Actual Course Of Events Research Articles

Action and Unintended Consequences: Counterfinality’s Paradox as a Sociological Problem

Counterfinality is the unintended consequences that stem from uncoordinated actions. Counterfinality problem can be described as a complex theoretical problem, including the problems of understanding the motive for action, the transition from individual goals to collective results, and unintended consequences. Understanding the motive for action is an initial challenge in the study of counterfinality. This problem is well studied in sociology, and the ideas of authors such as Weber and Schütz are still relevant. Understanding the motive for action can be accomplished by having a stock of social knowledge and an understanding of typical situations and the typical motives. However, any attempt to describe a motive for action is only a hypothesis, and the actual course of events is the basis for understanding action, and therefore ethnographic observations come first in describing counterfinality. After that, it is important to trace the transition from these actions to collective irrational consequences. Such a transition is possible because of the shortsightedness of individuals focused only on personal goals. In addition to these misperceptions, unintended collective consequences can have other conditions of occurrence: insufficient information, publicly voiced predictions and etc. The presented sequence of description of counterfinality from action to consequences is a theoretical reference point and a more detailed description of all stages of counterfinality emergence is the task of a particular empirical study.

Analysis of Longitudinal Beam Damage of a Container Chassis Semi-Trailer Using Finite Element Method – Case Study

This study investigates the damage of a container chassis loaded with a container having a capacity of 22 thousand litres. The chassis was damaged during full-load operation. Based on the observed effects of damage induced in a longitudinal beam (longeron) of the container chassis, a hypothetical course of events was elaborated. An attempt was made to recreate the actual course of events by eliminating the reasons due to which the effects of damage significantly differed from those observed post factums. To this end, numerical finite element method (FEM) simulations were performed using the Abaqus software. The damaged longitudinal beam of the container chassis was modelled using three-dimensional (3D) solid elements. It was assumed that the beam had the same profile cross-section over its entire length. In the numerical model, the container chassis had a pinned support on the fifth wheel. Elastic elements were used to model the axle-supported regions of the container chassis with the wheels. The following three events were identified as the potential causes of container chassis damage: the container chassis was supported by the bumper on the ground when the wheels on the right side were in contact with the bottom of the road surface cavity; the container chassis was supported by the bumper on the ground when the wheels on the right side were not in contact with the bottom of the road surface cavity; the bumper was subjected to point impact during vehicle reversal. The numerical results demonstrated that for each of the proposed damage hypothesis, the highest reduced stresses were located in the very region where the container chassis damage was actually observed. It was found that the observed damage was most probably induced when the container chassis was supported on the bumper and there was no contact between the wheels and the road surface due to the presence of a cavity in the road surface. Moreover, analytical calculation results demonstrated that the force acting on the structural members of the container chassis in the analysed load case exceeded the force resulting from the static load of the structure by more than 2.5 times. The load-induced stress in the beam material significantly exceeded the strength of the structure.

Nationalists, Phanariots, and Constitutional Crisis: The 1908 Samos Uprising

The short-lived rebellion that broke out on the island of Samos in May 1908 is often characterized as the project of Greek nationalists aiming to unify the island with the Kingdom of Greece. Since 1834, Samos had been an autonomous principality within the Ottoman Empire, ruled by a Christian prince appointed by the sultan. While nationalist agitation played an important role in the 1908 uprising, the actual course of events was characterized by a complex interaction among Greek nationalists, those Samiotes who wanted to maintain the autonomous principality, and the agents of the imperial government. The uprising ultimately seems to have been a case of local nationalists exploiting a constitutional crisis to further their aim of uniting the island with Greece.

Collective Complicity in War Crimes. Some Remarks on the Principle of Moral Equality of Soldiers

The article critically analyzes one of the central assumptions of Michael Walzer’s version of just war theory, as presented in his main work devoted to war ethics. As requested by the author of Just and Unjust Wars, the controversial nature of the principle of the moral equality of soldiers is revealed by discussing the actual course of events of a historical military conflict – namely, the outbreak of World War II, one of the main issues dealt with in Walzer’s book. The exclusion of individual responsibility of people involved in a military operation which finds no moral justification seems to entail a number of consequences that put a heavy burden on Walzer’s overall model of military ethics. In order to ensure the necessary level of coherence of just war theory one may need to modify Walzer’s principle of the moral equality of soldiers – at least in relation to the participants of total war.

Дезинтеграционные процессы на территории бывшей Российской империи (на примере Бессарабской губернии)

In the context of the disintegration processes that engulfed the former Russian Empire after the February and especially October revolutions, Bessarabia became a field of conflict of interests of various geopolitical actors, especially Romania, which intends to take advantage of the favourable situation and annex this territory. The decisions of the Sfatul Tärii (regional Council), a local legislative body of dubious legitimacy, formed in hot pursuit, were supposed to give "legitimacy" to this action. Nevertheless, the Romanian historiography continues to assert the «volun- tary» accession of Bessarabia to Romania. The article, based on the analysis of the actual course of events, refutes this thesis. It is also stated that Romania would not have been able to carry out its plan independently, without the support of the Western powers, under any circumstances.

Steampunk without steam: The Book of Devices as Neo-Ottoman experimentation

ABSTRACT Turkish author Ihsan Oktay Anar’s The Book of Devices (2017, Kitab-ı Hiyel) employs pseudo-steampunk characteristics in a pre-modern Ottoman context. The novel experiments with the possibility of steampunk’s expansion as a translated/adopted cultural element within the larger concept of world literature. I argue that The Book of Devices distorts the Anglo-American attitude of Neo-Victorianism as exemplified in steampunk. Anar’s (in)competence in depicting actual course of events in history, in portraying an imaginable technology that might work, and in forming a non-colonialist cultural background create a distorted example of an application of the steampunk genre in the Turkish setting. The book then comes to be an attempt to create a Neo-Ottoman mindset against Neo-Victorian expansion as reflected through steampunk. This way, though steampunk presents itself as “inhospitable” in that it resists outside intrusion from non-European experiments, Anar successfully merges it with modern Turkish literature to establish a local genre.

Impact of molecular point-of-care testing on clinical management and in-hospital costs of patients suspected of influenza or RSV infection: a modeling study.

BackgroundAt hospital admission, patients suspected of infection with influenza or respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are placed in isolation, pending the outcome of diagnostics. In a significant number, isolated care proves unnecessary. We investigated the potential impact of molecular point‐of‐care (POC) diagnostics on patient management and in‐hospital costs.MethodProspective collection of data on resource utilization within the hospital from consecutive patients 18 years or older presenting at our university medical center with symptoms of respiratory tract infection from December 2016 to April 2017. A cost analysis was conducted using Markov modeling comparing the actual course of events (on the basis of routine diagnostic tests) with two hypothetical scenarios: when POC would impact time to diagnosis only (scenario 1) or on discharge from the hospital, too (scenario 2).ResultsA total of 283 patients were included, of whom 217 (76.7%) were admitted. Influenza and RSV were detected in 31% and 7% of the patients, respectively. Fifty‐four percent of patients tested negative, of which 79% were kept in isolated care waiting for test results, with a median duration of 24 hours. Median length of stay was 6.0 days. Mean total in‐hospital costs per patient were € 5243. Introducing POC would lower mean costs per patient to € 4904 (scenario 1) and € 4206 (scenario 2). At the hospital level, this would result in a total cost reduction of € 95 937 to € 293 471 in a single influenza season.ConclusionsIntroducing POC testing for patients presenting with symptoms of viral respiratory tract infection can reduce time‐to‐diagnosis, hospital stay and, thereby, in‐hospital costs.

Non-Fiction Transmedia: Seriality and Forensics in Media Sport

The article uses two examples (from 1908 and 1966) to analyse in greater detail why and how sport’s transmedia dynamic is very much fostered by the close interrelations between the seriality of sport events and the forensic attitude of fans. Two arguments are of special importance: (1) While social media add to forensic fandom’s proliferation, it was sport’s strongly serialized evaluation of performances that actually triggered the “spreadability” of sport-related topics across different media, first doing so at the end of the 19th century. What is more, modern sport owes its very existence to the cross-media circulation of its events. (2) So far, transmedia has mainly been researched with respect to fictional content, yet existing research on documentary transmedia forms and social media seriality has shown that the inclusion of non-fiction can broaden our knowledge of how storytelling sprawls across media and takes advantage of their specific affordances. This, I want to argue, ensures that sport is an insightful and important example for the understanding of transmedia world-building.

If Counterfactuals Were Excluded from Historical Reasoning . . .

The argument of this paper is that counterfactuals are indispensable in reasoning in general and historical reasoning in particular. It illustrates the role of counterfactuals in the study of history and explores the connection between counterfactuals and the notions of historical necessity and contingency. Entertaining alternatives to the actual course of events is conducive to the assessment of the relative weight and impact of the various factors that combine to bring about a certain result. Counterfactuals are essentially involved in understanding what it means for an event, an action, or an individual to make a difference. Making a difference, in turn, is shown to be a central category of historical reasoning. Counterfactuals, though sensitive to the description they use, make objective claims that can be confirmed or disconfirmed by evidence.

UNRELIABLE NARRATION AS A TENDENCY IN MODERN LITERARY DISCOURSE

In the aspect of modern approaches to the study of art creativity unusual narrative can be considered to be the author’s technique of fixing of actions and events through the associative grip of memory and imagination domains. In this case the reader perceives the domain of memory on the background of the imagination domain. The unreliable narration focuses the reader’s attention on the mental processes that occur in the mind of the storyteller, who is characterized by a specific mentality, lack of social adaptation and other similar ontological features. The story-teller himself/herself distances from the actual course of events, suffers from the psychological trauma and on initiating the story he/she tries « to heal» from the pain caused by these injuries. The sense of loss, guilt and extreme despair inevitably affect the manner of narrative storytelling. We can say that the goal of the unreliable narration is to put to the forefront the characteristics of the narrator’s psychological state, make the focus on his/her inner life and the ironic understanding of the reality. The narrator’s comments on the reality are not consistent with the concept of the sound judgment. Author’s fixing the narrator’s alarmed consciousness is considered to be the most consistent features of the unreliable narration.

The Siege of Strasbourg, by Rachel Chrastil

The Siege of Strasbourg, by Rachel Chrastil. Cambridge, Harvard University Press, 2014. 320 pp. $39.95 US (cloth). Just as the Franco-Prussian War of 1870-71 represented an important milestone on the sanguine path to total war, the sieges conducted during that conflict also reflected a strange hybrid of seventeenth century practices and rituals, and the increasing destructive power of modern industrialized warfare. Of course, the most significant and protracted sieges conducted during this war were of Metz and Paris. For good reason they have received the lion's share of attention from historians studying this period. However, the relatively brief (six week) siege of Strasbourg is of special interest for a number of reasons. Since it was the first major city besieged by the advancing allied German armies the destruction of cultural heritage and civilian lives through artillery bombardment evoked outrage in a European community that had been spared any major war since the defeat of Napoleon in 1815. It was also a somewhat unique situation in that the Germans were attacking a city populated by people that they intended to reunite with an empire from which they had been annexed by France centuries earlier. Chrastil has chosen to focus her study on the experience of the citizens during the siege as opposed to the military-political dimension of the conflict. This seems to have been a wise decision as the sections that discuss the military aspects of the conflict are amongst the weakest in the book. Fler chronicle of the drama of the besieged inhabitants of the city is at times compelling and the author has succeeded in bringing new manuscript sources to light that help to provide a very personal perspective on the course of the battle. The author also avoids falling into the trap of providing a chronology of hardships suffered by the city's population by continually attempting to place her narrative into the larger context of broader historical trends--the rudimentary state of international law governing the conduct of war, the role of humanitarianism as a motive for the intervention of non-belligerent states and the importance of gender stereotypes in enumerating civilian suffering. And although Chrastil has pushed the military dimension of the siege into the background and only gives a rough sketch of the actual course of events in the field, she does offer an interesting character study of the leaders of both the German and French forces--Generals Jean Uhrich and August von Werder. In particular, she gives an insightful analysis of how each commander perceived his assigned role based upon military conventions and how each played their designated parts in this drama. …

Violence on the Fringes: The Virginia (1622) and Amboyna (1623) Massacres

AbstractTwo events, both labelled massacres by the English who suffered death at the hands of their rivals, took place within the space of a year on opposite sides of the globe and in widely different overseas contexts. The first episode took place in Virginia in March 1622, when Opechancanough and his soldiers killed one‐third of the English colonists in a surprise attack. The second episode transpired in February 1623 in the Spice Islands, when Dutch East India Company officials in Ambon suspected English East India Company employees of conspiring with Japanese soldiers to seize the trading post, interrogated and tried them, and executed twenty‐one men. This episode, known in England by 1624 as the ‘Amboyna massacre’, endured as a meaningful frame of reference well into the eighteenth century. This article explores the particular contexts of each episode and analyses what violence meant to different participants. It investigates how each event became a ‘massacre’ to survivors and to observers in England. In both Virginia and Amboyna, the English were victims, not perpetrators, of violence, and thus these events offer an opportunity to explore how victims of violence deployed their ordeals, in pamphlets, images, plays, and songs, to further their own ends. Labelled as massacres, these two episodes acquired a meaning apart from the actual course of events, helping the English to reassess their overseas goals, to re‐evaluate their prospects and to define themselves anew.

Ockhamism without Thin Red Lines

This paper investigates the logic of Ockhamism, a view according to which future contingents are either true or false. Several attempts have been made to give rigorous shape to this view by defining a suitable formal semantics, but arguably none of them is fully satisfactory. The paper draws attention to some problems that beset such attempts, and suggests that these problems are different symptoms of the same initial confusion, in that they stem from the unjustified assumption that the actual course of events must be represented in the semantics as a distinguished history, the Thin Red Line.

Exploring the Experiences of Resilience in Muslim Afghan Refugee Children

The aim of this study was to explore the experiences of Muslim Afghan refugee children living in Canada. War has an impact on a child's life, including education and protection by the family and community. The actual course of events of war can never be told completely due to the occurrence of simultaneous adversities. Hermeneutic photography was used to understand the experiences of Afghan children. Data were collected through photo conversations. Building and sustaining resilience was a theme that emerged from the data analysis. The findings of the study provide a useful guide for education, practice, and policy development to benefit Afghan refugee children and their families to overcome adversities in a new country.

Three Forgotten Accessions: Gilgit, Hunza and Nagar

The August 1947 transfer of power in India brought to the fore questions regarding the future of the areas which had long been leased by the government of India from certain princely states. Focusing on the Gilgit Agency, parts of which were leased from the state of Jammu and Kashmir, this article traces the nature of the agency and the manner in which it ultimately became a de facto part of Pakistan while Kashmir acceded to India. Conflicting accounts exist as to who was actually responsible for the revolution in Gilgit which led it towards Pakistan. This article uses all available sources to relate clearly and analyse the actual course of events during the tumultuous months of October and November 1947. The article also assesses the status and then formal accession of the two small states of Hunza and Nagar, adjacent to Gilgit, which had been erroneously treated as being under the complete suzerainty of Kashmir.

ECONOMIC CRISES IN TURKEY: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF FAILURES IN 1994, 2001 AND 2008-9

The currency and banking crises which the Turkish economy faced in the last sixteen years are generally attributed to financial and fiscal fragilities, typical of developing countries with liberalised capital accounts. Although the sudden stops and reversals in capital flows seem to be the common factor underlying crises of that kind, the three cases analysed in the text took place at different international and domestic conjunctures and were unfolded in different policy environments. In the international context, the volume, composition and degree of volatility of capital flows made a major impact on the severity and evolution of the crises. In the context of the national economy, not only diverse exchange rate arrangements and demand management policies, but also the changing emphases on institutional issues put their imprint on the actual course of events. The paper starts with definitions, explanations and stylised facts about currency and banking crises. It later goes into exploring the behaviour of the relevant indicators (i.e. those related to balance of payments, finance and public sector accounts) in Turkey over the pre-crisis, crisis and post-crisis periods in each of the crises concerned. The possibility of using some of these indicators as advance warning signals is also discussed. The last three crises in the Turkish economy were not simply the outcomes of policy mistakes committed by Turkey alone, but were also highly influenced by systemic features of the world economy working under neoliberal principles. The fact that the Turkish governments since the capital account liberalisation have been either unable or unwilling to monitor the transmission mechanisms of international shocks into the domestic economy suggests that currency and banking crises in Turkey are likely to recur over the medium term.

Names as a potential source for conflict

Toward the end of World War I the name of the post office station "Germantown" at Germantown, Glenn County, California, was changed to "Artois" which eventually resulted in the name change of the village itself to Artois. This paper compares current present-day accounts of the incidents leading to the post office name change with the actual course of events as they could be reconstructed from contemporary 1918 newspaper reports. It continues to trace the change as it shifted to the name of the township itself and concludes with a second look at the present-day accounts of the past historical events.

Getting Our History Right: How Were the Equal Rights of Women and Men Included in the Charter of the United Nations?

The article analyses the founding conference of the United Nations in San Francisco in 1945 to find out how a nearly completely male-dominated assembly could proclaim the equal rights of men and women as part of the fundamental human rights. The participation and proceedings of the conference are studied on the basis of official UN documents, autobiographies from women delegates and reports. It is noted that the accounts provided by the UN itself in basic reference books as well as the UN website are partly incomplete, partly incorrect. The processes described are oversimplified, important actors are left out and others are attributed with roles they did not in fact play. Regarding the actual course of events, the active lobbying of women's nongovernmental organisations (NGOs), the differing views of various female delegates and the supportive action of leading male politicians are particularly worthy of notice.

Force dynamics, fictive dynamicity, and the Finnish verbs of ‘remaining’

This article examines the semantic factors motivating the use of directional (‘to’) local cases in the morphological marking of the locative argument of the verb jäädä ‘remain’ in Finnish. It is argued that this use of the directional cases is motivated by the dynamic conceptualization of an apparently static situation. In this dynamic conceptualization, the actual course of events where the entity remains in a location is contrasted with a projected course of events whereby the entity leaves the location. The event of ‘remaining’ thus constitutes a change from the projected course of events into the actual one, and it is this dynamic meaning that motivates the directional case marking. The paper also addresses the more theoretical question of whether conceptualization can motivate the use of grammatical markers with other Finnish verbs.

Advanced Interfaces to Support Continuous Planning and Re-Planning during Tactical Operations

A research program to develop decision support for mobile Army commanders has resulted in a prototype interface. This interface was developed using principles of Cognitive Systems Engineering, and initial evaluations were very positive. This demonstration showcases recent design efforts to support re-planning during tactical operations, which are extremely demanding and critical for mission success. Unfortunately, these activities have received relatively little attention from the research community. The prototype interface has been designed to assist the commander in performing these activities. This interface highlights key elements of the battle plan (i.e., the intended course of events), the battle execution (i.e., the actual course of events as they unfold over time), and the differences between them.