Abstract
The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is known for its hydrologically complex landscape with a large number of pothole wetlands. However, most watershed-scale hydrologic models that are applied in this region are incapable of representing the dynamic nature of contributing area and fill-spill processes affected by pothole wetlands. The inability to simulate these processes represents a critical limitation for operators and flood forecasters and may hinder the management of large reservoirs. We used a modified version of the soil water assessment tool (SWAT) model capable of simulating the dynamics of variable contributing areas and fill-spill processes to assess the impact of climate change on upstream inflows into the Shellmouth reservoir (also called Lake of the Prairie), which is an important reservoir built to provide multiple purposes, including flood and drought mitigation. We calibrated our modified SWAT model at a daily time step using SUFI-2 algorithm within SWAT-CUP for the period 1991–2000 and validated for 2005–2014, which gave acceptable performance statistics for both the calibration (KGE = 0.70, PBIAS = −13.5) and validation (KGE = 0.70, PBIAS = 21.5) periods. We then forced the calibrated model with future climate projections using representative concentration pathways (RCPs; 4.5, 8.5) for the near (2011–2040) and middle futures (2041–2070) of multiple regional climate models (RCMs). Our modeling results suggest that climate change will lead to a two-fold increase in winter streamflow, a slight increase in summer flow, and decrease spring peak flows into the Shellmouth reservoir. Investigating the impact of climate change on the operation of the Shellmouth reservoir is critically important because climate change could present significant challenges to the operation and management of the reservoir.
Highlights
Climate change is predicted to significantly impact the availability of water resources around the world [1]
It should be noted that our goal was to more accurately predict inflows to the reservoir impacted by the prairie pothole landscape and climate change, but not to utilize soil water assessment tool (SWAT) to project the outflows
It is very likely that extreme precipitation events will become more intense and frequent, altering the hydrologic cycle and water availability of the region
Summary
Climate change is predicted to significantly impact the availability of water resources around the world [1]. Scientific consensus is that increasing temperature will alter both the quantity and timing of regional precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture, which will in-turn affect hydrologic flows into lakes and streams [2,3,4,5]. Climate change is predicted to increase precipitation intensity, which could lead to higher rates of surface runoff causing an increased risk of floods. Increasing temperature will enhance evapotranspiration rate, which may increase the demand for water availability during the peak growing season [3,6]. In order to better tackle these future water resource management issues, the impact of climate change on components of the water balance must be quantified from regional to local scales [8]
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
