Abstract
The rate at which the global average surface temperature is increasing has slowed down since the end of the last century. This study investigates whether this warming hiatus results from a change in the well-known greenhouse effect. Using long-term, reliable, and consistent observational data from the Earth’s surface and the top of the atmosphere (TOA), two monthly gridded atmospheric and surface greenhouse effect parameters (Ga and Gs) are estimated to represent the radiative warming effects of the atmosphere and the surface in the infrared range from 1979 to 2014. The atmospheric and surface greenhouse effect over the tropical monsoon-prone regions is found to contribute substantially to the global total. Furthermore, the downward tendency of cloud activity leads to a greenhouse effect hiatus after the early 1990 s, prior to the warming pause. Additionally, this pause in the greenhouse effect is mostly caused by the high number of La Niña events between 1991 and 2014. A strong La Niña indicates suppressed convection in the tropical central Pacific that reduces atmospheric water vapor content and cloud volume. This significantly weakened regional greenhouse effect offsets the enhanced warming influence in other places and decelerates the rising global greenhouse effect. This work suggests that the greenhouse effect hiatus can be served as an additional factor to cause the recent global warming slowdown.
Highlights
The rate at which the global average surface temperature is increasing has slowed down since the end of the last century
Some researchers doubted the existence of a global warming hiatus because of coverage bias[3,4], artificial inconsistency[5], and a change point analysis of instrumental Ts records[6], it is accepted that a recent warming deceleration can be clearly observed[1]
Half of greenhouse effect parameter (Gs) comes from greenhouse effect parameter (Ga), and the rest comprises the solar incidence, sensible and latent heat absorbed by the atmosphere[49]
Summary
The rate at which the global average surface temperature is increasing has slowed down since the end of the last century. Harries et al.[38] found that more terrestrial heat is captured by several main GHGs (e.g., CO2, CH4, and O3) in clear skies because the spectral brightness temperatures in their absorption bands used to measure the upwelling thermal energy were significantly reduced Their experimental evidence of an enhancing greenhouse effect was largely biased because the influences of water vapor and clouds, which contribute approximately 75% of the total effect, were not included[42]. Cess and Udelhofen[43] reported a significant decreasing tendency of normalized Ga (ΔGa =Ga/SULR) for the 40°S to 40°N domain between 1985 and 1999 based on measurements of the TOA energy budget and Earth’s surface temperature They attributed this downward trend of the greenhouse effect to a notable reduction in cloud cover[43]. The monthly gridded surface greenhouse effect parameter (Gs), which is defined as the downwelling longwave radiation (F↓)at the Earth’s surface by Boer[47], is obtained using a radiative transfer model from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) Energy Balanced And Filled (EBAF) product[48]
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