Anomalous Temperatures Research Articles

The Influence of Soil Moisture on the Historic 2021 Pacific Northwest Heatwave

Abstract During late June 2021, a record-breaking heatwave impacted western North America, with all-time high temperatures reported across Washington, Oregon, British Columbia, and Alberta. The heatwave was forced by a highly anomalous upper-level ridge, strong synoptic-scale subsidence, and downslope flow resulting in lower-tropospheric adiabatic warming. This study examines the impact of antecedent soil moisture on this extreme heat event. During the cool season of 2020/21, precipitation over the Pacific Northwest was above or near normal, followed by a dry spring that desiccated soils to 50%–75% of normal moisture content by early June. Low surface soil moisture affects the surface energy balance by altering the partitioning between sensible and latent heat fluxes, resulting in warmer temperatures. Using numerical model simulations of the heatwave, this study demonstrates that surface air temperatures were warmed by an average of 0.48°C as a result of dry soil moisture conditions, compared to a high-temperature anomaly of 10°–20°C during the event. Air temperatures over eastern Washington and southern British Columbia were most sensitive to soil moisture anomalies, with 0000 UTC temperature anomalies ranging from 1.2° to 2.2°C. Trajectory analysis indicated that rapid subsidence of elevated parcels prevented air parcels from being affected by surface heat fluxes over a prolonged period of time, resulting in a relatively small temperature sensitivity to soil moisture. Changes to soil moisture also altered regional pressure, low-level wind, and geopotential heights, as well as modified the marine air intrusion along the Pacific coast of Washington and Oregon. Significance Statement The record-breaking western North American heatwave of late June 2021 was preceded by below-normal soil moisture over the region. This study evaluates the role of soil moisture on the 2021 heatwave, demonstrating that the anomalous temperatures during this extreme event were not significantly increased by below-normal soil moisture.

Marine strategy framework for detecting mass mortality: From local surveys to monitoring improvements in the coralligenous habitat

Mediterranean coralligenous assemblages are threatened by the effects of climate change and human activities that have led to mass mortality events (MMEs) in recent decades. The ecological roles of this habitat and the possible consequences of its loss have necessitated the scientific analysis of MMEs on a Mediterranean regional scale, highlighting the need of new standardized monitoring and data collection tools across the basin. In September 2021, during the monitoring activities of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) for the coralligenous habitat of the Egadi Islands Marine Protected Area (MPA), an MME of the red gorgonian Paramuricea clavata was recorded. Five of the six surveyed sites revealed a high degree of impact, with mortality values ranging from 46.9% in the least affected site to 100% in the most affected. The observed MME occurred during a prolonged period of anomalous warmer sea temperatures down to 60 m in depth. By enhancing the MSFD protocols for coralligenous habitat with the addition of a series of biotic/abiotic variables (e.g., temperature, pH and mucilaginous bloom) and methodologies (e.g., scuba survey and citizen science activities) to evaluate and monitor Good Environment Status (GES), we propose to implement a monitoring and data collection system which is able to provide essential information about MMEs. This multiple shared surveillance tool would allow the tracking of MME events in the Mediterranean region, as well as the planning of mitigation and/or restoration strategies for these vulnerable habitats on an inter-regional scale.

Combined oceanic and atmospheric forcing of the 2013/14 marine heatwave in the northeast Pacific

An unprecedented warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly event, namely, the Blob, occurred in the northeast Pacific during the winter (October–January) of 2013/2014, causing substantial economic and ecological impacts. Here, we explore the driving forces of the Blob from both atmospheric and oceanic perspectives and show that the Blob primarily resulted from weak wintertime cooling due to the reduced air-sea heat flux transfer from the ocean to the atmosphere and the reduced horizontal advection of cold water in the upper ocean. Both mechanisms were attributed to an anomalous high-pressure system over the study region. Specifically, the anomalous air-sea heat flux, which was dominated by turbulent heat flux anomalies, was mainly induced by the increased air temperature (i.e., with a contribution of approximately 70%) and the weakened wind speed associated with the high-pressure system. The reduced horizontal heat advection was mainly due to the weakened winds acting on the ocean temperature meridional gradient. Using a regional ocean numerical model with different experimental runs, we evaluated the contributions of air temperature and wind drivers to the Blob at both the surface and subsurface of the ocean. The Blob was absent when the model was forced by climatology-air-temperature. Both the SST and integrated ocean heat content (OHC, 0–150 m) decreased, and the mixed layer depth (MLD) was deeper than that in the control run forced by real atmospheric conditions. In the climatology-winds experiment, obvious warm anomalies still existed, which were similar to but weaker than the control run. The SST (OHC) and MLD values in the climatology-winds run were between those of the climatology-air-temperature run and the control run. Compared to former studies that attribute the formation of the Blob to an anomalous air-sea heat flux and horizontal advection mainly induced by reduced winds, our study demonstrates that anomalous warm air temperatures played a more important role in its formation.

Effect of the Atlantic Multiple Oscillation (AMO) on the Temperature Gradient on Libya

As a result of climate change causing a rise in global temperature, the oceans have had a share of this rise, which has consequences for decades. The study discussed the effect of the Atlantic Multiple Oscillation (AMO), which plays a major role in climate change and its impact on temperatures represented in its cold and warm phases, as in the cold phase indicating cooling of temperatures, especially in the year 1974, it was characterized by cooling, and in the warming phase it affects temperatures with a clear increase In the warm year of 2010, Weather data was used for ten stations over Libya, represented by temperatures and cold and warm AMO periods. The period of it cooling was characterized by anomalous temperatures reaching between -0.2 to -1.79 degrees Celsius, where it is more evident in the summer, and it warming period. It is show in the winter and reaches between 0.3 to 2.7 degrees Celsius, indicating a warm winter. Explaining the degree of correlation between AMO and the temperature of these stations was positive and in the summer during the cooling period 1971-1977, and less in the winter during the heating period 2010-2017.

Snowmelt-triggered debris flows in seasonal snowpacks

Snowmelt-triggered debris flows commonly occur in mountains. On 14 June 2019, a debris flow occurred on a steep, east-facing slope composed of unconsolidated glacial and periglacial sediments in Yosemite National Park. Originating as a shallow landslide, ~1,300m3 of ripe snow was instantaneously entrained into the debris flow carrying boulders, trees, and soil downslope. The forested area at the toe of the slope strained out debris leaving a muddy slurry to issue across Highway 120 during dewatering. We document this mass movement and assesses its initiation using local snowpack and meteorological data as well as a regional atmospheric reanalysis to examine synoptic conditions. A multiday warming trend and ripening of the snowpack occurred prior to the event as a 500 hPa ridge amplified over western North America leading to record warm 700 hPa temperatures. Anomalous temperatures and cloud cover prevented refreezing of the snowpack and accelerated its ripening with meltwater contributing to soil saturation. Similar conditions occurred during the catastrophic 1983 Slide Mountain debris flow, also hypothesized to be snowmelt initiated. With projected increases in heat waves, our findings can support natural hazard early warning systems in snow-dominated environments.

Formation of Tarim Large Igneous Province and Strengthened Lithosphere Revealed Through Machine Learning

AbstractEarth history is punctuated by voluminous magmatism and the formation of large igneous provinces (LIPs). Although anomalous mantle temperatures are known to be involved in many LIPs formation, the potentially critical role of fluids remains elusive. Here we apply machine learning methods (e.g., random forest, deep neural network, and support vector machines) to train models based on global datasets of basalts associated with different settings. The trained models predict that the basalts of Tarim LIP in northwestern China show a spatial decrease in their island arc affinity from northeast to southwest, which can be correlated to fluids released from earlier southward oceanic subduction. Temporally, the fluid activity declined from 290 Ma basalts to 270 Ma mafic dykes, suggesting that the fusible components in the mantle source were waning over time and ultimately a strengthened lithosphere was generated. Our study provides new insights into the crucial role of fluids in the generation of LIPs, particularly those related to ancient subducted slabs.

A large-scale view of marine heatwaves revealed by archetype analysis

Marine heatwaves can have disastrous impacts on ecosystems and marine industries. Given their potential consequences, it is important to understand how broad-scale climate variability influences the probability of localised extreme events. Here, we employ an advanced data-mining methodology, archetype analysis, to identify large scale patterns and teleconnections that lead to marine extremes in certain regions. This methodology is applied to the Australasian region, where it identifies instances of anomalous sea-surface temperatures, frequently associated with marine heatwaves, as well as the broadscale oceanic and atmospheric conditions associated with those extreme events. Additionally, we use archetype analysis to assess the ability of a low-resolution climate model to accurately represent the teleconnection patterns associated with extreme climate variability, and discuss the implications for the predictability of these impactful events.

Deaths attributable to anomalous temperature: A generalizable metric for the health impact of global warming

The U-shaped association between health outcomes and ambient temperatures has been extensively investigated. However, such analyses cannot fully estimate the mortality burden of climate change because the features of the association (e.g., minimum mortality temperature) vary with human adaptation; thus, they are not generalizable to different locations. In this study, we assumed that humans could adapt to regular temperature variations; and thus examined the all-cause mortality attributable to temperature anomaly (TA), an indicator widely utilized in climate science to measure irregular temperature fluctuations, across 115 cities in the United States (US). We first used quasi-Poisson regressions to obtain the city-specific TA-mortality associations, then used meta-regression to pool these city-specific estimates. Finally, we calculated the number of TA-related deaths using the uniform pooled association, then compared it to the estimates from city-specific associations, which had been controlled for adaptation. Meta-regression showed a U-shaped TA-mortality association, centered at a TA near 0. According to the pooled association, 0.579 % (95 % confidence interval [CI]: 0.465–0.681 %), 0.394 % (95 % CI: 0.332–0.451 %), and 0.185 % (95 % CI: 0.107–0.254 %) of all-cause deaths were attributable to all anomalous temperatures (TA ≠ 0), anomalous heat (TA > 0), and anomalous cold (TA < 0), respectively. At the city level, heat-related deaths estimated from the pooled association were in good agreement with heat-related deaths estimated from the city-specific associations (R2 = 0.84). However, the cold-related deaths estimated from the two methods showed a weaker correlation (R2 = 0.07). Our findings suggest that TA constitutes a generalizable indicator that can uniformly evaluate deaths attributable to anomalous heat in distinct geographical locations.

North Pacific and North Atlantic Jet Covariability and Its Relationship to Cool Season Temperature and Precipitation Extremes

Abstract Cool season (September–May) extreme temperature and precipitation events are frequently tied to surface cyclones and anticyclones, which are modulated on the synoptic scale by the state and evolution of the upper-tropospheric jet stream. This study adopts a jet-centered approach to classify the prevailing large-scale flow pattern into jet regimes based on the leading modes of variability of the North Pacific jet (NPJ) and the North Atlantic jet (NAJ), respectively. The characteristics of these joint NPJ–NAJ regimes are subsequently examined using composite analysis to identify large-scale flow environments conducive to the occurrence of anomalous temperatures and precipitation across North America. The analysis reveals that composite large-scale flow environments associated with each joint NPJ–NAJ regime can be approximated as a linear combination of the separate large-scale environments that characterize each NPJ regime and NAJ regime independently. Furthermore, knowledge of the joint NPJ–NAJ regime provides more precision regarding the relative likelihood and spatial coverage of anomalous temperatures and precipitation than would be obtained from consideration of the NPJ or NAJ regime in isolation. The frequencies of each joint NPJ–NAJ regime can also be modulated by the occurrence of sudden stratospheric warmings, with increased frequencies of an equatorward-shifted NAJ and a retracted NPJ during the 30-day period following a warming event. The results from the present study demonstrate that knowledge of the joint NPJ–NAJ regime exhibits the potential to inform forecasts of anomalous temperatures and precipitation at medium-range and subseasonal time scales. Significance Statement The development of cool season temperature and precipitation extremes are modulated by the state and evolution of the upper-tropospheric jet stream. Therefore, this study adopts a jet-centered approach to quantify the extent to which temperature and precipitation extremes over North America are related to the coevolution of the North Pacific and North Atlantic segments of the jet stream. The analysis demonstrates that the relative likelihood and spatial coverage of temperature and precipitation extremes varies significantly across North America based on the combined state of the North Pacific and North Atlantic jets. The jet-centered approach utilized in this study exhibits the potential to inform operational medium-range (6–10 day) and subseasonal forecasts of temperature and precipitation across North America.

Measurements of natural airflow within a Stevenson screen and its influence on air temperature and humidity records

Abstract. Climate science depends upon accurate measurements of air temperature and humidity, the majority of which are still derived from sensors exposed within passively ventilated louvred Stevenson-type thermometer screens. It is well-documented that, under certain circumstances, air temperatures measured within such screens can differ significantly from “true” air temperatures measured by other methods, such as aspirated sensors. Passively ventilated screens depend upon wind motion to provide ventilation within the screen and thus airflow over the sensors contained therein. Consequently, instances of anomalous temperatures occur most often during light winds when airflow through the screen is weakest, particularly when in combination with strong or low-angle incident solar radiation. Adequate ventilation is essential for reliable and consistent measurements of both air temperature and humidity, yet very few systematic comparisons to quantify relationships between external wind speed and airflow within a thermometer screen have been made. This paper addresses that gap by summarizing the results of a 3-month field experiment in which airflow within a UK-standard Stevenson screen was measured using a sensitive sonic anemometer and comparisons made with simultaneous wind speed and direction records from the same site. The mean in-screen ventilation rate was found to be 0.2 m s−1 (median 0.18 m s−1), well below the 1 m s−1 minimum assumed in meteorological and design standard references, and only about 7 % of the scalar mean wind speed at 10 m. The implications of low in-screen ventilation on the uncertainty of air temperature and humidity measurements from Stevenson-type thermometer screens are discussed, particularly those due to the differing response times of dry- and wet-bulb temperature sensors and ambiguity in the value of the psychrometric coefficient.

The genesis of Rare-alkali metal enrichment in the geothermal anomalies controlled by faults and magma along the northern Yadong-Gulu rift

Geothermal water from the hot springs in the Yadong-Gulu rift (YGR) of southern Tibet is extremely enriched in rare-alkali metal (RAM) elements; however, the mechanism of enrichment has long been debated. Much attention has been given to the deep melting magma of the YGR, but no direct evidence indicates whether and how it is connected to the RAM anomaly of hot springs. Determining the mechanism of RAM enrichment and its variations with the time and space of hot springs will contribute to the exploration of the hydrothermal metallogenic systems. This paper presents numerical hydrothermal numerical circulation models constrained by the geological data and the geophysical structure of the YGR. The results illustrate that the depths of boundary faults control the anomalous temperatures of hot springs. High-temperature springs (such as Yangbajing) could be induced by deep faults extending to the middle crust, whereas magma at a depth greater than 10 km has a limited effect on geothermal anomalies. Secondary faults define the extent of hydrothermal circulation and further determine the distribution of thermal anomalies across the rift. We simulate the enrichment and distribution of RAMs from a deep magma source. The pathways of RAMs from the source are consistent with hydrothermal circulation. RAM concentrations are lower in infiltrating groundwater and higher in ascending hot water. In general, deep faults control the hydrothermal circulation of geothermal groundwater. Deep faults and magma further constrain the distribution of RAM anomalies.

Trends in the Environmental Conditions, Climate Change and Human Health in the Southern Region of Ukraine

The Kherson, Mykolaiv, Odesa, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, being adjusted to the coasts of the Black and Azov Seas, are located in the steppe zone and constitute the southern region of Ukraine. The environmental parameters and health indicators of the population of the region are sensitive to the impact of natural (e.g., climate change) and anthropogenic processes. An analysis of satellite remote sensing data (NOAA NDVI time series) for the assessment of vegetation condition demonstrates an increase in frequency and duration of drought events in the region during the last few decades. It may have a relation to climate change processes. Data analysis of local meteorological observations over the past 100 years proved alterations of some bioclimatic indexes. The Equivalent Effective Temperature (IEET) increases in winter and summer (due to the increasing repeatability of high anomalous temperatures) and remains stable in spring and autumn seasons. The increasing number and variability of climate anomalies can provoke an increase in cardiovascular and some other diseases in the local population. At the same time, an analysis of the statistical data of health indicators of the population (such as morbidity of digestion, breathing, and the endocrine and circulatory systems) shows a tendency to decrease morbidity (contrary to the indicators of the mountain regions’ population, which have higher values of life expectancy). Interrelations between environmental, climate change, and population health indicators in the Black Sea region are being discussed.

Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the dengue transmission dynamics in the Metropolitan Region of Recife, Brazil.

ABSTRACTBackground: This research addresses two questions: (1) how El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects climate variability and how it influences dengue transmission in the Metropolitan Region of Recife (MRR), and (2) whether the epidemic in MRR municipalities has any connection and synchronicity. Methods: Wavelet analysis and cross-correlation were applied to characterize seasonality, multiyear cycles, and relative delays between the series. This study was developed into two distinct periods. Initially, we performed periodic dengue incidence and intercity epidemic synchronism analyses from 2001 to 2017. We then defined the period from 2001 to 2016 to analyze the periodicity of climatic variables and their coherence with dengue incidence. Results: Our results showed systematic cycles of 3-4 years with a recent shortening trend of 2-3 years. Climatic variability, such as positive anomalous temperatures and reduced rainfall due to changes in sea surface temperature (SST), is partially linked to the changing epidemiology of the disease, as this condition provides suitable environments for the Aedes aegypti lifecycle. Conclusion: ENSO may have influenced the dengue temporal patterns in the MRR, transiently reducing its main way of multiyear variability (3-4 years) to 2-3 years. Furthermore, when the epidemic coincided with El Niño years, it spread regionally and was highly synchronized.

Propagation of the 2014–2016 Northeast Pacific Marine Heatwave Through the Salish Sea

Effects and impacts of the Northeast Pacific marine heatwave of 2014–2016 on the inner coastal estuarine waters of the Salish Sea were examined using a combination of monitoring data and an established three-dimensional hydrodynamic and biogeochemical model of the region. The anomalous high temperatures reached the U.S. Pacific Northwest continental shelf toward the end of 2014 and primarily entered the Salish Sea waters through an existing strong estuarine exchange. Elevated temperatures up to + 2.3°C were observed at the monitoring stations throughout 2015 and 2016 relative to 2013 before dissipating in 2017. The hydrodynamic and biogeochemical responses to this circulating high-temperature event were examined using the Salish Sea Model over a 5-year window from 2013 to 2017. Responses of conventional water-quality indicator variables, such as temperature and salinity, nutrients and phytoplankton, zooplankton, dissolved oxygen, and pH, were evaluated relative to a baseline without the marine heatwave forcing. The simulation results relative to 2014 show an increase in biological activity (+14%, and 6% Δ phytoplankton biomass, respectively) during the peak heatwave year 2015 and 2016 propagating toward higher zooplankton biomass (+14%, +18% Δ mesozooplankton biomass). However, sensitivity tests show that this increase was a direct result of higher freshwater and associated nutrient loads accompanied by stronger estuarine exchange with the Pacific Ocean rather than warming due to the heatwave. Strong vertical circulation and mixing provided mitigation with only ≈+0.6°C domain-wide annual average temperature increase within Salish Sea, and served as a physical buffer to keep waters cooler relative to the continental shelf during the marine heatwave.

Peruvian Fur Seals as Archivists of El Niño Southern Oscillation Effects

Peru’s coastal waters are characterized by significant environmental fluctuation due to periodic El Niño- La Niña- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. This variability results in ecosystem-wide food web changes which are reflected in the tissues of the Peruvian fur seal (Arctocephalus australis). Stable isotope ratios (δ13C and δ15N) in Peruvian fur seal vibrissae (whiskers) are used to infer temporal primary production and dietary variations in individuals. Sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) recordings from the Niño 1+2 Index region captured corresponding ENSO conditions. Fluctuations in δ15N values were correlated to SSTA records, indicating that ENSO conditions likely impact the diet of these apex predators over time. Anomalous warm phase temperatures corresponded to decreased δ15N values, whereas cold phase anomalous conditions corresponded to increased δ15N values, potentially from upwelled, nutrient-rich water. Vibrissae δ13C values revealed general stability from 2004 to 2012, a moderate decline during 2013 (La Niña conditions) followed by a period of increased values concurrent with the 2014–2016 El Niño event. Both δ13C and δ15N values were inversely correlated to each other during the strongest El Niño Southern Oscillation event on record (2014–2016), possibly indicating a decline in production leading to an increase in food web complexity. Lower δ13C and δ15N values were exhibited in female compared to male fur seal vibrissae. Findings suggest ENSO conditions influence resource availability, possibly eliciting changes in pinniped foraging behavior as well as food web of the endangered Peruvian fur seal.

Widespread bleaching in the One Tree Island lagoon (Southern Great Barrier Reef) during record-breaking temperatures in 2020.

The global marine environment has been impacted significantly by climate change. Ocean temperatures are rising, and the frequency, duration and intensity of marine heatwaves are increasing, particularly affecting coral reefs. Coral bleaching events are becoming more common, with less recovery time between events. Anomalous temperatures at the start of 2020 caused widespread bleaching across the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), extending to southern, previously less affected reefs such as One Tree Island. Here, nine video transects were conducted at One Tree Island, in the Capricorn Bunker Group, and analysed for community composition and diversity, and the extent of bleaching across taxa. Average live hard coral cover across the area was 11.62%, and almost half of this was identified as severely bleached. This bleaching event is concerning as it occurred in an area previously considered a potential refuge for corals and associated fauna from the risks of climate warming. Due to the global impacts of COVID-19 during 2020, this report provides one of potentially few monitoring efforts of coral bleaching.Supplementary informationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10661-021-09330-5.

Non-linearity in the pathway of El Niño-Southern Oscillation to the tropical North Atlantic

AbstractEl Niño-Southern Oscillation can influence the Tropical North Atlantic (TNA), leading to anomalous sea surface temperatures (SST) at a lag of several months. Several mechanisms have been proposed to explain this teleconnection. These mechanisms include both tropical and extratropical pathways, contributing to anomalous trade winds and static stability over the TNA region. The TNA SST response to ENSO has been suggested to be nonlinear. Yet the overall linearity of the ENSO-TNA teleconnection via the two pathways remains unclear. Here we use reanalysis data to confirm that the SST anomaly (SSTA) in the TNA is nonlinear with respect to the strength of the SST forcing in the tropical Pacific, as further increases in El Niño magnitudes cease to create further increases of the TNA SSTA. We further show that the tropical pathway is more linear than the extratropical pathway by sub-dividing the inter-basin connection into extratropical and tropical pathways. This is confirmed by a climate model participating in the CMIP5. The extratropical pathway is modulated by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the location of the SSTA in the Pacific, but this modulation insufficiently explains the nonlinearity in TNA SSTA. As neither extratropical nor tropical pathways can explain the nonlinearity, this suggests that external factors are at play. Further analysis shows that the TNA SSTA is highly influenced by the preconditioning of the tropical Atlantic SST. This preconditioning is found to be associated with the NAO through SST-tripole patterns.

Hot and cold flavors of southern California\u2019s Santa Ana winds: their causes, trends, and links with wildfire

Santa Ana winds (SAWs) are associated with anomalous temperatures in coastal Southern California (SoCal). As dry air flows over SoCal’s coastal ranges on its way from the elevated Great Basin down to sea level, all SAWs warm adiabatically. Many but not all SAWs produce coastal heat events. The strongest regionally averaged SAWs tend to be cold. In fact, some of the hottest and coldest observed temperatures in coastal SoCal are linked to SAWs. We show that hot and cold SAWs are produced by distinct synoptic dynamics. High-amplitude anticyclonic flow around a blocking high pressure aloft anchored at the California coast produces hot SAWs. Cold SAWs result from anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking over the northwestern U.S. Hot SAWs are preceded by warming in the Great Basin and dry conditions across the Southwestern U.S. Precipitation over the Southwest, including SoCal, and snow accumulation in the Great Basin usually precede cold SAWs. Both SAW flavors, but especially the hot SAWs, yield low relative humidity at the coast. Although cold SAWs tend to be associated with the strongest winds, hot SAWs tend to last longer and preferentially favor wildfire growth. Historically, out of large (> 100 acres) SAW-spread wildfires, 90% were associated with hot SAWs, accounting for 95% of burned area. As health impacts of SAW-driven coastal fall, winter and spring heat waves and impacts of smoke from wildfires have been recently identified, our results have implications for designing early warning systems. The long-term warming trend in coastal temperatures associated with SAWs is focused on January–March, when hot and cold SAW frequency and temperature intensity have been increasing and decreasing, respectively, over our 71-year record.

Very rare heat extremes: quantifying and understanding using ensemble re-initialization

AbstractHeat waves such as the one in Europe 2003 have severe consequences for the economy, society, and ecosystems. It is unclear whether temperatures could have exceeded these anomalies even without further climate change. Developing storylines and quantifying highest possible temperature levels is challenging given the lack of long homogeneous time series and methodological framework to assess them. Here, we address this challenge by analysing summer temperatures in a nearly 5000-year pre-industrial climate model simulation, performed with the Community Earth System Model CESM1. To assess how anomalous temperatures could get, we compare storylines, generated by three different methods: (1) a return-level estimate, deduced from a generalized extreme value distribution, (2) a regression model, based on dynamic and thermodynamic heat wave drivers, and (3) a novel ensemble boosting method, generating large samples of re-initialized extreme heat waves in the long climate simulation.All methods provide consistent temperature estimates, suggesting that historical exceptional heat waves as in Chicago 1995, Europe 2003 and Russia 2010 could have been substantially exceeded even in the absence of further global warming. These estimated unseen heat waves are caused by the same drivers as moderate observed events, but with more anomalous patterns. Moreover, altered contributions of circulation and soil moisture to temperature anomalies include amplified feedbacks in the surface energy budget. The methodological framework of combining different storyline approaches of heat waves with magnitudes beyond the observational record may ultimately contribute to adaptation and to the stress testing of ecosystems or socio-economic systems to increase resilience to extreme climate stressors.

The observed influence of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation in the lower equatorial stratosphere on the East Asian winter monsoon during early boreal winter

AbstractThis study examines the relationship between the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the variability of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter. Here, we consider the effects of QBO winds in the lower stratosphere at 70 hPa. It is found that during the period of 1958–2019, the EAWM in the early winter months (November–December) is weaker in the easterly phase of the QBO (EQBO) than in the westerly phase of the QBO (WQBO). During EQBO, the northerly monsoon flow is weakened, and anomalous warm temperatures occur over East Asia. Moreover, components of the EAWM circulation system, including the Siberian High, Aleutian Low, East Asian trough, and East Asian jet stream, are all weakened. Our further analysis suggests that the QBO may influence the EAWM directly via a subtropical pathway. The EQBO tends to weaken the East Asian jet stream and shift it poleward, and the changes in the East Asian jet stream lead to a weakened EAWM. The activities of planetary waves are also changed in association with the QBO. Examinations of individual zonal wavenumbers (WNs) of planetary waves in the SLP field reveal that WN 1 is strengthened while WNs 2 and 3 are weakened during EQBO. Specifically, the anomalous WN 2 leads to weakening of the Siberian High, Aleutian Low, and East Asian trough, and the anomalous WN 3 reduces the pressure gradient between the East Asia landmass and the western Pacific. The changes in WNs 2 and 3 associated with the QBO play a dominant role in anomalous EAWM.