Assiniboine River Research Articles

Flood rings, earlywood vessels and hydrological signal in Fraxinus pennsylvanica trees growing along the central Assiniboine river floodplain, southcentral Canada

In southcentral Canada, paleoflood reconstructions have mainly focussed on identifying flood rings in upper terrace bur oak (Quercus macrocarpa) trees from the Red and Assiniboine rivers. In contrast to upper terrace trees, floodplain tree species such as green ash (Fraxinus pennsylvanica) were said a few decades ago to provide ‘noisy’ flood proxies due to a greater flood exposition. This unverified assumption about floodplain trees was tested using green ash trees growing along the floodplain of the Assiniboine river. In each sample and for each year, flood rings were visually identified, vessels with a cross-sectional area >1000 µm2 as well as earlywood, latewood and total ring width were measured. Results indicated that flood rings were replicable and that they correspond to tree rings characterized by a high number of earlywood vessels having a reduced mean area (less porous earlywood) and, in which, radial multiples were abundant. Years in which flood rings were most abundant corresponded to documented high-magnitude floods. Flood-ring, earlywood vessel (except density and total area) and ring-width chronologies were all significantly correlated to spring mean discharge. Floodplain green ash trees do capture hydrological events including extreme floods and should thus not be ignored in paleoflood studies.

Ensemble Climate and Streamflow Projections for the Assiniboine River Basin, Canada

The Assiniboine River Basin (ARB) is subject to an exceptionally variable precipitation regime of the Canadian Prairies, ranging between record droughts and unprecedented flooding in just the past decade. To assess the impact of a changing climate on hydroclimate variability in the ARB, we used the bias–corrected simulations from the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4) to drive MESH model for two 60–year periods, a historical baseline (1951–2010) and future projection (2041–2100), under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 to simulate ARB flows at eight hydrometric stations. The precipitation is projected to increase in every season (~10–38%) except for summer (~−1–−5%). Minimum winter and maximum summer temperatures have the largest seasonal trends, increasing by 2–3 °C in the near future (2021–2050) and 5–6 °C in the far future (2051–2080). These climate changes produce higher winter river flows while peak runoff shifts by several weeks to earlier in the year. There is a shift in the magnitude and timing of extreme water levels. The ensemble of climate projections from a single model and one RCP to the variability and uncertainty in the future hydrology supports adaptation planning in the industrial sectors of Saskatchewan’s economy.

COVID-19 on the riverbank.

She curled into the mound of tattered old blankets piled high against the frozen clay banks along Winnipeg’s Assiniboine River. A skiff of snow covered the ground beneath the elm trees that stood sentinel over this liminal ribbon of land between the river and the rest of the city. This was

Basin-scale and seasonal evaluation of automated threshold methods for surface water detection

ABSTRACT Estimating surface water using satellite data can improve estimates and predictions for hydroelectric energy generation. The goal of this research is to identify the best threshold method and image band combination to detect seasonal surface water at the basin scale. This paper explores Otsu, Minimum Entropy, and average of Otsu-Minimum Entropy threshold algorithms using Sentinel-2 narrow near-infrared band 8A (N-NIR), shortwave infrared bands 11 and 12 (SWIR-11 or SWIR-12) images for the Assiniboine River Basin (ARB). The highest precision (0.87) of surface water detection was obtained in autumn using Minimum Entropy (N-NIR & SWIR-11) threshold values for the ARB, however, the Minimum Entropy also had poor detection of surface water (low recall). Use of the naïve Bayesian classifier did not improve detection of surface water compared to using threshold values alone, and the use of threshold values generated for one basin was not transferable to another basin. We concluded that threshold methods should be assessed seasonally, at a per-tile scale before combining surface water products at a watershed scale, and products should be evaluated using non-balanced statistical measures for watersheds with high land-to-water ratios. Accuracy assessment is hampered by validation data which represents static hydrologic conditions, not contemporary, seasonal conditions.

Measured pipe stresses on gas pipelines in landslide areas

Landslides are a risk to buried gas pipeline infrastructure, but these risks are particularly difficult to assess given the complex nature of landslide movements. This paper presents of portion of research conducted at the University of Manitoba where gas pipelines within active landslide areas were monitored over a 4 year period. Two locations were examined in western Manitoba within the Assiniboine River Valley where a shallow natural gas pipeline runs parallel to the valley slope. A field investigation and monitoring program was undertaken where surficial ground movements and soil and pipe temperatures and pipe strains through strain gauges were measured. Monitoring results identified soil near the pipeline does not freeze, and ground movements are <50 mm/year. The monitoring results also showed pipe stresses and behaviour were affected by backfilling, thermal changes, soil−pipe relaxation, and ground movements. An unexpected outcome of the research was the response of the pipeline to slight ground movements was easily captured by the strain gauges and these movements, slow or surges, tended to occur at the same time between the two sites suggesting movements occur due to regional environmental effects.

Groundwater contributions to surface water in the Assiniboine Delta Aquifer (ADA): A water quantity and quality perspective

In the Lake Winnipeg Basin (LWB), at both basin and regional scales, there are currently gaps regarding the significance of groundwater as a mediator of nutrient and contaminant fluxes to Lake Winnipeg. During 2018, surface water and groundwater samples were collected from various locations across the largest sand and gravel aquifer (Assiniboine Delta Aquifer [ADA]; 3800 km2) in the LWB as well as from surface water courses flowing above this aquifer. The samples collected during spring and fall were analyzed for anions and cations as well as for a series of isotopic and geochemical tracers (e.g. water isotopes, carbon 14, artificial sweeteners, pesticides, etc.). The results reveal that groundwater and the small watercourses flowing above the ADA have a similar chemical composition, which is in contrast with the chemical composition of the main watercourse flowing above the aquifer (Assiniboine River [AR]). When corroborated with stream discharge measurements this indicates that groundwater plays a significant role at local scale in controlling both the flow and the chemical composition of the AR tributaries. Nitrate showed low to non-detectable concentrations in both groundwater and surface water. With respect to groundwater, this could be related to the reducing conditions in the deeper aquifer in conjunction with relatively large groundwater travel times of up to 2400 years.

Application of dynamic contributing area for modelling the hydrologic response of the Assiniboine River Basin to a changing climate

The Prairie landscape consists of numerous pothole depressions which produce complex fill-and-spill runoff generation processes that result in intermittent hydrologic connectivity and dynamic contributing areas (DCA). We investigated the effect of including DCA in the modified version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and its implication on future streamflow projection for the pothole dominated Assiniboine River Basin (ARB). The fill-and-spill processes that lead to DCA were captured using a physically-based approach, with a volumetric threshold to reduce the computational demand. Despite the challenges in accurately simulating prairie pothole hydrology, both in terms of timing and volume of runoff, the modified approach improved streamflow modelling performance, and reduced model uncertainty. Further, we evaluated the effects of representing DCA on projecting future streamflow by using eight statistically downscaled CMIP5 GCMs, forced with the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. End of century projections indicate increases in annual precipitation and temperature across the ARB, with decreasing summer precipitation relative to the 1976–2005 baseline period. Compared to the standard SWAT setup that does not allow for DCA, the modified model was found to be more responsive to climatic change with relatively larger projected increases in seasonal and annual flows at the majority of evaluated stations. This advance in DCA modelling will facilitate longer-term large basin-scale simulations that are more representative for the Prairie region.

Absence of genetic structure reflects post-glacial history and present-day host use in Mapleleaf (Quadrula quadrula) mussel from Manitoba, Canada

Our study documents and analyzes the absence of genetic diversity and structure of the Mapleleaf (Quadrula quadrula (Rafinesque, 1820)) (Bivalvia: Unionidae) mussel in the Lake Winnipeg, Assiniboine River, and Red River drainages (Manitoba, Canada). Previous studies have revealed patterns of genetic diversity and structure in the Mississippi and Ohio river drainages, as well as in the Laurentian Great Lakes drainage. Genotypes from six variable microsatellite loci showed that the Q. quadrula population in Manitoba was significantly differentiated from the population in the Great Lakes drainage (Ontario, Canada), supporting the existence of two Designatable Units in Canada. Conversely, there was no evidence of genetic structure within the sampled range of Q. quadrula in Manitoba. The lack of genetic structure in Q. quadrula across its distribution in Manitoba reflected its post-glacial history and use of a vagile host and necessitates that efforts should be made to ensure connectivity and maintain gene flow across the region. Given that the evidence suggests that Manitoba Q. quadrula belong to a single genetic population, movement of hatchery-propagated juvenile Q. quadrula, adult Q. quadrula, or glochidia-carrying host catfish sourced from any location in Manitoba could be used to augment declining populations or at-risk locations in Manitoba.

Signature-based multi-modelling and multi-objective calibration of hydrologic models: Application in flood forecasting for Canadian Prairies

Multi-modelling aims to make use of the strengths of single hydrologic models to improve the accuracy of simulating the watershed system behavior. Considering hydrological signatures such as the flow duration curve segmentation in the calibration of each hydrologic model leads to a better parameter identifiability. In this study, a novel weighted average model-wrapper based on flow duration curve segmentation is introduced to aggregate the calibrated models into a multi-model. The proposed framework is applied to develop a model-wrapper of the Upper Assiniboine River Basin for flood forecasting upstream of the Shellmouth reservoir in the Prairie region of Canada. The HEC-HMS, HBV-EC, HSPF, and WATFLOOD hydrologic models that are being used at the Hydrologic Forecast Centre of Manitoba Infrastructure for operational inflow forecasting are calibrated using signature-based multi-objective optimization. These models have significantly different structural complexities. The calibration of each of these models is set up as three simulation-optimization problems with different objective functions to balance the model capability in simulating multiple important hydrological signatures. Results show that the model-wrapper outperforms each of the single calibrated models that are of operational use at Manitoba Infrastructure, e.g. NSE improved from 0.44 for the best individual model to 0.76 for the model-wrapper in the calibration period. Moreover, the weights associated with each hydrologic model component indicate the contribution rate of the individual models to the model-wrapper in high-flow, mid-flow, and low-flow portions of streamflow time series. Quantifying the contribution of each model component provides a deeper insight into model selection strategy, especially when a component has minimal or no contribution, e.g. HEC-HMS and HBV-EC in this paper, to the model-wrapper performance in all ranges of streamflow simulation compared to other model components.

Evaluation of Snowmelt Estimation Techniques for Enhanced Spring Peak Flow Prediction

Water resources management and planning requires accurate and reliable spring flood forecasts. In cold and snowy countries, particularly in snow-dominated watersheds, enhanced flood prediction requires adequate snowmelt estimation techniques. Whereas the majority of the studies on snow modeling have focused on comparing the performance of empirical techniques and physically based methods, very few studies have investigated empirical models and conceptual models for improving spring peak flow prediction. The objective of this study is to investigate the potential of empirical degree-day method (DDM) to effectively and accurately predict peak flows compared to sophisticated and conceptual SNOW-17 model at two watersheds in Canada: the La-Grande River Basin (LGRB) and the Upper Assiniboine river at Shellmouth Reservoir (UASR). Additional insightful contributions include the evaluation of a seasonal model calibration approach, an annual model calibration method, and two hydrological models: McMaster University Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning (MAC-HBV) and Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting model (SAC-SMA). A total of eight model scenarios were considered for each watershed. Results indicate that DDM was very competitive with SNOW-17 at both the study sites, whereas it showed significant improvement in prediction accuracy at UASR. Moreover, the seasonally calibrated model appears to be an effective alternative to an annual model calibration approach, while the SAC-SMA model outperformed the MAC-HBV model, no matter which snowmelt computation method, calibration approach, or study basin is used. Conclusively, the DDM and seasonal model calibration approach coupled with the SAC-SMA hydrologic model appears to be a robust model combination for spring peak flow estimation.

Quantification of Border Ice Growth on the Assiniboine River

AbstractIce formation processes have been monitored on the Assiniboine River, Manitoba, by establishing an extensive network of hydrometric equipment and trail cameras. Although much of the study a...

Landscape Controls on Nutrient Export during Snowmelt and an Extreme Rainfall Runoff Event in Northern Agricultural Watersheds.

In the northern Great Plains, most runoff transport of N, and P to surface waters has historically occurred with snowmelt. In recent years, significant rainfall runoff events have become more frequent and intense in the region. Here, we examine the influence of landscape characteristics on hydrology and nutrient export in nine tributary watersheds of the Assiniboine River in Manitoba, Canada, during snowmelt runoff and with an early summer extreme rainfall runoff event (ERRE). All watersheds included in the study have land use that is primarily agricultural, but with differing proportions of land remaining as wetlands, grassland, and that has been artificially drained. Those watersheds with greater capacity for storage of water in surface depressions (noneffective contributing areas) exhibited lower rates of runoff and nutrient export with snowmelt. During the ERRE, higher export of total P (TP), but not total N, was observed from those watersheds with larger amounts of contributing area that had been added through artificial surface drainage, and this was associated primarily with higher TP concentrations. Increasing or restoring the storage of water on the landscape is likely to reduce nutrient export; however, the importance of antecedent conditions was evident during the ERRE, when small surface depressions were at or near capacity from snowmelt. Total P concentrations observed during the summer ERRE were as high as those observed with snowmelt, and N/P ratios were significantly lower. If the frequency of summer ERREs increases with climate change, this is likely to result in negative water quality outcomes.

Analysing Habitat Connectivity and Home Ranges of Bigmouth Buffalo and Channel Catfish Using a Large-Scale Acoustic Receiver Network

The determination if fish movement of potadromous species is impeded in a river system is often difficult, particularly when timing and extent of movements are unknown. Furthermore, evaluating river connectivity poses additional challenges. Here, we used large-scale, long-term fish movement to study and identify anthropogenic barriers to movements in the Lake Winnipeg basin including the Red, Winnipeg, and Assiniboine rivers. In the frame of the project, 80 Bigmouth Buffalo (Ictiobus cyprinellus) and 161 Channel Catfish (Ictalurus punctatus) were tagged with acoustic transmitters. Individual fish were detected with an acoustic telemetry network. Movements were subsequently analyzed using a continuous-time Markov model (CTMM). The study demonstrated large home ranges in the Lake Winnipeg basin and evidence of frequent transborder movements between Canada and the United States. The study also highlighted successful downstream fish passage at some barriers, whereas some barriers limited or completely blocked upstream movement. This biological knowledge on fish movements in the Lake Winnipeg basin highlights the need for fish passage solutions at different obstructions.

Evaluation of variability among different precipitation products in the Northern Great Plains

Study regionThe Northern Great Plains. Study focusSeasonal and extreme hydro-climatological events in the Northern Great Plains can have significant socio-economic impacts. Although a variety of precipitation datasets can be used for characterizing the hydro-climatological behavior of this region, much of our knowledge on precipitation variability among different products over this region comes from the coarse-scale evaluation studies for the whole Canada or CONUS, many of which may under-represent the performance of different precipitation products over these areas. The present study is intended to fill this gap. Daily total precipitation data derived from CaPA, ERA-Interim, ERA5, JRA-55, MERRA-2 and NLDAS-2, respectively, are evaluated over the Assiniboine River Basin (ARB), which represents many of the hydro-climatological complexities associated with the Northern Great Plains. Additionally, the spatial and year-to-year variations in total liquid water flux for spring and early summer are also examined over the ARB. New hydrological insights for the regionPrecipitation products typically perform better in spring and autumn than in summer and winter. Overall, CaPA performs best, except for a severe underestimation of summer precipitation. MERRA-2 is typically the second best. ERA5 typically outperforms ERA-Interim. NLDAS-2 has a fairly low performance. JRA-55 has the lowest performance, exhibiting a strong wet bias. The quantified variability among these products will help characterize sources of uncertainty for hydro-climatological analysis within the Northern Great Plains.

Presidential Address. Starting with Water: Canada, Colonialism, and History at 2019

How does history look when we begin with water? Here, I want to address the possibilities of thinking about water, particularly through the its relationship to colonialism, and especially in the watery, geographical centre of North America that we might call the western edge of the Annishinaabeg world, and we also might call the space between modern Winnipeg and the Lake of the Woods. To discuss histories of water here, I will draw on Indigenous Studies, critical colonial history, histories of the environment, and urban space, and the questions prompted by the present of 2019, sitting as it does in the wake of the completion of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC) in 2015, and the commemoration of the sesquicentennial of the British North America Act (BNA) in 2017. As the Canadian Historical Association/Société Historique du Canada (CHA/SHC) approaches its 100th anniversary in 2022, and as we think and act around the role of scholarly disciplines, including history, in the institutional, social, and intellectual scaffolding of the ongoing project of Canadian colonialism. These are some of the questions that water can lead us to. I will begin by talking about water, history, and settler colonialism, and then turn to histories of water at the meeting of the Red and Assiniboine rivers, and to histories of dispossession in the Lake of the Woods watershed before returning to our colonial present, and the role of histories and historians in that present.

Assessing Land Loss from Flooding in the Lake St. Martin Basin in Manitoba, Canada

Floodwaters from the Assiniboine River are typically diverted to Lake Manitoba and then Lake St. Martin to save the City of Winnipeg and Portage la Prairie from flooding. The four Indigenous communities living Lake St. Martin basin experienced many negative impacts, including long-term displacement after the 2011 flood. Data analysis of historical water levels of Lake Manitoba and Lake St. Martin were conducted to understand the impact of control structures and water levels. Satellite imagery allowed geographic information system (GIS) raster analysis of the shoreline change of Lake St. Martin before and after the 2011 super flood. From 1986 to 2010, the Lake St. Martin area increased slightly by approximately 0.63% but in 2011 the lake area increased by 13%. 11,000 acres were lost mainly around Lake St. Martin First Nation (LSMFN) reserve and the Little Saskatchewan First Nation, as a result and many houses and other buildings (churches, band offices, etc.) flooded in these communities. The shoreline change analysis showed that, in particular, the west and north shoreline of Lake St. Martin lost its beaches and lakefront properties, to become swampland after the 2011 flood. Thousands of Indigenous people were displaced for eight years, as the community could only start to rebuild its infrastructure and houses on higher ground after a government settlement was reached.

Impact of model structure on the accuracy of hydrological modeling of a Canadian Prairie watershed

Study regionPrairie Pothole Region of Canada. Study focusThe Prairie region spans across approximately 870,000 km2 of the Great Plains region of Canada (80%) and the United States (20%). The presence of a large number of depressional wetlands (potholes) results in dynamic surface-water and stream connectivity during wet and dry year necessitating an improved understanding of watershed-scale interactions of the Prairie Potholes. The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model with three structural variants is utilized to assess the degree of accuracy associated with increasing model complexity and its impact on the model calibration of the Upper Assiniboine River Basin at Kamsack. New hydrologic insight for the regionThe SWAT model was calibrated and verified with three different structural arrangements in 1) lumped pothole, 2) semi discretized pothole, 3) and fully discretized pothole representation. The fully discretized pothole version of the SWAT reflected streamflow best (KGE of 0.78) but with greater uncertainty, larger data and computational resource requirements. The fully discretized (modified) model, however, was able to capture the high flow and the fill-and-spill processes, which is a defining characteristic of the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR). Significant improvements to the predictive ability of SWAT in the case of the modified model was observed, thus allowing an enhanced understanding of the aggregate effect of potholes in this watershed.

The missing dead: The lost role of animal remains in nutrient cycling in North American Rivers

While leaf litter, wood, and other plant remnants are known to play a central role in lotic ecosystems, animal remains (carcasses, bones, shells) have received less attention. We propose a simple classification scheme for animal remains in rivers based on origin (authochthonous vs. allochthonous) and frequency (pulsed vs continuous). We then present case studies in which we estimate the former biomass of several taxonomic groups that are now diminished in abundance to determine whether their remains could have historically constituted a significant flux of nutrients in rivers of North America. We focus on bones and shells, which decompose slowly and could provide long-term reservoirs of nutrients. We find that carcasses of alligator snapping turtles, once abundant in southeastern rivers, could have provided an amount of phosphorus equivalent to about 1% of total phosphorus (TP) load at median flow, and more at low flows. Mussel shells could have contributed a similar amount (0.8% of TP) but the contribution of beaver carcasses, even at former abundances, was likely small. In contrast, a single documented mass drowning of bison in the Assiniboine River could have contributed half the annual TP load for that river. Such drownings could have been a common occurrence prior to the loss of most wild terrestrial megafauna in North America. We conclude that animal remnants, particularly allochthonous remains from terrestrial animals, formerly played a substantial role in nutrient cycling. Existing models of ecosystem function under reference conditions are incomplete without consideration of these lost animal legacies.

Assessing the Importance of Potholes in the Canadian Prairie Region under Future Climate Change Scenarios

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of Canada contains millions of small isolated wetlands and is unique to North America. The goods and services of these isolated wetlands are highly sensitive to variations in precipitation and temperature. We evaluated the flood proofing of isolated wetlands (pothole wetlands) under various climate change scenarios in the Upper Assiniboine River Basin (UARB) at Kamsack, a headwater catchment of the Lake of the Prairies in the Canadian portion of the PPR. A modified version of the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was utilized to simulate projected streamflow under the potential impacts of climate change, along with changes to the distribution of pothole wetlands. Significant increases in winter streamflow (~200%) and decreases (~11%) in summer flow, driven by changes in future climates, were simulated. Simulated changes in streamflow resulting from pothole removal were between 55% for winter and 15% for summer, suggesting that climate will be the primary driver in the future hydrologic regime of the study region. This research serves as an important guide to the various stakeholder organizations involved in quantifying the aggregate impacts of pothole wetlands in the hydrology of the Canadian Prairie Region.

Multi-Model Approaches for Improving Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Scheme with Various Statistical Post-Processing Techniques in the Canadian Prairie Region

Hydrologic models are an approximation of reality, and thus, are not able to perfectly simulate observed streamflow because of various sources of uncertainty. On the other hand, skillful operational hydrologic forecasts are vital in water resources engineering and management for preparedness against flooding and extreme events. Multi-model techniques can be used to help represent and quantify various uncertainties in forecasting. In this paper, we assess the performance of a Multi-model Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (MSESP) scheme coupled with statistical post-processing techniques to issue operational uncertainty for the Manitoba Hydrologic Forecasting Centre (HFC). The Ensemble Streamflow Predictions (ESPs) from WATFLOOD and SWAT hydrologic models were used along with four statistical post-processing techniques: Linear Regression (LR), Quantile Mapping (QM), Quantile Model Averaging (QMA), and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA)]. The quality of MSESP was investigated from April to July with a lead time of three months for the Upper Assiniboine River Basin (UARB) at Kamsack, Canada. While multi-model ESPs coupled with post-processing techniques improve predictability (in general), results suggest that additional avenues for improving the skill and value of seasonal streamflow prediction. Next steps towards an operational ESP system include adding more operationally used models, improving models calibration methods to reduce model bias, increasing ESP sample size, and testing ESP schemes at multiple lead times, which, once developed, will not only help HFCs in Canada but would also help Centers South of the Border.