstract. Surface waters (0–200 m) of the western tropical South Pacific (WTSP) were sampled along a longitudinal 4000 km transect (OUTPACE cruise, DOI: 10.17600/15000900) during the austral summer (stratified) period (18 February to 3 April 2015) between the Melanesian Archipelago (MA) and the western part of the SP gyre (WGY). Two distinct areas were considered for the MA, the western MA (WMA), and the eastern MA (EMA). The main carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) pools and fluxes provide a basis for the characterization of the expected trend from oligotrophy to ultra-oligotrophy, and the building of first-order budgets at the daily and seasonal timescales (using climatology). Sea surface chlorophyll a well reflected the expected oligotrophic gradient with higher values obtained at WMA, lower values at WGY, and intermediate values at EMA. As expected, the euphotic zone depth, the deep chlorophyll maximum, and nitracline depth deepen from west to east. Nevertheless, phosphaclines and nitraclines did not match. The decoupling between phosphacline and nitracline depths in the MA allows for excess P to be locally provided in the upper water by winter mixing. We found a significant biological “soft tissue” carbon pump in the MA sustained almost exclusively by dinitrogen (N2) fixation and essentially controlled by phosphate availability in this iron-rich environment. The MA appears to be a net sink for atmospheric CO2, while the WGY is in quasi-steady state. We suggest that the necessary excess P, allowing the success of nitrogen fixers and subsequent carbon production and export, is mainly brought to the upper surface by local deep winter convection at an annual timescale rather than by surface circulation. While the origin of the decoupling between phosphacline and nitracline remains uncertain, the direct link between local P upper water enrichment, N2 fixation, and organic carbon production and export, offers a possible shorter timescale than previously thought between N input by N2 fixation and carbon export. The low iron availability in the SP gyre and P availability in the MA during the stratified period may appear as the ultimate control of N input by N2 fixation. Because of the huge volume of water to consider, and because the SP Ocean is the place of intense denitrification in the east (N sink) and N2 fixation in the west (N source), precise seasonal C, N, P, and iron (Fe) budgets would be of prime interest to understand the efficiency, at the present time and in the future, of the oceanic biological carbon pump.

Variation in the diversity and richness of parasitoid wasps based on sampling effort.

Parasitoid wasps are a mega-diverse, ecologically dominant, but poorly studied component of global biodiversity. In order to maximise the efficiency and reduce the cost of their collection, the application of optimal sampling techniques is necessary. Two sites in Auckland, New Zealand were sampled intensively to determine the relationship between sampling effort and observed species richness of parasitoid wasps from the family Ichneumonidae. Twenty traps were deployed at each site at three different times over the austral summer period, resulting in a total sampling effort of 840 Malaise-trap-days. Rarefaction techniques and non-parametric estimators were used to predict species richness and to evaluate the variation and completeness of sampling. Despite an intensive Malaise-trapping regime over the summer period, no asymptote of species richness was reached. At best, sampling captured two-thirds of parasitoid wasp species present. The estimated total number of species present depended on the month of sampling and the statistical estimator used. Consequently, the use of fewer traps would have caught only a small proportion of all species (one trap 7–21%; two traps 13–32%), and many traps contributed little to the overall number of individuals caught. However, variation in the catch of individual Malaise traps was not explained by seasonal turnover of species, vegetation or environmental conditions surrounding the trap, or distance of traps to one another. Overall the results demonstrate that even with an intense sampling effort the community is incompletely sampled. The use of only a few traps and/or for very short periods severely limits the estimates of richness because (i) fewer individuals are caught leading to a greater number of singletons; and (ii) the considerable variation of individual traps means some traps will contribute few or no individuals. Understanding how sampling effort affects the richness and diversity of parasitoid wasps is a useful foundation for future studies.

Ionospheric Variability Due to Tides and Quasi‐Two Day Wave Interactions

AbstractThe ionospheric variabilities due to planetary waves (PWs) are complicated due to their nonlinear interaction with tides (migrating diurnal and semidiurnal tides [DW1 and SW2]) in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere region. The quasi‐two day wave (QTDW) is the most dominant oscillation during austral summer period except tides. This paper quantitatively studies the contribution of W3 QTDW, secondary PWs generated by the QTDW‐tide interaction, and the change of tides to the ionospheric vertical drift variabilities. It is found that the secondary PWs generated by the QTDW‐DW1 interaction (16 hr W4 and 48 hr E2) contribute more to the ionospheric variability than those generated by the QTDW‐SW2 interaction (9.6 hr W5 and 16 hr E1). The latitudinal distribution of the vertical drift induced by tides and PWs varies due to their different wind structures. The vertical drift induced by DW1 is weakened at all latitudes due to the existence of W3 QTDW, whereas the SW2‐induced vertical drift is enhanced at low latitudes and decreased at middle latitudes. The W3 QTDW induces weaker vertical drift in the equatorial region than that induced by 16 hr W4, 48 hr E2, and the change of tides. At middle latitudes, the vertical drift induced by W3 QTDW is slightly stronger than that induced by 48 hr E2 and the change of DW1 but is comparable to that induced by 16 hr W4 and the change of SW2. Our simulations show that the changes of tidal amplitudes and secondary PWs are as important as the QTDW itself to the day‐to‐day ionospheric variabilities.

Contrasting Heat Budget Dynamics During Two La Niña Marine Heat Wave Events Along Northwestern Australia

AbstractTwo marine heat wave events along Western Australia (WA) during the alternate austral summer periods of 2010/2011 and 2012/2013, both linked to La Niña conditions, severely impacted marine ecosystems over more than 12° of latitude, which included the unprecedented bleaching of many coral reefs. Although these two heat waves were forced by similar large‐scale climate drivers, the warming patterns differed substantially between events. The central coast of WA (south of 22°S) experienced greater warming in 2010/2011, whereas the northwestern coast of WA experienced greater warming in 2012/2013. To investigate how oceanic and atmospheric heat exchange processes drove these different spatial patterns, an analysis of the ocean heat budget was conducted by integrating remote sensing observations, in situ mooring data, and a high‐resolution (∼1 km) ocean circulation model (Regional Ocean Modeling System). The results revealed substantial spatial differences in the relative contributions made by heat advection and air‐sea heat exchange between the two heat wave events. During 2010/2011, anomalous warming driven by heat advection was present throughout the region but was much stronger south of 22°S where the poleward‐flowing Leeuwin Current strengthens. During 2012/2013, air‐sea heat exchange had a much more positive (warming) influence on sea surface temperatures (especially in the northwest), and when combined with a more positive contribution of heat advection in the north, this can explain the regional differences in warming between these two La Niña‐associated marine heat wave events.

Very short-term reactive forecasting of the solar ultraviolet index using an extreme learning machine integrated with the solar zenith angle

Exposure to erythemally-effective solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR) that contributes to malignant keratinocyte cancers and associated health-risk is best mitigated through innovative decision-support systems, with global solar UV index (UVI) forecast necessary to inform real-time sun-protection behaviour recommendations. It follows that the UVI forecasting models are useful tools for such decision-making. In this study, a model for computationally-efficient data-driven forecasting of diffuse and global very short-term reactive (VSTR) (10-min lead-time) UVI, enhanced by drawing on the solar zenith angle (θs) data, was developed using an extreme learning machine (ELM) algorithm. An ELM algorithm typically serves to address complex and ill-defined forecasting problems. UV spectroradiometer situated in Toowoomba, Australia measured daily cycles (0500–1700h) of UVI over the austral summer period. After trialling activations functions based on sine, hard limit, logarithmic and tangent sigmoid and triangular and radial basis networks for best results, an optimal ELM architecture utilising logarithmic sigmoid equation in hidden layer, with lagged combinations of θs as the predictor data was developed. ELM’s performance was evaluated using statistical metrics: correlation coefficient (r), Willmott’s Index (WI), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (ENS), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE) between observed and forecasted UVI. Using these metrics, the ELM model’s performance was compared to that of existing methods: multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS), M5 Model Tree, and a semi-empirical (Pro6UV) clear sky model. Based on RMSE and MAE values, the ELM model (0.255, 0.346, respectively) outperformed the MARS (0.310, 0.438) and M5 Model Tree (0.346, 0.466) models. Concurring with these metrics, the Willmott’s Index for the ELM, MARS and M5 Model Tree models were 0.966, 0.942 and 0.934, respectively. About 57% of the ELM model’s absolute errors were small in magnitude (±0.25), whereas the MARS and M5 Model Tree models generated 53% and 48% of such errors, respectively, indicating the latter models’ errors to be distributed in larger magnitude error range. In terms of peak global UVI forecasting, with half the level of error, the ELM model outperformed MARS and M5 Model Tree. A comparison of the magnitude of hourly-cumulated errors of 10-min lead time forecasts for diffuse and global UVI highlighted ELM model’s greater accuracy compared to MARS, M5 Model Tree or Pro6UV models. This confirmed the versatility of an ELM model drawing on θsdata for VSTR forecasting of UVI at near real-time horizon. When applied to the goal of enhancing expert systems, ELM-based accurate forecasts capable of reacting quickly to measured conditions can enhance real-time exposure advice for the public, mitigating the potential for solar UV-exposure-related disease.