Fire Risk Analysis Research Articles

Dynamic risk analysis of fire and explosion domino accidents at hydrogen refueling stations using Dynamic Bayesian Network

Hydrogen is a promising energy source and hydrogen refueling stations (HRS) are the main hydrogen supply infrastructures. Unwanted hydrogen leaks and releases at the hydrogen station may cause serious explosion accidents and even induce domino effects due to intensive hazardous equipment in the station. However, scant attention has been accorded to the dynamic risks of fire, explosion, and domino effects at HRS, posing a threat to the safe functioning of HRS and the advancement of the hydrogen energy. This study thus first develops Dynamic Bayesian networks to model the primary fire and explosion accidents as well as domino effects at HRS. By the developed models, the critical factors that lead to accidents and the critical equipment that contributes to the initiation or propagation of domino effects can be identified. Moreover, the failure probability of different equipment exposed to possible accidents can also be obtained, supporting safety management of HRS.

Fire Risk Analysis in the Activity of Unloading Flammable Chemicals from Ship to Storage Tank

Fire Risk Analysis in the Activity of Unloading Flammable Chemicals from Ship to Storage Tank

The Use of Geographic Information Systems and Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Methods in the Creation of Forest Fire Susceptibility Maps: A Literature Review

Forest fires are natural disasters that cause significant environmental, economic, and social damage worldwide. This study provides a literature review examining how Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) methods are utilized in the prevention of forest fires and the identification of high-risk areas. GIS, as a system used for the collection and analysis of spatial data, enables the consideration of various factors influencing fire risk, such as climate change, topography, vegetation, and weather conditions. The spatial analysis capabilities offered by GIS play a critical role in identifying regions with high fire susceptibility when generating fire risk maps. Additionally, MCDM methods contribute significantly to the decision-making process by allowing the evaluation of multiple criteria in fire risk analysis. Logistic Regression and Frequency Ratio, which are frequently employed in the literature, are widely used in fire risk analysis and improve the accuracy of susceptibility maps. Furthermore, MCDM methods have been proven effective in estimating the likelihood of forest fire occurrences and identifying fire-prone areas. The integration of GIS and MCDM methods allows for more precise identification of risk zones and supports the development of fire prevention strategies. This literature review highlights the advantages of utilizing GIS and MCDM in the production of forest fire susceptibility maps and suggests that these methods may have broader applications in future research. The effective use of technology in combating forest fires enhances the accuracy of fire risk assessments, contributing significantly to environmental protection efforts.

Fire Safety Assessment of a Typical Sports Hall Building Based on Fire Dynamics and Crowd Movement Models

Fire risk analysis is one of the essential components of building design to ensure the safety of occupants and properties in case of fires. Currently, the Ministry of Public Works and Housing Regulation No. 20/PRT/M/2009 provides guidelines for conducting a fire risk analysis, however, without a clear consideration of fire dynamics in the estimation of the fire risk level. In this work, we investigate the fire safety aspects of a typical sports hall buildings by a fire dynamics deterministic model (Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) of the National Institute of Science and Technology, USA) and crowd movement model for occupant evacuation (Pathfinder of Thunderhead Engineering). Systematic investigations were made on the effects of the fire growth category and smoke extraction system on the Available Safe Egress Time (ASET). The results of ASET were then compared to the Required Safe Egress Time (RSET) which is obtained from the evacuation model. Our results suggest that ASET decreases exponentially with fire growth rate, especially from slow to medium growth rate. The fire growth rate significantly affects the acceptable fire risk of ASET longer than RSET. Occupant capacity, fire management systems, and smoke extraction systems play important roles in reducing fire risk. However, as the fire growth rate increases, the effects of smoke extraction in maintaining safe conditions diminish. This study provides recommendations to reduce risks to the occupants in case of fire, contributing to the considerations of the design and management of a typical sports hall building.

Analysis of kitchen fire risk from the isobutane refrigeration system based on decision support strategy for high-rise buildings

Kitchen fire has been becoming the critical risk to the building structure and security of users in high-rise buildings. Household isobutane refrigeration (HIR) systems are the most popular preservation method in the kitchen, and the isobutane (R600a) has been widely used in HIR system according to its low-global warming potential. Unfortunately, the R600a leakage from HIR system could cause fire accidents due to its flammable. A comprehensive analysis of flammable refrigerant leakage and the resulting fire risk is essential for the HIR system in the kitchen. Here, a novel decision support strategy that integrates the operation of the HIR system with the assessment of kitchen space fire risk is presented. The refrigerant leakage numerical model based on decision support strategy is built, and the reliability of proposed model is verified. The kitchen fire explosion risk is investigated and assessed considering various factors. The results indicate the leakage position and direction are related to kitchen fire risk. The kitchen fire explosion risk of the HIR system in winter is higher than that in summer, and the ventilators installed can reduce kitchen fire explosion risk. The kitchen fire risk probability is decreased by 19.86 % with the airflow velocity from 0 to 1.5 m/s. The comprehensive fire risk probability of the HIR system in the kitchen is 1.03 × 10−12–5.05 × 10−11. This study not only reaffirms some effective methodologies for mitigating risks and improving the system, but also provides a reference for improving high-rise building fire risk by decision support strategy.

Building Characteristics and Incompatible Land Uses as Drivers of Fire Disaster Risk

Risk-based land use planning is regarded as a controlling tool for reducing environmental disasters in urban settlements. However, unsustainable land use practices allow building and infrastructural developments in fire disaster-risk areas. Losses to urban fires are largely dependent on building and land use characteristics across settlements. This paper examines the underlying characteristics that increase fire risks in urban buildings by analyzing the relationship between land use patterns, types of building use, and fire disaster risk in the metropolitan area of Ibadan, Nigeria. Data were collected through a field survey using a structured questionnaire supplemented by focus group discussion. A multistage sampling procedure was used to select 88 neighborhoods and 1,803 building occupants were selected using systematic random sampling. Findings indicate incompatible land use developments in many areas of the city. The study revealed that one out of five buildings were not accessible to fire-fighting vehicles owing to inadequate road widths (43.7%) and pot-holes (39.8%). One out of seven buildings (14.1%) had no water supply. About 10% of the buildings had emergency doors on permanent lock. About half of the building occupants relied on power supply sources that increased risks of fire occurrence (52%) and 49.4% used unsustainable waste disposal methods that threatened fire safety. The paper concluded that land use attributes, such as accessibility, compatibility of uses, water supply sources, sources of electricity supply and solid waste disposal method, and building characteristics, such as burglar proofs, nature of entrance/exit, type of lighting fuel are factors that are relevant in fire disaster risk analysis.

Full-Scale Fire Extinguishing Experiments to Analyze the Adaptability of Firefighting Facilities for Electric Vehicle Fires in Underground Parking Lots

Recently, the number of electric vehicles (EVs) has rapidly increased owing to an increase in international environmental problems and domestic eco-friendly policies. With the increase in the number of EVs, the number of EV fires is also increasing. However, full-scale experiments for fire risk analysis or verification studies on the adaptability of present firefighting facilities are lacking , except for EV fire suppression experiments. In this study, to analyze the adaptability of firefighting facilities to EV fires in underground parking lots, fire extinguishing experiments on EV fires were conducted by considering the conditions of firefighting facilities applied to existing buildings. The first experiment simulated a current underground parking sprinkler system (pre-action system). In the second experiment, a lower sprinkler system was added to the upper sprinkler system. Experiment #1 confirmed that preventing the spread of thermal runaway in EV battery packs was difficult but blocking fire spread to adjacent vehicles was possible. Experiment #2 confirmed that thermal runaway occurred in approximately 50% of EV battery packs. These experiments concluded that fire spread to adjacent vehicles could be blocked by the spray from the upper sprinkler system.

Numerical simulation of gas diffusion and explosion limit of VOCs in containment integrated leak rate test

CILRT is an important work in the overhaul of nuclear power plants. VOCs from paints and cleaners used in the containment during the overhaul will migrate inside the containment, and the numerous rooms and compartments inside the containment make the air flow impeded, and the VOCs may be enriched to bring combustion risk. The complete fire risk analysis method includes volatilization kinetics of chemicals, mixture explosion limits, and numerical simulation of VOCs diffusion and migration. The volatilization rate at the lowest room temperature of 20°C is used as a conservative input, the complement of CAITA realistic model is used as the flow domain, and the geometry is appropriately simplified, and the steady ventilation process, the internal flow and the laws of diffusion and agglomeration of 12 kinds of VOCs gases in the 9-h pressure-holding process are investigated by Computational Fluid Dynamics. The simulation results of steady ventilation show that the VOCs gases are almost uniformly carried by the air to all spaces inside the containment, and the explosion risk is low. The concentration field of the steady ventilation process was taken as the initial boundary condition and unsteady state simulation of the 9-h holding pressure process was performed. The results show that the gas flow inside the containment basically stops after 3456 s of pressure holding. With the extension of time, the VOCs gases accumulate at the bottoms of the three lower layers of the containment under the effect of laminar diffusion and gravitational settling, where the total concentration of the mixed gases reaches the highest at the bottom of the lowest layer. The total concentration of the VOCs gas mixture was below the lower explosion limit throughout the 9-h pressure-holding process, and the explosion risk was low.

Fire Risk Analysis: A Proposal for Historic Buildings in Brazil

ABSTRACT Fire risk analysis is increasingly being applied to buildings as a tool for managing the risk of a fire event, and the extent of its consequences. However, such methods give different results depending on the fire code under which the building was designed, which can compromise the effectiveness of this type of analysis. Given that regulatory requirements for fire safety differ from place to place, methodologies focused on solely one legislation may not be applicable to buildings constructed under other legislation. This paper presents a proposal for a fire risk analysis methodology based on established parameters, independent of local legislation requirements. The method proposed in this article is called Cálculo Escalonar de Perigo de Incêndio — CEPI (Scalar Calculation of Fire Hazard). The aim is to make a free method, available to fire safety professionals; and to provide a practical tool for measuring fire safety in Brazilian heritage buildings.

Influence of mountain pine beetle outbreaks on large fires in British Columbia

AbstractA key uncertainty in understanding climate change effects on wildfires in western North America is the role of mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreaks in driving wildfire occurrence and severity. In this study, we investigated the complex relationship between MPB outbreaks, other environmental factors, and wildfire occurrence in British Columbia (BC), Canada. We adopted a fire risk analysis method developed for fire occurrence prediction to separate the effect of changing fuel conditions on wildfires in BC when neither post‐outbreak fuel conditions, climate, nor management is stationary. Using lasso‐logistic regression and a novel variable ranking procedure, we determined that MPB‐affected areas had 1.7 times more large lightning‐caused fires (≥100 ha), as the likelihood of large lightning‐caused fires increased by 40% in these areas and likely contributed to the increased burned areas in BC. Meanwhile, the likelihood of large human‐caused fires decreased in MPB‐affected areas. Fire weather factors were most influential for both lightning‐ and human‐caused fires, while anthropogenic factors were most influential for human‐caused fires. Fuel dynamics following MPB outbreaks vary across the wide distribution of a host species such as lodgepole pine, at stand and landscape levels. Furthermore, the expression of the effects of MPB and other disturbances on wildfire is also conditional on, as well as confounded with, many other environmental factors and management activities that vary across western North America. Therefore, a lack of consensus on the impacts of MPB on wildfire is not surprising.

Pelatihan pencegahan dan penanggulangan bahaya kebakaran di fire station Bandar Udara Internasional Soekarno-Hatta

The importance of awareness of fire risks in the community, especially at airports, encourages the need for effective prevention and countermeasures. Community service by lecturers of the D.III PKP Study Program through this training aims to provide knowledge and skills to the community of airport service users, especially workers in tenants, regarding how to prevent and overcome fires. Involving the Tri Darma Perguruan Tinggi concept, this training not only touches on aspects of fire prevention but also discusses fire phenomena, risk analysis, emergency response, and fire management. It is hoped that training participants will benefit them through increased knowledge and understanding that can increase awareness of fire risks so that the community around Soekarno-Hatta International Airport can be better prepared and trained in dealing with potential fire hazards.

Analysis of fire risk and fire prevention of architectural heritage: A case study of mount wutai in China

As precious historical and cultural heritages in China, ancient architecture belongs to non-renewable resources. However, in recent years, fires in ancient buildings occurred from time to time, causing irreparable losses to Chinas precious historical and cultural heritage. In order to explore the existing problems of fire safety in ancient buildings and better prevent fire accidents, this paper starts with an introduction of the structural characteristics of ancient buildings in China, and then, on the premise of combining the characteristics of geographical culture, architectural structure, and materials of Wutai Mountain temple group, the paper also analyzes the fire risk of ancient buildings. According to the practical work experience in fire protection of Mount Wutai, feasible and reasonable fire protection measures of ancient buildings are put forward, including the enhancement of fire resistance of building materials, the related equipment and system, and the safety management, so as to minimize the fire risk and fire loss and achieve the purpose of protecting gorgeous ancient building civilization.

Risk coupling analysis under accident scenario evolution: A methodological construct and application.

Dynamic processes in various fields exhibit risk coupling phenomena, but existing risk analysis studies tend to ignore the risk coupling effects of dynamic scenarios. Considering the principles of digitization, objective quantification, and the full process that should be adopted in the risk coupling analysis, an integrated risk coupling analysis framework is proposed. Specifically, the weighted Eclat algorithm is used to mine the risk association rules, then the key risk factors are extracted by social network analysis, and the stochastic Petri net is used to complete the construction, simulation, and evolution of accident scenarios. This universal framework can analyze the risk phenomena of accident scenario evolution in a process-oriented manner and decouple risks based on key risk factors and disconnect the chain of the accident scenario evolution process. Finally, the proposed framework is applied to the coupled analysis of fire risk in Chinese urban communities to verify its feasibility and scientific validity.

Fire hazard and risk analysis of large fuel storage tank in IOC terminal

Fires and explosions in large oil storage tanks terminal cause significant loss of property and casualties and are always the concern of the world. To have proper understanding and knowledge about tank fires in terminals a detail study has been done considering various factors like safe separation distance, thermal radiation intensity and deluge water requirement. This paper offers the study of fire hazard especially the radiative heat flux absorbed by adjoining storage tanks. Large storage tanks fire has significant amount of energy release and causes strong thermal radiation to the properties and structures nearby. The thermal radiation intensity has been determined by providing safe separation distance recommended by various standards along with its permissible thermal radiation level for adjoining tanks. The calculated amount of mass flow rate of water required ranges in between 0.09 and 0.23 l/m2s which significantly varies from the recommendations of different code. However, by not ensuring required amount of water as a protective measure to safeguard the target tanks will put its integrity in doubt.

Geoinformatics and Machine Learning for Comprehensive Fire Risk Assessment and Management in Peri-Urban Environments: A Building-Block-Level Approach

Forest fires can result in loss of life, damage to infrastructure, and adverse environmental impacts. This study showcases an integrated approach for conducting high-detail fire risk assessment and supporting strategic planning and management of fire events in peri-urban areas that are susceptible to forest fires. The presented methodology encompasses fire hazard modeling, vulnerability and exposure assessment, and in situ observations. Numerous fire hazard scenarios were tested, simulating the spatiotemporal spread of fire events under different wind characteristics. The vulnerability of the studied areas was assessed by combining population data (density and age) and building characteristics, while the exposure parameter employed land value (EUR/m2) as an indicator for qualitatively estimating potential economic effects in the study area. Field campaigns facilitated the identification and recording of critical areas and points, including high-risk buildings and population gathering areas, which subsequently informed the mitigation and fire management planning suggestions. Moreover, field recordings acted as an iterative process for validating and updating the fire risk maps. This research work utilizes state-of-the-art techniques to achieve an analysis of fire risk at a building-block level. Overall, the study presents an applied and end-to-end methodology for effectively addressing forest fire risk in peri-urban areas.

Fire risk modeling: an integrated and data-driven approach applied to Sicily

Abstract. Wildfires are key not only to landscape transformation and vegetation succession, but also to socio-ecological values loss. Fire risk mapping can help to manage the most vulnerable and relevant ecosystems impacted by wildfires. However, few studies provide accessible daily dynamic results at different spatio-temporal scales. We develop a fire risk model for Sicily (Italy), an iconic case of the Mediterranean Basin, integrating a fire hazard model with an exposure and vulnerability analysis under present and future conditions. The integrated model is data-driven but can run dynamically at a daily time step, providing spatially and temporally explicit results through the k.LAB (Knowledge Laboratory) software. This software provides an environment for input data integration, combining methods and data such as geographic information systems, remote sensing and Bayesian network algorithms. All data and models are semantically annotated, open and downloadable in agreement with the FAIR principles (findable, accessible, interoperable and reusable). The fire risk analysis reveals that 45 % of vulnerable areas of Sicily have a high probability of fire occurrence in 2050. The risk model outputs also include qualitative risk indexes, which can make the results more understandable for non-technical stakeholders. We argue that this approach is well suited to aiding in landscape and fire risk management, under both current and climate change conditions.

Risk Analysis of Fire and Explosion of Hydrogen-Gasoline Hybrid Refueling Station Based on Accident Risk Assessment Method for Industrial System

Hydrogen–gasoline hybrid refueling stations can minimize construction and management costs and save land resources and are gradually becoming one of the primary modes for hydrogen refueling stations. However, catastrophic consequences may be caused as both hydrogen and gasoline are flammable and explosive. It is crucial to perform an effective risk assessment to prevent fire and explosion accidents at hybrid refueling stations. This study conducted a risk assessment of the refueling area of a hydrogen–gasoline hybrid refueling station based on the improved Accident Risk Assessment Method for Industrial Systems (ARAMIS). An improved probabilistic failure model was used to make ARAMIS more applicable to hydrogen infrastructure. Additionally, the accident consequences, i.e., jet fires and explosions, were simulated using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) methods replacing the traditional empirical model. The results showed that the risk levels at the station house and the road near the refueling area were 5.80 × 10−5 and 3.37 × 10−4, respectively, and both were within the acceptable range. Furthermore, the hydrogen dispenser leaked and caused a jet fire, and the flame ignited the exposed gasoline causing a secondary accident, considered the most hazardous accident scenario. A case study was conducted to demonstrate the practicability of the methodology. This method is believed to provide trustworthy decisions for establishing safe distances from dispensers and optimizing the arrangement of the refueling area.

Assessing large landscape patterns of potential fire connectivity using circuit methods

ContextMinimizing negative impacts of wildfire is a major societal objective in fire-prone landscapes. Models of fire connectivity can aid in understanding and managing wildfires by analyzing potential fire spread and conductance patterns. We define ‘fire connectivity’ as the landscape’s capacity to facilitate fire transmission from one point on the landscape to another.ObjectivesOur objective was to develop an approach for modeling fire connectivity patterns representing potential fire spread and relative flow across a broad landscape extent, particularly in the management-relevant context of fuel breaks.MethodsWe applied an omnidirectional circuit theory algorithm to model fire connectivity in the Great Basin of the western United States. We used predicted rates of fire spread to approximate conductance and calculated current densities to identify connections among areas with high spread rates. We compared existing and planned fuel breaks with fire connectivity patterns.ResultsFire connectivity and relative flow outputs were characterized by spatial heterogeneity in the landscape’s capacity to transmit fire. We found that existing fuel break networks were denser in areas with relatively diffuse and impeded flow patterns, rather than in locations with channelized flow.ConclusionsThis approach could be paired with traditional fire behavior and risk analyses to better understand wildfire spread as well as direct strategic placement of individual fuel breaks within larger networks to constrain fire spread. Thus, our findings may offer local- to landscape-level support for management actions that aim to disrupt fire spread and mitigate the costs of fire on the landscape.

Risk analysis of gas dispersion, fire and explosion due to gas pipeline leak at Onshore Receiving Facility of PT XYZ in Muara Karang using Aloha Software 5.4

This research identifies hazards, assesses risks, and recommends mitigations for the risk of gas pipeline leaks at Onshore Receiving Facility (ORF). The objectives of this study are to determine the probability of gas pipeline leaks at ORF and the level of risk of gas pipeline leaks at ORF using a risk matrix, to model gas dispersion, fire, and explosion using ALOHA software to assess the consequences of gas pipeline leaks at ORF, and to provide risk mitigation recommendations to the company if the risk level is unacceptable and the existing risk mitigation measures are not effective. This study is qualitative research in which the author develops a model from theoretical framework to conceptual framework, and then describes the results of the analysis descriptively. The hazard identification approach used historical data from the Hazard Operability’s Study (HAZOP) data, which found that the highest risk level was gas pipeline leaks in pipelines with a pressure of 350 psi. The probability of pipeline leaks was obtained from the Generic Failure Frequency (GFF) table from the existing Risk-Based Inspection (RBI) study. Consequence analysis was performed using modeling software ALOHA and MARPLOT with gas dispersion, fire, and explosion scenarios. The analysis showed that the risk level of gas dispersion, fire, and explosion scenarios were all still acceptable, referring to the criteria of NFPA 59A. Therefore, it can be concluded that the risk level of gas pipeline leaks at ORF is still acceptable, and the existing risk mitigation measures are sufficient.

Research and Analysis of Subway Platform Fire Risk and Control Strategy

Research and Analysis of Subway Platform Fire Risk and Control Strategy