Public Opinion du Jour: An Examination of the Spiral of Silence

Abstract

This study investigates the spiral of silence theory using perceived vote outcomes as well as actual vote behaviors. The first major hypothesis—that those who see their position as gaining support will be more likely to discuss while those who see their position as losing support will be less likely to discuss—was supported by the data. Some support was also found for the hypothesis that individuals perceiving support for a certain candidate would be more likely to express a preference for the candidate. Results also seemed to justify the Noelle-Neumann distinction between the resistant hardcore and other types of citizens. The relative independence of perception of opinion judgments from own preferences also was investigated and support was found for this difference.