Analysis Of Land Use Change Research Articles

Potential of Growing Energy Crops and Then Producing Liquid Fuels in Marginal Land: A China Scenario

To explore the potential of growing energy crops and then producing liquid fuels in marginal land in China, in this paper, the status quo of existing biomass resources and marginal land utilization in China have been first analyzed and the development process of biomass liquid fuels has then been reviewed. Secondly, using ethyl levulinate (EL) as our research subject, the production capacity of growing energy crops in marginal land and their potential to prepare liquid fuels have been explored. Finally, the problems in developing marginal land have been summarized, and proposed policy recommendations for marginal land development, energy crop cultivation, and liquid fuel development suitable for Chinese conditions. The results showed that the potential of sweet sorghum, cassava, jatropha curcas, and switchgrass cultivation in China in producing is 75.76 million tonnes, 1.52 million tonnes, 4.57 million tonnes, and 5.16 million tonnes, respectively. Among these crops, sweet sorghum and switch grass have a higher production capacity and are more suitable to be planted on marginal land and used to produce liquid fuels. The planting of these two crops has absorbed about a 111.11 million tonnes and 7.57 million tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2), respectively, presenting significant carbon sequestration and oxygen-producing effects, which provides a theoretical basis for the analysis of land use change.

Comparative analysis of land use changes modeling based-on new hybrid models and CA-Markov in the Urmia lake basin

Land use change is one of the most significant environmental issues in many countries and is the main reason for ecosystem changes. This issue is one of the most important environmental crises in Iran due to the lack of planning and inappropriate human use of the natural environment. Many parts of Iran, especially the Urmia Lake basin, are involved in challenging land use changes. The trend of land use changes extracted from Landsat images in the Urmia lake basin with overall accuracy and Kappa coefficient of more than 85 % and 80 % respectively shows that during the 32-year period (1989–2021) agricultural lands, built-up lands and barren lands respectively 3330.83 km2, 466.86 km2 and 5325.8 km2 have increased in area. On the other hand, the areas of vegetation and water bodies decreased by 6625.79 km2 and 2497.7 km2, respectively. The current trend of land use changes in Urmia basin based on all models of Markov chain-Multi Criteria Evolution-Cellular Automata (MC-MCE-CA), Markov Chain-Multilayer Perceptron-Cellular Automata (MC-MLP-CA), Markov Chain-Sim Weight-Cellular Automata (MC-SW-CA), Markov Chain–Logistic Regression-Cellular Automata (MC-LR-CA) indicate the continuation of changes until 2037. Meanwhile, based on the most accurate models such as MC-MLP-CA and MC-LR-CA models, agricultural lands will increase by 1436.60 km2 and 1258.33 km2, built-up lands by 75.23 km2 and 65.52 km2, and barren lands by 808.94 km2 and 856.90 km2 respectively. Also, the vegetation lands will be reduced by 1890.64 km2 and 1755.31 km2 and water bodies by 430.13 km2 and 425.44 km2. In general, the results showed that MC-MLP-CA, MC-LR-CA, MC-SW-CA, MC-MCE-CA models with Overall Kappa 89.89, 87.09, 84.52 % and 84.84 and Percent of Correctness 93.65, 93.09, 91.52 and 91.77 respectively, with higher accuracy than the CA-Markov model (Overall Kappa = 81.49 % and Percent of Correctness = 87.49 %) are more effective for land use changes modeling.

A Spatio-Temporal Examination of Land Use and Land Cover Changes in Smart Cities of the Delhi–Mumbai Industrial Corridor

This study provides a detailed analysis of land use and land cover (LULC) changes at the district level within the Delhi–Mumbai Industrial Corridor (DMIC) from 2001 to 2021. Using the Indian Meteorological Department’s sub-divisional framework and MODIS data across seven primary LULC classes, the analysis is instrumental in informing infrastructure planning for existing and future smart cities and industrial clusters within the DMIC. The key findings reveal a yearly increase of 3031.40 sq. km. per year in agricultural land, with decreases in shrubland, grassland, and bareland of −1774.72 sq. km. per year, −1119.62 sq. km. per year, and −203.76 sq. km. per year, respectively. On the other hand, forests grew by a modest 148.14 sq. km. per year, while waterbodies and built-up lands saw minor increases of 55.73 sq. km. and 21.48 sq. km. per year. Ecologically Sensitive Areas (ESAs) were evaluated for LULC changes. The smart cities of Pune and Thane serve as excellent examples of balanced urban development and natural growth management. However, the study also highlights the need for further research to investigate LULC impacts on climatic variables, advocating for a regional planning approach in the DMIC.

The Kerch Peninsula in Transition: A Comprehensive Analysis and Prediction of Land Use and Land Cover Changes over Thirty Years

This study presents an in-depth analysis of land use and land cover change on the Kerch Peninsula over a period spanning three decades. Convolutional neural networks were employed in conjunction with satellite imagery analysis to map and quantify the changes in land use and cover. This revealed significant trends and transformations within the peninsula’s landscape. The analysis revealed a notable increase in urban expansion, particularly at the expense of natural ecosystems. Furthermore, there was a notable reversion of agricultural lands to grasslands, driven by economic downturns and reduced agricultural activity. These land cover changes underscore the urgency of implementing sustainable land management policies. The study recommends the establishment of conservation easements to protect remaining natural ecosystems, the initiation of reforestation programs to restore degraded lands, and the development of comprehensive water management strategies to address the peninsula’s hydrological challenges. Furthermore, the study underscores the pivotal importance of integrating change analysis and predictive modeling to anticipate future land cover scenarios and inform effective land management strategies. The model developed through this research, which employs advanced remote sensing and GIS technologies, provides a robust framework for understanding and managing land use and land cover change. This model can serve as a reference for similar regions globally, offering insights that can inform sustainable land use practices and policy decisions. The findings of this study have implications that extend beyond the Kerch Peninsula. They provide insights that can inform the management of land use changes and the conservation of natural landscapes in regions facing comparable socio-economic and environmental challenges.

Analyses of LULC dynamics in a socio-ecological system of the Bale Mountains Eco Region of Southeast Ethiopia.

Analysis of land use and land cover (LULC) change and its drivers and impacts in the biodiversity hotspot of Bale Mountain's socio-ecological system is crucial for formulating plausible policies and strategies that can enhance sustainable development. The study aimed to analyze spatio-temporal LULC changes and their trends, extents, drives, and impacts over the last 48 years in the Bale Mountain social-ecological system. Landsat imagery data from the years 1973, 1986, 1996, 2014, and 2021 together with qualitative data were used. LULC classification scheme employed a supervised classification method with the application of the maximum likelihood algorithm technique. In the period between 1973 and 2021, agriculture, bare land, and settlement showed areal increment by 153.13%, 295.57%, and 49.03% with the corresponding increased annual rate of 1.93%, 2.86%, and 0.83%, respectively. On the contrary, forest, wood land, bushland, grass land, and water body decreased by 29.97%, 1.36%, 28.16%, 8.63%, and 84.36% during the study period, respectively. During the period, major LULC change dynamics were also observed; the majority of woodland was converted to agriculture (757.8 km2) and grassland (531.3 km2); and forests were converted to other LULC classes, namely woodland (766.5 km2), agriculture (706.1 km2), grassland (34.6 km2), bushland (31.9 km2), settlement (20.5 km2), and bare land (14.3 km2). LULC changes were caused by the expansion of agriculture, settlement, overgrazing, infrastructure development, and fire that were driven by population growth and climate change, and supplemented by inadequate policy and institutional factors. Social and environmental importance and values of land uses and land covers in the study area necessitate further assessment of potential natural resources' user groups and valuation of ecosystem services in the study area. Hence, we suggest the identification of potential natural resource-based user groups, and assessment of the influence of LULC changes on ecosystem services in Bale Mountains Eco Region (BMER) for the sustainable use and managements of land resources.

Spatio-temporal evolution analysis of land use change and landscape ecological risks in rapidly urbanizing areas based on Multi-Situation simulation − a case study of Chengdu Plain

Land use change in emerging nations raises landscape ecological risks (LERS), hastens the deterioration of urban and rural ecosystem services, endangers human well-being, and undermines sustainable development in the face of rapidly increasing urbanization. Here, using the Chengdu Plain as the study area and long time series data from 2000 to 2020, the optimal time span is selected for multi-context spatio-temporal simulation. The land use map of Chengdu Plain in 2025 under the four scenarios of “Natural Development” (ND), “Economic Priority Development” (END), “Ecological Priority Development” (ELD), and “Sustainable Development” (SD) was simulated, and the multi-indicator landscape ecological risk index (ERI) was generated to compare and analyze the differences between land use and landscape ecological risk under different policy preferences. Subsequently, the land use data from 2025 to 2040 were simulated, the landscape ecological risk pattern was mapped, and the spatial and temporal evolution analysis from 2010 to 2040 was conducted to explore the spatial evolution law of land use change and landscape ecological risk. Based on the results, the high ecological risk aggregation areas are prone to appear in END scenarios, whereas medium-ecological risk aggregation areas are more likely to appear in ELD scenarios, and the government should focus its policy on arable land protection. Moreover, the land use pattern of cultivated land surrounding construction land and forested land surrounding cultivated land, caused by the irrational single-core development pattern and the policy of returning farmland to forests, has exacerbated the landscape ecological risk of the Chengdu Plain, constituting a unique landscape ecological risk pattern. It’s also important to remember that the Chengdu Plain’s less economically developed regions need to focus on the high-quality development of ecological land use. We adopted high-precision simulation methods to simulate the complex land use changes in rapidly urbanizing areas and explored the spatial evolution law and causes of landscape ecological risk evolution in the context of land use changes, with the intention of offering a solid theoretical foundation for such areas’ future planning in developing nations.

Analysis of Land Use Change and Its Economic and Ecological Value under the Optimal Scenario and Green Development Advancement Policy: A Case Study of Hechi, China

Analysis of Land Use Change and Its Economic and Ecological Value under the Optimal Scenario and Green Development Advancement Policy: A Case Study of Hechi, China

Wetland Changes and Ecosystem Services Valuation of Kapla Beel in Assam

Background: Wetlands are productive ecosystem with immense potentiality of providing various goods and services. But they are fast depleting due to various natural and anthropogenic causes. Kapla beel is a freshwater wetland located in Barpeta district in the lower Brahmaputra valley of Assam. Area of the Kapla beel has been decreasing over the years. This study shall make an attempt to analyse the causes of land use and land cover changes of Kapla beel of Assam and assess its ecosystem services value changes during the period 1990 to 2022. Methods: To assess the changes, two Landsat images for the year 1990 and 2022 of Kapla beel were taken from the United State Geological Survey (USGS) Earth Explorer. Land-use change analysis was assessed by comparing the areas occupied by each land use in each period using the ArcGIS software. The dynamicity index is used to calculate the rate of change in land cover. In order to assess the changes in the wetland ecosystem service value due to wetland changes, Benefit Transfer Method is used which involves transferring monetary values of ecosystem services from previous studies. Result: The valuation of ecosystem services underlines the fact that wetlands are highly productive and economically viable ecosystems. Accounting of ecosystem services provides information about the need for optimal decision -making towards judicious use of wetland resources for their sustenance.

Analysis of land use change and its impact on channel morphology of Ginzo River Basin, Nigeria

ABSTRACT The study examined land use change and its impact on channel morphology of Ginzo basin. Multi-decadal (1980, 1990, 2000, 2010, 2020) Landsat imageries were rectified for radiometric and geometric errors, classified, and analyzed to assess land use change, river channel area, length, channel width, centerline migration area, and distance using the ArcGIS software. The results show an increase in the built-up area, bare land, and water bodies by 21.9%, 27.7%, and 1.1% respectively between 1980 and 2020. Farmland and forest, however, decreased by 11.1% and 38.2%. River channel area, length, and width increased and decreased over the study period. The center line migrated eastward in the upstream and midstream while shifting westward in the downstream sections. Variations in channel area were attributed to the forest and bare land, constituting 86% and 14%, respectively. Changes in channel length were influenced by farmland, bare land, built-up area, and water bodies contributing 32.8%, 30.8%, 8.6%, and 27.8%, respectively. Channel width adjustments were explained by farmland and the built-up area contributing 70.9% and 29.1%, respectively. Forest and farmland constitute 52.8% and 48.2% of variations in river migration area. Conclusively, Land use impact models aid in predicting channel adjustments, offering insights for river basin management.

Application of land-use change model for supporting land-use planning in An Bien district, Kien Giang province, Vietnam

Forecasting land-use change is a critical step in assisting land-use planning, especially for coastal areas that are influenced by many economic and natural environmental factors. This study aims to estimate land use changes based for An Bien district, Mekong Delta based on multi-criteria assessment of factors affecting land use change. The model has been calibrated with the 2015 land-use map and verified with the 2020 map. The results of land-use change analysis in An Bien district were carried out according two scenarios: (i) forecasting the area under present conditions and (ii) forecasting land use area in the case of economic benefits and suitable environmental conditions for aquaculture production. Scenario 1 showed that the results will not change much compared to the current situation, in which rice-shrimp plays a leading role locality, however Scenario 2 showed that shrimp area will rapidly rise. In general, the simulation results allow users to explore future planning possibilities and serve as a basis for selecting appropriate land-use types.

Spatial and temporal differentiation and coupling analysis of land use change and ecosystem service value in Jiangsu Province

A detailed exploration of the nexus between land use change (LUC) and ecosystem service value (ESV) at the urban level is crucial for fostering high-quality urban economic growth alongside the sustainable management of land resources. This study focuses on Jiangsu Province, employing an enhanced and refined ESV assessment model to perform a dynamic examination of the spatial and temporal variations in land use and ESV across the region from 2000 to 2020. Additionally, it delves into the intricate coupled coordination dynamics between land use intensity and ESV by developing a coupled coordination model. Key findings include: (1) Jiangsu Province experienced notable land use transformations over the two decades, with a marked reduction in cropland and a significant expansion of construction sites being the most prominent shifts. (2) The ESV in Jiangsu Province has exhibited fluctuating trends over the past 20 years, with water bodies and agricultural lands serving as the cornerstone for the province's ESV. Areas with high ESV are predominantly located around the Yangtze River's water bodies, along the coastline, and around lakes and radiate outward from these aquatic centers. (3) The coupling between LUC and ESV in Jiangsu Province has been upward, albeit with pronounced city disparities. This coupling displays distinct spatial patterns, characterized by higher levels in the east and lower levels in the west, as well as higher levels in the north and lower levels in the south. The outcomes of this analysis offer valuable insights and policy recommendations for enhancing land use planning, refining land use configurations, and promoting the synergistic development of land use and ecosystem service functions in Jiangsu Province.

Analysis of Land use and Land Cover Change, Causes and Effects on Agricultural Productivity: The Case of Anlemo District in Hadiya zone, Central Ethiopia

Analysis of Land use and Land Cover Change, Causes and Effects on Agricultural Productivity: The Case of Anlemo District in Hadiya zone, Central Ethiopia

Effects of Anthropogenic Activities on Sardinella maderensis (Lowe, 1838) Fisheries in Coastal Communities of Ibeju-Lekki, Lagos, Nigeria

Small-scale fisheries are significant sources of nutrition and livelihood globally. However, increasing anthropogenic activities in coastal areas of developing countries have threatened the sustainability of artisanal fisheries and species. Fisheries of Sardinella maderensis, towards the global stock of which Nigeria contributes 9% and which is a significant livelihood source in the coastal communities of Ibeju-Lekki, Lagos, faces sustainability threats. This research investigated the effects of anthropogenic activities on S. maderensis fisheries in the coastal areas of Ibeju-Lekki, Lagos, Nigeria. The study adopted a mixed-method approach involving qualitative and quantitative research methods. These included species identification, water quality analysis, land-use change analysis, field surveys, focus group discussions, and interviews. Genetic analysis of the fish samples from the study area revealed that the species had a mean of 98% similarity to S. maderensis. While major urban and industrial land use has increased by 175% in the last four decades, the catch per unit effort (CPUE) of S. maderensis declined monthly to 0.0072 kg/H between 2003 and 2019. Linear regression indicated that anthropogenic variables explained approximately 39.58% of the variation in the CPUE (p < 0.001, R2 = 0.40). Water samples showed that heavy metal levels were above international limits, with high total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH) pollution in all stations (27.56 mg/L–3985.40 mg/L). Physiochemical analysis of water samples indicated TDS levels higher than the acceptable limits (mean = 24,971.1 mg/L) and inadequate chlorophyll-a levels (mean = 0.01 µg/L). Hence, urgent strategies are required to mitigate anthropogenic threats through inclusive coastal management policies supporting resilient artisanal fisheries.

Intensity analysis applied to land use and land cover change and transitions in a fragile tropical mountain environment: a case of sironko catchment on Mt. Elgon, Eastern Uganda

ABSTRACT Intensity Analysis (IA) of land use and land cover change (LULCC) is important to support policy and practice. We applied IA to analyse LULCC in Sironko catchment, Uganda. Results show that agricultural land, forest, and wetland reduced by 8%; 32%; and 20% between 1986-2000. Between 2000-2016, forest, wetland, and built-up areas increased by 84%, 5%, and 57%. Active gainers between 1986-2000 were bare land, built-up areas, grassland and woodland. Between 2000-2016, bare lands and woodlands were the active losers. Transition to agricultural land in both intervals suggests that subsistence agriculture is fuelling deforestation and wetland encroachment in the region.

Analysis and Simulation of Land Use Changes and Their Impact on Carbon Stocks in the Haihe River Basin by Combining LSTM with the InVEST Model

The quantitative analysis and prediction of spatiotemporal patterns of land use in Haihe River Basin are of great significance for land use and ecological planning management. To reveal the changes in land use and carbon stock, the spatial–temporal pattern of land use data in the Haihe River Basin from 2000 to 2020 was studied via Mann–Kendall (MK) trend analysis, the transfer matrix, and land use dynamic attitude. Through integrating the models of the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) and the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), the results of the spatial distribution of land use and carbon stock were obtained and compared with Cellular Automation (CA-Markov), and then applied to predict the spatial distribution in 2025. The results show the following: (1) The land use and land cover (LULC) changes in the Haihe River Basin primarily involve an exchange between cultivated land, forest, and grassland, as well as the conversion of cultivated land to built-up land. This transformation contributes to the overall decrease in carbon storage in the basin, which declined by approximately 1.20% from 2000 to 2020. (2) The LULC prediction accuracy of LSTM is nearly 2.00% higher than that of CA-Markov, reaching 95.01%. (3) In 2025, the area of grassland in Haihe River Basin will increase the most, while the area of cultivated land will decrease the most. The spatial distribution of carbon stocks is higher in the northwest and lower in the southeast, and the changing areas are scattered throughout the study area. However, due to the substantial growth of grassland and forest, the carbon stocks in the Haihe River Basin in 2025 will increase by about 10 times compared with 2020. The research results can provide a theoretical basis and reference for watershed land use planning, ecological restoration, and management.

Can land-use and land-cover change explain reduced resilience in forests?

Generating signals of reduced resilience in ecosystems is crucial for conservation and management endeavors. However, the practical implications of such systems are still limited due to the lack of high-frequency data and uncertainties associated with predicting complex systems such as ecosystems. This study aims to investigate the potential of time series analysis of remote sensing data in detecting signals of reduced resilience in mangrove forest ecosystems. Using time series analysis of remote sensing images, the resilience of mangrove forests was explored across two distinct study sites. One site (Qeshm Island) has been adversely affected by land-use and land-cover changes, while the other (Gabrik) serves as a reference ecosystem. The study uses data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite to quantify three remotely sensed indices: the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), the Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI), and the Modified Vegetation Water Ratio (MVWR). In addition, Landsat data has been used to explore temporal alterations in land-use and land-cover change. To identify signals of reduced resilience, trend analyses of indicators such as autocorrelation (acf (1)) and standard deviation (SD) are applied. The findings revealed a notable decrease in resilience, signaled by significant upward trends in NDVI statistical metrics for Qeshm Island (Kendall’s τ of acf (1): 0.50 and SD: 0.90), contrasting with the pattern observed in Gabrik (Kendall’s τ of acf (1): −0.19 and SD: −0.19). These results align with our expectations derived from previous studies. Despite MNDWI significantly indicating reduced resilience in Qeshm Island (Kendall’s τ of acf (1): 0.86 and SD: 0.90), it also signaled decreased resilience in Gabrik (Kendall’s τ of acf (1): 0.79 and SD: 0.90). Moreover, MVWR failed to indicate signals of reduced resilience in both sites, specifically in Qeshm (Kendall’s τ of acf (1): −0.10 and SD: −0.07) and in Gabrik (Kendall’s τ of acf (1): −0.72 and SD: −0.12). These findings may be explained through quantitative analyses of land-use and land-cover change. While Qeshm Island and Gabrik share similarities in climate, geography, and annual rainfall, the analysis of land-use and land-cover change revealed significant differences between the two study areas. Qeshm Island underwent drastic increases in the built-up class by a 64.40% change between 1996 and 2014, whereas the built-up class expanded modestly by a 4.04% change in the Gabrik site. This study contributes to advancing our understanding of ecosystem dynamics. The findings of this study can be integrated with ecosystem management tools to enhance the effectiveness of conservation efforts. This is the first report of the successful application of remote sensing in generating signals of reduced resilience within mangrove forests in the Middle East.

Land surface temperature responses to land use dynamics in urban areas of Doha, Qatar

Rapid urbanization primarily converts naturally vegetated areas and pervious surfaces into impervious built-up areas, significantly transforming microclimates and ecological dynamics. The impervious surfaces, marked by their higher thermal conductivity, disrupt surface energy balance and accumulate solar heat, subsequently elevating the land surface temperatures (LSTs). This study investigates the impact of land use and land cover changes on summer and winter LSTs in Doha and Al Dayeen municipalities of Qatar, spanning from the years 2000 to 2023, using remote sensing techniques and Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The analysis of land use and land cover changes reveals a remarkable 343.16 % increase in the built-up area from 2000 to 2023, at the expense of previously existing desert lands and water bodies. While Qatar's desert land has high land surface temperature, substituting such areas with built-up exhibits a notable rise in temperatures. Additionally, land reclamation also results in elevated LSTs. The LST data derived from remote sensing sources demonstrates an upward trend for summer and a contrasting trend for winter. Specifically, the mean summer LST increases by 7.64 °C (0.34 °C annually), and the mean winter LST decreases by 4.87 °C (0.22 °C annually). Notably, built-up areas and desert lands consistently recorded the highest mean LST in both seasons in all observed years. A strong correlation was observed between summer and winter LST with land use and land cover patterns using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), Normalized Difference Built-up index (NDBI) and Normalized Difference Barrenness Index (NDBal). The results imply the negative influence of climate change and the urgent need for urban planning mitigation measures to counteract the adverse effects of increasing LSTs, particularly in summer months, to ensure the human well-being and resilience of the urban environments.

Analysis of Urban Land Use Changes in Xingtai City from the Year 2000 to 2020 for Urban Development Planning

Land use changes as a result of urban development are inevitable. This study is based on three aspects: spatial and temporal land use changes, spatial distribution characteristics, and the state of land resource development today. In this study, the land use status of Xingtai City over the previous 20 years is systematically examined using the global and local Moran's I value, information entropy for land use structures, and land use extent models. The results indicate that, firstly, the built-up land in Xingtai City has rapidly increased while farmland land has continued to decline, with a decrease of 9.93% in farmland and an increase of 84.16% in built-up land. Secondly, the utilisation rate of land resources in Xingtai City has increased annually, as has the l information entropy for land use structures, the extent of land use, and the comprehensive land use dynamic extent index. Qiaoxi District and Qiaodong District have the most significant upward trend. And thirdly, the land use types in the study area exhibit spatial aggregation characteristics, and single land use type cold and hot spots demonstrate spatial clustering.

Spatiotemporal variation of water balance components in Mashhad catchment, Iran: Investigating the impact of changes in climatic data and land use

Abstract The research aims to investigate the spatiotemporal changes of water balance components and distinguish the relative impacts of climatic data and land-use on groundwater level in northeastern Iran. This investigation employs the WetSpass-M model to estimate water balance and the Mann-Kendall test alongside Sen's slope estimator to evaluate trend. The study also assesses mean annual water balance components, considering diverse combinations of land-use and soil. The findings offer a hydrological insight, revealing that 14% of precipitation results in runoff, 29% of that recharging the aquifer; the remaining portion is lost through evapotranspiration. The trends in precipitation and simulated water components are not significant but a significant downward trend in groundwater is observed beyond a specific point in time. Based on this outcome, as well as the analysis of land-use changes, it was speculated that human activities in this fast-developing region might be implicated in the decline in groundwater levels. Analysis of water balance components in various soil and land-use combinations indicates that evapotranspiration exhibits greater variability within the land-cover class, while recharge is more influenced by soil texture. These findings enhance our understanding for identifying potential sites for artificial recharge and determining sustainable groundwater withdrawals based on spatiotemporal recharge patterns.

Contrasting patterns for endangered flora revealed by 60-year land-use change analysis

Land-use change analysis is widely accepted as a biodiversity conservation tool. However, it has seldom been used in the context of endangered plants. Our aim is to accurately quantify changes in land cover over the last 60 years in a selection of 58 populations of 43 Spanish threatened plants. Consequently, we explain how these changes correlate with major trends in biodiversity conservation such as human demography, ecological gradients or the spatial distribution of plant threats. A semi-automatic classification methodology is used to identify land-cover changes by comparing aerial photographs from 1956 to 2019 in an established radius around field plots. Secondly, information from field plots and external databases was analyzed using GIS layers and PCA statistics. Land use changes have been extensive and diverse. Tree and shrubland area have increased by 717.8 ha (an increase of 1.19 times compared to the initial situation) affecting most of the samples, whereas the urban area has increased by 168.8 ha (at a rate of 49 times from the initial values), although concentrated in certain populations. Land-use changes define two groups in the endangered flora: a first group is related to high human densities, low elevation settings and low in situ protection, while a second group is related to the cessation in human pressure, protected area establishment and increase in forest cover. The increase in forested area could be counterproductive. Urban land-use changes present a more urgent issue, especially for those endangered plants in coastal areas. Finally, high herbivore density and richness compromise endangered plant populations growing at high elevation in protected areas.