A Spatiotemporal Pattern Analysis of High-Frequency Land-Use Changes in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area, from 1990 to 2018

Abstract

With continuous rises in GDP, land cover in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) has undergone a drastic change over the period 1990–2018. In this study, land use in the GBA was divided into six types: farmland, forestland, grassland, wetland, construction land, and unused land. We analyzed changes in spatiotemporal patterns according to region and type by using statistical analysis, spatial clustering, and hotspot analysis, focusing on the spatial characteristics of areas where land-use types changed with high frequency. The high-frequency land use in the GBA has strategic guidance for further urban planning and management. With discussions on urban planning, the natural environment, and social and economic development, we found the following: (1) Urban construction land in the GBA showed a unipolar growth mode, increasing from 5.63% to 14.34% from 1990 to 2018. Accordingly, the degree of urban concentration and contiguity rose continuously. (2) Hotspots with frequent land-use changes were concentrated mainly in areas with economic intensity. (3) Plots with high-frequency land-use changes (Flc > 2) were concentrated primarily in the waters and rivers of the GBA within 10 km of the administrative boundaries of prefecture-level cities. (4) Nearly 80% of the land has been or will be transformed into ecological land over the period 1990–2018. On the basis of these findings, we suggest further improving land-use efficiency, and ecological land damage and the over-occupation of sea space should be avoided while maintaining economic growth. Thus, linking increases and decreases in construction land is an excellent land-consolidation mechanism to transform inefficient urban land into ecological land.