Analysis Of Land Use Change Research Articles

Opportunities and Challenges of UAV Application for Monitoring the Construction Progress and Updating the Geographic Database in Urban Area of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

Authorities of the Ho Chi Minh City have expressed an interest in developing application solutions of UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) that are able to monitor construction progress at different stages of any project; and to update cadastral maps for improving geospatial information for decision-making. This paper aims to describe new opportunities of using UAV in monitoring and mapping at Thu Duc district, and to address main challenges from different aspects and limitations that help engineers to improve the procedures and accuracy of UAV images processing. Some specific application cases focused on monitoring construction progress, cadastral mapping and updating the database are also introduced for understanding how UAV solutions can be applied as one tool to improve the analysis of land use change and infrastructure management in the urban area. In addition, the analysed results also shown how to develop the flight planning and the suitable Ground Control Points (GCPs) with challenges from different aspects in application solutions in capturing necessary data on monitoring construction progress and updating cadastral maps with large scale (1:200 and 1:500).

The Impact of Land-Use and Climate Change on Water and Sediment Yields in Batanghari Watershed, Sumatra, Indonesia

The Batanghari River flows from the province of West Sumatra into the West Coast of Jambi, with the main river extending up to 870 km. Also, the Batanghari watershed Land use changes have shown a decreasing forest cover and an increasing agricultural area. Therefore, this study aims to calculate the impact of land use and climate change on water and sediment yield using Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT) hydrological modeling. Land-use change analysis was performed with projections in 2040 while, near future and future climate projections under Representative Concentration Pathway (R.C.P.) 4.5 and 8.5 were used for global climate change scenarios. The results show a changing pattern of growing agricultural area and decreasing forest area in 1990, 1997, 2005, 2015, and 2040. SWAT hydrological model used for the simulation was calibrated automatically with SWAT-CUP and the results were validated on good criteria. The sensitivity analysis results showed that effective hydraulic conductivity in main channel alluvium (CH_K2) and Base flow alfa factor (Alfa_BF) formed the most sensitive parameters for discharge. Furthermore, the model simulation showed an increase in surface runoff and a decrease in lateral flow and base flow due to land-use changes, which increased sediment loading over time. The impact of climate change on water and sediment yield increased the average flow discharge ratio, resulting in more frequent droughts and floods events.

Analysis of land cover land use change in the greater Gaborone area of South Eastern Botswana

Changes in land cover land use (LCLU) have long been considered to be among the many factors responsible for global environmental challenges. This study focused on assessing LCLU changes in the Greater Gaborone area of South Eastern Botswana between 1988 and 2022. The study employed remote sensing (RS) and geographic information systems (GIS) tools for analyzing LCLU changes in the study area during the study period. Landsat images of 1988 and 2002 and Sentinel-2A images of 2022 were used to detect LCLU changes. Image classification was done using a Supervised classification approach based on a Maximum Likelihood Classifier. Six LCLU types such as water body, trees dominated, cropland, shrubland, bare land, and built-up, were identified in the area. Post Classification Comparison (PCC) approach was used to detect LCLU change during the study period. Shrubland class was found to be the dominant LCLU type in the study area. A significant gain was observed in the built-up class (75.12 km2), while significant losses were observed in shrubland (24.16 km2) and trees dominated (33.32 km2) classes in the entire study period. Given the rapid increase in built-up areas, this recommends that land managers and policymakers should invest in implementing sustainable land management interventions to prevent undesirable LCLU changes.

LANDSCAPE DYNAMICS IN THE SOMEȘ CORRIDOR. CASE STUDY: GURUSLĂU DEPRESSION (ROMANIA)

Changes in land use patterns induced by different agricultural practices are reflected territorially through transformations at the level of elementary landscape units, with an impact on territorial identity and cohesion. The aim of this study is to highlight the dynamics of the territorial structures in the post-communist period (1990-2018), diachronically reflected in the transformations of the landscape of the Guruslău Depression, using the landscape metrics. The main direction of the scientific research was based on the analysis of land use changes and the identification of the spatial elements of structural-landscape distinction with impact on land degradation process. The evaluation of the landscape dynamics in the current context uses several effective metrics and tools, which increasingly require the identification of interdisciplinary methods of analysis, with a decisive impact on territorial development. Besides, the present approach is also motivated by the increasing environmental impact of climate change. The methodology used in the present paper is based both on the geoprocessing of vector data using GIS tools and correlated spatial analysis, and on the identification of landscape types using a new process of reclassifying land use categories, according to a set of landscape definition variables. The results of the research highlighted both the particularities of landscape transformations that occurred in the reference interval, as well as the favourable conditions for addressing biocultural diversity, by identifying traditional agricultural practices and the resilience of geographical landscapes given the adaptation to changing development strategies. Meanwhile, by detecting the landscape structures affected by change, in correlation with the impact induced on the biodiversity of the territory, the present study has a wide applicability in the most appropriate implementation of local development policies, as well as in identifying the forms of sustainable valorisation of the landscape in the study area.

Land Planning, Agro-forest Systems, and Implications for Ecosystem Services: Insights from Northern Italy

Negative environmental changes generally addressed as ‘syndromes’ areevaluated in the context of Soil Degradation (SD) and interpreted by usinga ‘Land-Use/Land Cover Changes’ (LULCCs) framework in order to dis-entangle ‘past trajectories’, ‘present patterns’, and ‘future changes’. Thisapproach allows to discuss the potential impact on SD processes and itrepresents an informed basis for identifying measurable outcomes of SD.This study focuses on the case of Emilia Romagna, a region located inthe North of Italy with high-value added agricultural productions. A multi-temporal analysis of land-use changes between 1954 and 2008 has been proposed, discussing the evolution of associated SD syndromes in EmiliaRomagna. The contributing information have been used as a baseline forSustainable Land Management (SLM) strategies. This framework of analysisprovides useful tools to investigate and to monitor the effects of SD in theMediterranean basin where several regions underwent common developmentpatterns yelding global pathological symptoms of environmental degradation.

Linking Flood Risk Mitigation and Food Security: An Analysis of Land-Use Change in the Metropolitan Area of Rome

Land consumption and climate change have intensified natural disasters in urban areas. In response to these emergencies under the European 2030 Agenda, Sustainable Development Goals have been established to improve ecosystem protection and increase resilience and adaptation to natural disasters globally (Goal 13 “Climate action” and Goal 15 “Life on land”). In order to implement governance tools appropriately, it is necessary to know the relationships among the drivers, the changes in the state of urban ecosystems and agro-ecosystems, and the impact on the supply of goods and services at spatial and temporal scales. In this paper, Land-Use and Land-Cover Changes (LULCCs) in the metropolitan area of Rome have been investigated, with the purpose of detecting the synergistic variations in the supply of the flood mitigation and agricultural production ecosystem services (ES). The methodology is based on a GIS (Geographic Information System) analysis that identifies the transformation processes and permanencies related to land-cover. The variation in flood mitigation services was quantified through the use of the Urban Flood Risk Mitigation Model (UFRM) from the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs) suite, while the variation in agricultural production through productivity coefficients was associated with changes in land-uses. Finally, an analysis of LULC-induced synergies and trade-offs between the two services was performed. The results show a net negative change in ES supply, caused mainly by urbanization at the expense of agricultural land. This decrease in ES supply is not offset by other LULCC transitions. In addition, the analysis of synergies and trade-offs between flood mitigation ES and agricultural production ES (in arable land, orchards, vineyards, and olive groves) shows that the reduction of agricultural land negatively affects both ES. The innovative contribution of this paper lies in setting an integrated methodology that is able to investigate how LULCC influences both hydraulic safety and food security. Findings can be useful to support planning of enhancing the role of agriculture in metropolitan areas.

STUDY AND ANALYSIS OF LAND USE/LAND COVER CHANGES OF JODHPUR CITY AND ITS IMPACTS ON ECONOMY AND ENVIRONMENT (1990-2022)

Urban land use change is a major issue globally. Land cover is a cover that covers any surface and the changes described include urban area land, water body, residential, forest land wasteland, agriculture, and recreation etc. The development of the built-up area separates the city limits.' (PA Khadke & RU Kharat 2017) Land use change plays a major role in the developmental activity of a developing country. Due to the rapid development of urbanization and the dramatically increasing population, fertile agricultural land has been converted into built-up area in relation to the need for housing and the need for infrastructure. The extent of open space and surface water bodies have also been encroached upon. Land use is derived from the human use of land and can be mainly classified into residential, agricultural, commercial use, industrial, etc. Land use and land cover changes are caused by socio-economic and natural factors. The increase in population as well as migration of people from rural to urban is the most important reason for land use change. (P. Sangardas, S. Ishwari, 2019). In the presented research paper, the study and analysis of land use change of Jodhpur city and its impact on economy and environment is to be done.

A Simulation Analysis of Land Use Changes in the Yarlung Zangbo River and Its Two Tributaries of Tibet Using the Markov–PLUS Model

Since the beginning of the 21st century, the economic development of Tibet has been accelerating. The Yarlung Zangbo River and its two tributaries, as the region with the largest population concentration and the fastest economic development in Tibet, has been under the dual influence of global climate warming and the intensification of human social and economic activities, where a high number of land types, such as woodland, grassland, and water areas, have been transformed into other land types, and the residential area has expanded in a disorderly manner. The ability to maintain sustainable regional development has been severely damaged. To meet the requirements of different stages of social and economic development and regional social development goals, in this study, we use the Yarlung Zangbo River and its two tributaries of Tibet as an example. Based on the Markov–PLUS model and considering the natural, social, and cultural conditions of the basin, combined with the multi-landscape simulation of land use, we predict the land use situation of the Yarlung Zangbo River and its two tributaries of Tibet in 2038. We observed the following: (i) the Markov–PLUS model has a high simulation accuracy for different land types in the study area, and can sufficiently simulate the changes in different land types in the Yarlung Zangbo River and its two tributaries of Tibet; and (ii) the simulation settings of the three landscapes basically meet the different development modes and paths of the basin in the future. There were obvious differences in the structure of land use in the basin, among which there were obvious differences, especially agricultural land and water areas. Use of the Markov–PLUS model can provide data support and references for the implementation in terms of ecological scrutiny, landscape planning, and early warnings for food production consumption security and unreasonable land use, in order to achieve the sustainable development of the basin.

Analysis of Land Use Change in Langsa City, Aceh Province in 2013 – 2021

Langsa City is a city on the east coast of Aceh that has the fastest growth compared to the surrounding area. However, this has a significant impact on land conversion which reduces environmental quality. Analysis of changes in land use in Langsa City needs to be carried out as a basis for determining development policies. This study aims to analyze changes in land use in Langsa City from 2013 – 2021. The data used in this study are Landsat 8 OLI-TIRS imagery in 2013, 2017, and 2021. These images were analyzed using a supervised classification technique based on band combinations for each land use. The classified land uses are settlements, paddy fields, ponds, mangrove forests, and mixed vegetation. The results showed that there was a significant increase in the settlement area in the center of Langsa City. Meanwhile, other land uses have changed but not consistently. This study concludes that a significant increase in settlement area is due to rapid population growth. The increase in settlement area also has an impact on changes in other types of land use. The researcher recommends that a population growth study be carried out as a basis for determining regional spatial planning.

SHIFTING LANDSCAPES: UNRAVELING TIRUPATI'S TRANSFORMATION THROUGH SATELLITE INSIGHTS

The transformation of Tirupati's landscape over the past two decades reflects the dynamic interplay between urbanization, agricultural expansion, and environmental degradation. Through a comprehensive analysis of land use and land cover (LULC) changes using satellite imagery and spatial analysis techniques, this study offers insights into the evolving socio-environmental dynamics of the region. The findings reveal significant increases in built-up areas and corresponding declines in agricultural lands and natural ecosystems, driven by population growth and economic development. Despite efforts to mitigate environmental degradation, challenges such as soil erosion, deforestation, and water scarcity persist. However, there are promising initiatives aimed at enhancing water security and ecosystem resilience. In statistical terms, the analysis of land use and land cover changes in Tirupati reveals compelling trends over the study period. Utilizing Landsat satellite data and Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) techniques, significant shifts in urbanization, agricultural activity, and environmental degradation were quantitatively assessed. The results demonstrate a remarkable expansion of built-up areas, accompanied by a concerning decline in agricultural lands and natural vegetation cover. Moreover, buffer ring and directionality analyses elucidate spatial patterns of change, highlighting the concentrated urban growth in specific directions and the widespread degradation of natural habitats. These statistical insights underscore the urgency of implementing sustainable development strategies and conservation measures to address the socio-environmental challenges facing Tirupati and foster long-term resilience. The study underscores the importance of sustainable development strategies and conservation efforts to address these challenges and ensure the long-term sustainability of Tirupati and its surrounding areas.

Analysis of Land Use Change and Associated Implications on Soil Ecosystem Functions in South Eastern Nigeria

Land use change affects soil functions and its capacity to provide ecosystem services. Though much of the tropics are experiencing accelerated increases in land use change, associated impacts of such changes are poorly understood and studied. This study assessed the extent to which land use changes affect the soil ecosystem functions in a rainforest zone of south eastern Nigeria. Soil samples were collected from 24 sample locations in selected natural forest, cashew and palm plantations. Samples were analyzed in triplicate in the laboratory for geochemical analysis, after which the result was subjected to statistical analysis—ANOVA, correlation and regression. Forest carbon had higher % mean carbon content; though there was no significant difference (F (2, 21) = .246, p = .784) in carbon level across land uses. R value of .301 showed low correlation between % carbon, organic matter and % loss in ignition. Furthermore, R2 value of 9.1% total variation in the dependent variable could only be explained by the independent variables. CEC, Nitrogen, Potassium and Phosphorus content of the land uses did not differ significantly: CEC (F (2, 21) = .844, p (.44); Nitrogen (.243), p (.79), Potassium (.140), p (.87), Phosphorus (.783), p (.47). This showed that there was no significant variation in soil fertility of the land uses, although natural forest had higher concentrations for these variables. Across the land uses, soil texture equally had no significant variations: % sand (F (2, 21) = .320, p (.729) % clay (.430), p (.656), % silt (.043), p (.958). Soil carbon was seen to be more enhanced in natural forest ecosystems than other land uses. Though plantations had reduced capacities to provide ecosystem functions, establishing such in modified landscapes is still advocated as they can coexist with such and yet ensure ecosystem functions.

Simulation and Analysis of Land-Use Change Based on the PLUS Model in the Fuxian Lake Basin (Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau, China)

It is essential to study the characteristics of land use change in the Fuxian Lake basin, a plateau lake in Yunnan Province, and to predict the basin’s future trend of land use change for sustaining the key carriers of current national major strategies such as ecological civilization, green development, and rural revitalization. This study used the Fuxian Lake basin as the subject and based on the seven periods of historical land use data, added six driving factors including human and natural factors, applied patches to generate the land-use simulation model (PLUS), and forecasted and analyzed the characteristics of land-use change in the basin in 2048 under the three scenarios of natural trend development, ecological protection, and production protection. The results showed that: (1) the overall simulation accuracy of the model was 79.14%, Kappa index was 0.73, FOM value was 0.29, and the model’s consistency was high. The model can be used to simulate future land-use changes in the Fuxian Lake basin. (2) In the natural development scenario, land-use development and the driving factors in the basin have the following relationship: rainfall and trunk road distance significantly impacted the types of land that emphasize ecological conservation and product development. Elevation and soil distribution characteristics had a significant impact on land types focused mainly on water zones and ecological protection. The land types mainly focused on urban construction were greatly affected by elevation, trunk road distance, GDP per capita, and other factors. (3) The main direction of land-use change in the watershed is the mutual conversion between farmland and forest land, with the continuous expansion of construction land. In the production protection scenario, the area of farmland increased by 44.79 hm2. In the ecological protection scenario, the area of arbor forest land increased by 37.85 hm2 and the area of shrub forest land decreased by 62.37 hm2. (4) From the perspective of spatial distribution patterns, the regional hotspot change blocks are mainly concentrated in the north of the basin, along the coast of the north of Fuxian Lake, and the southern land. In general, the PLUS model had good applicability in this study. The simulation results of the different scenarios were in line with the land development in the Fuxian Lake basin and can provide scientific reference for land-space planning, ecological and production land constraints, and coordination of development in the Fuxian Lake basin.

A Spatiotemporal Pattern Analysis of High-Frequency Land-Use Changes in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area, from 1990 to 2018

With continuous rises in GDP, land cover in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) has undergone a drastic change over the period 1990–2018. In this study, land use in the GBA was divided into six types: farmland, forestland, grassland, wetland, construction land, and unused land. We analyzed changes in spatiotemporal patterns according to region and type by using statistical analysis, spatial clustering, and hotspot analysis, focusing on the spatial characteristics of areas where land-use types changed with high frequency. The high-frequency land use in the GBA has strategic guidance for further urban planning and management. With discussions on urban planning, the natural environment, and social and economic development, we found the following: (1) Urban construction land in the GBA showed a unipolar growth mode, increasing from 5.63% to 14.34% from 1990 to 2018. Accordingly, the degree of urban concentration and contiguity rose continuously. (2) Hotspots with frequent land-use changes were concentrated mainly in areas with economic intensity. (3) Plots with high-frequency land-use changes (Flc > 2) were concentrated primarily in the waters and rivers of the GBA within 10 km of the administrative boundaries of prefecture-level cities. (4) Nearly 80% of the land has been or will be transformed into ecological land over the period 1990–2018. On the basis of these findings, we suggest further improving land-use efficiency, and ecological land damage and the over-occupation of sea space should be avoided while maintaining economic growth. Thus, linking increases and decreases in construction land is an excellent land-consolidation mechanism to transform inefficient urban land into ecological land.

Coastal ecosystem service in response to past and future land use and land cover change dynamics in the Yangtze river estuary

Climate change and anthropogenic activities are increasingly threatening estuarine and coastal zones. These effects lead to complex positive and negative feedback among sustainable development pillars of human, society, economy and environment according to the integrated sustainability perspective. Only limited studies have calculated comprehensive impact assessments of land conversions between land and sea, invasive species expansion, and inundation impacts on natural wetlands under future scenarios. To fill-in this research gap, this study aims to conduct a long-term temporal analysis (1960–2015) of land use and land cover change (LULC), and future ecosystem service value (ESV) loss for intertidal wetlands predicted in the Yangtze River Estuary (YRE). The results show that, over recent decades, impervious constructed areas and Spartina alterniflora-covered saltmarsh have increased to 10.7% and 2.61%, respectively, whereas native species saltmarshes and tidal flats have decreased to 0.04% and 1.1%, respectively. The total ESV increased significantly during 1960–2000 but significantly declined during 2000–2015. The highest total ESV was US$ 3.8 billion in 2010, considering the approximate contributions of natural and artificial wetlands. Similarly, the ESV of the S. alterniflora saltmarshes reached US$ 0.7 billion in 2015. The total intertidal wetlands area could decrease to 8071–8248/ha by 2100. The total ESV of intertidal wetland ecosystems would decrease by approximately one billion dollars between 2015 and 2050. An enhanced understanding of the economic impacts regarding coastal management, restoration, and conservation is of profound importance for improving coastal resilience, sustainable development, and adaptation of coastal societies to climate change in the Yangtze River Estuary.

Driving forces and prediction of urban land use change based on the geodetector and CA-Markov model: a case study of Zhengzhou, China

ABSTRACT Exploring urban land use change is a classical problem in urban geography. Taking Zhengzhou as an example, this paper analyzes the spatial and temporal characteristics and driving factors of urban land use change, and simulates the spatial pattern of urban land use in the future. The results of the study show that the land use types in Zhengzhou city were mainly farmland and construction land, the area of forestland, grassland, water area, and unused land was smaller, and the main land use change was the transformation of farmland into construction land. The accuracy check of the simulated land use type data in 2020 showed that the kappa coefficient reached 0.9445, which met the accuracy requirement. Then, according to the predicted land use data in 2025, it was found that the area of grassland, construction land, and water area may have decreased, and the area of farmland, forestland and unused land may have increased. Based on the driving force analysis of land use changes, its prediction results can provide an important reference basis for the formulation and planning of policies related to urban construction.

Analysis of Land Use Change Effects/Impacts on Surface Water Resources in Delhi

Rapid urbanization and haphazard development derive the changes in land uses and affect the naturally available resources which are essential for human development and other lives. Land use changes can undermine the environment and ecology of an urban area. Although many studies on the land use changes, trends, status, directions, and the relationship between them have been conducted for Chinese cities, none of them have been completed for Indian cities and also not for NCT Delhi. The aim of the study is to analyze the impact of land use changes on surface water resources. So, this study aims to analyze the effects of land use changes on surface water resources in NCT Delhi, one water-stressed city in India. The analysis is comprised of changes, trends, status, and directions for surface water resources and other types of land use for showing the effects. Comprehensive tools such as remote sensing, GIS, and the cross-tabulation method are used for the assessment of land use changes, trends, and status. Four decadal (1990, 2000, 2010, 2020) satellite maps have been used to study the temporal-spatial data of several land uses and to calculate the index of land use changes for investigating the trends and status. In the form of results, the comprehensive net change (18.28%) and total change (49.28%) with a trend value of 0.37 show the quasi-balanced, two-way transition and positive changes in the whole area. This metrics-based study shows that surface water resources land use type is decreasing, and built-up land use type is increasing since 1990. Population growth, economic and industrial development were the major factors for the variations in built-up, green, and other land uses. This metrics-based analysis study is an important perspective for protecting urban water bodies from effects of land use changes. These understandings on land use changes and temporal-spatial relationships are important for present and future land use development and surface water resource planning. This study will help the Delhi Government’s initiatives for the rejuvenation of urban water bodies by endorsing the land use regulations on surrounding land uses.

Identification of Territorial Spatial Pattern Conflicts in Aksu River Basin, China, from 1990 to 2020

The change in land use leads to territorial spatial conflict. Territorial spatial conflicts mainly show that the boundaries of agricultural space, urban space, and ecological space overlap each other and interfere with each other’s functions, which will have a negative impact on regional high-quality development. The Aksu River, the most principal source of the Tarim River, the largest instream river in China, is a key area for maintaining ecological security in Northwestern China. It is highly significant to identify the spatial conflict characteristics of land use in this region to promote the sustainable use of regional land resources, optimization of spatial patterns, and the balance between economic construction and ecological environmental protection in mountainous areas. This paper takes the Aksu River Basin as the research area. Using Arcgis 10.8 software, Yaahp software, and SPSSAU software, it builds a land use spatial conflict measurement model based on a quantitative analysis of land use changes from 1990 to 2020 and explores the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of land use conflicts in the Aksu River Basin. The results show that: (1) From 1990 to 2020, the spatial conflict pattern of the study area was dominated by ecological spatial conflicts. The spatial conflict area shows dynamic changes, but the overall trend is decreasing. (2) The spatial conflict pattern of territorial space in the Aksu River Basin has basically formed, and the three types of spatial conflicts are closely related to the level of local economic development. (3) Ecological spatial conflicts are mainly distributed in high-altitude mountains, river valleys, and oasis-to-desert transition areas. Urban spatial conflicts are mainly distributed in the middle and lower reaches of the Aksu River plain oasis. Agricultural spatial conflicts are scattered but large in scale, with small differences in the proportion of conflict distribution among the counties.

Land use change in suburban zone: European context of urban sprawl

Quantifying and understanding global land use change and its spatial and temporal dynamics is critical to supporting international policy debates. The main area of transformation of spatial structures nowadays are suburban areas of the largest cities. Constant land development and urbanization, including such forms as urban sprawl, influence significant changes in land use. The aim of this study was to analyse a land use change pattern in a selected rural area which is under pressure of spatial development of a regional city. Data used for a land use change detection was based opensource Urban Atlas dataset for 2006, 2012, and 2018, enriched by recent update from 2021 orthophoto map. Spatial analyses presenting statistics of land use change were conducted in QGIS. Besides analysis of land use change, the paper discusses observed spatial patterns also taking into account changing social, environmental and economic conditions and spatial policies influencing land cover complexity. Understanding these dynamics would help better spatial management of real estates for more sustainable land development.

PREDICTING OF URBAN EXPANSION USING CONVOLUTIONAL LSTM NETWORK MODEL: THE CASE OF SEOUL METROPOLITAN AREA, KOREA

Abstract. As urbanization progresses, many studies about the analysis and prediction of land-use change and urban sprawl have been conducted recently. As the sprawl phenomenon progresses rapidly, the urban expansion phenomenon became uncontrolled and it has affected negatively on the city's environment and transportation finally. So, it is essential to identify lands likely to be urbanized in the future because it aids in establishing land use plans and policies pre-acting the negative impact of spatially urban expansion the sprawl by determining factors affecting the urban sprawl. Previous studies based on statistical models are limited to identifying determining factors, so the prediction performance is low compared to deep learning. On the other hand, existing studies using machine learning and deep learning overlook selecting specific region-focused variables. Therefore, this study aims to analyze and predict changes in the Seoul Metropolitan Area's sprawl in Korea using the Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory Network (ConvLSTM) with factors at the city scale and neighboring factors at the local scale in the Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA). ConvLSTM is a type of combination model: combining Recurrent Neural Network(RNN) and Convolutional Neural Network(CNN). This study showed that ConvLSTM with factors at the city and neighboring factors at the local scale predicted the urbanized land. The determinants contain population and roads ratio at the city scale, and neighboring urban lands, distance to the nearest subway stations, slope, and elevation at the local scale. The results reveal that predicted urban lands in 2020 increase over the entire region. In particular, the expected urban lands in 2020 increase by reducing farmlands in the southern part of the SMA. It is consistent with the trend of urbanized lands from 1980 to 2010. In addition, urbanization occurs in areas adjacent to Seoul due to the well-established urban infrastructure. The results of this study can be used as evidence to establish sustainable land use plans and regulations in the future.

Assessing the ecological suitability of land-use change. Lessons learned from a rural marginal area in southeast Portugal

Land-use planning practice and policy are still lacking a landscape perspective that takes into account landscape history integrated with land suitability. This article presents a method that allows assessing the ecological suitability of land-use change. This method was applied to Baixo Guadiana, a rural marginal area in southeast Portugal. The first step of the land-use change ecological assessment is the study area delimitation. Baixo Guadiana limits were obtained through land morphology and slopes cartography, based on the "morphological landscape unit” concept. The second step - land suitability analysis - includes a characterization of the landscape ecological suitability. The third step - land-use change analysis - combines landscape history, with land-use change analysis and historical literature review. The final step – land-use change ecological assessment – is the evaluation of the land-use changes regarding land suitability. This paper highlights how the integration of two widely used methods, land-use change and land suitability analysis, supports land use policy analysis. Firstly, this research shows how past policies did not consider Baixo Guadiana Landscape Suitability. The current lack of natural regeneration of holm and cork oaks, the death of these adult trees and the low production of stone pine plantations, represent the main challenges to the planning and recovery of this landscape. Secondly, besides highlighting how these problems resulted from past inadequate land uses, promoted by national and European agricultural policies, this study indicates the areas where landscape recovery actions should be financed.