Arctic Ocean Research Articles

Formation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation lower limb is critically dependent on Atlantic-Arctic mixing

Deep-water formation in the eastern Subpolar North Atlantic Ocean (eSPNA) and Nordic Seas is crucial for maintaining the lower limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), of consequence for global climate. However, it is still uncertain which processes determine the deep-water formation and how much Atlantic and Arctic waters respectively contribute to the lower limb. To address this, here we used Lagrangian trajectories to diagnose a global eddy-resolving ocean model that agrees well with recent observations highlighting the eSPNA as a primary source of the AMOC lower limb. Comprised of 72% Atlantic waters and 28% Arctic waters, the density and depth of the AMOC lower limb is critically dependent on Atlantic-Arctic mixing, primarily in the vicinity of Denmark Strait. In contrast, Atlantic waters gaining density through air-sea interaction along the eastern periphery of Nordic Seas and not entering the Arctic Ocean make a negligible contribution to the lower limb.

Microplastics may reduce the efficiency of the biological carbon pump by decreasing the settling velocity and carbon content of marine snow

AbstractPlastics are pervasive in marine ecosystems and ubiquitous in both shallow and deep oceans. Microfibers, among other microplastics, accumulate in deep‐sea sediments at concentrations up to four orders of magnitude higher than in surface waters. This is at odds with the fact that most microfibers are positively buoyant; therefore, it is hypothesized that settling aggregates are vectors for the downward transport of microfibers in the ocean. However, little is known about the impact of microfibers on carbon export. We formed diatom aggregates with differing concentrations of microfibers using roller tanks and observed that microfiber addition stimulated aggregate formation, but decreased their structural cohesion and caused them to break apart more readily, resulting in smaller average sizes. The incorporation of positively buoyant microfibers into settling aggregates reduced their size‐specific sinking velocities proportional to the microfiber concentration. Slower sinking may extend aggregate retention time in the upper ocean, thereby increasing the time available for organic matter remineralization in the upper water column. Here, we show that at concentrations of 105 microfibers per cubic meter, microfiber incorporation into settling marine aggregates decreases potential export flux by 8–45%. Microfibers accumulating at such high concentrations, for example, in Arctic sea ice, may, therefore, be substantially reducing the efficiency of the biological carbon pump relative to the pre‐plastic era.

New morphological structures of Priapulus caudatus, Lamarck 1816 (Priapulida) and analysis of homologous characters across macroscopic priapulids

The macroscopic Priapulus caudatus Lamarck, 1816 is one of the most investigated priapulids, yet, the adult morphology warrants detailed characterization and analyses of potential priapulid homologies. Using light microscopy, scanning electron microscopy and histology, we examine adult specimens of P. caudatus from three localities in the Northeast Atlantic and the Arctic Oceans (Gullmarsfjord, North Sea, White Sea). Our examinations show ring papillae on the posterior trunk of P. caudatus for the first time in detail and describe previously overlooked structures on the circumoral field (hemispherical papillae, ring 0 scalids and circular folds). In addition, we add new information on pharyngeal teeth, scalids, trunk papillae, posterior warts, and on spinulets of the caudal appendage. The new collected data of P. caudatus allows us to compare structures across species of the macroscopic Priapulidae (Acanthopriapulus, Priapulopsis, Priapulus, Halicryptus) in detail and to build hypotheses on their homology within this clade.

Long-term measurements reveal a 100-day lag between peaks in phytoplankton chlorophyll and benthic bacterial abundance in the Fram Strait

Abstract Repeated measurements of benthic and pelagic parameters in the rapidly changing Arctic Ocean provide a unique insight into spatial and interannual trends and changes in the ecosystem. Here, we compiled biogenic and biogeochemical measurements collected from sediment cores at the Long-Term Ecological Research Observatory HAUSGARTEN located in the Fram Strait. A total of 21 stations were visited yearly over a period of 18 years (2002–2019). The time series highlighted an increase in bacterial numbers for samples collected 50 days after the peak phytoplankton bloom. Although bacterial abundances were not bathymetric depth-dependent when viewed across all years, we observed a seasonal trend in benthic microbial abundance closely related to the timing of the phytoplankton bloom with a time-lag of 100 days between the surface phytoplankton peak and the peak in bacterial abundance in the sediment. Considering the residence time of phytoplankton in the upper ocean and the water depth, we estimated an average settling velocity for phytodetritus of 30 m.d−1, which is similar to previous observations from Fram Strait. This suggests that settling organic matter promotes vertical microbial connectivity and benthic bacterial abundance in the deep ocean, shaping the microbial biogeography, diversity, and biogeochemical processes.

РЕЗУЛЬТАТЫ НАУЧНЫХ ЭКСПЕДИЦИОННЫХ ГЕОЛОГО-ГЕОФИЗИЧЕСКИХ ИССЛЕДОВАНИЙ ПОЛЕЗНЫХ ИСКОПАЕМЫХ МОРЕЙ ДАЛЬНЕВОСТОЧНОГО РЕГИОНА РОССИЙСКОЙ ФЕДЕРАЦИИ И ТИХОГО ОКЕАНА (ПРОЕКТ «ГЕОМИР»)

The paper presents a brief overview of the results of integrated geological, geophysical and oceanographic studies for the period 2017–2023, for which interregional generalizations were made on some promising areas of study of underwater mineral resources and the environment. The data on geological underwater objects, in particular, manganese ores of the Sea of Japan and the Sea of Okhotsk and adjacent water areas; rare-earth ores of the Tomtor ore cluster, ancient and modern coastal-marine placers of the Laptev Sea coast are presented; barite ore occurrences “Barite Hills” (in the Sea of Okhotsk); ferromanganese formations of the Eastern Arctic shelf of Russia; coastal marine placers of the shelf and coast of the Far Eastern seas, including gold-bearing placers. including gold-bearing placers of the shelf zone of the south of Primorye and north of Sakhalin, titanomagnetite placers of the Kuril Islands, gold-bearing placers of the North Sakhalin Plain and others. Direct signs of hydrocarbons were obtained in areas previously considered unpromising (including the South China Sea), gas hydrate accumulations were mapped and studied in the Sea of Okhotsk and the Sea of Japan, prospecting for gas hydrates in the Bering Sea was prepared, and comparative studies of hydrate-bearing capacity of the marginal seas of the NW Pacific and the Indian Ocean were carried out. The main features of the distribution of lithologic and gas-geochemical indicators of hydrocarbon gases in bottom sediments of the southwestern sector of the East Siberian Sea, which is the least studied in terms of oil and gas content, were studied. Based on the data of gas-geochemical studies, the prospects of oil and gas content of the eastern shelf of the Arctic were assessed. The results of geomicrobiological studies in the seas of the Far East region are described. In some cases deepsea sediments themselves (peloid-like sediments, etc.) appear to be a separate huge mineral resource. At present, the “continent-ocean” transition zone and neutral waters can become the most important source of replenishing the mineral resource base of these mineral components. The presented research corresponds to the main objectives of the GEOMIR project of the national action plan within the UN Decade of Ocean Sciences for Sustainable Development (2021–2030) and was carried out mainly in accordance with the directions of the state assignment. Studies of gas hydrates were carried out within the framework of the WESTPAC working group “Gas hydrates and methane fluxes in the Indo-Pacific region” (CoSGas, 2021–2024), established on the initiative and under the leadership of Russia.

Fungal aerosols over the Northwest Pacific to Arctic Ocean: The influence of air mass and environmental factors

Bioaerosols, prevalent in the atmosphere, serve as carriers for microbe transmission and can also act as Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN) and Ice Nuclei (IN), exerting significant influence on cloud microphysics, radiative forcing, precipitation processes, and global climate dynamics. In this study, we conducted a comprehensive study of airborne fungi from the Northwest Pacific to the Arctic Ocean. During the 9th Chinese National Arctic Research Expedition (Chinare, 2018) cruise, total suspended particulate matter (TSP) samples were collected, followed by high-throughput sequencing to determine the microbial community's structure. Ascomycota and Basidiomycota are widespread in marine fungal aerosols along this route, with a notably higher abundance of Epicoccum and Cladosporium in fungal aerosols from the low-latitude Northwest Pacific compared to the high-latitude Arctic Ocean region. The composition of fungal communities depended on air mass transport processes and environmental factors. Long-range transport of terrestrial air masses not only enriches the abundance of fungal aerosols but also increases the relative abundance of dominant genera such as Basidiomycota, Epicoccum and Cladosporium. The knowledge gap about fungal aerosols over the Arctic route from the Northwest Pacific to the Arctic Ocean was filled in part by this work. This study deepens our understanding of how environmental factors and terrestrial air masses influence the composition and distribution of fungal community, offering valuable insights into the interconnections between marine and terrestrial ecosystems and their potential impacts on climate and atmospheric processes.

Study of the impact of low ambient air and seawater temperatures on the possibility of mining solid minerals in arctic waters

Study of the impact of low ambient air and seawater temperatures on the possibility of mining solid minerals in arctic waters

Dynamics of catches and state of stocks the European perch Perca fluviatilis in rivers in the middle Ob basin (in the Tomsk region)

European perch Perca fluviatilis Linnaeus, 1758 — is a mediumsized representative of the Percidae. It distributed in lowland rivers, lakes and artificial reservoirs, as well as in desalinated coastal areas of the seas of Northern Eurasia, with the exception of the Far East and the coast of the Arctic Ocean. This species is numerous almost everywhere. It is one of the main objects of industrial and amateur fishing. In the Middle Ob basin, a significant part of the life cycle of perch is associated with the floodplain system. There is, during the spring flood, its spawning and subsequent feeding of juveniles and producers take place. Therefore, the regulation of the Ob’s flow by the Novosibirsk hydroelectric power station dam served as one of the important factors that had a negative impact on the state of its reserves. Thus, within the Tomsk region, commercial catches of perch before the regulation of the Ob flow (1946–1961) averaged 354 tons per year, and after regulation (during the period of stable fishing pressure, in 1960–1985) — 157 tons. In recent years (2018–2022), the catch of perch has increased slightly and, according to official fisheries statistics, amounts to 211 tons per year, providing 5.9% of the total fish production in the region. Currently, the reserves of perch are in a relatively stable state, the estimated indicators of its biomass in rivers within the Tomsk region in recent years range from 1190.9 to 2277.5 tons, with an average number of 10.6 million pieces. The development of the perch’ reserves is satisfactory, averaging 94.2% of the recommended catch. Amateur fishermen do not have a significant impact on the state of perch stocks.

The Conditions for the Formation of Strontium in the Water of Ancient Silicate Deposits Near the Arctic Coast of Russia

The Conditions for the Formation of Strontium in the Water of Ancient Silicate Deposits Near the Arctic Coast of Russia

Highly variable magmatic accretion at the ultraslow-spreading Gakkel Ridge

Crustal accretion at mid-ocean ridges governs the creation and evolution of the oceanic lithosphere. Generally accepted models1–4 of passive mantle upwelling and melting predict notably decreased crustal thickness at a spreading rate of less than 20 mm year−1. We conducted the first, to our knowledge, high-resolution ocean-bottom seismometer (OBS) experiment at the Gakkel Ridge in the Arctic Ocean and imaged the crustal structure of the slowest-spreading ridge on the Earth. Unexpectedly, we find that crustal thickness ranges between 3.3 km and 8.9 km along the ridge axis and it increased from about 4.5 km to about 7.5 km over the past 5 Myr in an across-axis profile. The highly variable crustal thickness and relatively large average value does not align with the prediction of passive mantle upwelling models. Instead, it can be explained by a model of buoyant active mantle flow driven by thermal and compositional density changes owing to melt extraction. The influence of active versus passive upwelling is predicted to increase with decreasing spreading rate. The process of active mantle upwelling is anticipated to be primarily influenced by mantle temperature and composition. This implies that the observed variability in crustal accretion, which includes notably varied crustal thickness, is probably an inherent characteristic of ultraslow-spreading ridges.

Identification of Key Habitats of Bowhead and Blue Whales in the OSPAR Area of the North-East Atlantic—A Modelling Approach towards Effective Conservation

Effective protection of highly mobile and data-poor species constitutes a great challenge amid growing ocean exploitation and use. Blue whales and bowhead whales in the North-East Atlantic face several threats, such as climate change, ship strikes, pollution, and entanglement in fishing gear. Consequently, the OSPAR (“Oslo-Paris Convention for the Protection of the Marine Environment of the North-East Atlantic”) Commission recognised their need for protection and included them on the OSPAR List of Threatened and/or Declining Species. Two actions to protect these endangered species that OSPAR Contracting Parties have agreed on are (i) identifying areas that play an essential role in the species’ life cycle—subsequently called key habitats, and (ii) ensuring that those key habitats are covered by OSPAR marine protected areas (MPAs). In addition, OSPAR has committed to expanding its network of MPAs and other effective area-based conservation measures by 2030 to cover at least 30% of the OSPAR maritime area (termed the 30 × 30 target) from today’s approx. 11%. In this paper, we present the results of modelling key habitats for the bowhead and blue whales in the North-East Atlantic, including Arctic waters. Due to the sparse data situation for these species, we apply presence-only modelling methods. As this method can, in principle, produce somewhat biased results, we recommend that systematic, regular surveys on these species in Arctic waters be significantly intensified for future analyses to overcome the data paucity and allow using presence–absence/count data modelling approaches. Key habitats of blue whales were identified between Iceland and Svalbard, extending to the Azores. For bowhead whales, key habitats were identified in the Fram Strait. However, our findings show that only 11.8% of blue whale key habitats and 4.1% of bowhead whale key habitats are currently covered by OSPAR MPAs. To protect 30% of key habitats for these species in the most efficient way, our analyses suggest that suitable areas to designate new OSPAR MPAs are located around the Azores for blue whales and in the Fram Strait for bowhead whales. With these additional MPAs, OSPAR would substantially improve the protection of the two endangered species and, at the same time, progress towards its 30 × 30 target.

Bathymetry-constrained ocean geostrophic currents play a key role in shaping the sea ice circulation in the Canada Basin, Arctic Ocean

Abstract Satellite-based observations and a pan-Arctic coupled sea ice-ocean model are utilized to study the effect of ocean geostrophic currents on large-scale sea ice circulation in the Canada Basin, Arctic Ocean. We find that surface winds primarily drive sea ice drifts in the west-east direction, while the geostrophic currents in the Beaufort Gyre promote north-south ice drifts. Wind fluctuations can create variable ice drifts, yet geostrophic currents respond more slowly due to their larger vertical scale, serving as a slowly-evolving conveyor belt for maintaining the anticyclonic ice circulation. It is further demonstrated that the bathymetry can regulate the movement of sea ice via constraining the expansion of ocean circulation. This mechanism is indirect in the sense that the ice is far from the seafloor. Our research underscores the necessity of considering the bathymetry-constrained geostrophic currents in understanding Arctic sea ice dynamics. With the rapid retreat of Arctic sea ice, the multi-scale interactions between ice drifts and ocean currents may have significant implications for the Arctic ecosystem, climate, and shipping corridors.

The atmospheric connection between the Arctic and Eurasia is underestimated in simulations with prescribed sea ice

Numerous analyses have demonstrated the impact of Arctic sea ice loss on Eurasia during wintertime. However, dynamical models inconsistently support the observed Arctic-Eurasia connection. The critical physical processes causing discrepancies remain unclear. Here, through numerical simulation, we found that the Arctic-Eurasian connection is underestimated when the model is forced with prescribed sea ice concentrations. The suppressed turbulent heat flux over the Arctic sea ice surface, due to the oversimplified sea ice states, is likely an important physical process leading to model spread. By incorporating the reanalyzed turbulent heat flux into the model, we enhance the heat transfer and reproduce the Arctic-Eurasian connection. The weakened Siberian Storm Track and reduced baroclinicity favors the strengthened Siberian High through eddy feedback forcing. These findings highlight the vital role of turbulent heat flux related to sea ice loss, emphasizing the urgent need for enhanced model fidelity in representing the sea ice processes.

Spatial patterns in chlorophyll a concentration during the winter–spring periods in the Barents Sea

Climatic fluctuations have been documented to strongly affect Arctic marine ecosystems. Plankton assemblages serve as the most sensitive indicators of such environmental forcing. We conducted a study to investigate the spatial variability of chlorophyll a (Chl-a) concentration during two pre-bloom periods (March–April 2021 and February–March 2022) in relation to the distribution of different water masses and associated properties. The upper 50 m layer of the water column was homogeneous and stable, characterized by high nutrient concentrations. Our mapping of the Barents Sea based on Chl-a concentrations revealed low estimates during the winter period. In contrast, two distinct Chl-a peaks were observed in the spring. The first region with high Chl-a concentrations was identified in Murmansk Coastal Water and Atlantic Water (0.7–1.4 mg m−3), reflecting the positive impact of the frontal zone between these interacting water masses. The second region with elevated Chl-a concentrations (0.9–1.1 mg m−3) was located in Kolguev-Pechora Water near the southeastern ice edge. Cold water regions (Barents Sea Water, Arctic Water, Novaya Zemlya Coastal Water) exhibited low spring Chl-a concentrations (0.03–0.3 mg m−3). Generalized additive models identified hydrological variables (temperature and salinity), dissolved oxygen content, and nutrient concentrations (nitrite, nitrate, phosphate) as significant predictors explaining a substantial portion of the Chl-a variability.

Large-Scale Climate Modes Drive Low-Frequency Regional Arctic Sea Ice Variability

Abstract Summer Arctic sea ice is declining rapidly but with superimposed variability on multiple time scales that introduces large uncertainties in projections of future sea ice loss. To better understand what drives at least part of this variability, we show how a simple linear model can link dominant modes of climate variability to low-frequency regional Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) anomalies. Focusing on September, we find skillful projections from global climate models (GCMs) from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) at lead times of 4–20 years, with up to 60% of observed low-frequency variability explained at a 5-yr lead time. The dominant driver of low-frequency SIC variability is the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) which is positively correlated with SIC anomalies in all regions up to a lead time of 15 years but with large uncertainty between GCMs and internal variability realization. The Niño-3.4 index and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation have better agreement between GCMs of being positively and negatively related, respectively, with low-frequency SIC anomalies for at least 10-yr lead times. The large variations between GCMs and between members within large ensembles indicate the diverse simulation of teleconnections between the tropics and Arctic sea ice and the dependence on the initial climate state. Further, the influence of the Niño-3.4 index was found to be sensitive to the background climate. Our results suggest that, based on the 2022 phases of dominant climate variability modes, enhanced loss of sea ice area across the Arctic is likely during the next decade. Significance Statement The purpose of this study is to better understand the drivers of low-frequency variability of Arctic sea ice. Teasing out the complicated relationships within the climate system takes a large number of examples. Here, we use 42 of the latest generation of global climate models to construct a simple linear model based on dominant named climate features to predict regional low-frequency sea ice anomalies at a lead time of 2–20 years. In 2022, these modes of variability happen to be in the phases most conducive to low Arctic sea ice concentration anomalies. Given the context of the longer-term trend of sea ice loss due to global warming, our results suggest accelerated Arctic sea ice loss in the next decade.

Arctic September Sea Ice Concentration Biases in CMIP6 Models and Their Relationships with Other Model Variables

Abstract The models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) exhibit large biases in Arctic sea ice climatology that seem related to biases in seasonal atmospheric and oceanic circulations. Using historical runs of 34 CMIP6 models from 1979 to 2014, we investigate the links between the climatological sea ice concentration (SIC) biases in September and atmospheric and oceanic model climatologies. The main intermodel spread of September SIC is well described by two leading EOFs, which together explain ∼65% of its variance. The first EOF represents an underestimation or overestimation of SIC in the whole Arctic, while the second EOF describes opposite SIC biases in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors. Regression analysis indicates that the two SIC modes are closely related to departures from the multimodel mean of Arctic surface heat fluxes during summer, primarily shortwave and longwave radiation, with incoming Atlantic Water playing a role in the Atlantic sector. Local and global links with summer cloud cover, low-level humidity, upper or lower troposphere temperature/circulation, and oceanic variables are also found. As illustrated for three climate models, the local relationships with the SIC biases are mostly similar in the Arctic across the models but show varying degrees of Atlantic inflow influence. On a global scale, a strong influence of the summer atmospheric circulation on September SIC is suggested for one of the three models, while the atmospheric influence is primarily via thermodynamics in the other two. Clear links to the North Atlantic oceanic circulation are seen in one of the models.

Two Decades of Arctic Sea-Ice Thickness from Satellite Altimeters: Retrieval Approaches and Record of Changes (2003–2023)

There now exists two decades of basin-wide coverage of Arctic sea ice from three dedicated polar-orbiting altimetry missions (ICESat, CryoSat-2, and ICESat-2) launched by NASA and ESA. Here, we review our retrieval approaches and discuss the composite record of Arctic ice thickness (2003–2023) after appending two more years (2022–2023) to our earlier records. The present availability of five years of snow depth estimates—from differencing lidar (ICESat-2) and radar (CryoSat-2) freeboards—have benefited from the concurrent operation of two altimetry missions. Broadly, the dramatic volume loss (5500 km3) and Arctic-wide thinning (0.6 m) captured by ICESat (2003–2009), primarily due to the decline in old ice coverage between 2003 and 2007, has slowed. In the central Arctic, away from the coasts, the CryoSat-2 and shorter ICESat-2 records show near-negligible thickness trends since 2007, where the winter and fall ice thicknesses now hover around 2 m and 1.3 m, from a peak of 3.6 m and 2.7 m in 1980. Ice volume production has doubled between the fall and winter with the faster-growing seasonal ice cover occupying more than half of the Arctic Ocean at the end of summer. Seasonal ice behavior dominates the Arctic Sea ice’s interannual thickness and volume signatures.

Interannual Variability and Trend of the Bering Strait Throughflow Gleaned from Satellite Altimeters

Abstract Beginning with the TOPEX/Poseidon altimetry mission in 1992, along-track satellite sea surface height (SSH) estimates have been taken every 6-7 km at 10-day intervals at a cluster of satellite tracks across the Bering Strait near 66°N where the satellite tracks turn. Year-to-year geostrophic SSH estimates of the Bering Strait flow show that the flow in the warmer months is almost entirely confined to a 50m depth channel rather than the whole cross-sectional area, and that the peak-to-peak transport change is comparable to the approximate 0.8 Sverdrup mean. Energy flux calculations using the high-resolution SSH across Bering Strait, as well as an analysis of historical coastal Russian sea levels and wind stress along the Russian Arctic shelf and Bering Sea shelves, suggest that the interannual Bering Strait transport in the warmer water months can be described using wind-forced Arrested Topographic Waves (ATWs) driven by along-shelf wind stress on both the Russian Arctic and Bering Sea shelves. Most of the Bering Strait transport is barotropic in the 50m-depth channel, but analysis of SSH and in situ Alaskan coastal sea level shows that interannual transport variations in the narrow baroclinic Alaskan Coastal Current are not negligible. In disagreement with previous transport estimates, the satellite SSH analysis and almost all of the in situ current measurements do not indicate a significant long-term trend in barotropic Bering Strait northward transport in the warmer water late-summer/fall months.

A Transfer-Learning-Like Neural Dynamics Algorithm for Arctic Sea Ice Extraction

Sea ice plays a pivotal role in ocean-related research, necessitating the development of highly accurate and robust techniques for its extraction from diverse satellite remote sensing imagery. However, conventional learning methods face limitations due to the soaring cost and time associated with manually collecting sufficient sea ice data for model training. This paper introduces an innovative approach where Neural Dynamics (ND) algorithms are seamlessly integrated with a recurrent neural network, resulting in a Transfer-Learning-Like Neural Dynamics (TLLND) algorithm specifically tailored for sea ice extraction. Firstly, given the susceptibility of the image extraction process to noise in practical scenarios, an ND algorithm with noise tolerance and high extraction accuracy is proposed to address this challenge. Secondly, The internal coefficients of the ND algorithm are determined using a parametric method. Subsequently, the ND algorithm is formulated as a decoupled dynamical system. This enables the coefficients trained on a linear equation problem dataset to be directly generalized to solve the sea ice extraction challenges. Theoretical analysis ensures that the effectiveness of the proposed TLLND algorithm remains unaffected by the specific characteristics of various dataset. To validate its efficacy, robustness, and generalization performance, several comparative experiments are conducted using diverse Arctic sea ice satellite imagery with varying levels of noise. The outcomes of these experiments affirm the competence of the proposed TLLND algorithm in addressing the complexities associated with sea ice extraction.

Responses of the Arctic sea ice drift to general warming and intraseasonal oscillation in the local atmosphere

Responses of the Arctic sea ice drift to general warming and intraseasonal oscillation in the local atmosphere