ВИКОРИСТАННЯ РЕГІОНАЛЬНОЇ МОДЕЛІ КЛІМАТУ (REMO) ДЛЯ ОЦІНЮВАННЯ ТЕНДЕНЦІЙ КОЛИВАНЬ СТОКУ ВОДИ В БАСЕЙНІ ДНІСТРА

Abstract

In order to confirm the possibility of predictive climate models using for the flow modelling in the Dniester river basin, the REMO climate model was verified. The verification was carried out on the basis of comparison of the simulated values and data from the hydrological observation network. The data of 28 hydrological stations on the Dniester and its tributaries were used. The reference period for testing the model was from 1971 to 2000. In total, 11 136 values of the average monthly and 917 values of the average annual water flow were used. According to the results of the conducted research, it was found that in most cases, the average annual flow value, taken from the model REMO, is lower, compared with the data from the hydrological observation network. The mean annual flow in the Dniester basin according to the hydrological observation network is 9.25 l/s∙km2, based on the model REMO – 8.27 l/s∙km2. In order to reduce the deviations of the predicted values, it was proposed to use a correction factor, it can reduce the percentage of deviations from the measured values by half. The assessment of the relationship between the data from the hydrological observation network and model values was carried out on the basis of determining the coefficient of pair correlation with the subsequent calculation of the regression equation. It was found that the correlation coefficient for a pair of data of the average long-term value – measured and model – is close to 1, which confirms the possibility of modelling not only for certain designated areas but also for individual hydrological stations. This research shows that the model REMO reliably predicts water flow changes in the Dniester river basin, taking into account the peculiarities of flow formation in different parts of the studied basin.