Alternative Policy Scenarios Research Articles

Urban freight, parking and pricing policies: An evaluation from a transport providers’ perspective

This paper investigates transport providers’ preferences for alternative loading bays and pricing policies. It estimates the importance of loading bays, the probability of finding them free and offers strategically relevant information to policy makers. The results underline the relevance of both preference heterogeneity and non-linear attribute effects. Three classes of agents are detected with substantially different preferences also characterized by non-linear sensitivity to attribute level variations. The specific freight sector, frequency of accesses and number of employees are all relevant covariates explaining different preferences for alternative transport providers’ categories. The implications of the results obtained are illustrated by simulating alternative policy scenarios. In conclusion, the paper underlines the need for rigorous policy analysis if the correct policy outcomes are to be estimated with an adequate level of accuracy.

Exploring land use policy scenarios with the use of a cellular automata-based model: urban sprawl containment and sustainable development in Thessaloniki

This study addresses the issue of urban sprawl through the application of a cellular automata (CA)-based model in the area of Thessaloniki, Greece. The model integrates a multiple regression model at the regional level with a CA model at the local level. New urban land is allocated in a disaggregated field of land units (cells) taking into account a wide range of data. Particular emphasis is placed on the way zoning regulations and land availability data are inserted into the model, so that alternative land use policy scenarios could be examined. Thessaloniki, a typical Mediterranean city, is used as a case study. The model is used to compare two scenarios of urban growth up to year 2030; the first one assuming a continuation of existing trends, whereas the second one assuming the enactment of various land use zoning regulations in order to contain urban sprawl.

Building a Microsimulation Model of Heroin Use Careers in Australia

Illicit heroin use is a worldwide problem, with significant health and social costs. Treatment is known to be effective in changing heroin use habits, but it often needs to be provided over a lifetime, with people cycling in and out of treatment. It is therefore important to capture a long-term perspective on heroin use careers. The aim of this project was to build a lifetime microsimulation model of heroin using careers. This paper describes the conceptual logic of the model, the input parameters and the verification and validation results. A microsimulation model was chosen as the most appropriate simulation platform with 9 states, and 111,400 individuals (aged between 18 and 60) each with gender, HIV (human immunodeficiency virus) and HCV (hepatitis C) status, and treatment history. Probabilities associated with crime commission and individually calculated lengths of stay in each state were determined from multiple datasets. The model included costs associated with treatment provision, healthcare services, criminal activity, life years lost, and family benefit of treatment. The final model represented 42 years of a heroin use career for a cohort based on Australian (New South Wales) data. Individuals cycle into and out of heroin using states (including abstinence), as well as treatment and prison states. We were able to build a stable, tractable model and verified all parameters. Validation against external data sources revealed high validity. While there are limitations associated with any model, the heroin career model now has the potential to be used for simulations of alternate policy scenarios.

Urban freight transport and policy changes: Improving decision makers' awareness via an agent-specific approach

This paper derives policy implications from agent-specific data with respect to the implementation of policy changes in the case of urban freight transport. In particular, the research, based on the case of Rome's Limited Traffic Zone, discusses alternative policy scenarios. After describing attribute definition and selection, questionnaire administration, data collection and treatment, willingness to pay estimates are calculated.The paper tests, from a policy-maker's perspective, the implications deriving from the presence of inter-agent heterogeneity and the specific policy composition of an improving and equally impacting interventions on all agent-types' utility. The paper shows how an agent-specific approach might increase decision makers' awareness and help taking better decisions.

Can we interpret the evolution of coastal land use conflicts? Using Artificial Neural Networks to model the effects of alternative development policies

Environmental conflicts in coastal areas are determined by the interaction of global and local phenomena. Identifying the factors characterising the evolution of conflicts in relation to spatial dynamics is complex. Analysing related data and interpreting the results necessitate the use of methods that take this complexity into account. Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) have been used to accomplish this task. Although ANN have been widely implemented in physics, natural science and engineering, their application in spatial and social science is still in an early stage.We present the results of a study concerning land use conflict in the area of Civitavecchia, the main harbour of the Rome metropolitan area. Local environmental issues are air pollution from a large thermal power plant, the movement of ferries, cruise ships, and increased individual commuting. We simulate alternative policy scenarios for the conflict under study in a wider context involving 27 cases. Results indicate that only an environment-led policy is capable of reducing the intensity of the conflict. The other two proposed development tracks focussing on economic efficiency and social equity would slightly aggravate the conflict.

Can Green Car Taxes Restore Efficiency? Evidence from the Japanese New Car Market

To quantify the economic impacts of Japan’s feebate policy, a random-coefficients logit model is estimated for quarterly automobile sales between 2007 and 2012 from the Japanese new car market. For identification of the structural parameters, we exploit the policy-induced variation in effective car prices and the location of product-specific vehicle taxes as instruments. The estimated demand system allows us to simulate counterfactual Bertrand-Nash equilibria in response to alternative policy scenarios. Our results indicate that Japan’s feebate policy induced a sizable increase in economic surplus, yet only a small improvement in sales-weighted average fuel efficiency, relative to the no-policy counterfactual. We also design an optimal feebate policy, which maximizes total economic surplus subject to a tax revenue constraint, by explicitly accounting for market power, product attributes, and carbon dioxide emissions rates. The policy is predicted to induce sizable improvements in both economic surplus and average fuel efficiency over Japan’s feebate policy without requiring any decrease in tax revenues.

Integrated assessment of cropping patterns under different policy scenarios in Quzhou County, North China Plain

Agricultural land use is affected by government policies and leads to different consequences of regional sustainability. In this work, changes in cropping patterns including acreage, cropping locations and management-related environmental impacts were simulated under various policy scenarios for Quzhou County, China. This county is in China's major agricultural region, the North China Plain. Four dominant crop systems were categorized (winter wheat/summer maize, winter wheat/summer maize/spring maize, cotton, and vegetables) and analyzed, following two alternative policy scenarios that either prioritized government funding to subsidize crop production (“subsidy” scenario) or promoted advanced irrigation techniques (“technique” scenario). Input–output coefficients for all four crop systems were determined, mainly irrigation demand, yield, and price of produce, but other factors like a limited area of arable land and scarce regional water resources were also considered. For the simulation, a LINDO Inc. system was linked with the CLUE (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects) model. Temporal changes of crop systems were simulated with the LINDO system, whereas spatial dynamics of cropping patterns were simulated with the CLUE model, based on land suitability maps. The results show that crop patterns changed variably with time under the two scenarios, and water availability was the primary constraint on sustainability of land use. Under the subsidy scenario, winter wheat/summer maize/spring maize became dominant across the entire county, replacing other crop systems. In contrast, the vegetable system gradually occupied farmland surrounding the township under the technique scenario. The different policies produced opposite consequences for regional sustainability. Although a “subsidy” policy contributed to farmers’ income, it did not encourage water conservation for sustainable crop production, leading to land abandonment because of water shortage. In contrast, the “technique” policy partially cut direct financial benefits to farmers, but promoted water conservation and made a substantial contribution to agricultural sustainability.

Assessing the Effectiveness of Payments for Ecosystem Services: an Agent-Based Modeling Approach

Payments for ecosystem services (PES) have increasingly been implemented to protect and restore ecosystems worldwide. The effectiveness of conservation investments in PES may differ under alternative policy scenarios and may not be sustainable because of uncertainties in human responses to policies and dynamic human-nature interactions. To assess the impacts of these interactions on the effectiveness of PES programs, we developed a spatially explicit agent-based model: human and natural interactions under policies (HANIP). We used HANIP to study the effectiveness of China's Natural Forest Conservation Program (NFCP) and alternative policy scenarios in a coupled human-nature system, China's Wolong Nature Reserve, where indigenous people's use of fuelwood affects forests. We estimated the effects of the current NFCP, which provides a cash payment, and an alternative payment scenario that provides an electricity payment by comparing forest dynamics under these policies to forest dynamics under a scenario in which no payment is provided. In 2007, there were 337 km² of forests in the study area of 515 km². Under the baseline projection in which no payment is provided, the forest area is expected to be 234 km² in 2030. Under the current NFCP, there are likely to be 379 km² of forests in 2030, or an increase of 145 km² of forests to the baseline projection. If the cash payment is replaced with an electricity payment, there are likely to be 435 km² of forests in 2030, or an increase of 201 km² of forests to the baseline projection. However, the effectiveness of the NFCP may be threatened by the behavior of newly formed households if they are not included in the payment scheme. In addition, the effects of socio-demographic factors on forests will also differ under different policy scenarios. Human and natural interactions under policies (HANIP) and its modeling framework may also be used to assess the effectiveness of many other PES programs around the world.

Encouraging Sustainable Transport Choices in American Households: Results from an Empirically Grounded Agent-Based Model

The transport sector needs to go through an extended process of decarbonisation to counter the threat of climate change. Unfortunately, the International Energy Agency forecasts an enormous growth in the number of cars and greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Two issues can thus be identified: (1) the need for a new methodology that could evaluate the policy performances ex-ante and (2) the need for more effective policies. To help address these issues, we developed an Agent-Based Model called Mobility USA aimed at: (1) testing whether this could be an effective approach in analysing ex-ante policy implementation in the transport sector; and (2) evaluating the effects of alternative policy scenarios on commuting behaviours in the USA. Particularly, we tested the effects of two sets of policies, namely market-based and preference-change ones. The model results suggest that this type of agent-based approach will provide a useful tool for testing policy interventions and their effectiveness.

Modeling urban metabolism of Beijing city, China: with a coupled system dynamics: emergy model

Chinese cities are plagued by the rise in resource and energy input and output over the last decade. At the same time, the scale and pace of economic development sweeping across Chinese cities have revived the debate about urban metabolisms, which could be simply seen as the ratio of output to resource and energy input in urban systems. In this study, an emergy (meaning the equivalent solar energy) accounting, sustainable indices of urban metabolisms, and an urban metabolic system dynamics model, are developed in support of the research task on Chinese cities 'metabolisms and their related policies. The dynamic simulation model used in the paper is capable of synthesizing component-level knowledge into system behavior simulation at an integrated level, which is directly useful for simulating and evaluating a variety of decision actions and their dynamic consequences. For the study case, interactions among a number of Beijing's urban emergy components within a time frame of 20 years (from 2010 to 2030) are examined dynamically. Six alternative policy scenarios are implemented into the system simulation. Our results indicate that Beijing's current model of urban metabolism-tertiary industry oriented development mode-would deliver prosperity to the city. However, the analysis also shows that this mode of urban metabolism would weaken urban self-support capacity due primarily to the large share of imported and exported emergy in the urban metabolic system. The keys of improving the efficiency of urban metabolism include the priority on the renewable resource and energy, increase in environmental investment and encouragement on innovative technologies of resource and energy utilization, et al.

Linking Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services: Current Uncertainties and the Necessary Next Steps

Understanding when biodiversity conservation and ecosystem-service maintenance are compatible is needed within the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES). Here, we evaluate current understanding and uncertainties of the effects of biodiversity change on selected ecosystem services and suggest ways to further understand the links between biodiversity change and ecosystem services. We reviewed experiments, observations, and syntheses on the effects of species richness on six ecosystem services: forage, timber, fisheries, climate regulation, agricultural pest control, and water quality. Establishing a direct link from biodiversity to ecosystem-service provision has often been precluded by limited data (i.e., the amount, consistency, or generality of the data) and a mismatch between the variables measured and the final ecosystem service that is relevant to stakeholders. We suggest that encompassing syntheses and a network of interdisciplinary experiments under realistic conditions could fill these gaps and could inform the outcomes of alternative management and policy scenarios within IPBES.

Long-term optimization of United Arab Emirates energy future: Policy implications

This paper presents an evaluation of future energy-supply strategies for the United Arab Emirates (UAE) power sector. This paper also identifies the prospects for the further economic development of the country while addressing energy security issues and mitigating environmental impacts. It explores technology choices to meet the future demand in the most cost efficient way based on existing and innovated technologies. The analyses are done for UAE energy system applying MARKAL model. Different policies such as a CO2 emission reduction constraint, renewable energy production targets, and subsidy minimization through international benchmarking for domestic gas prices are applied for this analysis. The results show that the alternative policy scenarios directly allocate clean advanced and renewable technologies to generate electricity. The alternative policy scenarios reduce CO2 emissions in power sector. The simulation results from model show that alternative sustainable energy development policies expected total system cost is not significantly higher. The cumulative system cost increases, relative to the base scenario by 9% and 11% for CO2 emission reduction and renewable target production scenarios, respectively. Use of primary resources to meet the demand is reduced and the supply of primary energy resources is diversified.

To Count or Not to Count Deaths: Reranking Effects in Health Distribution Evaluation

Populations' structures and sizes can be a result of healthcare policy decisions. We use a two-period theoretical framework and a dynamic microsimulation model to examine the consequences of this assertion on the appraisal of alternative health policy options. Results show that standard welfare-in-health measures are sensitive to changes in populations' sizes, in that taking into account the (virtual) existence of the dead can alter the ranking of policy options. Disregarding differences in the survivals induced by alternative policies can bias programmes' ranking in favour of less live-saving policies. The paper alerts on the risk of policy misranking by the use of ex-post cross-sectional analyses, neglecting deaths occurring in the past as well as counterfactual deaths in alternative policy scenarios.

NO<sub>x</sub> emissions in China: historical trends and future perspectives

Abstract. Nitrogen oxides (NOx) are key pollutants for the improvement of ambient air quality. Within this study we estimated the historical NOx emissions in China for the period 1995–2010, and calculated future NOx emissions every five years until 2030 under six emission scenarios. Driven by the fast growth of energy consumption, we estimate the NOx emissions in China increased rapidly from 11.0 Mt in 1995 to 26.1 Mt in 2010. Power plants, industry and transportation were major sources of NOx emissions, accounting for 28.4%, 34.0%, and 25.4% of the total NOx emissions in 2010, respectively. Two energy scenarios, a business as usual scenario (BAU) and an alternative policy scenario (PC), were developed to project future energy consumption. In 2030, total energy consumption is projected to increase by 64% and 27% from 2010 level respectively. Three sets of end-of-pipe pollution control measures, including baseline, progressive, and stringent control case, were developed for each energy scenario, thereby constituting six emission scenarios. By 2030, the total NOx emissions are projected to increase (compared to 2010) by 36% in the baseline while policy cases result in reduction up to 61% in the most ambitious case with stringent control measures. More than a third of the reduction achieved by 2030 between least and most ambitious scenario comes from power sector, and more than half is distributed equally between industry and transportation sectors. Selective catalytic reduction dominates the NOx emission reductions in power plants, while life style changes, control measures for industrial boilers and cement production are major contributors to reductions in industry. Timely enforcement of legislation on heavy-duty vehicles would contribute significantly to NOx emission reductions. About 30% of the NOx emission reduction in 2020 and 40% of the NOx emission reduction in 2030 could be treated as the ancillary benefit of energy conservation. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to explore the impact of key factors on future emissions.

Aging population scenarios: an Australian experience

During the past decade, there has been wide public discussion about the effects of population and immigration policies. There is some consensus that an older population imposes economic costs but uncontrolled population growth imposes congestion and environmental burdens. While many realize that policies which restrict population tend to exacerbate aging, the inevitable trade-off is not widely acknowledged. Fewer still appreciate that there is a sustainable age distribution that is largely imposed on us by nature that cannot be defeated in the long term. In this paper, we look at the ‘aging issue’ for Australia by looking at the total population and age distribution as a joint outcome. For ease of interpretation, the age distribution is converted into a required retirement age (RRA) to maintain dependency ratios at 2010 levels. We examine the effects of alternative policy scenarios on total population and RRAs, benchmarked against a hypothetical population in zero population growth equilibrium. We account for differing demographic groups of immigrants and emigrants as well as trends in mortality. Policy scenarios can be well summarized by plotting the trajectory of the two outcomes, total population and RRA, with the equilibrium values as axes.

Projected impact of a sodium consumption reduction initiative in Argentina: an analysis from the CVD policy model--Argentina.

BackgroundCardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in adults in Argentina. Sodium reduction policies targeting processed foods were implemented in 2011 in Argentina, but the impact has not been evaluated. The aims of this study are to use Argentina-specific data on sodium excretion and project the impact of Argentina’s sodium reduction policies under two scenarios - the 2-year intervention currently being undertaken or a more persistent 10 year sodium reduction strategy.MethodsWe used Argentina-specific data on sodium excretion by sex and projected the impact of the current strategy on sodium consumption and blood pressure decrease. We assessed the projected impact of sodium reduction policies on CVD using the Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) Policy Model, adapted to Argentina, modeling two alternative policy scenarios over the next decade.ResultsOur study finds that the initiative to reduce sodium consumption currently in place in Argentina will have substantial impact on CVD over the next 10 years. Under the current proposed policy of 2-year sodium reduction, the mean sodium consumption is projected to decrease by 319–387 mg/day. This decrease is expected to translate into an absolute reduction of systolic blood pressure from 0.93 mmHg to 1.81 mmHg. This would avert about 19,000 all-cause mortality, 13,000 total myocardial infarctions, and 10,000 total strokes over the next decade. A more persistent sodium reduction strategy would yield even greater CVD benefits.ConclusionThe impact of the Argentinean initiative would be effective in substantially reducing mortality and morbidity from CVD. This paper provides evidence-based support to continue implementing strategies to reduce sodium consumption at a population level.

Climate change mitigation policies and poverty in developing countries

Mitigation of the potential impacts of climate change is one of the leading policy concerns of the 21st century. However, there continues to be heated debate about the nature, the content and, most importantly, the impact of the policy actions needed to limit greenhouse gas emissions. One contributing factor is the lack of systematic evidence on the impact of mitigation policy on the welfare of the poor in developing countries. In this letter we consider two alternative policy scenarios, one in which only the Annex I countries take action, and the second in which the first policy is accompanied by a forest carbon sequestration policy in the non-Annex regions. Using an economic climate policy analysis framework, we assess the poverty impacts of the above policy scenarios on seven socio-economic groups in 14 developing countries. We find that the Annex-I-only policy is poverty friendly, since it enhances the competitiveness of non-Annex countries—particularly in agricultural production. However, once forest carbon sequestration incentives in the non-Annex regions are added to the policy package, the overall effect is to raise poverty in the majority of our sample countries. The reason for this outcome is that the dominant impacts of this policy are to raise returns to land, reduce agricultural output and raise food prices. Since poor households rely primarily on their own labor for income, and generally own little land, and since they also spend a large share of their income on food, they are generally hurt on both the earning and the spending fronts. This result is troubling, since forest carbon sequestration—particularly through avoided deforestation—is a promising, low cost option for climate change mitigation.

Assessment of the impact of renewable energy and energy efficiency policies on the Macedonian energy sector development

The main goal of this paper is to examine and quantify how the development of the energy system in Macedonia could be influenced by policies and programs that promote energy efficiency and renewable energy, in terms of energy security and diversification, economic competitiveness, and CO2 mitigation. For this purpose, the MARKAL-Macedonia national energy planning model was used. These policies are explored by comparing a reference (business-as-usual) development of energy system with three alternative policy scenarios: (1) Renewable Energy (RE) Scenario—introducing a renewable energy target by 2020 in line with that proposed by the Energy Community; (2) Energy Efficiency (EE) Scenario—exploring the range of energy efficiency measures that are the most cost-effective means to meet national targets aimed at reducing final energy consumption; and (3) Combined RE and EE Scenario—a combination of supply-side and demand-side approaches that examine the resulting synergies of these policy goals. For each scenario, the implications of least-cost investment options for new capacity builds, investment spending requirements, electricity prices, fuel expenditures, and carbon dioxide emissions were assessed. The analyses have shown that even under the Reference scenario, the reliance on electricity import will be reduced, as a result of increased gas import. The RE scenario further reduces the overall import by 3% while the EE scenario by 12%. Total discounted costs of the energy system in the Reference scenario is estimated to nearly €36 billion, with investment of €3.773 billion for 2.803 GW of new electricity generation capacity needed to meet the increased demand by 2030. The proposed RE target increases the cost of the energy system only by 0.13%, due to the availability of additional renewables, particularly hydro, biomass, and biofuels. The combination of the policies that promote increased energy efficiency will decrease the discounted energy system costs of 0.24% (€87 million net present value). The baseline evolution of the energy system results in 59% increase of CO2 emissions over the planning horizon. The analyzed RE and EE policies show strong synergies with a move to a lower carbon economy, resulting in cumulative CO2 emissions reduction of 3.7% triggered by an overall drop in consumption and less use of fossil fuels.

Projection of the burden of Type 2 diabetes mellitus in Germany: a demographic modelling approach to estimate the direct medical excess costs from 2010 to 2040

To model the future costs of Type 2 diabetes in Germany, taking into account demographic changes, disease dynamics and undiagnosed cases. Using a time-discrete Markov model, the prevalence of diabetes (diagnosed/undiagnosed) between 2010 and 2040 was estimated and linked with cost weights. Demographic, epidemiological and economic scenarios were modelled. Inputs to the model included the official population forecasts, prevalence, incidence and mortality rates, proportions of undiagnosed cases, health expenditure and cost ratios of an individual with (diagnosed/undiagnosed) diabetes to an individual without diabetes. The outcomes were the case numbers and associated annual direct medical excess costs of Type 2 diabetes from a societal perspective in 2010€. In the base case, the case numbers of diabetes will grow from 5 million (2.8 million diagnosed) in 2010 to a maximum of 7.9 million (4.6 million diagnosed) in 2037. From 2010 to 2040, the prevalence rate amonf individuals ≥40 years old will increase from 10.5 to 16.3%. The annual costs of diabetes will increase by 79% from €11.8 billion in 2010 to €21.1 billion in 2040 (€9.5 billion to €17.6 billion for diagnosed cases). The projected increase in costs will be attributable to demographic changes and disease dynamics, and will be enhanced by higher per capita costs with advancing age. Better epidemiological and economic data regarding diabetes care in Germany would improve the forecasting accuracy. The method used in the present study can anticipate the effects of alternative policy scenarios and can easily be adapted to other chronic diseases.

Training Induction Mentors: Alternative Policy Scenarios of Romanian Educational System

Even though mentoring beginning teachers is considered as being an important component of induction, how mentors should be prepared for their role is are rarely addressed in the literature. In this paper we will try to overview the level of regulations in induction mentor education and to identify a couple of policy scenarios for induction mentor training in Romania. As conclusion, we will propose a couple of dilemmas that arise in our analysis and that constitute the ground for further research.