Atmospheric Greenhouse Effect Research Articles

Enabling Martian habitability with silica aerogel via the solid-state greenhouse effect

The low temperatures and high ultraviolet (UV) radiation levels at the surface of Mars today currently preclude the survival of life anywhere except perhaps in limited subsurface niches. Several ideas for making the martian surface more habitable have been put forward previously, but they all involve massive environmental modification that will be well beyond human capability for the foreseeable future. Here we present a new approach to this problem. We show that widespread regions of the surface of Mars could be made habitable to photosynthetic life in the future via a solid-state analogue to Earth's atmospheric greenhouse effect. Specifically, we demonstrate via experiments and modelling that under martian environmental conditions, a 2 to 3-cm thick layer of silica (SiO2) aerogel will simultaneously transmit sufficient visible light for photosynthesis, block hazardous ultraviolet radiation, and raise temperatures underneath permanently to above the melting point of water, without the need for any internal heat source. Placing silica aerogel shields over sufficiently ice-rich regions of the martian surface could therefore allow photosynthetic life to survive there with minimal subsequent intervention. This regional approach to making Mars habitable is much more achievable than global atmospheric modification. In addition, it can be developed systematically starting from minimal resources, and can be further tested in extreme environments on Earth today.

Analyzing the ability to reconstruct the moisture field using commercial microwave network data

The atmospheric greenhouse effect and the hydrological cycle of Earth are key components enabling the planet to support life. Water vapor is a central element in both of these, accounting for approximately half of the present day greenhouse effect, and comprising the most important gaseous source of atmospheric infrared opacity. Specifically, it functions as the fuel for the development of convective storm clouds. This parameter, however, is considered one of the least studied due to the limitations of conventional monitoring instruments. The current predominate monitoring tools are humidity gauges and satellites which suffer from a lack of spatial representativeness and difficulties in measuring at ground level altitudes, respectively. This study demonstrates the potential to reconstruct the 2-Dimensional humidity field using commercial microwave links which form the infrastructure for data transmission in cellular networks. Water vapor attenuates the waves transmitted by the system and thus these microwave links can potentially form as a virtual network for monitoring the humidity field. The results show a correlation of between 0.79 and 0.93 with root mean square differences ranging from 1.78 to 2.92 g/m3 between conventional humidity gauges and the humidity estimates calculated for the same points in space by the proposed technology. The results obtained are the first to point out the improved performance of humidity measurements when using data from multiple microwave links. These outcomes indicate the tremendous potential of this novel approach for improving the initialization of meteorological forecasting models thus potentially improving the ability to cope with the dangers associated with extreme weather.

Cosmic ray and solar activity influences on long-term variations of cave climate systems

During the analysis of solar activity impact on climate, the emphasis is placed on temperature changes. Earth's atmosphere is a dynamical system with a complex variability in space and time. Due to the fact that caves in Karst preserve the long term environmental changes, the investigation of the in-caves’ atmospheric parameters and their variations with time becomes very important in the last quarter of century. In this paper we investigate the temporal evolution of the temperature and pressure of the ground atmospheric layer in the region of two Bulgarian caves: Snezhanka (Pazardjik region) and Uhlovitsa (Smolyan region), during the period 2005–2017. We show that thermal and mass exchange of the caves’ air with the environment has significant temporal variations. On annual basis the thermo-dynamical parameters of the observed caves behaves as a barotropic fluid, in which the air density depends only on atmospheric pressure. As a result, the temporal evolution of in-caves’ pressure and temperature change synchronously with time. The observed 11-year signal could be attributed to the heliospheric modulation of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity, which modulates the ozone and humidity near the tropopause and correspondingly the strength of the atmospheric greenhouse effect. Our study helps to clarify the influence of helio-geophysical factors on the state of the lower atmosphere.

Has global warming already arrived?

The enhancement of the atmospheric greenhouse effect due to the increase in the atmospheric greenhouse gases is often considered as responsible for global warming (known as greenhouse hypothesis of global warming). In this context, the temperature field of global troposphere and lower stratosphere over the period 12/1978–07/2018 is explored using the recent Version 6 of the UAH MSU/AMSU global satellite temperature dataset. Our analysis did not show a consistent warming with gradual increase from low to high latitudes in both hemispheres, as it should be from the global warming theory. In addition, in the lower stratosphere the temperature cooling over both poles is lower than that over tropics and extratropics. To study further the thermal field variability we investigated the long-range correlations throughout the global lower troposphere-lower stratosphere region. The results show that the temperature field displays power-law behaviour that becomes stronger by going from the lower troposphere to the tropopause.This power-law behaviour suggests that the fluctuations in global tropospheric temperature at short intervals are positively correlated with those at longer intervals in a power-law manner. The latter, however, does not apply to global temperature in the lower stratosphere. This suggests that the investigated intrinsic properties of the lower stratospheric temperature are not related to those of the troposphere, as is expected by the global warming theory.

Emission reduction technology and application research of surface borehole methane drainage in coal mining-influenced region

Windblown methane is an important gas resulting in atmospheric greenhouse effect. Therefore, reduction in windblown methane is one of the important measures to mitigate atmospheric greenhouse effect. In China, weak coal seam of low permeability is common in coal mines, so it is beset with difficulties to decrease the methane emission rate by means of gas drainage from the virgin coal seam, further to decrease the windblown mine gas. Utilizing the pressure relief and permeability and fluidity improvement effect in coal mining an approach to release methane emission through surface borehole was established, for example establishing a comprehensive deformation fracture model of surface borehole in extraction area based on quantitative rule of overlying rock movement in pit and forming a technology to select the surface borehole arrangement site in extraction area on the basis of deformation of bore frame structure and distribution characteristics of extraction flow field. And optimization technology of shape and structure of surface borehole in extraction area on the basis of ultimate stress analysis of surface borehole casing was given. The technology overcomes effectively the problem that surface borehole casing is vulnerable to premature fracture due to impact of strata movement on the surface borehole, and further increases the drainage result of the surface borehole. The technology has been test in China Shanxi Jincheng Sihe Coal Mine, achieving good results, including 12,000 Nm3/d pure methane drainage rate from single borehole, 85% methane concentration and 1.1 million Nm3 accumulative methane drainage, which demonstrate practicability and advanced performance of the technology.

Role of greenhouse gases in climate change

This study examines the concept of ‘greenhouse gases’ and various definitions of the phenomenon known as the ‘Atmospheric Radiative Greenhouse Effect’. The six most quoted descriptions are as follows: (a) radiation trapped between the Earth’s surface and its atmosphere; (b) the insulating blanket of the atmosphere that keeps the Earth warm; (c) back radiation from the atmosphere to the Earth’s surface; (d) Infra Red absorbing gases that hinder radiative cooling and keep the surface warmer than it would otherwise be – known as ‘otherwise radiation’; (e) differences between actual surface temperatures of the Earth (as also observed on Venus) and those based on calculations; (f) any gas that absorbs infrared radiation emitted from the Earth’s surface towards free space. It is shown that none of the above descriptions can withstand the rigours of scientific scrutiny when the fundamental laws of physics and thermodynamics are applied to them.

Clouds, warm air, and a climate cooling signal over the summer Arctic

AbstractWhile the atmospheric greenhouse effect always results in a warming at the surface, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) to space always represents a cooling. During events of heat and moisture advection into the Arctic, increases in tropospheric temperature and moisture impact clouds, in turn impacting longwave (LW) radiation. State‐of‐the‐art satellite measurements and atmospheric reanalysis consistently reveal an enhancement of summer Arctic monthly OLR cooling ranging 1.5–4 W m−2 during months with anomalously high thermodynamic advection. This cooling anomaly is found to be of the same magnitude or slightly larger than associated downwelling LW surface warming anomalies. We identify a relationship between large‐scale circulation variability and changing cloud properties permitting LW radiation at both the surface and top of the atmosphere to respond to variability in atmospheric thermodynamics. Driven by anomalous advection of warm air, the corresponding enhanced OLR cooling signal on monthly time scales represents an important buffer to regional Arctic warming.

New Insights on the Physical Nature of the Atmospheric Greenhouse Effect Deduced from an Empirical Planetary Temperature Model

A recent study has revealed that the Earth’s natural atmospheric greenhouse effect is around 90 K or about 2.7 times stronger than assumed for the past 40 years. A thermal enhancement of such a magnitude cannot be explained with the observed amount of outgoing infrared long-wave radiation absorbed by the atmosphere (i.e. ≈ 158 W m-2), thus requiring a re-examination of the underlying Greenhouse theory. We present here a new investigation into the physical nature of the atmospheric thermal effect using a novel empirical approach toward predicting the Global Mean Annual near-surface equilibrium Temperature (GMAT) of rocky planets with diverse atmospheres. Our method utilizes Dimensional Analysis (DA) applied to a vetted set of observed data from six celestial bodies representing a broad range of physical environments in our Solar System, i.e. Venus, Earth, the Moon, Mars, Titan (a moon of Saturn), and Triton (a moon of Neptune). Twelve relationships (models) suggested by DA are explored via non-linear regression analyses that involve dimensionless products comprised of solar irradiance, greenhouse-gas partial pressure/density and total atmospheric pressure/density as forcing variables, and two temperature ratios as dependent variables. One non-linear regression model is found to statistically outperform the rest by a wide margin. Our analysis revealed that GMATs of rocky planets with tangible atmospheres and a negligible geothermal surface heating can accurately be predicted over a broad range of conditions using only two forcing variables: top-of-the-atmosphere solar irradiance and total surface atmospheric pressure. The hereto discovered interplanetary pressure-temperature relationship is shown to be statistically robust while describing a smooth physical continuum without climatic tipping points. This continuum fully explains the recently discovered 90 K thermal effect of Earth’s atmosphere. The new model displays characteristics of an emergent macro-level thermodynamic relationship heretofore unbeknown to science that has important theoretical implications. A key entailment from the model is that the atmospheric ‘greenhouse effect’ currently viewed as a radiative phenomenon is in fact an adiabatic (pressure-induced) thermal enhancement analogous to compression heating and independent of atmospheric composition. Consequently, the global down-welling long-wave flux presently assumed to drive Earth’s surface warming appears to be a product of the air temperature set by solar heating and atmospheric pressure. In other words, the so-called ‘greenhouse back radiation’ is globally a result of the atmospheric thermal effect rather than a cause for it. Our empirical model has also fundamental implications for the role of oceans, water vapour, and planetary albedo in global climate. Since produced by a rigorous attempt to describe planetary temperatures in the context of a cosmic continuum using an objective analysis of vetted observations from across the Solar System, these findings call for a paradigm shift in our understanding of the atmospheric ‘greenhouse effect’ as a fundamental property of climate.

Using Earth’s Moon as a Testbed for Quantifying the Effect of the Terrestrial Atmosphere

In the past, the planetary radiation balance served to quantify the atmospheric greenhouse effect by the difference between the globally averaged near-surface temperature of and the respective effective radiation temperature of the Earth without atmosphere of resulting in . Since such a “thought experiment” prohibits any rigorous assessment of its results, this study considered the Moon as a testbed for the Earth in the absence of its atmosphere. Since the angular velocity of Moon’s rotation is 27.4 times slower than that of the Earth, the forcing method, the force-restore method, and a multilayer-force-restore method, used in climate modeling during the past four decades, were alternatively applied to address the influence of the angular velocity in determining the Moon’s globally averaged skin (or slab) temperature, . The multilayer-force-restore method always provides the highest values for , followed by the force-restore method and the forcing method, but the differences are marginal. Assuming a solar albedo of , a relative emissivity , and a solar constant of and applying the multilayer-force-restore method yielded and for the Moon. Using the same values for α, ε, and S, but assuming the Earth’s angular velocity for the Moon yielded and quantifying the effect of the terrestrial atmosphere by . A sensitivity study for a solar albedo of commonly assumed for the Earth in the absence of its atmosphere yielded , , and . This means that the atmospheric effect would be more than twice as large as the aforementioned difference of 33 K. To generalize the findings, twelve synodic months (i.e., 354 Earth days) and 365 Earth days, where , a Sun-zenith-distance dependent solar albedo, and the variation of the solar radiation in dependence of the actual orbit position and the tilt angle of the corresponding rotation axis to the ecliptic were considered. The case of Moon’s true angular velocity yielded and . Whereas Earth’s 27.4 times higher angular velocity yielded , and . In both cases, the effective radiation temperature is , because the computed global albedo is . Thus, the effective radiation temperature yields flawed results when used for quantifying the atmospheric greenhouse effect.

A Hiatus of the Greenhouse Effect.

The rate at which the global average surface temperature is increasing has slowed down since the end of the last century. This study investigates whether this warming hiatus results from a change in the well-known greenhouse effect. Using long-term, reliable, and consistent observational data from the Earth’s surface and the top of the atmosphere (TOA), two monthly gridded atmospheric and surface greenhouse effect parameters (Ga and Gs) are estimated to represent the radiative warming effects of the atmosphere and the surface in the infrared range from 1979 to 2014. The atmospheric and surface greenhouse effect over the tropical monsoon-prone regions is found to contribute substantially to the global total. Furthermore, the downward tendency of cloud activity leads to a greenhouse effect hiatus after the early 1990 s, prior to the warming pause. Additionally, this pause in the greenhouse effect is mostly caused by the high number of La Niña events between 1991 and 2014. A strong La Niña indicates suppressed convection in the tropical central Pacific that reduces atmospheric water vapor content and cloud volume. This significantly weakened regional greenhouse effect offsets the enhanced warming influence in other places and decelerates the rising global greenhouse effect. This work suggests that the greenhouse effect hiatus can be served as an additional factor to cause the recent global warming slowdown.

Solar activity cloudiness effect on NH warming for 1980–2095

We use a Thermodynamic Climate Model (TCM) to compute the Northern Hemisphere temperature anomaly for the period 1980–2095, corresponding to the global warming (GW) by the increase of the atmospheric CO2; the GW is in turn diminished as a consequence of the negative anomaly of the solar activity (SA), giving a warming reduction (WR). So the CO2 and the SA represent external climate forcings. The total solar irradiance (TSI) is the main manifestation of the SA and of course is the climate driver; the SA produces besides the solar wind that modulates the flux of galactic cosmic rays (GCR), which in turn modifies the low cloud cover, that by itself influences inversely the mid cloud cover; the combination of both cloudiness yields the so called relevant cloud cover. The GCR-cloudiness effect has a delay of ∼1yr with respect to TSI effect, which is the time for a SA change to reach the heliopause carried by the solar wind. In order to incorporate this climate mechanism, the TCM now includes the warming due to the vapor condensation by GCR, which causes a decrease in the magnitude of the WR. The TCM was improved by incorporating it new parameterizations of three mechanisms, which are activated by the GW: the atmospheric lapse rate changes; the water vapor emissivity between 8 and 12.5μ is computed with the E-Trans/HITRAN calculator; and changes in this emissivity band according to the relative humidity changes. The 11-yr variability of the TSI time series is filtered to get the trend along 21st century. Two IPCC (2001, 2007) CO2 emission scenarios are used: the high A1FI and the low A1T. Emphasis is made on the results for two particular years: one corresponding to the deepest part of the TSI grand solar minimum in the year 2029, and the other to the end of the century, 2095. The main thermal feedbacks included in TCM are those due to the atmospheric greenhouse effect by water vapor, to the cryosphere-albedo and to cloudiness-albedo.By 2100 the GW from the TCM is 5.1°C for A1FI and 2.6°C for A1T. On 2029 and including all the model forcings and feedbacks, and for those scenarios, the WR is 0.31 and 0.33°C, respectively; by 2095, the corresponding values are ∼0.17 and ∼0.12°C. When the warming due to vapor condensation induced by the GCR effect is excluded, for A1FI the WR increases from 0.31 to 0.53°C by 2029, and from 0.17 to 0.29°C by 2095; and for A1T from 0.33 to 0.65°C by 2029, and from 0.12 to 0.23°C by 2095. The net GW (including the WR) for both scenarios is within the range reported by the IPCC (2001). The WR is greater for the A1T on 2029, which indicates that an atmosphere with less CO2 is more sensitive to the SA. Thus, we obtain the interesting result that the heat released in this process, masks to some degree the climate effect that these clouds have on the GW.

Projections of the advance in the start of the growing season during the 21st century based on CMIP5 simulations

It is well-known that global warming due to anthropogenic atmospheric greenhouse effects advanced the start of the vegetation growing season (SOS) across the globe during the 20th century. Projections of further changes in the SOS for the 21st century under certain emissions scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs) are useful for improving understanding of the consequences of global warming. In this study, we first evaluate a linear relationship between the SOS (defined using the normalized difference vegetation index) and the April temperature for most land areas of the Northern Hemisphere for 1982–2008. Based on this relationship and the ensemble projection of April temperature under RCPs from the latest state-of-the-art global coupled climate models, we show the possible changes in the SOS for most of the land areas of the Northern Hemisphere during the 21st century. By around 2040–59, the SOS will have advanced by −4.7 days under RCP2.6, −8.4 days under RCP4.5, and −10.1 days under RCP8.5, relative to 1985–2004. By 2080–99, it will have advanced by −4.3 days under RCP2.6, −11.3 days under RCP4.5, and −21.6 days under RCP8.5. The geographic pattern of SOS advance is considerably dependent on that of the temperature sensitivity of the SOS. The larger the temperature sensitivity, the larger the date-shift-rate of the SOS.

Observational determination of surface radiative forcing by CO2 from 2000 to 2010.

The climatic impact of CO2 and other greenhouse gases is usually quantified in terms of radiative forcing, calculated as the difference between estimates of the Earth's radiation field from pre-industrial and present-day concentrations of these gases. Radiative transfer models calculate that the increase in CO2 since 1750 corresponds to a global annual-mean radiative forcing at the tropopause of 1.82±0.19Wm(-2) (ref. 2). However, despite widespread scientific discussion and modelling of the climate impacts of well-mixed greenhouse gases, there is little direct observational evidence of the radiative impact of increasing atmospheric CO2. Here we present observationally based evidence of clear-sky CO2 surface radiative forcing that is directly attributable to the increase, between 2000 and 2010, of 22 parts per million atmospheric CO2. The time series of this forcing at the two locations-the Southern Great Plains and the North Slope of Alaska-are derived from Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer spectra together with ancillary measurements and thoroughly corroborated radiative transfer calculations. The time series both show statistically significant trends of 0.2Wm(-2) per decade (with respective uncertainties of ±0.06Wm(-2) per decade and ±0.07Wm(-2) per decade) and have seasonal ranges of 0.1-0.2Wm(-2). This is approximately ten per cent of the trend in downwelling longwave radiation. These results confirm theoretical predictions of the atmospheric greenhouse effect due to anthropogenic emissions, and provide empirical evidence of how rising CO2 levels, mediated by temporal variations due to photosynthesis and respiration, are affecting the surface energy balance.

Backyard Infrared Trapping

In this time of concern over climate change due to the atmospheric greenhouse effect,1 teachers often choose to extend relevant classroom work by the use of physical models to test statements. Here we describe an activity in which inexpensive backyard models made from cardboard boxes covered with various household transparent materials allow students to explore how transmission of visible and infrared light can affect the temperature.2 Our basic setup is shown schematically in Fig. 1, in which a black-lined box with a thermometer in contact with the bottom is covered with transparent (to visible light) household materials.

Planning of methane emission control from hoggery using an inexact two-stage optimization model

This study aims to develop an inexact two-stage optimization model to gather manure distributed over the southwest Taiwan and convert it into bioenergy. In the method, local optimization of each hauling zone is performed first using a gray mixed-integer programming model. Then, the hauling zones are prioritized by its performance on four gray scenarios. Although the biogas yield and the manure generation rate are ambiguous, one can easily evaluate his opportunity and risk by gray interval, which is a group of values within the lower and upper bounds. The analyses reveal that the biogas yield dominates the profit in this project, and it leads to the failure of the project when the biogas yield is below the level of 0.2 m3 kg−1. With the goal of reducing 45% of methane emissions from pig farms, seven hauling zones are required to be developed. The farmers living in these zones from the project get carbon credits ranging from 478 to 3269 ton CO2eq per year, and the investors own the carbon credits in the range of 3264–11820 ton CO2eq per year. Through the carbon trading, both the investors and pig farmers are able to make profits by trading their carbon credits.Implications:Biogas recovered from hoggery can be used as a bioenergy source and mitigate the atmospheric greenhouse effect and global warming. This research develops an inexact two-stage optimization model to evaluate the potential of gathering manure for biogas and converting it into bioenergy. The analyses reveal that the biogas yield dominates the profit in this project, and it leads to the failure of the project when the biogas yield is below the level of 0.2 m3 kg−1. This study has provided a useful reference for the management of biogas production and carbon trading from hoggery for bioenergy.

Evaluations of atmospheric downward longwave radiation from 44 coupled general circulation models of CMIP5

AbstractAtmospheric downward longwave radiation at the surface (Ld) quantifies the atmospheric greenhouse effect. This study evaluated Ld simulations from 44 general circulation models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) with a comprehensive data set of Ld observations at 156 global‐distributed sites from 1992 to 2005. Compared with the Baseline Surface Radiation Network data that are of the highest quality among the available Ld data sets, CMIP5 GCM Ld has a negligible bias, much better than CMIP3 GCMs, likely because of the improvement of low cloud simulations in CMIP5 models. However, the selection of validation data has an important impact on the evaluation results. The global mean Ld inferred from different bias‐removing methods are nearly the same, approximately 341 W m−2 globally averaged from 1992 to 2005. CMIP5 GCMs showed that global Ld increased at a rate of 1.54 W m−2 per decade (p < 0.01) from 1979 to 2005, which is consistent with available reanalyses. This good agreement in long‐term trends of Ld is likely because both reanalyses and CMIP5 models reproduced the observed warming and the associated increase of water vapor content in the lower atmosphere. However, CMIP5 GCMs are still poor in producing monthly anomalies of Ld.

Increased insolation threshold for runaway greenhouse processes on Earth-like planets

The increase in solar luminosity over geological timescales should warm the Earth's climate, increasing water evaporation, which will in turn enhance the atmospheric greenhouse effect. Above a certain critical insolation, this destabilizing greenhouse feedback can 'run away' until the oceans have completely evaporated. Through increases in stratospheric humidity, warming may also cause evaporative loss of the oceans to space before the runaway greenhouse state occurs. The critical insolation thresholds for these processes, however, remain uncertain because they have so far been evaluated using one-dimensional models that cannot account for the dynamical and cloud feedback effects that are key stabilizing features of the Earth's climate. Here we use a three-dimensional global climate model to show that the insolation threshold for the runaway greenhouse state to occur is about 375 W m(-2), which is significantly higher than previously thought. Our model is specifically developed to quantify the climate response of Earth-like planets to increased insolation in hot and extremely moist atmospheres. In contrast with previous studies, we find that clouds have a destabilizing feedback effect on the long-term warming. However, subsident, unsaturated regions created by the Hadley circulation have a stabilizing effect that is strong enough to shift the runaway greenhouse limit to higher values of insolation than are inferred from one-dimensional models. Furthermore, because of wavelength-dependent radiative effects, the stratosphere remains sufficiently cold and dry to hamper the escape of atmospheric water, even at large fluxes. This has strong implications for the possibility of liquid water existing on Venus early in its history, and extends the size of the habitable zone around other stars.

Estimation of Endocarpon pusillum Hedwig carbon budget in the Tengger Desert based on its photosynthetic rate

This study investigated the photosynthetic rate of the lichen Endocarpon pusillum at the Chinese Academy of Sciences Shapotou Desert Research Station and estimated its annual contribution to the carbon budget in the ecosystem. The software SigmaPlot 10.0 with "Macro-Area below curves" was used to calculate the carbon fixation capacity of the lichen. The total carbon budget (ΣC) of the lichen was obtained by subtracting the respiratory carbon loss (ΣDR) from the photosynthetic carbon gain (ΣNP). Because water from precipitation plays an important role in photosynthesis in this ecosystem, the annual carbon budget of E. pusillum at the station was estimated based on the three-year average precipitation data from 2009 to 2011. Our results indicate that the lichen fixes 14.6 g C m(-2) annually. The results suggest that artificial inoculation of the crust lichen in the Tengger Desert could not only help reduce the sand and dust storms but also offer a significant carbon sink, fixing a total of 438000 t of carbon over the 30000 km(2) of the Tengger Desert. The carbon sink could potentially help mitigate the atmospheric greenhouse effect. Our study suggests that the carpet-like lichen E. pusillum is an excellent candidate for "Bio-carpet Engineering" of arid and semi-arid regions.

The Impact of Secondary School Students' Preconceptions on the Evolution of their Mental Models of the Greenhouse effect and Global Warming

This paper provides a video-based learning process study that investigates the kinds of mental models of the atmospheric greenhouse effect 13-year-old learners have and how these mental models change with a learning environment, which is optimised in regard to instructional psychology. The objective of this explorative study was to observe and analyse the learners' learning pathways according to their previous knowledge in detail and to understand the mental model formation processes associated with them more precisely. For the analysis of the learning pathways, drawings, texts, video and interview transcripts from 12 students were studied using qualitative methods. The learning pathways pursued by the learners significantly depend on their domain-specific previous knowledge. The learners' preconceptions could be typified based on specific characteristics, whereby three preconception types could be formed. The ‘isolated pieces of knowledge’ type of learners, who have very little or no previous knowledge about the greenhouse effect, build new mental models that are close to the target model. ‘Reduced heat output’ type of learners, who have previous knowledge that indicates compliances with central ideas of the normative model, reconstruct their knowledge by reorganising and interpreting their existing knowledge structures. ‘Increasing heat input’ type of learners, whose previous knowledge consists of subjective worldly knowledge, which has a greater personal explanatory value than the information from the learning environment, have more difficulties changing their mental models. They have to fundamentally reconstruct their mental models.

A Simulated Climatology of Spectrally Decomposed Atmospheric Infrared Radiation

Abstract A simulation experiment is conducted to inquire into the mean climate state and likely trends in atmospheric infrared radiation spectra. Upwelling and downwelling spectra at five vertical levels from the surface to the top of the atmosphere (TOA) are rigorously calculated from a climate-model-simulated atmosphere for a 25-yr period. Tracing the longwave radiation flux vertically and spectrally renders a dissection of the greenhouse effect of the earth atmosphere and its change due to climate forcings and feedbacks. The results show that the total outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) at the TOA may be conserved due to 1) compensating temperature and opacity effects and 2) contrasting temperature changes in troposphere and stratosphere. The tightly coupled tropospheric temperature and opacity effects reduce the overall tropospheric contribution to OLR change to be comparable to the overall stratospheric contribution, which suggests that transient OLR change is constrained by the relative strengths of stratospheric and tropospheric temperature changes. The total OLR energy, however, is redistributed across its spectrum. The earliest detectable global climate change signal lies in the CO2 absorption bands, which results from stratospheric cooling and the CO2 opacity effect. This signal can be detected much sooner than surface temperature change and is little affected by achievable instrument accuracy. In contrast, both tropospheric temperature and opacity effects increase downwelling longwave radiation (DLR), which makes DLR a verifiable aspect of global warming. The time it takes to detect surface DLR change roughly equals that of surface temperature change. Measuring downwelling radiances at strong water vapor lines at the tropopause can particularly help monitor stratospheric water vapor.