Anti-crisis Measures Research Articles

SYNERGY OF ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE AND ANTI-CRISIS STRATEGIES IN ENSURING ENTERPRISE STABILITY

The article considers the current problem of ensuring the stability of an enterprise in conditions of economic instability through the synergy of the organizational structure and anti-crisis strategies. The research aims to learn about different approaches to the integration of organizational structures with strategic management, which contribute to increasing the adaptability of an enterprise to external challenges. The main elements of synergy are considered to be, in particular, the mechanisms of implementing anti-crisis measures within the existing organizational structure, which allow for increasing the stability of an enterprise in conditions of market instability. The article draws attention to the fact that effective cooperation of the organizational structure with anti-crisis strategies significantly improves the ability of an enterprise to adapt to changes in the external environment. Based on the data obtained, recommendations are formulated for improving management decisions aimed at increasing the adaptive potential of an enterprise. In particular, the possibilities of optimizing internal processes in order to react faster to changes and minimize risks related to crisis phenomena were analyzed in detail, which ensures the stability and competitiveness of the enterprise. The possibilities of optimizing internal processes in order to react faster to changes in the external environment are considered. Particular attention was paid to the role of leadership in implementing strategic changes. The effectiveness of using the company's resources in crisis conditions was assessed. The role of leadership in implementing strategic changes is considered separately. Leadership in crisis times plays an important role in ensuring the effectiveness of implementing anti-crisis measures, as well as in strengthening the corporate culture, which contributes to increasing the level of trust and cohesion of the team. The article shows that the effective use of the company's resources in crisis conditions is a key factor in ensuring its long-term stability. The conclusions from the work indicate the need to improve the organizational structure of the company in order to ensure its greater integration with anti-crisis strategies, which will allow the company to effectively face external challenges and strengthen its competitive position on the market. Therefore, the presented article contains practical recommendations that may be useful both for business managers and researchers in the field of strategic management and organizational development in conditions of economic instability.

THE ROLE OF SUCCESSFUL PUBLIC RELATIONS IN CRISIS SITUATIONS

This article analyzes the theoretical foundations of the emerging concepts of anti-crisis PR, in particular, the tasks and functions of crisis management services are considered. A comparative analysis was made using the example of large global companies. The integration of new communication PR technologies during a turning point has been studied. The role of the media in maintaining a positive image of organizations is specifically noted. A definition is given to the concept of “crisis” and crisis communications. In addition, theories of crisis communications (reputation restoration, situational crisis) are considered. Using the example of foreign and national companies, anti-crisis measures are analyzed. McDonald’s Sets Out to Conquer the World by Changing its Image. 2003. A business journal from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. Knowledge at Wharton. Electronic resource: https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/mcdonalds-sets-out-to-conquer-the-world-by-changing-its-image/ Date of the application: 21.06.2024. Muratova, N. 2022. Mass Media in State Strategic Programs of Information Society Development in Different Countries. International Journal of Social Science Research and Review. 5:4. 56-61. Post on Facebook, 2018. Electronic resource: https://www.facebook.com/oqtepalavash.official/photos/a.1419760331386261/2725700707458877/?type=3&theater / Date of the application: 19/06/2024. Меньшиков, А. 2013. Паблик рилейшнз в кризисных ситуациях. Комсомольск-на-Амуре. ФГБОУ ВПО «КнАГТУ. 75

Anti-sanction and sanction economic policy of Russia in 2022–2025. Part 3: analysis of anti-crisis measures, managing Russian sanctions and anti-sanctions

Anti-sanction and sanction economic policy of Russia in 2022–2025. Part 3: analysis of anti-crisis measures, managing Russian sanctions and anti-sanctions

Assessing the Impact of COVID-19 on Banks’ Profitability: The Role of Size in an Emerging Economy

This work investigates the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on Brazilian banks’ profitability, and if the impact was stronger for smaller banks. Brazil was highly affected by COVID-19 crisis, has a highly concentrated banking sector, and is well known for the high technology of its financial market. We collected information from 42 banks on the quarterly financial statements available in Brazilian Central Banks during the period between January/2016 and March/2021. We ran Arellano–Bond generalized method of moments dynamic panel regression and our results confirm that the COVID-19 crisis negatively impacted the profitability of the Brazilian banks and that large banks were the most affected. Brazilian government adopted anti-crisis measures that relaxed regulations in order to decrease credit spreads. This may have alleviated the impact of the crises on small banks and also encouraged the appearance of fintech companies, which competed directly with banks.

Currency Hegemony as a Tool of US Global Dominance

Subject. The formation of new centers of global influence predetermines corresponding changes in the global balance of power. At the same time, the lack of real reforms of the global monetary system allows the United States to continue to set the rules of the game in the global economy, despite its increasing crisis potential. In this regard, there is a need to identify the driving forces capable of producing constructive changes in the global monetary order. Objective. A summary of the practice of using the US dollar to suppress global competition and maintain American superiority in international economic relations. Results. The control of the international monetary sphere by the country — hegemon of the world economy can be traced at all stages of the development of international economic relations (IER). Currently, the hegemonic country’s self-interest from issuing international liquidity, with non-resistance to such a policy on the part of all other IER participants, hinders the development of effective anti-crisis measures and worsens the general condition of the world economy. Scattered attempts to overcome the failures of global currency regulation at the local level (including through the use of digital technologies) seem to be ineffective, since they are not systemic in nature. Conclusions. A qualitative reform of the global monetary system is impossible without combining the efforts of the world’s largest economies to counter the destructive policies of the country that issues key international liquidity. Otherwise, the costs of financial crises become an insurmountable obstacle to the global economy entering a path of sustainable development.

A brand’s Initiation and Promotion in Relation to Modern Culture Wars

Nowadays, there is a tense geopolitical situation because of the advance of NATO to Russian borders, the threat of violation of its sovereignty. The collective West aims to dismantle Russian statehood and undermine social cohesion, law and order, national values, and socio-cultural values. They fixate on restoring neocolonialism and imposing global dominance on sovereign states. The paper focuses on the aggression of the collective West towards Russia’s cultural values, posing a threat to its national historical code. The subject of the study is the actions of cultural wars between brands and countries, which caused adopting anti-crisis measures. The purpose of the study is to analyze and provide possible strategies and models of brand behavior during crisis situations caused by culture wars. The research deals with the following issues: the modern phenomenon of culture wars; the role of the cultural brand in relation to culture wars; the possibility of using commercial brands as a tool of soft power; the influence of brands on the formation and changes of cultural, national and traditional values; the phenomena of culture shock and brand cancellation culture, as well as methods of countering crisis situations.

INNOVATIVE ANTI-CRISIS MANAGEMENT AT TRADE ENTERPRISES IN THE CONTEXT OF EUROPEAN INTEGRATION AND RISKS IN UKRAINE

The article examines the activities of commercial enterprises during the crisis caused by the war, the coronavirus, and the European integration aspirations of Ukraine as a candidate for membership in the European Union. Despite the significant number of publications on anti-crisis policy, there are still unresolved problems related to risk management in the process of ensuring the anti-crisis policy of trade enterprises in the global economic uncertainty. Most of the companies in this sector suffered collapse and bankruptcy due to the complexity of operating conditions during this difficult period: power cuts, labour migration, changes in international and domestic supply conditions, selection of new suppliers, destruction of road and warehouse infrastructure, and the search for new logistics routes. The aim of this article is to offer practical recommendations that will help retailers strengthen their resilience, adapt to the changing environment through innovative crisis management measures, and quickly recover from the crisis to reach or exceed the previous level of financial and operational stability. The research methodology involves a two-pronged approach: a qualitative study through a literature review and interviews, which gives an idea of crisis management, and quantitative methods, including surveys and analysis of financial indicators. The article examines the activities of trade enterprises in the crisis period of the pre-war years, i.e., the time of the pandemic's impact on the dynamics of trade. It analyses the losses of retailers during the war. The objectives of crisis financial management are defined. The relationship between crisis management and the solvency and financial stability of trade enterprises is determined. The impact of insolvency of trade enterprises on the payment of wages to employees is identified. The authors propose a number of anti-crisis measures for trade enterprises in the context of wartime and a global pandemic, such as transition to online trading using marketing strategies and plans, cost reduction, effective inventory management, modelling the sensitivity of financial indicators to changes in the external environment, and search for innovative opportunities. Attention is focused on the growing role of human capital in business recovery, including the importance of staff training and professional development, improvement of motivation systems and human resource management. The paper suggests ways to increase labour productivity, such as process automation and the effective use of data analytics. Results. Thus, the objective need for innovative tools for crisis management of trade enterprises becomes a key element of research in the context of European integration and wartime.

ДІАГНОСТИКА ЙМОВІРНОСТІ БАНКРУТСТВА ПІДПРИЄМСТВ

Formulation of the problem. In the period of today's complex challenges - the conduct of military operations on the territory of Ukraine, the consequences of the pandemic, an unfavorable investment climate, and others - the detection of the probability of bankruptcy of enterprises is of particular importance. Timely detection of the onset of crisis phenomena using various methods and models and the adoption of precautionary measures ensure the avoidance of financial instability in the future. Therefore, conducting a timely diagnosis of the probability of bankruptcy is relevant, because there is a growing need for effective financial management in order to achieve the goals set by enterprises in the long term. The purpose of the research is to build a methodology for diagnosing the probability of bankruptcy of enterprises based on various bankruptcy models, based on the conditions of their activity, and to form forecasts of their further development on this basis. The object of the research is the process of constructing a diagnosis of the probability of bankruptcy of aviation industry enterprises. The method of the research - its became modern methods and principles of scientific knowledge, methods and techniques for evaluating bankruptcy diagnostics, tools of financial and economic analysis, models for forecasting further development, which allowed to combine existing approaches for multifaceted assessment of the probability of bankruptcy and identification of factors affecting the unstable activity of enterprises. The hypothesis of the research there was an assumption about the possibility of building a methodology for diagnosing the probability of bankruptcy of enterprises using modern, widely used methods of assessing bankruptcy, financial analysis of the results of operations and forming forecasts of further stable development. The statement of basic materials. The article examines the main stages of diagnosing the probability of bankruptcy of aviation enterprises, which provides an opportunity to determine the factors that generate unstable activity, develop appropriate countermeasures to avoid problem areas, and predict the improvement of development conditions. It is emphasized that each individual enterprise can use its own methods of assessing the probability of bankruptcy, which require the development of further specific anti-crisis measures, but the proposed method allows a comprehensive and thorough approach to the prompt detection and avoidance of crisis phenomena at enterprises. The originality and practical significance of the research is confirmed by the approbation of the proposed methodology for diagnosing the probability of bankruptcy at aviation industry enterprises. Conclusions and perspectives of further research. It has been proven that the use of the proposed methodology for diagnosing the probability of bankruptcy at enterprises allows recognizing and identifying threats, predicting their consequences, making operational decisions regarding the elimination of threats and adjusting the strategic goals of the enterprise's development. Further research will be aimed at assessing the probability of bankruptcy of enterprises in priority sectors of the national economy and developing measures for their recovery activity.

Current trends in bank lending in the Republic of Moldova

Bank lending represents the basic form of lending activity in the Republic of Moldova, as well as the core of the national lending system. It has the important function of contributing to the normal functioning of the financial system and contributing to the economic development of the country. The basic purpose of the conducted research was to determine the basic trends of the evolution of bank lending in the Republic of Moldova, as well as to highlight its qualitative transformation. For this, the official financial reports in the addressed field were examined, as well as the related information published in open sources of information. The carried out research demonstrated a certain continuous expansion of the lending activity of local banks. In the same way, during the last years there has been a certain qualitative transformation of it through the exploration of separate segments and niches of the market, the application of advanced digital technologies, as well as the continuous adaptation to the mobile conditions of the domestic financial market. The top commercial banks can be considered as the main promoters of the development of bank lending. The over-liquidity and pandemic crises, as well as the anti-crisis measures undertaken by the authorized public institutions, are the stimulating factors of the innovative process on the bank credit market. This article comes to present a complex picture of bank lending in the dynamics of the last decade.

Антикризисное управление отечественными предприятиями в условиях неопределенности

The article is devoted to the study of issues of anti-crisis management of domestic enterprises in conditions of uncertainty caused by the coronavirus pandemic and economic sanctions. The study examines the results of a survey of entrepreneurs in the Rostov region in 2021 and 2022 on the impact of the coronavirus pandemic and economic restrictions on their activities, as well as the anti-crisis measures that respondents took in the face of existing threats. Based on the survey results, a conceptual model of enterprise crisis management was formulated, within which measures of preventive, ongoing, reactive crisis management were proposed within the main areas of the enterprise’s activities related to marketing, sales, supply, production or provision of services, as well as finance.

Исследование влияния изменений налогового законодательства на поступление платежей в бюджет от предприятий сельскохозяйственной отрасли

Abstract. The purpose is to analyze changes in tax legislation adopted at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, economic sanctions of 2022 and to assess their impact on such economic indicators of agricultural enterprises as revenue, tax payments to the budget. Methods. Based on open data from Rosstat, the Federal Tax Service of the Russian Federation and the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation, statistical material has been collected and dynamic series for the period 2019–2022 have been compiled according to parameters characterizing the economic activity of agricultural enterprises. The changes in legislation in the taxation system adopted as short-term and long-term anti-crisis measures, economic support for business in the conditions of economic recovery after the pandemic and unprecedented sanctions imposed since 2022 have been studied and analyzed. The analysis of changes in the volume of production of established and discontinued agricultural enterprises and the dynamics of receipt of payments to the budget by type of budgets is carried out. Absolute and relative indicators characterizing the trend of changes over the analyzed period are calculated. Results. Based on the conducted research, conclusions are presented on the extent of the impact of changes made to the tax legislation on the work of agricultural enterprises. An assessment of the effectiveness of the measures taken to support enterprises to ensure tax revenues to the budget is given. Scientific novelty. In this study, for the first time, the relationship between changes in tax legislation and the amount of tax receipts in the conditions of economic sanctions and the weakening of the domestic market for agricultural producers is studied. Conclusions are formulated that allow to assess to some extent the quality of changes in the field of tax legislation, which are selected as priorities for reducing crisis phenomena for the period 2019–2022.

Russian consumer lending market in modern conditions

In the current conditions, the Russian financial market has demonstrated its stability and ability to promptly respond to the ongoing changes in the geopolitical sphere, while the banks that control more than 80 % of the country’s assets are under sanctions. The article considers and analyzes the Russian consumer lending market in modern conditions. It reviews the crisis periods of the Russian financial market from 2014 to 2023 and the anti-crisis measures of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the domestic consumer credit market in the current realities, and loans restructuring to individuals under sanctions pressure. The purpose of the study is to determine main trends in the consumer credit market development based on the analysis of the Russian consumer credit market under sanctions pressure. The object of the study is the domestic consumer credit market in modern conditions. The subject of the study is trends in the Russian consumer credit market development under sanctions pressure. The sources of information were analytical materials and statistical reporting data of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, laws and regulations, domestic and foreign scientific literature, and analytical and reference online resources.

Проблемы антикризисного управления компанией спортивной индустрии: экономические и правовые аспекты

This research seeks to address the developing anticrisis measures for a company in sport industry. Conclusions are based on the analysis of external macro-environment, market condi-tions, product portfolio and internal environment and the main output of this analysis is the ne-cessity to change the primary market and the product. On the basis of the policy measures, ob-tained from SWOT analysis, we have drawn up three-layer Memorandum of strategies, that provides three scenarios of crisis development.

Features of the development of the Russian banking system in 1996-1999.

This work is devoted to the crisis quadrennial of 1996-1999 in the history of Russia and the relationship with the changes that have occurred in the Russian banking system. The author identifies two stages in the development of domestic banking: its formation in 1991-1995, which ended with the exit from the August crisis of 1995, which showed that the banking system has not yet adapted to the requirements of market reality. The second stage was the crisis four–year period of 1996-1999, the peak of which was the default and devaluation of the ruble, as a result of which the main activity of banks turned from participating in a speculative game to working with the real sector of the economy and the population. As part of the study of the second period, the author, among other things, considers the issue of anti-crisis measures taken by the Government of the Russian Federation. The author analyzes a large layer of sources and bibliographies, actually building a chronology of the development of the banking sector in Russia in 1996-1999. The novelty of this work consists in the fact that until now there are practically no generalizing historical works about the history of the banking system of Russia in the Russian historiography. The author comes to the following key conclusions: as a result of the 1998 crisis, in which there was a collapse of government securities, which are the basis of both speculative activities of credit institutions and collateral for their resource base, the banking community began to focus mainly on working with the real sector of the economy and the needs of the population. During the period under review, a reform of the banking system was carried out, including the establishment of a set of strict banking standards and reporting that serve to increase the reliability of credit institutions and the possibilities of effective regulation of their activities, and the elimination of the technical backlog of the Central Bank in the automation of control and payment spheres was carried out.

ОРГАНІЗАЦІЯ КОНТРОЛЮ ДЕБІТОРСЬКОЇ ЗАБОРГОВАНОСТІ АВІАЦІЙНИХ ПІДПРИЄМСТВ В УМОВАХ АНТИКРИЗОВОГО УПРАВЛІННЯ

The operating checking system does not provide sufficient information for determination of anti-crisis management measures and absence of structured and clearness in organization of control results in the biased idea about the state of debt and absence of effective terms of work with debtors, that assists the increase of hopeless debt, unstable financial state and loss of solvency of aviation enterprises. Thus, there is a requirement in the improvement of organization the internal control of account receivable and improvement of anti-crisis management measures in relation to it. A research aim is an improvement of organization the control of aviation enterprise account receivable and determination of its influence on measures of anti-crisis management. Methodological basis of research became the methods of dialectics, methods and principles of scientific cognition, instruments of economic analysis in relation to forming of certain methodologies of realization of control of account receivable and its intercommunication with anti-crisis management, that allow to accept correct administrative decisions in war and post-war periods with the aim of proceeding in potential of enterprises aviation to industry. The basic hypothesis of research became the supposition in relation to the possible providing of financial firmness of aviation enterprises by the improvement of organization of internal control of account receivable and creation of objective base for the acceptance of correct decisions from anti-crisis management. Exposition of basic material. In the article the state of organization the control of account receivable is investigational among the enterprises of aviation industry, the basic tendencies of changes are certain, organization of control the account receivable is improved, importance of the worked out measures is reasonable, its connection is marked with anti-crisis management and necessity of concordance its processes with control of account receivable. Originality and practical meaningfulness are confirmed by the offered measures in relation to the improvement of organization the control of account receivable, by its adaptation within the framework of activity of enterprises of aviation industry and its intercommunication with the processes of anti-crisis management. Conclusions and prospects of further researches. It is well-proven that the process of organization the control of account receivable appropriately to carry out, going out ranging of debtors after its solvency. A report is offered after the basic structural elements of control of account receivable and clear and structured organization of internal control is given, that allows positively influencing on forming of anti-crisis measures. Further researches will be sent to adaptation offered approach near organization of internal control of account receivable of enterprises of national economy recognition political and economic changes and state of environment of subjects of business activity according to the carried out measures of anti-crisis

Судебная власть в системе защиты частных и публичных прав в условиях реализации антикризисных мер

The ways of improving the civil procedural and arbitration procedural legislation in order to improve the anti-crisis measures taken by the state are considered. It is proposed to exclude the possibility of both extrajudicial and judicial reconciliation of the parties to public law conflicts. It is shown that the mandatory pre-trial (claim) procedure for the settlement of civil disputes needs regulatory regulation and the consolidation of clear criteria for determining the proper fulfillment of the obligation to resolve the dispute. It is recommended to fix the presence of a notarized mediation agreement as a basis for refusing to accept a statement of claim. The legal uncertainty of the category “economic activity” is noted, which negatively affects the delimitation of the competence of courts of general jurisdiction and arbitration courts. It is proposed to strengthen the functions of the prosecutor in arbitration proceedings.

Risk and Sustainable tourism resilience in the Post Economic Crisis and COVID-19 pandemic period

The study aims to explore the resilience and adaptation of the tourism sector during economic and health crises, with a focus on specific events and their impact. The main objective is to contribute with valuable insights to the ongoing discourse on crisis management and sustainable practices within the tourism industry. Thus, it presents the dynamics of the tourism sector's resilience and adaptability amidst challenges, spotlighting the repercussions of the 2008–2012 economic crisis and the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic. Through a theoretical analysis of tourism risk, the research asserts the industry's susceptibility to exogenous hazards, emphasizing the multi-level risks spanning from individual businesses to the broader tourism landscape. The study shows the distinct characteristics that differentiate the 2008–2012 economic-financial crisis, highlighting globalization's intricate interdependencies, and the consequential impact on public finances. Amidst these challenges, the tourism sector faced a notable reduction in tourist numbers, nights spent in accommodations, and a fluctuating percentage of international tourists. However, a detailed examination reveals the industry's resilience strategies during the economic crisis, as tourists, while adjusting behaviour, continued to engage in travel with altered preferences, prompting the sector to adapt and survive. Shifting focus to the COVID-19 pandemic, the study unfolds a sector witnessing unprecedented challenges ranging from business closures and mass unemployment to financial losses. The global decrease in tourist arrivals echoes the profound impact of travel restrictions and the obligatory vaccination certificate. Analyzing the resilience of the tourism sector during the pandemic, the study explores the aftermath of decreased visitor numbers, a substantial hit to the sector's economic contribution, and the liquidation of numerous small and medium-sized enterprises. The article also sheds light on anti-crisis measures and strategies adopted during the pandemic, including EU funding initiatives and policy recommendations. Throughout, the study implicitly underlines the importance of adaptive strategies and policy interventions for sustained resilience in the tourism sector, providing valuable insights for policymakers, industry practitioners, and researchers dealing with challenges imposed by economic and health crises.

Economic analysis and control of crisis phenomena in the activities of enterprises

The article analyzes the essence of crisis phenomena and the causes of their occurrence in the activity of the enterprise. In the activity of anyone enterprise there are quite a few reasons that can lead to a crisis situation, in the scientific literature there are external and internal factors that can cause a crisis situation that have a mutual impact. The emergence of crisis situations in the enterprise is an inevitable stage in the life cycle. In order to avoid excessively negative consequences of the crisis, the company needs to carry out early diagnosis of the possibility of crisis situations and, if necessary, to introduce a set of measures aimed at preventing or countering the crisis. In order to early detection of a crisis situation or the probability of its occurrence, it is necessary to systematically diagnose the financial security of the enterprise, which involves the implementation of express diagnostics, complex analysis and fundamental diagnostics. The article provides an indicative list of indicators for the implementation of express diagnostics of the financial and economic state of the enterprise, including: indicators of own sources of formation of financial resources and financial stability; indicators of liquidity and payment and settlement discipline; indicators of the state of fixed assets; performance indicators of economic activity and management of the enterprise. The list of these indicators is not exhaustive, because in each case the specifics of the industry, the market and the enterprise itself should be taken into account. Three main stages of the crisis development at the enterprise are considered: hidden crisis (efficiency crisis, strategy crisis), solvency crisis (performance crisis), threat of bankruptcy (liquidity crisis). The main manifestations of crisis situations at the enterprise at each stage and the main mistakes that management makes in an attempt to counteract the crisis are determined. The main tools for the development and application of anti-crisis measures have been identified. At any stage of the crisis, subject to the introduction of an effective marketing strategy, effective tools of crisis management and the sufficiency of financial resources, it is possible to restore the normal rhythm of the enterprise and strengthen market positions. The experience of well-known companies that have received a useful effect from the crisis situation is considered. The effectiveness of the anti-crisis management system at the enterprise is achieved subject to the flexibility and adaptability of the management mechanism, the ability to diversify and rapid situational response, the ability to effectively use the potential of the enterprise and the introduction of informal management methods. The article considers tendencies of development of Ukrainian enterprises in conditions of crisis caused by the war. In the context of economic sectors, the main obstacles in the development of enterprises are outlined. The analysis of dynamics of development of the existing business and the beginning of a new one (by sectors of the economy and by regions) is carried out.

Justification of anti-crisis measures in the management of dairy cattle breeding based on mathematical modeling

Milk and dairy products occupy a significant share in the human diet. Every year the demand for it increases, and the current production is unable to satisfy it. There is a need to develop a set of measures to improve dairy cattle breeding and aimed at maintaining the food security of the region as a whole. Thus, the purpose of the research is to develop a methodology for the design and substantiation of anti-crisis measures in dairy cattle breeding in the region based on the resources of the state program. In connection with this goal, the article discusses the contribution of scientists to the problems of anti-crisis management and increasing the efficiency of dairy cattle breeding. The role of state regulation of the market for dairy products of the Smolensk region is substantiated on the basis of data obtained as a result of a computer experiment, set on a partial equilibrium model. A systematic approach was used to develop and substantiate measures aimed at overcoming the crisis in dairy farming. An assessment is made of the feasibility of applying the system modeling methodology to coordinate the investment plan of an organization with the sectoral anti-crisis program on the example of two agricultural organizations. Projects for solving the problems of releasing land and labor resources that have arisen as a result of optimizing the structure of production are substantiated. In conclusion, the scope of application of the presented methodology and further directions of its development are considered.

Особливості побудови індексу циклічного ризику з використанням фільтра Ходріка – Прескотта для моніторингу та управління банківськими ризиками

The article analyzes the impact of cyclical financial risks on the economy of Ukraine using the cyclical risk index. The index is designed to monitor the current level of cyclical risks, as well as possible accumulation in the future. Timely identification of risks with the help of an innovative tool gives the regulator enough time to react and implement anti-crisis measures. In addition, the methodology of index evaluation allows you to visualize not only the index, but also its components, which facilitates the interpretation of the used tool. The dynamics of cyclical risks during economic and financial crises is considered and the importance of their analysis for macroprudential policy is noted. The assessment of the cyclical risk index was carried out using the Hodrick – Prescott filter using indicators reflecting new lending, lending volumes, as well as the cost of lending. The indicators taken into account for the assessment of the index are used separately for the sector of households and non-financial corporations. The results of the analysis showed that after the crisis of 2008–2009, the index remained elevated until the next crisis in 2014, with the gap between non-financial corporations lending to GDP remaining positive. However, before the crisis of 2014–2016, there has been an expansion of cyclical financial risks. During 2017–2023, Ukraine was facing two crises: an economic one caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and a political one related to the russian invasion. The Financial Cycle Index did not predict the accumulation of cyclical systemic risks before these crises, but indicated an increase in risks since 2019. After the russian invasion Ukrainian economy suffered a sharp downturn, but the banking system withstood the test, providing liquidity and continuing lending operations. In general, the results indicate the need for an individual approach to the analysis and management of cyclical financial risks, taking into account the specifics of each country, its context, and the particularities of the financial sector.