Abstract
The transport sector needs to go through an extended process of decarbonisation to counter the threat of climate change. Unfortunately, the International Energy Agency forecasts an enormous growth in the number of cars and greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Two issues can thus be identified: (1) the need for a new methodology that could evaluate the policy performances ex-ante and (2) the need for more effective policies. To help address these issues, we developed an Agent-Based Model called Mobility USA aimed at: (1) testing whether this could be an effective approach in analysing ex-ante policy implementation in the transport sector; and (2) evaluating the effects of alternative policy scenarios on commuting behaviours in the USA. Particularly, we tested the effects of two sets of policies, namely market-based and preference-change ones. The model results suggest that this type of agent-based approach will provide a useful tool for testing policy interventions and their effectiveness.
Highlights
During the last few decades, many policies have been implemented to address the ever-growing emission trends generated by the transport sector
CO2 emissions from this sector are projected to experience a 300% growth in the same period [3]. Note that the latter figure is almost five times higher than the reduction recommended by the International Energy Agency (IEA) to meet Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change‘s (IPCC)
The analysis below is centred on an agent-based model, i.e., ―a computational method that enables a researcher to create, analyse, and experiment with models composed of agents that interact within an environment‖ [24]
Summary
During the last few decades, many policies have been implemented to address the ever-growing emission trends generated by the transport sector. Sustainability 2014, 6 sustainable travels, the sector still accounts for 22% of global CO2 emissions [1] and up to 50% in cities [2]. CO2 emissions from this sector are projected to experience a 300% growth in the same period [3]. Note that the latter figure is almost five times higher than the reduction recommended by the IEA to meet Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change‘s (IPCC). The attention given to the transport sector for its potential contribution to the reduction in global
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