Accumulated Degree Days Research Articles

Microbial neoformation of volatiles: implications for the estimation of post-mortem interval in decomposed human remains in an indoor setting

The objective of this study was to determine if a relationship between microbial neoformation of volatiles and the post-mortem interval (PMI) exists, and if the volatiles could be used as a tool to improve the precision of PMI estimation in decomposed human remains found in an indoor setting. Chromatograms from alcohol analysis (femoral vein blood) of 412 cases were retrospectively assessed for the presence of ethanol, N-propanol, 1-butanol, and acetaldehyde. The most common finding was acetaldehyde (83% of the cases), followed by ethanol (37%), N-propanol (21%), and 1-butanol (4%). A direct link between the volatiles and the PMI or the degree of decomposition was not observed. However, the decomposition had progressed faster in cases with microbial neoformation than in cases without signs of neoformation. Microbial neoformation may therefore act as an indicator of the decomposition rate within the early decomposition to bloating stages. This may be used in PMI estimation based on the total body score (TBS) and accumulated degree days (ADD) model, to potentially improve the model’s precision.

Age determination of the adult blow fly Lucilia sericata (Diptera: Calliphoridae) through quantitative pteridine fluorescence analysis

Determination of a minimal postmortem interval via age estimation of necrophagous diptera has been restricted to the juvenile stages and the time until emergence of the adult fly, i.e. up until 2–6 weeks depending on species and temperature. Age estimation of adult flies could extend this period by adding the age of the fly to the time needed for complete development. In this context pteridines are promising metabolites, as they accumulate in the eyes of flies with increasing age. We studied adults of the blow fly Lucilia sericata at constant temperatures of 16 °C and 25 °C up to an age of 25 days and estimated their pteridine levels by fluorescence spectroscopy. Age was given in accumulated degree days (ADD) across temperatures. Additionally, a mock case was set up to test the applicability of the method. Pteridine increases logarithmically with increasing ADD, but after 70–80 ADD the increase slows down and the curve approaches a maximum. Sex had a significant impact (p < 4.09 × 10−6) on pteridine fluorescence level, while body-size and head-width did not. The mock case demonstrated that a slight overestimation of the real age (in ADD) only occurred in two out of 30 samples. Age determination of L. sericata on the basis of pteridine levels seems to be limited to an age of about 70 ADD, but depending on the ambient temperature this could cover an extra amount of time of about 5–7 days after completion of the metamorphosis.

Potential and actual ascospore release of Erysiphe necator chasmothecia in Austria

Ascospores of grape powdery mildew (Erysiphe necator Schw.) play a crucial role in the disease onset in spring in many vine-growing areas. We investigated the physiological maturation of chasmothecia and the time of the first potential ascospore release in three grape-growing areas in Austria by providing standardized conditions for ascospore release in the laboratory and excluding the environmental influence for the release itself. In the overwintering season 2017/2018, the potential ascospore release started in March 2018 in all three investigated wine-growing areas, while in 2018/19, the potential ascospore release was already possible in autumn 2018. Autumn 2018 was characterized by higher temperatures than autumn 2017. We related accumulated degree days (base 8 °C) after chasmothecia formation with the time of first potential chasmothecia dehiscence and found that more than 480 degree days are necessary to reach physiological maturity of chasmothecia. Temperature significantly influenced the dynamics of the potential of ascospore release. More than 50% of the total potential of ascospore release occurred before bud break in both years. Furthermore, weather factors affecting the actual ascospore release in the field were studied. Precipitation and leaf wetness showed a significant positive correlation with ascospore release in the vineyard. In contrast to the potential release, only a small percentage of actual release in the field occurred before bud break, while 84 and 95% of total trapped ascospores were found between bud break and flowering in 2018 and 2019, respectively. Our results reveal that the potential release and actual release have to be combined to predict ascospore release in spring.

A Generalized Additive Model Correlating Blacklegged Ticks With White-Tailed Deer Density, Temperature, and Humidity in Maine, USA, 1990-2013.

Geographical range expansions of blacklegged tick [Ixodes scapularis Say (Acari: Ixodidae)] populations over time in the United States have been attributed to a mosaic of factors including 20th century reforestation followed by suburbanization, burgeoning populations of the white-tailed deer [Odocoileus virginianus Zimmerman (Artiodactyla: Cervidae)], and, at the northern edge of I. scapularis' range, climate change. Maine, a high Lyme disease incidence state, has been experiencing warmer and shorter winter seasons, and relatively more so in its northern tier. Maine served as a case study to investigate the interacting impacts of deer and seasonal climatology on the spatial and temporal distribution of I. scapularis. A passive tick surveillance dataset indexed abundance of I. scapularis nymphs for the state, 1990-2013. With Maine's wildlife management districts as the spatial unit, we used a generalized additive model to assess linear and nonlinear relationships between I. scapularis nymph abundance and predictors. Nymph submission rate increased with increasing deer densities up to ~5 deer/km2 (13 deer/mi2), but beyond this threshold did not vary with deer density. This corroborated the idea of a saturating relationship between I. scapularis and deer density. Nymphs also were associated with warmer minimum winter temperatures, earlier degree-day accumulation, and higher relative humidity. However, nymph abundance only increased with warmer winters and degree-day accumulation where deer density exceeded ~2 deer/km2 (~6/mi2). Anticipated increases in I. scapularis in the northern tier could be partially mitigated through deer herd management.

Environmental Drivers of Adult Seasonality and Abundance of Biting Midges Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae), Bluetongue Vector Species in Spain.

Bluetongue is a viral disease affecting wild and domestic ruminants transmitted by several species of biting midges Culicoides Latreille. The phenology of these insects were analyzed in relation to potential environmental drivers. Data from 329 sites in Spain were analyzed using Bayesian Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) approaches. The effects of environmental factors on adult female seasonality were contrasted. Obsoletus complex species (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) were the most prevalent across sites, followed by Culicoides newsteadi Austen (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae). Activity of female Obsoletus complex species was longest in sites at low elevation, with warmer spring average temperatures and precipitation, as well as in sites with high abundance of cattle. The length of the Culicoides imicola Kieffer (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) female adult season was also longest in sites at low elevation with higher coverage of broad-leaved vegetation. Long adult seasons of C. newsteadi were found in sites with warmer autumns and higher precipitation, high abundance of sheep. Culicoides pulicaris (Linnaeus) (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) had longer adult periods in sites with a greater number of accumulated degree days over 10°C during winter. These results demonstrate the eco-climatic and seasonal differences among these four taxa in Spain, which may contribute to determining sites with suitable environmental circumstances for each particular species to inform assessments of the risk of Bluetongue virus outbreaks in this region.

Eye-background contrast as a quantitative marker for pupal age in a forensically important carrion beetle Necrodes littoralis L. (Silphidae)

Insect pupae sampled at a death scene may be used to estimate the post-mortem interval. The pupal age is however difficult to estimate, as there are no good quantitative markers for the age of a pupa. We present a novel method for pupal age estimation based on the quantification of contrast in intensity between the eyes of a pupa and the middle grey photography card as a standard background. The intensity is measured on a standardized scale from 0 (perfect black) to 255 (perfect white) using computer graphical software and pictures of the eye and the background taken with a stereomicroscope. Eye-background contrast is calculated by subtracting the average intensity of the eye from the average intensity of the background. The method was developed and validated using pupae of Necrodes littoralis (Linnaeus, 1758) (Coleoptera: Silphidae), one of the most abundant beetle species on human cadavers in Central Europe. To develop the model, pupae were reared in 17, 20 and 23 °C, with a total of 120 specimens. The method was validated by three raters, using in total 182 pupae reared in 15, 17, 20, 23 and 25 °C. We found a gradual increase in eye-background contrast with pupal age. Changes followed generalized logistic function, with almost perfect fit of the model. Using our method pupal age was estimated with the average error of 8.1 accumulated degree-days (ADD). The largest error was 27.8 ADD and 95% of age estimates had errors smaller than 20 ADD. While using the method, different raters attained similar accuracy. In conclusion, we have demonstrated that eye-background contrast is a good quantitative marker for the age of N. littoralis pupae. Contrast measurements gave accurate estimates for pupal age. Our method is thus proven to be a candidate for a reliable approach to age insect pupae in forensic entomology.

Postmortem submersion interval (PMSI) estimation from the microbiome of Sus scrofa bone in a freshwater river

Due to inherent differences between terrestrial and aquatic systems, methods for estimating the postmortem interval (PMI) are not directly applicable to remains recovered from water. Recent studies have explored the use of microbial succession for estimating the postmortem submersion interval (PMSI); however, a non-disturbed, highly replicated and long-term aquatic decomposition study in a freshwater river has not been performed. In this study, porcine skeletal remains (N = 200) were submerged in a freshwater river from November 2017–2018 (6322 accumulated degree days (ADD)/353 days) to identify changes and successional patterns in bacterial communities. One cage (e.g., 5 ribs and 5 scapulae) was collected approximately every 250 ADD for twenty-four collections; baseline samples never exposed to water acted as controls. Variable region 4 (V4) of 16S rDNA, was amplified and sequenced via the Illumina MiSeq FGx sequencing platform. Resulting sequences were analyzed using mothur (v1.39.5) and R (v3.6.0). The abundances of bacterial communities differed significantly between sample types. These differences in relative abundance were attributed to Clostridia, Holophagae and Gammaproteobacteria. Phylogenetic diversity increased with ADD for each bone type; comparably, β-diversity bacterial community structure ordinated chronologically, which was explained with environmental parameters and inferred functional pathways. Models fit using rib samples provided a tighter prediction interval than scapulae, with a prediction of PMSI with root mean square error of within 472.31 (∼27 days) and 498.47 (∼29 days), respectively.

Functional growth analysis of diploid potato cultivars (Solanum phureja Juz. et Buk.)

Plant growth analysis has been widely used to study factors that influence plant growth. This analysis uses a set of quantitative methods that describe and analyze the growth of plants and their organs. It uses data from direct measurements (weight, area, volume) and quantifies and analyzes growth using indexes based on models defined by mathematical functions. This study conducted a functional growth analysis of diploid potato cultivars in Colombia. The functional growth analysis of diploid potato cultivars was carried out over three consecutive growing seasons in Medellín, Colombia. A randomized block design was used with two levels of fertilization and five repetitions. The first factor corresponded to the three potato cultivars, and the second factor was two fertilization levels: 260 and 778 kg of fertilizer per hectare. Samples were taken weekly, and each sample was an entire plant per experiment unit. The dry weight of each organ and the leaf area were measured. These measurements were used to calculate the relative growth rate, leaf area ratio, net assimilation rate, and specific leaf area. The development time was evaluated in accumulated degree-days with threshold temperatures of 2 and 29°C. The three cultivars recorded their highest net assimilation rate at 1,252 accumulated degree days (ADD), with values of 0.0002565, 0.0002021, and 0.0001778 g cm-2 ADD-1 in the ‘Latina’, ‘Guaneña’, and ‘Colombia’ cultivars, respectively. The Latina cultivar stood out in several physiological characteristics, including the fastest developing cultivar. ‘Latina’ also had the highest total dry mass accumulated in the cycle (271.05 g) and accumulated dry matter in tubers (237 g).

Phenological growth stages of stevia (Stevia rebaudiana Bertoni) according to the Biologische Bundesanstalt Bundessortenamt and Chemical Industry (BBCH) scale

AbstractStevia (Stevia rebaudiana Bertoni) is a perennial crop belonging to the Asteraceae family. Its main agronomic and industrial interest is the accumulation in its leaves of steviol glycosides (SG), natural acaloric sweeteners which are 300 times sweeter than sucrose. In order to expand phenotyping knowledge on this emerging crop, researchers and breeders need a universal scale to describe the development of this plant. The objective of this study was to describe the phenological growth stages of stevia through the use of the Biologische Bundesanstalt Bundessortenamt and Chemical Industry (BBCH) scale to provide a standard scale for stevia grown under temperate conditions of production and climate. The observation of phenological stages was performed on genetic resources and validated on stevia progenies grown in field conditions. The 10 phenological stages, namely germination, bud development, foliar development, side shoots appearance, stems elongation, development of harvestable part of the crop, inflorescence emergence, flowering, development of fruit, seeds ripening and senescence, were used to describe the stevia, supplemented with pictures. The chronology and duration of each stage were also observed and described according to the accumulation of degree days during the growing season. This study presents the first BBCH scale established for S. rebaudiana cultivated in temperate conditions and a chronology of phenological stages based on the accumulation of thermal time, through growing degree day calculation (°C/day). This work provides a tool that can be widely used by farmers, breeders and researchers leading to better agronomic management and scientific communication.

Establishing a minimum PMI for bone sun bleaching in a UK environment with a controlled desert-simulated comparison

Microenvironments play a significant part in understanding the post-mortem interval in forensic taphonomy. Recently, the value of weathering factors in relation to obtaining a PMI has been investigated further. In this study, observations were made to calculate the length of time it takes for three different bone elements (femur, rib, and scapula) to bleach in a UK summer and winter. This research also investigated whether there were any physicochemical modifications to the bone caused by bleaching. Porcine femora, scapulae, and ribs were placed into open and shaded areas of an outdoor research facility located in Oxfordshire, UK, during summer (July–Sep) and winter months (Dec–Mar). The specimens were monitored at 3-week intervals using photography, and an observational scoring method was developed to quantify the extent of bleaching. As temperatures are typically much lower in the UK compared with warmer climates, a controlled indoor-simulated desert experiment was also undertaken to be used as a control. This allowed sun bleaching and changes to the bone chemistry to be monitored in a controlled, high-UV environment for comparison with the UK outdoor experiments. Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) was employed to analyze physicochemical modifications to both the mineral and organic components of the bone. The FTIR was used to calculate crystallinity index (CI), mineral to organic ratio, and the relative amount of carbonate concentrations. Weather data was collected and a positive correlation was found between both ultraviolet (UV) levels and accumulated degree days (ADD) when compared with observational bleaching scores. Bleaching (whitening) of the bone samples occurred in both seasons but at different rates, with the bleaching process occurring at a slower rate in winter. During summer, the initial bleaching process was evident at 6 weeks, and by 9 weeks, the bones were an off-white colour. During the winter period, whitening of the bone started at 9 weeks; however, only the scapula and rib samples displayed a similar off-white colour. This colouration was observed at 13 weeks rather than at 9 weeks. The desert simulation samples started bleaching in a similar pattern to the outdoor samples after 1 week but the bones did not fully bleach. The bone chemistry, based on physicochemical properties obtained from the FTIR, showed a significant statistical difference between the simulated desert and winter season when compared against a control sample. For the winter samples, the mineral to organic ratio was significantly higher than that in the control, suggesting a reduction in the proportion of organic. For the samples in the simulated desert environment, the crystallinity index was significantly higher than that in the control samples, suggesting an increase in crystallinity. The results of this experiment support the fact that it is possible to achieve bleaching in a UK environment and that the minimal time frame for this to occur differs in seasons.

Modeling Temperature Variations Using Monte Carlo Simulation: Implications for Estimation of the Postmortem Interval Based on Insect Development Times*, †.

The association between insect development and temperature is well established. Thermal summation using accumulated degree-day measures is commonly used. However, the time at which evidence is collected is important in these estimates. The aim of this study was to provide a simulated model of the effect of temperatures on six dipteran species commonly associated with cadavers, from the death scene to the refrigerator, and finally at the time of autopsy. Temperatures measurements were sampled over a 16-month period from the external environment (external to the mortuary), within the mortuary refrigerator, and within the mortuary autopsy suite. Monte Carlo simulation using accumulated degree-days (ADD) was used to estimate the variations based on the mean and standard deviation of the temperature measurements. It was found that there was a negative correlation between the base temperature of the fly species (lowest temperature at which the flies will survive) and developmental likelihood. Species with high base temperatures (Chrysomya albiceps, Chrysomya chloropyga, and Musca domestica) were less likely to continue development in refrigerators than species with lower base temperatures (Lucilia sericata and Piophila casei). The findings of this study highlight the importance of recording temperature measurements and the period of refrigeration on PMI estimation especially when continued development occurs in spite of a period of cooling of the insect evidence.

A Decision Support System Based on Degree-Days to Initiate Fungicide Spray Programs for Peach Powdery Mildew in Catalonia, Spain.

The incidence of peach powdery mildew (PPM) on fruit was monitored in commercial peach orchards to i) describe the disease progress in relation to several environmental parameters and ii) establish an operating threshold to initiate a fungicide spray program based on accumulated degree-day (ADD) data. A beta-regression model for disease incidence showed a substantial contribution of the random effects orchard and year, whereas relevant fixed effects corresponded to ADD, wetness duration, and ADD considering vapor pressure deficit and rain. When beta-regression models were fitted for each orchard and year considering only ADD, disease onset was observed at 242 ± 13 ADD and symptoms did not develop further after 484 ± 42 ADD. An operating threshold to initiate fungicide applications was established at 220 ADD, coinciding with a PPM incidence in fruit around 0.05. A validation was further conducted by comparing PPM incidence in i) a standard, calendar-based program, ii) a program with applications initiated at 220 ADD, and iii) a nontreated control. A statistically relevant reduction in disease incidence in fruit was obtained with both fungicide programs, from 0.244 recorded in the control to 0.073 with the 220-ADD alert program, and 0.049 with the standard program. The 220-ADD alert program resulted in 33% reduction in fungicide applications.

Seasonal Population Dynamics of Potato Psyllid (Hemiptera: Triozidae) in the Columbia River Basin.

Understanding factors that affect the population dynamics of insect pest species is key for developing integrated pest management strategies in agroecosystems. Most insect pest populations are strongly regulated by abiotic factors such as temperature and precipitation, and assessing relationships between abiotic conditions and pest dynamics can aid decision-making. However, many pests are also managed with insecticides, which can confound relationships between abiotic factors and pest dynamics. Here we used data from a regional monitoring network in the Pacific Northwest United States to explore effects of abiotic factors on populations of an intensively managed potato pest, the potato psyllid (Bactericera cockerelli Šulc), which can vector Candidatus Liberibacter psyllaurus, a bacterial pathogen of potatoes. We assessed effects of temperature on psyllid populations, and show psyllid population growth followed predictable patterns within each year, but there was considerable variation across years in psyllid abundance. Examination of seasonal weather patterns suggested that in 2017, when psyllid populations were less abundant by several orders of magnitude than other years, a particularly long and cold period of winter weather may have harmed overwintering populations and limited population growth. The rate of degree-day accumulation over time, as well as total degree-day accumulation also affected trap catch abundance, likely by mediating the number of psyllid generations per season. Our findings indicate that growers can reliably infer the potential magnitude of risk from potato psyllids using monitoring data, date of first detection, seasonal weather patterns, and population size early in the growing season.

Egg Hatching and First Instar Falling Models of Metcalfa pruinosa (Hemiptera: Flatidae).

Since the citrus flatid planthopper, Metcalfa pruinosa (Say), was introduced in Korea and many European countries, it has caused serious damage to various agricultural crops and landscape plants. Metcalfa pruinosa hibernates as eggs beneath the bark and in cracks of tree branches, and then substantial numbers of the first instar nymphs fall from the trees and move to other host plants. Knowing the timing of egg hatching and falling of the first instar nymphs would be key for controlling M. pruinosa. In this study, the hatching of overwintered M. pruinosa eggs and falling of the first instar nymphs from trees were monitored in several areas of Korea. These data were modeled with two starting points for degree-day accumulation, 1 January and 18 March, with a lower development threshold of 10.1 °C. The egg hatching and first instar falling models both used 1 January because the starting point performed better. The 50% appearance and falling times of the first instar nymphs were predicted to be 360.50 DD and 452.23 DD from 1 January, respectively, indicating that newly hatched nymphs stayed on the trees for about a week (i.e., 91.74 DD). Using these models, changes in the population density of the first instar nymphs of M. pruinosa on the trees were simulated, and the optimal control time range targeting the nymphs on the trees was deduced. The control time for nymphs on ground plants bordering the trees was suggested by the first instar falling model, along with observations of population density on the ground plants.

Spring wildflower phenology and pollinator activity respond similarly to climatic variation in an eastern hardwood forest.

Climate warming could disrupt species interactions if organisms' phenologies respond to climate change at different rates. Phenologies of plants and insects can be sensitive to temperature and timing of snowmelt; however, many important pollinators including ground-nesting bees have been little studied in this context. Without knowledge of the environmental cues affecting phenologies of co-occurring species, we have little ability to predict how species assemblages, and species interactions, will be affected by climate change. Here, we studied a hardwood forest understory over six years, to determine how spring temperatures, snowmelt timing, and photoperiod influence the phenology of two spring wildflowers (Anemone spp. and Trillium grandiflorum), activity of ground-nesting bees, and their temporal overlap. Surface degree-day accumulation was a better predictor of phenology for Anemone spp. (plant) and Nomada (bees) than were day of year (a proxy for photoperiod) or snowmelt date, whereas Trillium flowering appeared most sensitive to photoperiodic cues. Activity periods of Andrena and Lasioglossum bees were equally well described by degree-day accumulation and day of year. No taxon's phenology was best predicted by snowmelt date. Despite these differences among taxa in their phenological responses, timing of bee activity and flowering responded similarly to variation in snowmelt date and early spring temperatures. Furthermore, temporal overlap between flowering and bee activity was similar over the years of this study and was unaffected by variability in snowmelt date or temperature. Nevertheless, the differences among some taxa in their phenological responses suggests that diverging temporal shifts are a possibility for the future.

Estimating the Impact of Laminar Flow on the Pattern and Rate of Decomposition in Aquatic Environments-Is There a Better Way of Modeling Decomposition?

Determining the Postmortem Submersion Interval (PMSI) is challenging for forensic anthropologists due to the variability of decomposition in aquatic environments. One possible cause of this variability that has received little attention in the literature is the impact of laminar flow. In order to determine whether flow affects the pattern or rate of decomposition, this study analyzed six rabbit carcasses submerged in two different sites: one with slow, laminar flow ("River Site") and one without flow ("Canal Site"). A pulley system was designed in order to periodically bring the carcasses out of the water for sampling, with the pattern of decomposition monitored using visual descriptions of the decomposition process and the rate monitored using the Heaton et al. 2010 method of scoring aquatic decomposition in conjunction with accumulated degree days (ADD). The rate of decomposition was found to be significantly different between the two sites (F(1, 126) = 89.569, p < 0.01). In addition, decomposition was observed to occur in four distinct stages, which were modeled as a series of curves, and a Staged Decomposition Model was created as the possible basis for an improved predictor of PMSI versus the current loglinear approach. While the traditional loglinear approach appears to give a good approximation to the Staged Decomposition Models in environments with laminar flow, this research suggests that it may be less accurate for nonflowing sites.

Temperature-dependent development of Omosita colon at constant temperature and its implication for PMImin estimation

Omosita colon (Linnaeus, 1758) (Coleoptera: Nitidulidae) is a species widely distributed in the Holarctic that usually appears during more advanced stages of decay. It is one of the species found on highly decomposed remains. Although O. colon may be a promising indicator of post-mortem interval (PMI) in cases with longer PMI, there is currently no existing research on its growth and development. Therefore, we studied the development of O. colon at seven constant temperatures between 16 and 34 °C and found that O. colon can complete its entire life cycle between 16 and 31 °C, but failed to complete development at 34 °C. At 16, 19, 22, 25, 28, and 31 °C, the developmental duration of O. colon from egg to adult is 95.3 ± 11.4, 62.4 ± 8.5, 45.9 ± 2.8, 34.9 ± 3.4, 30.0 ± 2.6, and 25.2 ± 2.6 d, respectively. Based on the results of development time and accumulated degree days, an isomorphen diagram was plotted and a thermal summation model was established. The mean (±SE) developmental threshold temperature D0 and the thermal summation constant K calculated using the thermal summation model were 10.65 ± 0.16 °C and 514.1 ± 8.7° days, respectively. The results of this study provide fundamental developmental data for the use of O. colon in minimum post-mortem interval (PMImin) estimations.

Models for simulating the frequency of pests and diseases of Coffea arabica L.

We developed models for simulating trends over time as functions of the thermal index and models for estimating the levels of infestation of the coffee leaf miner and coffee berry borer and the severity of disease for coffee leaf rust and cercospora, the main phytosanitary problems in coffee crops around the world. We used historical series of climatic data and levels of pest infestation and disease severity in Coffea arabica for high and low yields for seven locations in the two main coffee-producing regions in the state of Minas Gerais in Brazil, Sul de Minas Gerais and Cerrado Mineiro. We conducted two analyses: (a) we simulated the trends of the progress of diseases and pests over time using non-linear models. We only used the thermal index because air temperature is commonly measured by farmers in the regions. (b) We estimated the levels of pest infestation and disease severity using multiple linear regression, with the levels of diseases and pests as dependent variables and accumulated degree days (DD), coffee foliage (LF) estimated by DD and the number of nodes (NN) estimated by DD as independent variables. We used DD and LF = f (DD) and NN = f (DD) to predict diseases and pests with accuracy. MAPEs were 19.6, 5.7, 9.5, and 15.8% for rust, cercospora, leaf miner, and berry borer, respectively, for Sul de Minas Gerais. Establishing phytosanitary alerts using only air temperature was possible with these models.

Extended model for estimation of ambient temperature for postmortem interval (PMI) in Korea

One of the most important factors for calculating the accumulated degree days (ADD), which is used to estimate the postmortem interval (PMI) is the accurate estimation of the scene temperature after death. As the estimation method used up to now, they applied to the linear regression analysis using the temperature of the nearest weather station, but the prediction error becomes larger in the case that the ambient temperature do not follow the temperature of the station. In the present study applied we have more accurate methods such as the quadratic regression model and support vector machine (SVM) and have included weather factors such as wind capacity, wind speed and humidity, and regression method. Also, we investigate the optimal statistical method for estimating the ambient temperature in indoor and outdoor locations in Korea.

The carrion beetle Oxelytrum discicolle (Coleoptera: Silphidae) and the estimative of the minimum post-mortem interval in a forensic case in Brasília, Brazil

Abstract The order Coleoptera is considered second highest in forensic importance in criminal cases involving violent death, because members of this order increase in richness and abundance as the decomposition process progresses. We present here the first Forensic Entomology (FE) case in Brazil where the carrion beetle, Oxelytrum discicolle (Coleoptera: Silphidae), was used to estimate the minimum post-mortem interval (m-PMI) in a forensic case. A female corpse, at an advanced stage of decomposition, was found on a deserted highway near Brasilia/Brazil. The corpse was removed from the site, and insect samples were collected on and inside the corpse at the Forensic Medicine Institute of the Federal Police, following the specific FE protocols. The m-PMI was estimated considering two techniques, the pre-appearance interval (PAI) and the accumulated degree-days (ADD). The development stage of the larvae of O. discicolle allowed investigators to propose that this species was part of an earlier colonization, soon after death, with total length and prothorax width compatible with third instar larvae. Adult females of O. discicolle oviposited on the corpse at least 20 days before it was removed from the site where it was found, thus characterizing the m-PMI. This is the first case in which information on the development of the O. discicolle was used in a criminal investigation in Brazil.