Signature-based multi-modelling and multi-objective calibration of hydrologic models: Application in flood forecasting for Canadian Prairies

Abstract

Multi-modelling aims to make use of the strengths of single hydrologic models to improve the accuracy of simulating the watershed system behavior. Considering hydrological signatures such as the flow duration curve segmentation in the calibration of each hydrologic model leads to a better parameter identifiability. In this study, a novel weighted average model-wrapper based on flow duration curve segmentation is introduced to aggregate the calibrated models into a multi-model. The proposed framework is applied to develop a model-wrapper of the Upper Assiniboine River Basin for flood forecasting upstream of the Shellmouth reservoir in the Prairie region of Canada. The HEC-HMS, HBV-EC, HSPF, and WATFLOOD hydrologic models that are being used at the Hydrologic Forecast Centre of Manitoba Infrastructure for operational inflow forecasting are calibrated using signature-based multi-objective optimization. These models have significantly different structural complexities. The calibration of each of these models is set up as three simulation-optimization problems with different objective functions to balance the model capability in simulating multiple important hydrological signatures. Results show that the model-wrapper outperforms each of the single calibrated models that are of operational use at Manitoba Infrastructure, e.g. NSE improved from 0.44 for the best individual model to 0.76 for the model-wrapper in the calibration period. Moreover, the weights associated with each hydrologic model component indicate the contribution rate of the individual models to the model-wrapper in high-flow, mid-flow, and low-flow portions of streamflow time series. Quantifying the contribution of each model component provides a deeper insight into model selection strategy, especially when a component has minimal or no contribution, e.g. HEC-HMS and HBV-EC in this paper, to the model-wrapper performance in all ranges of streamflow simulation compared to other model components.