Ensemble Climate and Streamflow Projections for the Assiniboine River Basin, Canada

Abstract

The Assiniboine River Basin (ARB) is subject to an exceptionally variable precipitation regime of the Canadian Prairies, ranging between record droughts and unprecedented flooding in just the past decade. To assess the impact of a changing climate on hydroclimate variability in the ARB, we used the bias–corrected simulations from the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4) to drive MESH model for two 60–year periods, a historical baseline (1951–2010) and future projection (2041–2100), under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 to simulate ARB flows at eight hydrometric stations. The precipitation is projected to increase in every season (~10–38%) except for summer (~−1–−5%). Minimum winter and maximum summer temperatures have the largest seasonal trends, increasing by 2–3 °C in the near future (2021–2050) and 5–6 °C in the far future (2051–2080). These climate changes produce higher winter river flows while peak runoff shifts by several weeks to earlier in the year. There is a shift in the magnitude and timing of extreme water levels. The ensemble of climate projections from a single model and one RCP to the variability and uncertainty in the future hydrology supports adaptation planning in the industrial sectors of Saskatchewan’s economy.