Arctic Ocean Research Articles

Insights on long-term ecosystem changes from stable isotopes in historical squid beaks

BackgroundAssessing the historical dynamics of key food web components is crucial to understand how climate change impacts the structure of Arctic marine ecosystems. Most retrospective stable isotopic studies to date assessed potential ecosystem shifts in the Arctic using vertebrate top predators and filter-feeding invertebrates as proxies. However, due to long life histories and specific ecologies, ecosystem shifts are not always detectable when using these taxa. Moreover, there are currently no retrospective stable isotopic studies on various other ecological and taxonomic groups of Arctic biota. To test whether climate-driven shifts in marine ecosystems are reflected in the ecology of short-living mesopredators, ontogenetic changes in stable isotope signatures in chitinous hard body structures were analysed in two abundant squids (Gonatus fabricii and Todarodes sagittatus) from the low latitude Arctic and adjacent waters, collected between 1844 and 2023.ResultsWe detected a temporal increase in diet and habitat-use generalism (= opportunistic choice rather than specialization), trophic position and niche width in G. fabricii from the low latitude Arctic waters. These shifts in trophic ecology matched with the Atlantification of the Arctic ecosystems, which includes increased generalization of food webs and higher primary production, and the influx of boreal species from the North Atlantic as a result of climate change. The Atlantification is especially marked since the late 1990s/early 2000s. The temporal patterns we found in G. fabricii’s trophic ecology were largely unreported in previous Arctic retrospective isotopic ecology studies. Accordingly, T. sagittatus that occur nowadays in the high latitude North Atlantic have a more generalist diet than in the XIXth century.ConclusionsOur results suggest that abundant opportunistic mesopredators with short life cycles (such as squids) are good candidates for retrospective ecology studies in the marine ecosystems, and to identify ecosystem shifts driven by climate change. Enhanced generalization of Arctic food webs is reflected in increased diet generalism and niche width in squids, while increased abundance of boreal piscivorous fishes is reflected in squids’ increased trophic position. These findings support opportunism and adaptability in squids, which renders them as potential winners of short-term shifts in Arctic ecosystems.

Suitability of the CICE sea ice model for seasonal prediction and positive impact of CryoSat-2 ice thickness initialization

Abstract. The Los Alamos Community Ice CodE (CICE) sea ice model is being tested in standalone mode to identify biases that limit its suitability for seasonal prediction, where it is driven by atmospheric forcings from the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and a built-in mixed-layer ocean model in CICE. The initial conditions for the sea ice and mixed-layer ocean are also from CFSR in the control experiments. The simulated sea ice extent agrees well with observations during the warm season at all lead times up to 12 months, in both the Arctic and the Antarctic. This suggests that CICE is able to provide useful sea ice edge information for seasonal prediction. However, the model's initial conditions have ice that is too thick in the Beaufort Sea, resulting in excessive ice extent in the Arctic at 6-month lead forecasts and errors in ice volume at all lead times when compared to available observations. To address this limitation, additional CS2_IC experiments were conducted, where the Arctic ice thickness was initialized using CryoSat-2 satellite observations while keeping all other initial fields the same as in the control experiments. This reduced the positive bias in the ice thickness in the initial conditions, leading to improvements in both the simulated ice edge and the ice thickness at the seasonal timescale. This indicates that CICE has the potential to improve its seasonal forecast skill and provide more accurate predictions of sea ice extent and thickness when initialized with a more realistic sea ice thickness. This study highlights that the suitability of CICE for seasonal prediction depends on various factors, including initial conditions such as sea ice thickness, in addition to sea ice coverage, as well as oceanic and atmospheric conditions.

Dietary plasticity and broad North Atlantic origins inferred from bulk and amino acid-specific δ15N and δ13C favour killer whale range expansions into Arctic waters.

Killer whales (Orcinus orca) occur seasonally in the eastern Canadian Arctic (ECA), where their range expansion associated with declining sea ice have raised questions about the impacts of increasing killer whale predation pressure on Arctic-endemic prey. We assessed diet and distribution of ECA killer whales using bulk and compound-specific stable isotope analysis (CSIA) of amino acids (AA) of 54 skin biopsies collected from 2009 to 2020 around Baffin Island, Canada. Bulk ECA killer whale skin δ15N and δ13C values did not overlap with potential Arctic prey after adjustment for trophic discrimination, and instead reflected foraging history in the North Atlantic prior to their arrival in the ECA. Adjusted killer whale stable isotope (SI) values primarily overlapped with several species of North Atlantic baleen whales or tuna. Amino acid (AA)-specific δ15N values indicated the ECA killer whales fed primarily on marine mammals, having similar glutamic acid δ15N-phenylalanine δ15N (δ15NGlx-Phe) and threonine δ15N (δ15NThr) as mammal-eating killer whales from the eastern North Pacific (ENP) that served as a comparative framework. However, one ECA whale grouped with the fish-eating ENP ecotype based δ15NThr. Distinctive essential AA δ13C of ECA killer whale groups, along with bulk SI similarity to killer whales from different regions of the North Atlantic, indicates different populations converge in Arctic waters from a broad source area. Generalist diet and long-distance dispersal capacity favour range expansions, and integration of these insights will be critical for assessing ecological impacts of increasing killer whale predation pressure on Arctic-endemic species.

Quantifying Drivers of Seasonal and Interannual Variability of Dissolved Oxygen in the Canada Basin Mixed Layer

AbstractAnalysis of dissolved oxygen (O2) in the Arctic's surface ocean provides insights into gas transfer between the atmosphere‐ice‐ocean system, water mass dynamics, and biogeochemical processes. In the Arctic Ocean's Canada Basin mixed layer, higher O2 concentrations are generally observed under sea ice compared to open water regions. Annual cycles of O2 and O2 saturation, increasing from summer through spring and then sharply declining to late summer, are tightly linked to sea ice cover. The primary fluxes that influence seasonal variability of O2 are modeled and compared to Ice‐Tethered Profiler O2 observations to understand the relative role of each flux in the annual cycle. Findings suggest that sea ice melt/growth dominates seasonal variations in mixed layer O2, with minor contributions from vertical entrainment and atmospheric exchange. While the influence of biological activity on O2 variability cannot be directly assessed, indirect evidence suggests relatively minor contributions, although with significant uncertainty. Past studies show that O2 molecules are expelled from sea ice during brine rejection; sea ice cover can then inhibit air‐sea gas exchange resulting in winter mixed layers that are super‐saturated. Decreasing mixed layer O2 concentrations and saturation levels are observed during winter months between 2007 and 2019 in the Canada Basin. Only a minor portion of the decreasing trend in wintertime O2 can be attributed to decreased solubility. This suggests the O2 decline may be linked to more efficient air‐sea exchange associated with increased open water areas in the winter sea ice pack that are not necessarily detectable via satellite observations.

Tracing Ocean Circulation and Mixing From the Arctic to the Subpolar North Atlantic Using the 129I–236U Dual Tracer

AbstractThis study represents the first use of the artificial radionuclides 129I and 236U, released into the ocean mainly from Nuclear Reprocessing Plants, as a dual tracer in the vicinity of Iceland with novel estimation of ocean circulatory pathways and mixing in the region. Iceland lies at the gateway to the Arctic where warm, saline Atlantic waters interact with waters of Arctic origin in ways that have critical consequences for the strength and stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Many of these interactions are not yet fully understood, such as how Atlantic water circulates around the Arctic Ocean and Nordic Seas and the composition and fate of the major overflows of the Greenland‐Scotland Ridge. Using new and previous measurements of 129I and 236U in seawater, we present a new method of appraising water mass provenance and mixing in the form of the 129I–236U dual mixing plot. With this method, we estimate that at least half the Atlantic‐origin water entering the Arctic Ocean circulates around the Canada Basin before exiting at Fram Strait and that this outflow is increased by about 40% by mixing with Return Atlantic Water “short‐circuiting” the Arctic Ocean at Fram Strait. We present tracer‐based evidence that water carried by the East Greenland Current has an unbroken pathway to the Faroe‐Shetland Channel and that Iceland‐Scotland Overflow Water (ISOW) entrains 60% Labrador Sea Water during transit past southeast Iceland. We present an unambiguous way to differentiate ISOW from DSOW after they partially merge in the Irminger Sea.

Predicting September Arctic Sea Ice: A Multimodel Seasonal Skill Comparison

Abstract This study quantifies the state of the art in the rapidly growing field of seasonal Arctic sea ice prediction. A novel multimodel dataset of retrospective seasonal predictions of September Arctic sea ice is created and analyzed, consisting of community contributions from 17 statistical models and 17 dynamical models. Prediction skill is compared over the period 2001–20 for predictions of pan-Arctic sea ice extent (SIE), regional SIE, and local sea ice concentration (SIC) initialized on 1 June, 1 July, 1 August, and 1 September. This diverse set of statistical and dynamical models can individually predict linearly detrended pan-Arctic SIE anomalies with skill, and a multimodel median prediction has correlation coefficients of 0.79, 0.86, 0.92, and 0.99 at these respective initialization times. Regional SIE predictions have similar skill to pan-Arctic predictions in the Alaskan and Siberian regions, whereas regional skill is lower in the Canadian, Atlantic, and central Arctic sectors. The skill of dynamical and statistical models is generally comparable for pan-Arctic SIE, whereas dynamical models outperform their statistical counterparts for regional and local predictions. The prediction systems are found to provide the most value added relative to basic reference forecasts in the extreme SIE years of 1996, 2007, and 2012. SIE prediction errors do not show clear trends over time, suggesting that there has been minimal change in inherent sea ice predictability over the satellite era. Overall, this study demonstrates that there are bright prospects for skillful operational predictions of September sea ice at least 3 months in advance.

Reconciling Roles of External Forcing and Internal Variability in Arctic Sea Ice Change on Different Time Scales

Abstract Two large ensemble simulations are adopted to investigate the relative contribution of external forcing and internal variability to Arctic sea ice variability on different time scales since 1960 by correcting the response error of models to external forcing using observational datasets. Our study suggests that previous approaches might overestimate the real impact of internal variability on Arctic sea ice change especially on long time scales. Our results indicate that in both March and September, internal variability plays a dominant role on all time scales over the twentieth century, while the anthropogenic signal on sea ice change can be steadily and consistently detected on a time scale of more than 20 years after the 2000s. We also reveal that the dominant mode of internal variability in March shows consistency across different time scales. On the contrary, the pattern of internal variability in September is highly nonuniform over the Arctic and varies across different time scales, indicating that sea ice internal variability in September at different time scales is driven by different factors.

Reconstruction of Arctic Sea Ice Thickness and Its Impact on Sea Ice Forecasting in the Melting Season

Abstract Generally, sea ice prediction skills can be improved by assimilating available observations of the sea ice concentration (SIC) and sea ice thickness (SIT) into a numerical forecast model to update the initial conditions. However, due to inadequate daily SIT satellite observations in the Arctic melting season, the SIC fields in forecast models are usually directly updated, which causes mismatch of SIC and SIT in dynamics and affects the model prediction accuracy. In this study, a statistically based bivariate regression model of SIT (BRMT) is tentatively established based on the grid reanalysis data of SIC and SIT to reconstruct daily Arctic SIT data. The results show that the BRMT can reproduce the spatial and temporal changes in the SIT in the melting season and capture the variation trend of SIT in some periods. Compared with the SIT observations from buoy and satellite, the reconstructed SIT shows better performance in the central Arctic than other datasets. Furthermore, when the reconstructed SIT is added to the forecast model with only assimilated SIC, the forecast accuracy of SIC, sea ice extent, and SIT in the Arctic melting season is improved and does not weaken with the increase in the forecast time. Especially in the central Arctic, the average absolute deviation between 24-h SIT forecast results and observations is only 0.16 m. The results indicate great potential for applying the reconstructed SIT to the operational forecast of Arctic sea ice during the melting season in the future. Significance Statement To improve the prediction skills of Arctic sea ice, it is necessary to assimilate the sea ice observation into the dynamic model to generate a more realistic initial prediction field. At present, the observation data of daily sea ice thickness (SIT) during the Arctic melting season are few, which cannot well meet the demand of operational SIT forecast. In this study, a bivariate regression model is put forward to construct SIT using the sea ice concentration (SIC) observation. Benefitting from the joint assimilation of the observed SIC and the reconstructed SIT, the forecast accuracy of sea ice variables is greatly improved. The reconstructed SIT is expected to provide an available dataset for further research on the Arctic sea ice forecast.

Microbial Communities Degrade Ancient Permafrost‐Derived Organic Matter in Arctic Seawater

AbstractThe Arctic is experiencing rapid warming, which among other processes results in increasing erosion of coastal permafrost and the release of ancient organic carbon (OC) into the Arctic Ocean, which in turn might result in greenhouse gas emissions following its decomposition. Supply of terrigenous organic matter to the ocean affects near‐shore nutrient concentrations and the composition of microbial communities—highlighting the need to understand the fate of permafrost‐derived carbon in this fragile ecosystem. We incubated material from coastal Yedoma permafrost for 85 days in seawater collected during the Arctic Century expedition. During this experiment, 2.8 ± 1.4% of OC from coastal Yedoma was respired to CO2. Radiocarbon analysis revealed that 88 ± 15% of the released CO2 originated from ancient material (∼40,000 years), indicating that degradation of permafrost OC reintroduces old carbon into the short‐term carbon cycle. Hence, the permafrost climate feedback may be enhanced in the coming decades when coastal erosion accelerates. Additionally, 0.9 ± 0.3% of Yedoma OC was leached as dissolved OC. The observed net production of inorganic nitrogen during the incubation could potentially provide a negative feedback by stimulating primary production. Bacterial community analysis showed a succession of primary responders to biolabile substrates (e.g., Psychrobacter and Colwellia) followed by secondary consumers of less biolabile substrates (e.g., Maribacter and Pseudohongiella), plus a potential establishment of permafrost associated‐bacteria on particles. Overall, our data show that OC input from thawing permafrost stimulates bacterial dynamics, with likely implications for regional biogeochemical cycles and the Earth's climate.

Automatic detection and tracking polar lows from synthetic aperture radar and radiometer observations

ABSTRACT Polar lows are small, high-latitude, intense maritime cyclones and frequently have severe impacts on the ocean such as strong winds, high waves and heavy rainfall. They are difficult to observe and forecast due to their short lifetime (<48 hours), small horizontal scales (200 ~ 1000 km), and the sparse synoptic observing network that exists in the subarctic and Arctic oceans. Previous studies have identified and monitored polar lows by visual analysis of visible and thermal infrared imagery from satellites. However, this manual inspection method is subjective, time-consuming and inevitably involves errors in polar low detections. In this study, we present an automatic objective procedure which we demonstrate by detecting polar lows using spaceborne active synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and passive microwave radiometer observations. Based on the marker-controlled watershed segmentation method and the morphological image thinning algorithm, the centre locations of polar lows are determined using RADARSAT-2 and Sentinel-1A high-resolution SAR images and total atmospheric water vapour content fields from radiometers (AMSR2, SSM/I, GMI, and WindSat). Furthermore, the trajectories of polar lows are constructed, using detected centres from multi-temporal SAR and radiometer observations. Polar low detections are confirmed by high surface wind speeds from SAR, scatterometer, and radiometer data, the presence of cloud vortex signatures visible in MODIS, AVHRR, and VIIRS thermal infrared imagery, as well as the difference between the sea surface temperature and the air temperature at 500 hPa. These results show that the proposed methods have potential to automatically detect and track polar lows from multisensor data. We also estimate the characteristic parameters of detected polar lows. The diameters, translation speeds, and distances travelled are 189 km and 225 km, 8 m/s and 4.9 m/s, and 318 km and 263 km, respectively.

Summer Hydrography Conditions at Proglacial Fjord Entrances Along East Greenland

AbstractClimate change is causing widespread melting of land and sea ice in the Arctic, leading to an increase in freshwater input to the ocean. This may have an impact on ocean circulation, marine ecosystems, and biodiversity in the region. Our findings provide new insights into the summer hydrography conditions at proglacial fjord entrances along large parts of the east coast of Greenland. As most freshwater exits the Arctic Ocean through Fram Strait this study focuses on understanding the origin of spatial distribution of temperature and freshwater in the coastal waters in East Greenland. We find that Polar Water and the Atlantic Water variants (Eurasian Basin Atlantic Water/Subpolar Mode Water) dominate coastal waters north and south of Denmark Strait, respectively, and that coastal waters are influenced by advected meltwater from the Arctic Ocean, glacier meltwater and local precipitation. Combining hydrographic observations, water isotope data, and water source fraction analysis, we show that glacier meltwaters can be detected at fjord entrances and down to approximately 200 m. Integrated over the upper 200 m of the water column, glacial meltwater account for approximately 9%, precipitation for around 8% and Polar Water (including sea ice melt) for approximately 83% of the freshwater observed along the East Greenland coast. Below 200 m, Atlantic Water variants dominate the entire coastal section. The freshwater along East Greenland stays close to the coast and we could not detect any glacier meltwater at the slope.

Seasonal environmental transitions and metabolic plasticity in a sea-ice alga from an individual cell perspective

Sea-ice microalgae are a key source of energy and nutrient supply to polar marine food webs, particularly during spring, prior to open-water phytoplankton blooms. The nutritional quality of microalgae as a food source depends on their biomolecular (lipid:protein:carbohydrate) composition. In this study, we used synchrotron-based Fourier transform infra-red microspectroscopy (s-FTIR) to measure the biomolecular content of a dominant sea-ice taxa, Nitzschia frigida, from natural land-fast ice communities throughout the Arctic spring season. Repeated sampling over six weeks from an inner (relatively stable) and an outer (relatively dynamic) fjord site revealed high intra-specific variability in biomolecular content, elucidating the plasticity of N. frigida to adjust to the dynamic sea ice and water conditions. Environmental triggers indicating the end of productivity in the ice and onset of ice melt, including nitrogen limitation and increased water temperature, drove an increase in lipid and fatty acids stores, and a decline in protein and carbohydrate content. In the context of climate change and the predicted Atlantification of the Arctic, dynamic mixing and abrupt warmer water advection could truncate these important end-of-season environmental shifts, causing the algae to be released from the ice prior to adequate lipid storage, influencing carbon transfer through the polar marine system.

The Use of Weather, Water, Ice, and Climate (WWIC) Information in the Polar Regions: What Is Known after the Decadelong Polar Prediction Project?

Abstract The polar regions are facing a wide range of compounding challenges, from climate change to increased human activity. Infrastructure, rescue services, and disaster response capabilities are limited in these remote environments. Relevant and usable weather, water, ice, and climate (WWIC) information is vital for safety, activity success, adaptation, and environmental protection. This has been a key focus for the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) Polar Prediction Project (PPP), and in particular its “Societal and Economic Research and Applications” (PPP-SERA) Task Team, which together over a decade have sought to understand polar WWIC information use in relation to operational needs, constraints, and decision contexts to inform the development of relevant services. To understand research progress and gaps on WWIC information use during the PPP (2013–23), we undertook a systematic bibliometric review of aligned scholarly peer-reviewed journal articles (n = 43), examining collaborations, topics, methods, and regional differences. Themes to emerge included activity and context, human factors, information needs, situational awareness, experience, local and Indigenous knowledge, and sharing of information. We observed an uneven representation of disciplinary backgrounds, geographic locations, research topics, and sectoral foci. Our review signifies an overall lack of Antarctic WWIC services research and a dominant focus on Arctic sea ice operations and risks. We noted with concern a mismatch between user needs and services provided. Our findings can help to improve WWIC services’ dissemination, communication effectiveness, and actionable knowledge provision for users and guide future research as the critical need for salient weather services across the polar regions remains beyond the PPP. Significance Statement Every day, people in the Arctic and Antarctic use weather, water, ice, and climate information to plan and carry out outdoor activities and operations in a safe way. Despite advances in numerical weather prediction, technology, and product development, barriers to accessing and effectively communicating high-quality usable observations, forecasts, and actionable knowledge remain. Poorer services, prediction accuracy, and interpretation are exacerbated by a lack of integrated social science research on relevant topics and a mismatch between the services provided and user needs. As a result, continued user engagement, research focusing on information use, risk communication, decision-making processes, and the application of science for services remain highly relevant to reducing risks and improving safety for people living, visiting, and working in the polar regions.

Seasonal variations of Arctic cloud in recent 14 years using CALIPSO-GOCCP

This study documents the three-dimensional structure and long-term trend of Arctic cloud cover with 14-year Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations from a seasonal perspective. Results show that Arctic Ocean presents larger low-level cloudiness and more evident vertical contrast between low and high-level cloud cover than Arctic land. Furthermore, Arctic Atlantic experiences the largest total and low-level cloud cover all year long, with relatively weak seasonal variation. In contrast, the low-level cloud cover over Arctic Pacific displays a pronounced bimodal annual cycle, as well as the low-level cloud cover over Arctic land. Arctic Atlantic with the maximum cloud fraction has the highest altitude of about 1.2 km above open sea in winter, which is near the surface in summer. The cloudiness in the lower troposphere over open water is significantly larger than that over ice except in winter, whereas, the liquid-containing cloud over open water is significantly larger than that over ice in the lower troposphere in four seasons. Moreover, though the liquid-containing cloud dominates the low-level cloud cover, its increasing trend is driven by liquid-containing and ice-containing cloud together. Instead, the ice-containing cloud dominates the high-level cloud cover and its increasing trend in all seasons over most Arctic regions, except a negative trend over Greenland in winter. Our work presents a more comprehensive picture of the Arctic cloud cover, which provides an insight into understanding of Arctic cloud and Arctic climate system.

Wind‐Induced Quasi‐Seasonal and Quasi‐Monthly Variations of Near‐Bottom Temperature on the Chukchi Slope of the Southwestern Canada Basin

AbstractThe time series of near‐bottom temperatures collected from September 2018 until August 2020 from an array of three current‐ and pressure‐recording inverted echo sounders showed quasi‐seasonal and quasi‐monthly (∼28 days) variations at a depth of ∼1,300 m near the Chukchi slope in the western Arctic Ocean. They revealed an increase of ∼0.1°C during the winter‐spring period compared with the summer‐fall period. These variations were observed in the data‐assimilated Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) outputs near the observation site (correlation coefficient &gt;0.7). They confirmed that variations in near‐bottom temperature are related to changes in the intensity of the Atlantic Water (AW) boundary current, concurrent with the deepening of the lower AW layer by approximately 50 m. The difference in sea surface height (SSH) between the Canada Basin and the Chukchi Shelf increased because of the negative wind stress curl (WSC) and retarded the AW boundary current according to the geostrophic effect. When the near‐bottom temperature increased during the winter‐spring period, the SSH in the Chukchi Shelf was lower than that in the summer‐fall period because of the less negative WSC. Quasi‐monthly variations were related to SSH on the Chukchi Shelf owing to the negative WSC. HYCOM outputs from 1994 to 2015 showed that the AW boundary current weakened more recently than in the past due to the increased melting of sea ice. The results imply that a longer sea‐ice‐free season in the Arctic amplifies changes in the AW boundary current and deep ocean temperature owing to increased atmospheric forcing.

Целесообразность создания пилотной площадки по отработке безопасной эксплуатации технико- технологических средств для освоения длительнозамерзающих акваторий арктических морей

The Russian sector of the Arctic shelf to the east of the Kara Sea has been very poorly studied by seismic exploration and drilling. It is conditioned by several causes, one of which is the short ice-free period in combination with the remoteness from the shore bases, which significantly hampers operations making them extremely expensive and resource-consuming. The development of natural resources in conditions specific to the Kara Sea and to the east of it is restricted by the depths of the use of ice-resistant platforms and remoteness from the shore bases for subsea production systems. Various experts consider the perspective solutions of the implementation of subsea manned and unmanned drilling and production systems as concepts. At the same time, the existing technologies and the deep drilling technique are creatively reconsidered; the conclusion regarding the inapplicability of the currently used solutions for subsea wellhead drilling has been made. A specific focus has been made on the safety of the future oil and gas production facilities in the Arctic, considering both the operation of highly hazardous and complex manned underwater engineering facilities and the current strained geopolitical situation and the threats of terrorism. It is supposed that testing of perspective engineering solutions and technologies will be more efficient not only in conditions of plant testing laboratories and centers but also at the test site with maximally realistic conditions of the future operation. The analysis of potential test sites in accordance with selected criteria has chosen the Murmansk gas field in the southeast part of the Barents Sea as a prospective facility. Due to the large scale and complexity of the long-term challenge (20–30 years), a conclusion is made about the role of the state as an initiator and coordinator of the project involving the oil and gas companies concerned (Rosneft, Gazprom), scientific centers, and equipment manufacturers.

Arctic Freshwater Sources and Ocean Mixing Relationships Revealed With Seawater Isotopic Tracing

AbstractThe Arctic Ocean and adjacent seas are undergoing increased freshwater influx due to enhanced glacial and sea ice melt, precipitation, and runoff. Accurate delineation of these freshwater sources is vital as they critically modulate ocean composition and circulation with widespread and varied impacts. Despite this, the delineation of freshwater sources using physical oceanographic measurements (e.g., temperature, salinity) alone is challenging and there is a requirement to improve the partitioning of ocean water masses and their mixing relationships. Here, we complement traditional oceanographic measurements with continuous surface seawater isotopic analysis (δ18O and deuterium excess) across a transect extending from coastal Alaska to Baffin Bay and the Labrador Sea conducted from the US Coast Guard Cutter Healy in Autumn 2021. We find that the diverse isotopic signatures of Arctic freshwater sources, coupled with the high freshwater proportion in these marine systems, facilitates detailed fingerprinting and partitioning. We observe the highest freshwater composition in the Beaufort Sea and Amundsen Gulf regions, with heightened freshwater content in eastern Baffin Bay adjacent to West Greenland. We apply isotopic analysis to delineate freshwater sources, revealing that in the Western Arctic freshwater inputs are dominated by meteoric water inputs—specifically the Mackenzie River—with a smaller sea ice meltwater component and in Baffin Bay the primary sources are local precipitation and glacial meltwater discharge. We demonstrate that such freshwater partitioning cannot be achieved using temperature‐salinity relationships alone, and highlight the potential of seawater isotopic tracers to assess the roles and importance of these evolving freshwater sources.

Categorical data analysis using discretization of continuous variables to investigate associations in marine ecosystems

AbstractUnderstanding and predicting interactions between predators and prey and their environment are fundamental for understanding food web structure, dynamics, and ecosystem function in both terrestrial and marine ecosystems. Thus, estimating the conditional associations between species and their environments is important for exploring connections or cooperative links in the ecosystem, which in turn can help to clarify such directional relationships. For this purpose, a relevant and practical statistical method is required to link presence/absence observations with biomass, abundance, and physical quantities obtained as continuous real values. These data are sometimes sparse in oceanic space and too short as time series data. To meet this challenge, we provide an approach based on applying categorical data analysis to present/absent observations and real‐number data. The real‐number data used as explanatory variables for the present/absent response variable are discretized based on the optimal detection of thresholds without any prior biological/ecological information. These discretized data express two different levels, such as large/small or high/low, which give experts a simple interpretation for investigating complicated associations in marine ecosystems. This approach is implemented in the previous statistical method called CATDAP developed by Sakamoto and Akaike in 1979. Our proposed approach consists of a two‐step procedure for categorical data analysis: (1) finding the appropriate threshold to discretize the real‐number data for applying an independent test; and (2) identifying the best conditional probability model to investigate the possible associations among the data based on a statistical information criterion. We perform a simulation study to validate our proposed approach and investigate whether the method's observation includes many zeros (zero‐inflated data), which can often occur in practical situations. Furthermore, the approach is applied to two datasets: (1) one collected during an international synoptic krill survey in the Scotia Sea west of the Antarctic Peninsula to investigate associations among krill, fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus), surface temperature, depth, slope in depth (flatter or steeper terrain), and temperature gradient (slope in temperature); (2) the other collected by ecosystem surveys conducted during August–September in 2014–2017 to investigate associations among common minke whales, the predatory fish Atlantic cod, and their main prey groups (zooplankton, 0‐group fish) in Arctic Ocean waters to the west and north of Svalbard, Norway. The R code summarizing our proposed numerical procedure is presented in S4S1.

Temporal Variability of Ventilation in the Eurasian Arctic Ocean

AbstractThe Arctic Ocean plays an important role in the regulation of the earth's climate system, for instance by storing large amounts of carbon dioxide within its interior. It also plays a critical role in the global thermohaline circulation, transporting water entering from the Atlantic Ocean to the interior and initializing the southward transport of deep waters. Currently, the Arctic Ocean is undergoing rapid changes due to climate warming. The resulting consequences on ventilation patterns, however, are scarce. In this study we present transient tracer (CFC‐12 and SF6) measurements, in conjunction with dissolved oxygen concentrations, to asses ventilation and circulation changes in the Eurasian Arctic Ocean over three decades (1991–2021). We constrained transit time distributions of water masses in different areas and quantified temporal variability in ventilation. Specifically, mean ages of intermediate water layers in the Eurasian Arctic Ocean were evaluated, revealing a decrease in ventilation in each of the designated areas from 2005 to 2021. This intermediate layer (250–1,500 m) is dominated by Atlantic Water entering from the Nordic Seas. We also identify a variability in ventilation during the observation period in most regions, as the data from 1991 shows mean ages comparable to those from 2021. Only in the northern Amundsen Basin, where the Arctic Ocean Boundary Current is present at intermediate depths, the ventilation in 1991 is congruent to the one in 2005, increasing thereafter until 2021. This suggests a reduced ventilation and decrease in the strength of the Boundary Current during the last 16 years.

Assessing the effectiveness of local organic materials as sorbents for oil spill response in Arctic waters

The paper presents the results of a comparative assessment of the sorption characteristics of regional natural raw materials of organic origin: sphagnum moss (Sphаgnum palustre L.), fucus algae (Fucus vesiclousus), a composite based on them and peat in comparison with the synthetic sorbent OilSorb used in the practice of emergency rescue units to eliminate accidental oil spills. Experimental data have been obtained on potential pollutants in the Barents Sea (oil ARCO and diesel fuel) and the water capacity of sorbents for standard conditions at temperatures of 21–23 °C according to GOST 33627-2015 and in the temperature range of 10–12 °C typical for the summer period on the Kola Peninsula. The sorption characteristics of the materials under study have been evaluated in the "sea water – petroleum product" system, which simulates a real oil spill in the marine area. Tests in a model system simulating real conditions demonstrate significant changes in the efficiency of using sorption materials shown by them under standard conditions. The study has established the dynamics of the distribution of sorbed oil products and water in the materials under consideration, as well as residual oil products in the water of the "sea water – ARCO oil" and "sea water – diesel fuel" systems at different exposure times. During an exposure time of 30, 60, 90 minutes under the conditions of a system simulating a real oil spill in the water area, the material based on sphagnum moss has the most effective and time-stable indicators of sorption of oil products.