Annual Water Flow Research Articles

The impact of water scarcity on food, bioenergy and deforestation

We evaluate the impact of explicitly representing irrigated land and water scarcity in an economy‐wide model with and without a global carbon policy. The analysis develops supply functions of irrigable land from a water resource model for 282 river basins and applies them within a global economy‐wide model. The analysis reveals two key findings. First, explicitly representing irrigated land has a small impact on global food, bioenergy and deforestation outcomes. This is because this modification allows irrigated and rainfed land to expand in different proportions, which counters the effect of rising marginal costs for the expansion of irrigated land. Second, changes in water availability have small impacts on global food prices, bioenergy production, land use change and the overall economy, even with large‐scale (c. 150 exajoules) bioenergy production, due in part to endogenous irrigation and storage responses. However, representing water scarcity and changes in water availability can be important regionally, with relatively arid areas and/or areas with rapidly growing populations fully exhausting our estimated maximum irrigation capacity that allows for improved irrigation efficiency, lining of canals to limit water loss, and expanding storage to fully capture average annual water flows.

Mapping and Simulating Watershed Performances Based on GIS, Remote Sensing, and SWAT

This study has demonstrated that the combination of the geographic information systems (GIS), remote sensing (RS), and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has yield a comprehensive land use mapping and an assessment report of watershed performances. The Tapung watershed located in sub-watershed of Siak, Riau Province, Indonesia was appointed as a study area. This research identified that the existing land use condition (in 2012) was dominated by oil palm plantation (46%), agriculture (24%), and bushes including shrubs (8%), and a small number of forest area (7%). Thus, there was a need for conducting reforestation management programs within the watershed areas in order to maintain the watershed performances. However, based on this study the existing watershed performances (scenario 1) was in the state of moderate conditions as the percentage of the critical coverage areas (PLK) was small (10.41%), with the annual water flow coefficient or water run-off (KRA) was high (0.45). Hence, there was a need to reduce this run-off to become 0.40 and NS = 0.50 > 0.36. Hence, this study confirmed that the GIS, RS, and SWAT were capable for mapping and simulating the watershed performances systematically.

River linking in India: Downstream impacts on water discharge and suspended sediment transport to deltas

To expand agricultural production and address water scarcity, India is moving forward with the National River Linking Project (NRLP), which will connect 44 rivers via 9,600 km of canals. Here, we compile the first complete database of proposed NRLP dams, reservoirs and canals, including operating schedules for Himalayan infrastructure. We evaluate potential NRLP-derived changes to mean annual water discharge for 29 rivers and mean monthly water and sediment discharge for six rivers flowing to five major deltas. Sediment rating curves are used to quantify the impacts of changing water discharge within the rivers, and basin-wide trapping efficiency is established for new reservoirs. Given full implementation of the NRLP, we forecast reductions in annual suspended sediment transport to deltas of 40–85% (Mahanadi), 71–99% (Godavari) and 60–97% (Krishna) due to profound reservoir trapping and peak streamflow reductions. The Ganga before its confluence with the Brahmaputra is projected to experience a 39–75% reduction in annual suspended load. The Brahmaputra before its confluence with the Ganga is projected to experience a 9–25% reduction in suspended load, despite losing only 6% of its annual water flow. We calculate a projected corresponding aggradation decrease for the Ganga-Brahmaputra delta from 3.6 to 2.5 mm y–1, which is a large enough change to drive relative sea-level rise at the delta front. At the remaining four deltas, the NRLP will exacerbate current sediment starvation. We reconstruct the annual water transfer volume proposed for the NRLP to be 245 km3 y–1, higher than previous estimates due to the inclusion of along-canal usage. If completed, the NRLP will transform watershed boundaries, with more than half of the land in India contributing a portion of its runoff to a new mouth. These impacts may have profound environmental and public health implications, particularly in the context of future climate change.

ВИКОРИСТАННЯ РЕГІОНАЛЬНОЇ МОДЕЛІ КЛІМАТУ (REMO) ДЛЯ ОЦІНЮВАННЯ ТЕНДЕНЦІЙ КОЛИВАНЬ СТОКУ ВОДИ В БАСЕЙНІ ДНІСТРА

In order to confirm the possibility of predictive climate models using for the flow modelling in the Dniester river basin, the REMO climate model was verified. The verification was carried out on the basis of comparison of the simulated values and data from the hydrological observation network. The data of 28 hydrological stations on the Dniester and its tributaries were used. The reference period for testing the model was from 1971 to 2000. In total, 11 136 values of the average monthly and 917 values of the average annual water flow were used. According to the results of the conducted research, it was found that in most cases, the average annual flow value, taken from the model REMO, is lower, compared with the data from the hydrological observation network. The mean annual flow in the Dniester basin according to the hydrological observation network is 9.25 l/s∙km2, based on the model REMO – 8.27 l/s∙km2. In order to reduce the deviations of the predicted values, it was proposed to use a correction factor, it can reduce the percentage of deviations from the measured values by half. The assessment of the relationship between the data from the hydrological observation network and model values was carried out on the basis of determining the coefficient of pair correlation with the subsequent calculation of the regression equation. It was found that the correlation coefficient for a pair of data of the average long-term value – measured and model – is close to 1, which confirms the possibility of modelling not only for certain designated areas but also for individual hydrological stations. This research shows that the model REMO reliably predicts water flow changes in the Dniester river basin, taking into account the peculiarities of flow formation in different parts of the studied basin.

Assessing the effects of adaptation measures on optimal water resources allocation under varied water availability conditions

Human activities and climate change have altered the spatial and temporal distribution of water availability which is a principal prerequisite for allocation of different water resources. In order to quantify the impacts of climate change and human activities on water availability and optimal allocation of water resources, hydrological models and optimal water resource allocation models should be integrated. Given that increasing human water demand and varying water availability conditions necessitate adaptation measures, we propose a framework to assess the effects of these measures on optimal allocation of water resources. The proposed model and framework were applied to a case study of the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang River Basin in China. Two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP4.5) were employed to project future climate, and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model was used to simulate the variability of flows under historical (1956–2011) and future (2012–2099) conditions. The water availability determined by simulating flow with the VIC hydrological model was used to establish the optimal water resources allocation model. The allocation results were derived under an extremely dry year (with an annual average water flow frequency of 95%), a very dry year (with an annual average water flow frequency of 90%), a dry year (with an annual average water flow frequency of 75%), and a normal year (with an annual average water flow frequency of 50%) during historical and future periods. The results show that the total available water resources in the study area and the inflow of the Danjiangkou Reservoir will increase in the future. However, the uneven distribution of water availability will cause water shortage problems, especially in the boundary areas. The effects of adaptation measures, including water saving, and dynamic control of flood limiting water levels (FLWLs) for reservoir operation, were assessed and implemented to alleviate water shortages. The negative impacts from the South-to-North Water Transfer Project (Middle Route) in the mid-lower reaches of the Hanjiang River Basin can be avoided through the dynamic control of FLWLs in Danjiangkou Reservoir, under the historical and future RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios. However, the effects of adaptation measures are limited due to their own constraints, such as the characteristics of the reservoirs influencing the FLWLs. The utilization of storm water appears necessary to meet future water demand. Overall, the results indicate that the framework for assessing the effects of adaptation measures on water resources allocation might aid water resources management, not only in the study area but also in other places where water availability conditions vary due to climate change and human activities.

Уровенный режим озера Байкал: ретроспектива и современное состояние

The Lake Baikal history and the main problems of its regulation have been discussed. Analysis of the lake level alterations over the whole period of instrumental observations (1900–2016) has been carried out. A protracted low-water period was observed in the Baikal basin fromthe middle 90s of XX century. It was the longest for the whole period of instrumental observations. The extreme low-water situation in the lake basin in 2014–2015 has been studied. A statistically significant trend of the temperature increase and precipitations decrease has been stated. Atmospheric precipitations affect the river runoff many-year fluctuations more than other water balance elements. It was stated that the Lake Baikal level directly depends on the Selenga River water content. Minimal runoff during the low-water periods demonstrates a tendency to decrease, just like the annual runoff. It was a perpetual series of the reduced runoff that caused the minimal runoff negative trend, as a result of which the water resources inflow to the Lake Baikal was recordbreaking minimal over the previous years. The Selenga River basin runoff parameters spatial-temporal reconstruction was performed according the hydrometric posts and dendro/climatic stations data. The water runoff reconstruction statistic models show a good agreement between the Archangel fir ring amount of growth and annual water flow. The historic chronicles and moisture regimes have been chronologically compared on the basis of the obtained water regime reconstructions. The historic chronicles analysis is an indirect verification of the obtained time series related to the water flows in the Selenga River basin.

内蒙古某矿区水文地质特征及矿坑涌水量计算分析

根据水文地质条件，矿区分为基岩裂隙水区及第四系洪积层和冲积层孔隙水区两个水文地质区。矿区所在区域水文地质单元属阴山西部岩浆岩、变质岩裂隙较贫水区，山脉属阴山山系大青山山脉以北构造剥蚀的低山丘陵区，区内无常年性地表水流，间歇性河流因远离矿区又地势低洼，对矿床充水无影响。通过水均衡法及相关分析法计算确定矿区涌水量计算参数。计算预测结果与1987年勘察时预测结果比较接近，说明本次计算采用的公式比较合理，水文地质参数选取的比较准确，并符合实际，可以做为矿山今后开采的依据。 The mine area is divided into bedrock fissure water area and Quaternary alluvium and alluvial pore water area. The hydrogeological unit in the area where the mining area belongs is magmatic rock and no annual surface water flow in the western Yinshan. Because of the distance from the mining area and low- lying, there is not effect on water filling. The calculation parameters of the water inflow in the mining area are determined. The results are close to the prediction results in 1987, which indicates that the calculation formula is reasonable and can be used as the basis for the future mining.

Оценка изменения максимальных расходов воды реки Амур под влиянием Зейского водохранилища

Qualitative and quantitative estimation of the Zeya Reservoir upon the Amur River flood runoff downstream the Zeya River confluence point, prior the Bureya hydro plant construction has been done on the basis the Amur, Zeya, and Selemdzha rivers reconstructed and observed maximal annual water flow rows. Qualitative estimation has been done with the use of statistical methods, the linear trend method, the integral curve plotting method, and the analog method. To perform the quantitative estimation of water flow extreme (maximal) changes under the Zeya hydro power plant influence the method of comparison of different probability flows obtained for similar water content changes cycles corresponding to disturbed and undisturbed runoff periods has been used.

Using multiple watershed models to assess the water quality impacts of alternate land development scenarios for a small community

Chesapeake Bay, the largest estuary in North America, is impaired by excess nutrient discharges, especially from urban and agricultural land. Watershed simulation models have provided key insights to understanding land-to-water connections, but rarely are these models applied to guide local land management to explore and communicate uncertainty in the model predictions. In this study, three watershed simulation models; the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), the Generalized Watershed Loading Function (GWLF) model, and the Chesapeake Bay Program's Chesapeake Watershed Model (CBP-CWM) were implemented to predict water, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus discharges from small tributaries in the town of Queenstown, Maryland, USA. Based on our evaluation metrics, none of the models consistently provided better results. In general, there was a good agreement on annual average water flow between the SWAT and CBP-CWM models, and the GWLF and CBP-CWM models predicted similar TN and TP loads. Each model has strengths and weaknesses in flow and nutrient predictions, and predictions differed among models even when models were initialized with the same data. Using multiple models may enhance the quality of model predictions and the decision making process. However, it could also be the case that the complexity of implemented watershed models and resolution of our understanding currently are not yet suited to provide scientifically credible solutions.

Iron and Pyritization in Wetland Soils of the Florida Coastal Everglades

We explored environmental factors influencing soil pyrite formation within different wetland regions of Everglades National Park. Within the Shark River Slough (SRS) region, soils had higher organic matter (62.65 ± 1.88 %) and lower bulk density (0.19 ± 0.01 g cm−3) than soils within Taylor Slough (TS; 14.35 ± 0.82 % and 0.45 ± 0.01 g cm−3, respectively), Panhandle (Ph; 15.82 ± 1.37 % and 0.34 ± 0.009 g cm−3, respectively), and Florida Bay (FB; 5.63 ± 0.19 % and 0.73 ± 0.02 g cm−3, respectively) regions. Total reactive sulfide and extractable iron (Fe) generally were greatest in soils from the SRS region, and the degree of pyritization (DOP) was higher in soils from both SRS (0.62 ± 0.02) and FB (0.52 ± 0.03) regions relative to TS and Ph regions (0.30 ± 0.02 and 0.31 ± 0.02, respectively). Each region, however, had different potential limits to pyrite formation, with SRS being Fe and sulfide limited and FB being Fe and organic matter limited. Due to the calcium-rich soils of TS and Ph regions, DOP was relatively suppressed. Annual water flow volume was positively correlated with soil DOP. Soil DOP also varied in relation to distance from water management features and soil percent organic matter. We demonstrate the potential use of soil DOP as a proxy for soil oxidation state, thereby facilitating comparisons of wetland soils under different flooding regimes, e.g., spatially or between wet years versus dry years. Despite its low total abundance, Fe plays an important role in sulfur dynamics and other biogeochemical cycles that characterize wetland soils of the Florida coastal Everglades.

Assessment of groundwater impact on water quality in the built-up areas at the Lower Don

The impact is assessed that the groundwater flow from the built-up areas on the left bank of the Don River in the Rostov oblast produces on the chemical composition and quality of surface water in the lower river reaches. It is demonstrated that the total average annual groundwater flow from the built-up areas on the left river bank is very small and equals 0.002 km3/year on average or 0.01% of the average annual water flow in the estuarine outlet. Despite the rather high degree of contamination of groundwater and the high content of principal ions, this causes the insignificant impact of groundwater runoff on water quality in the Lower Don. The average total mass of substances that annually come from the left-bank urbanized areas in the groundwater flow is about 4.9 x 103 t or 0.04% of total mass of substances transported by the Don River to the Taganrog Bay.

Downscaling Aggregate Urban Metabolism Accounts to Local Districts

SummaryUrban metabolism accounts of total annual energy, water, and other resource flows are increasingly available for a variety of world cities. For local decision makers, however, it may be important to understand the variations of resource consumption within the city. Given the difficulty of gathering suburban resource consumption data for many cities, this article investigates the potential of statistical downscaling methods to estimate local resource consumption using socioeconomic or other data sources. We evaluate six classes of downscaling methods: ratio‐based normalization; linear regression (both internally and externally calibrated); linear regression with spatial autocorrelation; multilevel linear regression; and a basic Bayesian analysis. The methods were applied to domestic energy consumption in London, UK, and our results show that it is possible to downscale aggregate resource consumption to smaller geographies with an average absolute prediction error of around 20%; however, performance varies widely by method, geography size, and fuel type. We also show how mapping these results can quickly identify districts with noteworthy resource consumption profiles. Further work should explore the design of local data collection strategies to enhance these methods and apply the techniques to other urban resources such as water or waste.

Coevolution of volcanic catchments in Japan

Abstract. Present-day landscapes have evolved over time through interactions between the prevailing climates and geological settings. Understanding the linkage between spatial patterns of landforms, soils, and vegetation in landscapes and their hydrological response is critical to make quantitative predictions in ungaged basins. Catchment coevolution is a theoretical framework that seeks to formulate hypotheses about the mechanisms and conditions that determine the historical development of catchments and how such evolution affects their hydrological response. In this study, we selected 14 volcanic catchments of different ages (from 0.225 to 82.2 Ma) in Japan. We derived indices of landscape properties (drainage density and slope–area relationship) as well as hydrological response (annual water balance, baseflow index, and flow–duration curves) and examined their relation with catchment age and climate (through the aridity index). We found a significant correlation between drainage density and baseflow index with age, but not with climate. The intra-annual flow variability was also significantly related to catchments age. Younger catchments tended to have lower peak flows and higher low flows, while older catchments exhibited more flashy runoff. The decrease in baseflow with catchment age is consistent with the existing hypothesis that in volcanic landscapes the major flow pathways change over time from deep groundwater flow to shallow subsurface flow. The drainage density of our catchments decreased with age, contrary to previous findings in a set of similar, but younger volcanic catchments in the Oregon Cascades, in which drainage density increased with age. In that case, older catchments were thought to show more landscape incision due to increasing near-surface lateral flow paths. Our results suggests two competing hypotheses on the evolution of drainage density in mature catchments. One is that as catchments continue to age, the hydrologically active channels retreat because less recharge leads to lower average aquifer levels and less baseflow. The other hypothesis is that the active channels do not undergo much surface dissection after the catchments reach maturity.

Estimating snow water equivalent over long mountain transects using snowmobile-mounted ground-penetrating radar

The water balance in alpine watersheds is dominated by snowmelt, which provides infiltration, recharges aquifers, controls peak runoff, and is responsible for most of the annual water flow downstream. Accurate estimation of snow water equivalent (SWE) is necessary for runoff and flood estimation, but acquiring enough measurements is challenging due to the variability of snow accumulation, ablation, and redistribution at a range of scales in mountainous terrain. We have developed a method for imaging snow stratigraphy and estimating SWE over large distances from a ground-penetrating radar (GPR) system mounted on a snowmobile. We mounted commercial GPR systems (500 and 800 MHz) to the front of the snowmobile to provide maximum mobility and ensure that measurements were taken on pristine snow. Images showed detailed snow stratigraphy down to the ground surface over snow depths up to at least 8 m, enabling the elucidation of snow accumulation and redistribution processes. We estimated snow density (and thus SWE, assuming no liquid water) by measuring radar velocity of the snowpack through migration focusing analysis. Results from the Medicine Bow Mountains of southeast Wyoming showed that estimates of snow density from GPR ([Formula: see text]) were in good agreement with those from coincident snow cores ([Formula: see text]). Using this method, snow thickness, snow density, and SWE can be measured over large areas solely from rapidly acquired common-offset GPR profiles, without the need for common-midpoint acquisition or snow cores.

Accuracy of grid precipitation data for Brazil: application in river discharge modelling of the Tocantins catchment

AbstractHere, we compared grid precipitation data — Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and WATCH Forcing Data methodology applied to ERA‐Interim (WFDEI) data — with Brazilian Weather Bureau (INMET) and Brazilian Water Agency (ANA) rain gauge data (n = 2027) for the period 1980–2010 in order to evaluate which grid data set better represents precipitation, and is thus more suitable for hydrological modelling of Brazilian water resources. We found that WFDEI outperformed CFSR according to three statistical indicators. We then applied and interpolated a simple bias correction to further improve WFDEI data before we used these data to model river discharge of the Tocantins catchment with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Calibration (validation in parentheses; weighted averages of all gauges) had satisfactory statistical metrics: p‐factor = 0.52 (0.47); r‐factor = 0.84 (0.99); R2 = 0.78 (0.71); bR2 = 0.68 (0.47); NS = 0.70 (0.66); Pbias = −4.5 (4.0). Finally, the calibrated SWAT model was used to assess the spatial distribution of the catchment's water resources. Annual green water flow (evapotranspiration) increased from the south‐east (640–840 mm yr−1) to north‐west (1140–1440 mm) of the Tocantins catchment, while green water storage (soil water content) increased from south (330–1070 mm) to north (2180–3290 mm). Blue water (water yield) had a less clear pattern, with lower values in the south and the central borders of the catchment (20–560 mm) and higher values along the central axis and the north (920–1460 mm). Our analysis suggested that WFDEI was an accurate representation of Brazilian precipitation. For large catchments, we therefore recommend the use of WFDEI instead of sparse and often missing rain gauge data in modelling Brazilian water resources. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Sediment discharge of the Yellow River, China: Past, present and future—A synthesis

The Yellow River cut through Sanmenxia Gorge and discharged into the sea via the North China Plain in 150 ka BP; since then, around 86 000 × 108 t sediment has been transported passing Sanmenxia Gorge. Based on land use and land cover changes in Loess Plateau and other available evidence, an estimate of the Yellow River sediment budget is presented here: about 72% of the sedimentary material was trapped in the North China Plain and the remainder (i.e., 26%) escaped to the sea. At the present stage, < 0.2×108 t/a suspended sediment of the Yellow River enter the northern Yellow Sea. The transport pattern is determined mainly by the shelf current system. Annually 0.2×108–0.3×108 t of suspended particles are carried to the East China Sea; the materials are derived mainly from coastal and subaqueous delta erosion associated with the abandoned Yellow River on the Jiangsu coast. Since 1972, the lower Yellow River started to have a situation of continuous no-flow. During 1996–2000, the annual water flow and sediment discharge are only 19%, as compared with normal years (i.e., average for 1950–1979). In response to global warming and increase of water diversion from the Yellow River for industrial and urban use, the sediment flux of the Yellow River to the sea will most likely remain small in the next two to three decades.

Spatial distribution of sediments in Suchedniów reservoir / Rozkład osadów w zbiorniku Suchedniów

Abstract The paper presents measurements of the amount, spatial distribution, grain size structure, density and the content of organic matter in sediments of Suchedniów reservoir. After 33 years of exploitation, the primary volume of the reservoir decreased by 78 thousand m3. Catchment area covered in 45% by forests is 83 km2. Mean annual water flow is estimated at 0.63 m3·s-1. Primary volume of the reservoir was 303 thousand m3 and its surface area - 21.4 ha. The greatest width of the reservoir is 490 m, distance from the river inlet to the dam is 655 m and the length along assumed water course is 740 m. Mean and maximum depths are 1.42 and 4 m, respectively. The analyses of vertical and horizontal distribution of sediments revealed that in the deepest parts of the water body, where depth exceed 2.6 m, only 16% of sediment volume were deposited. In the inlet part of a relative volume of 0.2, 32% of sediment volume were deposited and in the outlet part - 16%. The reservoir accumulates material of a grain size &lt;1.0 mm whose density varies between 2586 and 2758 kg·m-3. Percent of organic parts in sediments ranged from 0.24 to 18.97%. The existing methods of description of sediment distribution in retention reservoirs do not allow for accurate predicting of this distribution. They do not account for many factors affecting the distribution of sediments in reservoirs and for the time of exploitation. None of the dimensionless curves of the Annandale’s nomograph [ANNANDALE 1984] describes the distribution of sediments in Suchedniów Reservoir. The curve closest to the actual distribution curve corresponds to the value dP/dx = 1.2 while for Suchedniów Reservoir dP/dx is 0.0014 (P - wetted perimeter of the reservoir’s cross section, x - distance from the dam). Sediments in vertical profiles have laminar structure and bottom material in layers largely differs in grain size and colour which is an evidence of different conditions of sedimentation in different hydrological periods and exploita

Errors in taking account of the runoff of the rivers with diurnal variations of the water level at the absence of increased-frequency observations

Estimated are additional errors in taking account of the river runoff during different phases of high water and snowmelt floods using the observational data from gaging stations at the absence of increased-frequency measurements of the water level (due to the lack or downtime of recorders). Described is a method for determination of these errors. Using the data collected on 118 gaging stations on 58 rivers in different regions of Russia and the former USSR for seven years of observations, determined are the possible additional errors of average daily, monthly and annual water flows of the rivers of different sizes as well as the total errors that take account of the additional errors.

36 year trends in dissolved organic carbon export from Finnish rivers to the Baltic Sea

Increasing dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations in lakes, rivers and streams in northern mid latitudes have been widely reported during the last two decades, but relatively few studies have dealt with trends in DOC export. We studied the export of DOC from Finnish rivers to the Baltic Sea between 1975 and 2010, and estimated trends in DOC fluxes (both flow normalised and non-normalised). The study encompassed the whole Finnish Baltic Sea catchment area (301,000km2) covering major land use patterns in the boreal zone. Finnish rivers exported annually over 900,000t DOC to the Baltic Sea, and the mean area specific export was 3.5t km−2. The highest export (7.3t km−2) was measured in peat dominated catchments, whereas catchments rich in lakes had the lowest export (2.2t km−2). Inter-annual variation in DOC export was high and controlled mainly by hydrology. There was no overall trend in the annual water flow, although winter flow increased in northern Finland over 36years. Despite the numerous studies showing increases in DOC concentrations in streams and rivers in the northern hemisphere, we could not find any evidence of increases in DOC export to the northern Baltic Sea from Finnish catchments since 1975.

The response of benthic macroinvertebrate communities to climate change: evidence from subtropical mountain streams in Central China

AbstractEcological effects of climate change on terrestrial and marine ecosystems are increasingly apparent but evidence from freshwater is scarce, particularly in Asia. Using data from two subtropical Central China streams, we predicted the changes of some benthic macroinvertebrate communities under various climatic scenarios. Our results show that the average annual air temperature, in the study watershed, increased significantly (P &lt; 0.05) by 0.6 °C over the last 30 years (1978–2007), whereas the average annual water flow declined by 30.9 m3 s–1. Based on the winter sampling of benthic macroinvertebrates at four stream locations over last six years, we observed that macroinvertebrate abundance and Margalef diversity dropped with increasing water temperatures or decreasing smoothed sea surface temperatures (SSST). The winter macroinvertebrate abundance and biodiversity declined by 11.1% and 6.8% for every 1 °C water temperature rise. In contrast, increases in future SSST by one unit would increase winter macroinvertebrate abundance and biodiversity by 38.2% and 16.0%, respectively. Although many dominant taxa were predicted to persist when water temperatures increase by 1 °C, several scarce taxa, e.g., Orthocladius clarkei and Hippeutis umbilicalis, could be at a level of potential local extinction. Our identification of these links, between climate change and stream macroinvertebrate communities, has wide implications for the conservation of mountain stream ecosystems in the upper Yangtze River under scenarios of climate change. (© 2012 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH &amp; Co. KGaA, Weinheim)