Actual Vote Research Articles

A normal vote approach to electoral change: Presidential elections, 1828?1984

This article offers a macro-level approach to a core concept in the study of electroral behavior, the normal vote. The approach uses interrupted time-series analysis and focuses upon electorally homogeneous political regions within states. After developing the approach used to generate normal vote estimates, analyses using those estimates are compared with (1) parallel analyses using survey-based research, and (2) across levels of analysis (national, regional). The comparison with survey-based analyses show that the macro-level measure follows the actual vote more closely and is more sensitive to shortterm influences. Comparisons across levels of analysis demonstrate that national level analyses obscure a volatile, dynamic electorate that exists at the regional level. These findings suggest that the creative use of the macro-level measure at the regional level has the potential to contribute new and important insights into the role of citizens in American politics, and the forces that drive the behavior of the electorate. Its particular strengths lie in the study of electoral change and its ability to contribute toward a developmental perspective on American democracy.

Who Voted For Smoot-Hawley?

Apart from the Fugitive Slave Act, the 1930 Smoot-Hawley tariff bill is probably the most infamous piece of legislation in U.S. history. Despite Smoot-Hawley's notoriety, explanations for the bill's passage are scarce. Two of the best-known accounts are the early analysis of E. E. Schattschneider-who saw the bill as the result of out-of-control log-rolling-and the more recent account of Robert Pastor-who believes that the Republicans capitalized on their landslide victory in the 1928 elections to carry out their long-standing commitment to raising tariff rates across the board.' Barry Eichengreen's recent paper provides a thoughtful analysis of these earlier explanations and concludes by identifying the economic coalition he believes was responsible for passing the bill.2 Assessing the validity of these accounts is difficult, however, without an analysis of the actual vote on the bill. This article presents a simple model of the vote that can be used to distinguish between the various explanations of why Smoot-Hawley passed. Our results from estimating this model indicate, rather surprisingly, that contrary to Eichengreen's suggestions-and contrary to much other recent work that shows economic interests to be of great importance in explaining votes in Congress-Pastor's argument that Smoot-Hawley was the result of the Republicans implementing their 1928 party platform appears to be correct. There is not much dispute that the Republicans ran a strongly protariff campaign in 1928. Herbert Hoover had long been in favor of a protective tariff and as Secretary of Commerce in the Harding and Coolidge Administrations had espoused the view that the United States should largely confine its imports to those products that could not be produced domestically.3 Although Hoover focused on increases in agricultural duties during the campaign, the discussion of tariff revision in the 1928 Republican platform entailed broader increases:

It was party identification all along: Question order effects on reports of party identification in Britain

The British voter is less likely than the American to make a distinction between his current electoral choice and a more general partisan disposition. This article investigates whether this difference might be due to a methodological difference between the British and American Election surveys: the British surveys, unlike the American, have placed the party identification question after the question on electoral choice, and this order may encourage the British respondents to bring their reports of their party identification into line with their actual votes. A split-sample panel study experiment was conducted to test this hypothesis. The results were not decisive, but they did suggest that the ‘improper’ question order elicited a smaller proportion of ‘true’ party identifiers and produced response uncertainty in the reporting of party identification.

Reported versus Actual Vote: There Is a Difference and It Matters

Reported versus Actual Vote: There Is a Difference and It Matters

The "Turning Point"

Scholars and journalists have long disagreed about the importance of presidential debates for influencing election results and public opinion. This article considers viewers' reactions to the second debate between George Bush and Michael Dukakis in October 1988, which was widely hailed as a turning point in the 1988 presidential campaign. Two major conclusions are drawn in this article. First, this supposedly critical debate had no more effect on actual vote choices than debates studied previously. Second, while the debate did not satisfy needs for guidance and reinforcement, it did lead to a short-term increase in viewers' information levels. That effect, however, dissipated in the two weeks after the conclusion of the debate. These findings cast serious doubts about some of the benefits of televised presidential debates, even under these "favorable" conditions.

Vote probabilities

The election outcome of the parliamentary elections in the Netherlands in 1986 showed a considerable discrepancy from the expected results. Neither are large differences between poll results and election outcomes exceptional for other countries, as for example in West Germany in 1987. Research in the Netherlands showed that the failure of opinion polls to predict accurately the election outcome in 1986 was due to voters' uncertainty in regard to their political preference. Within the theory of voting behaviour, one can find a number of different reasons which might give a theoretical explanation for this uncertainty. In this article we will introduce vote probabilities as a way of measuring the degree of voters' uncertainty. We will show that it is possible to use these probabilities to predict an election outcome, taking into account the voters' uncertainty and his possible alternative choices. Empirical research in the future might introduce vote probabilities as intervening variables between the alleged explanatory variables of voting behaviour and the actual vote itself.

AIDS, FRAIDS, and Quarantine: Student Responses to Pro‐Quarantine Initiatives in California

In the literature on AIDS, only a few empirical social reactivist studies of heterosexuals have been done, probably due to the preoccupation with explaining the incidence of AIDS among high‐risk groups. The following study of 563 students enrolled in a large Southern California university adds to the heterosexual student literature by operationalizing an important research variable, FRAIDS, and by embarking on explanatory analysis of attitude and self‐reported behavior. FRAIDS, which we will define as the fear of getting AIDS from casual contact sources, may be helpful in explaining both high‐risk sexual behavior among heterosexuals and pro‐quarantine sentiment. However, only the subsets of the FRAIDS variable (FRAIDS‐dry and FRAIDS‐wet) proved explanatory. FRAIDS‐dry (fear of HIV infection from dry sources) proved significant in explaining sexual activity, while FRAIDS‐wet (fear of HIV infection from wet casual contact sources) was found significant in explaining pro‐quarantine sentiment. The converse was not true. Using homophobia as a control variable, homophobia was found to overshadow FRAIDS‐wet for males but FRAIDS‐wet rivaled homophobia in predicting pro‐quarantine sentiment for females. Growing quarantine sentiment was noted among the students, as the survey took place during two different time periods (Fall of 1986 (N= 375) and Spring of 1988 (N= 188)), essentially before and after the actual vote in November 1986 on a pro‐quarantine initiative (Proposition 64) that appeared on the California ballot. This apparent increase in pro‐quarantine sentiment among students (and voters) highlights the need for attention to homophobia as well as detailed discussion of the fear of wet casual contact in AIDS education.

The Influence of Attitudes and Normative Pressures on Voting Decisions in a Union Certification Election

This paper investigates how both attitudes and normative pressures influenced the voting decisions of public university clerical workers in a December 1984 union representation election. Not surprisingly, the voters' attitudes, shaped by the results they expected to follow from union certification and their evaluation of those results as good or bad, appear to have been an important determinant of voting intentions and, in turn, actual votes. Also influential, although less so, was normative pressure, a function of how the voters thought others (family, co-workers, other clericals, supervisors, and other management staff) wished them to vote and how strongly they were inclined to satisfy those wishes.

Value orientation, left‐right placement and voting

Abstract. In this article we try to disentangle the constraints between traditional lines of political polarization (left‐right placement) and newer distinctions (materialist/postmaterialist values) among mass publics. It is shown that voting or party preference is most clearly related to the left‐right placement of the respondents. However, this placement is directly and strongly dependent on the materialist/postmaterialist orientation, while background variables like education, income and age are linked to voting via this value orientation. The materialist/postmaterialist orientation appears to be the present‐day interpretation of the dominant political conflict in advanced industrial society. Although alignments and orientations count for a substantive part of the variance in voting, the power of these models to predict the actual vote of people turns out to be rather poor.

L'élection québécoise de 1985: un bilan des sondages

AbstractA great number of polls have been made public by the media during the 1985 electoral campaign in Quebec. The polls correctly predicted the winning party, but were not very good for forecasting the actual vote. A difference of 3 percent has been observed between the prediction and the vote with respect to the Liberal party and third parties considered as a whole. It is shown that the discrepancy must be attributed more to those who do not answer polls at all than to those individuals not willing to reveal their vote intention. Finally, the campaign seems to have had a small impact on the vote, the Liberal party increasing its share by 2 per cent and third parties loosing many votes among those who were tempted to support them at the beginning of the campaign.

A PREDICTIVE STUDY OF VOTING BEHAVIOR USING LAMPERT'S POLLIMETER

A voting behavior model hypothesizing voting intention as an intervening variable which mediates the relationship between voter attitudes and voting behavior was examined in the framework of the general election in Israel Voter attitudes were assessed via a new attitude scaling device embodying a number of characteristics that make it a promising tool for attitude measurement. Voter attitudes and intentions were collected prior to the elections, while the actual vote was collected after the elections. The model tested primarily via discriminant analysis, has gained considerable support. Implications of the findings are discussed and avenues for future research are suggested.

Preelection Polling in the 1982 Illinois Gubernatorial Contest

All the polls in advance of the 1982 Illinois gubernatorial election proved incorrect in their prediction of a substantial victory for James Thompson, the Republican. After examining some of the popular explanations for the missed call, this paper shows that while the voters preferred Thompson, there was a very substantial increase in the number of straight party ballots cast for the Democrats, compared to 1978. This paper concludes that in those states where straight party vote is an option, the poll takers probe for the possibility of a party line vote. Information used in this paper to examine five hypotheses stems from a preelection poll of 1,200 Illinois voters. Richard Day is President of Richard Day Research, Inc. (RDR), a survey research firm based in Evanston, Illinois. Kurt Becker, formerly with RDR, is now a law student at the University of Michigan. Public Opinion Quarterly Vol. 48:606-614 ? 1984 by the Trustees of Columbia University Published by Elsevier Science Publishing Co., Inc. 0033-362X/84/0048-606/$2.50 This content downloaded from 207.46.13.176 on Mon, 20 Jun 2016 05:49:52 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms PREELECTION POLLING 607 This paper focuses on the Illinois gubernatorial election in 1982 and discusses five explanations of why the polls yielded errant projections. Support for one of these explanations provides an important methodological consideration for future survey research in other elections and in other states. Reported polling results for the 1982 election for governor of Illinois are reported in Table 1. Two firms undertook procedures to project the final outcome by assigning the undecided voters on the basis of demographic and partisan information (Table 2). There was no difference in projections between the Gallup survey and the RDR survey. The RDR survey also tested for variation between the 10/31 results and the 11/1 results and found no significant shifts over the two days before the election. First, a most basic criticism of polling needs to be addressed: faulty procedures. Errant information could stem from several sources: samples were too small or improperly drawn; interviewing was conducted at times of the day when certain types of people were more likely to be at home; random digit dialing was not employed in areas where there is a high concentration of unlisted numbers; callbacks were not made to contact those more difficult to reach (younger, higher income, more educated individuals). Such sources of error have been reviewed (Perry, 1979; Field, 1979) and are known. The Table 1. Polling Results for the 1982 Election for Governor of Illinois Dates Client/Firm Thompson Stevenson Undecided 10/22-24 Chicago Tribune/ Market Facts, Inc. 53 34 13 CBS Affiliate (WBBM-TV)/Market Shares 58 38 4 10/28-29 Chicago Sun-Times and NBC Affiliate (WMAQ-TV)/Gallup 55 40 5 10/3111/1 ABC Affiliate (WLS-TV)/Richard Day Research, Inc.a 55 38 7 11/2 Election day actual vote 50.07 49.93 a Of a sample size of 1,200, 780 were used for statewide purposes and 420 represented an oversample in Cook County. For Cook County, the appropriate sample size is 737. In every instance, weighting was by area and percentage of the vote in the 1978 election. There was an even distribution of males and females. This content downloaded from 207.46.13.176 on Mon, 20 Jun 2016 05:49:52 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms 608 RICHARD DAY AND KURT M. BECKER Table 2. Projections of Final Voting Outcome Dates Firm Thompson Stevenson (N) 10/28-29 Gallup 58 42 (2,562) 10/31Richard Day 11/1 Research, Inc. 58 42 (770) need in preelection polling to screen properly for those registered voters who are likely to turn out has also been clearly identified (Perry, 1973; Traugott and Tucker, 1982). The survey by RDR and surveys by the Gallup Organization addressed such sources of error.' The authors have no knowledge of methods used by other firms. However, as Kohut comments, When a half-dozen polls come up with the same erroneous answer, the chances are that there is some systematic factor that transcends traditional polling methodology (Kohut, 1983).

Public Opinion du Jour: An Examination of the Spiral of Silence

This study investigates the spiral of silence theory using perceived vote outcomes as well as actual vote behaviors. The first major hypothesis—that those who see their position as gaining support will be more likely to discuss while those who see their position as losing support will be less likely to discuss—was supported by the data. Some support was also found for the hypothesis that individuals perceiving support for a certain candidate would be more likely to express a preference for the candidate. Results also seemed to justify the Noelle-Neumann distinction between the resistant hardcore and other types of citizens. The relative independence of perception of opinion judgments from own preferences also was investigated and support was found for this difference.

Election predictions: Reply

Contrary to Aubert's claim, my paper on election predictions does not seek to draw empirical conclusions from mathematical premisses alone. The empirical premiss, approximated by the continuity assumption, is that sufficiently small changes in the predicted vote will cause only small changes in the actual vote. The technical criticisms by Ofsti and Osterberg of the reaction function are answered by specifying the function's domain. Other criticisms are also answered, and the reply concludes by placing the election prediction theorem in the context of other theorizing about human expectations and outguessing phenomena.

The effect of electoral rules on voting behavior: the electoral college and shift voting

The Electoral College has a measurable effect on the propensity of the rational voter to vote for the candidate he most prefers. The ‘slippage’ between the individual's articulated preference ordering and his actual vote is analyzed (using 1968 data) with respect to the strategic position of the voter in his state.

A Theory of Political Districting

Fair districting requires more than compact, contiguous equal-sized districts; namely, sets of districts should also possess certain features. Specifically, they should be neutral (treat all parties alike) and responsive to changes in votes. In order to establish the extent to which these goals can be achieved, we give a precise definition to the concept of neutrality and expand the notion of responsiveness into three characteristics: the range in actual votes over which a districting plan is responsive; the degree of responsiveness in the vicinity of the “normal vote” (i.e., competitiveness); and the constancy of the swing ratio (i.e., the rate at which vote changes yield seat changes) over a range of votes. We show that while all possible values for these features are readily attainable when considered individually, certain combinations of values cannot be achieved. Finally, we identify the nature of the compromises required and the properties that the compromises possess, and show the kinds of trade-offs that result in reasonably fair districting plans.

Memory for Past Vote: Implications of a Study of Bias in Recall

For political scientists and pollsters the way the individual voted on previous occasions provides an important source of data. In the absence of longitudinal studies, recall of past vote tends to be taken as equivalent to actual vote cast. How accurate is such recall? How far does accuracy decrease with time, where recall concerns not one, but two, previous elections? How far do errors introduce a systematic bias in the conclusions drawn from such data?

STRATEGIC CAMPAIGN BEHAVIOUR FOR ELECTORS AND PARTIES: THE NORTHERN IRELAND ASSEMBLY ELECTION OF 1973

ABSTRACTThe article attempts to show how the application of a “rational choice” model of electoral decision making to the 1973 Northern Ireland Assembly Election campaign points to some need for a reorientation of this approach, although there is no basic reason why the model cannot be made to work in a seemingly “irrational” situation. Aspects of strategic behaviour other than simple ideological manoeuvring are discussed and related to the campaign itself. These include strategic use of information and resources. Finally the actual vote transfers are used to test the proposition that some degree of rationality did exist in voter choice at the election.

The Mid-Victorian Voter

The Mid-Victorian Voter The attractions of voting studies for political scientists are well known, the reasons obvious. In most countries, the basic data are supplied in great profusion by government agencies; survey techniques in this area are sophisticated; above all, the problems readily lend themselves to quantification. In sum, the voting study brings the social scientist closer to the natural scientist than practically any other study, with all the advantages that that implies. The historian's contribution to voting studies is also well known. By their very nature such studies draw on historical data; for example, the longer the run of elections, the more material there is for testing hypotheses worked out initially on contemporary information. The use of historical data is, however, by no means exhausted, and in this article I hope to demonstrate that the advent of computer facilities has opened a rich vein which could well add new dimensions to the study of voting behavior. From the point of view of the political scientist qua political scientist, one of the major hindrances to voting studies is the fact that the ballot is now secret. To get information on individual voting behavior, historians today must use surveys, and these can, of course, be used only in the case of elections that have taken place in the recent past. Both the political scientist and the historian can, however, overcome this common obstacle if-so far as England is concerned-they study voting behavior before the passage of The Secret Ballot Act of 1872. Up to that time all voting in Parliamentary elections took place in public, and, since it was common for printers to publish lists of the actual votes recorded, access to the lists is relatively easy. The printed information commonly includes the name of the voter, his address, and the name or names of the candidates for whom he voted. Other kinds of nominative

The Accuracy of a Journalistic Poll

Many newspapers throughout the country now conduct pre-election polls for predicting the outcome of elections. In this article, the authors investigate the oldest of these, the New York Daily News poll, on the basis of the variations between the poll results and the actual vote. They find a systematic error in the poll and suggest that the correctness of a poll in picking the winners has little meaning as a measure of its scientific accuracy. The authors also discuss the responsibility of newspapers in their polling activities. Allan Greenberg is Research Director of Doyle, Dane, Bernbach, a New York advertising agency, and Daniel Lissance is Manager of Sales Development and Research for NBC Spot Sales.