North Pacific and North Atlantic Jet Covariability and Its Relationship to Cool Season Temperature and Precipitation Extremes

Abstract

Abstract Cool season (September–May) extreme temperature and precipitation events are frequently tied to surface cyclones and anticyclones, which are modulated on the synoptic scale by the state and evolution of the upper-tropospheric jet stream. This study adopts a jet-centered approach to classify the prevailing large-scale flow pattern into jet regimes based on the leading modes of variability of the North Pacific jet (NPJ) and the North Atlantic jet (NAJ), respectively. The characteristics of these joint NPJ–NAJ regimes are subsequently examined using composite analysis to identify large-scale flow environments conducive to the occurrence of anomalous temperatures and precipitation across North America. The analysis reveals that composite large-scale flow environments associated with each joint NPJ–NAJ regime can be approximated as a linear combination of the separate large-scale environments that characterize each NPJ regime and NAJ regime independently. Furthermore, knowledge of the joint NPJ–NAJ regime provides more precision regarding the relative likelihood and spatial coverage of anomalous temperatures and precipitation than would be obtained from consideration of the NPJ or NAJ regime in isolation. The frequencies of each joint NPJ–NAJ regime can also be modulated by the occurrence of sudden stratospheric warmings, with increased frequencies of an equatorward-shifted NAJ and a retracted NPJ during the 30-day period following a warming event. The results from the present study demonstrate that knowledge of the joint NPJ–NAJ regime exhibits the potential to inform forecasts of anomalous temperatures and precipitation at medium-range and subseasonal time scales. Significance Statement The development of cool season temperature and precipitation extremes are modulated by the state and evolution of the upper-tropospheric jet stream. Therefore, this study adopts a jet-centered approach to quantify the extent to which temperature and precipitation extremes over North America are related to the coevolution of the North Pacific and North Atlantic segments of the jet stream. The analysis demonstrates that the relative likelihood and spatial coverage of temperature and precipitation extremes varies significantly across North America based on the combined state of the North Pacific and North Atlantic jets. The jet-centered approach utilized in this study exhibits the potential to inform operational medium-range (6–10 day) and subseasonal forecasts of temperature and precipitation across North America.