Assessing the Importance of Potholes in the Canadian Prairie Region under Future Climate Change Scenarios

Ameer Muhammad,Paulin Coulibaly,Tricia Stadnyk,Alaba Boluwade,Grey Evenson,Sanjeev Jha

doi:10.3390/w10111657

Abstract

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of Canada contains millions of small isolated wetlands and is unique to North America. The goods and services of these isolated wetlands are highly sensitive to variations in precipitation and temperature. We evaluated the flood proofing of isolated wetlands (pothole wetlands) under various climate change scenarios in the Upper Assiniboine River Basin (UARB) at Kamsack, a headwater catchment of the Lake of the Prairies in the Canadian portion of the PPR. A modified version of the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was utilized to simulate projected streamflow under the potential impacts of climate change, along with changes to the distribution of pothole wetlands. Significant increases in winter streamflow (~200%) and decreases (~11%) in summer flow, driven by changes in future climates, were simulated. Simulated changes in streamflow resulting from pothole removal were between 55% for winter and 15% for summer, suggesting that climate will be the primary driver in the future hydrologic regime of the study region. This research serves as an important guide to the various stakeholder organizations involved in quantifying the aggregate impacts of pothole wetlands in the hydrology of the Canadian Prairie Region.

Highlights

The North American Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) spans across Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba in Canada and extends into North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa, Minnesota, and Montana in the United States (US) (Figure 1)
The basin is of vital importance, as flow generated in the basin enters the Lake of the Prairies, which was constructed for flood mitigation purposes and is situated approximately 45 km downstream of the watershed outlet
Key parameters that govern hydrologic processes of the study watershed were selected based on available literature [34,35,57,58,60,61,62,91,92,93]

Summary

Introduction

The North American Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) spans across Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba in Canada and extends into North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa, Minnesota, and Montana in the United States (US) (Figure 1). The PPR is home to millions of isolated wetlands (i.e., pothole wetlands) that provide a range of ecosystem goods and services such as flood attenuation, groundwater recharge, biogeochemical processing, and regional diversity [1,2,3,4,5,6]. Nearly 70% of the wetlands have been lost in the PPR, with 84% of this loss attributed to agricultural development [6,7]. Region of North of AmericaNorth America (PPR).

Methods

Results

Conclusion