Modeling Temperature Variations Using Monte Carlo Simulation: Implications for Estimation of the Postmortem Interval Based on Insect Development Times*, †.

Abstract

The association between insect development and temperature is well established. Thermal summation using accumulated degree-day measures is commonly used. However, the time at which evidence is collected is important in these estimates. The aim of this study was to provide a simulated model of the effect of temperatures on six dipteran species commonly associated with cadavers, from the death scene to the refrigerator, and finally at the time of autopsy. Temperatures measurements were sampled over a 16-month period from the external environment (external to the mortuary), within the mortuary refrigerator, and within the mortuary autopsy suite. Monte Carlo simulation using accumulated degree-days (ADD) was used to estimate the variations based on the mean and standard deviation of the temperature measurements. It was found that there was a negative correlation between the base temperature of the fly species (lowest temperature at which the flies will survive) and developmental likelihood. Species with high base temperatures (Chrysomya albiceps, Chrysomya chloropyga, and Musca domestica) were less likely to continue development in refrigerators than species with lower base temperatures (Lucilia sericata and Piophila casei). The findings of this study highlight the importance of recording temperature measurements and the period of refrigeration on PMI estimation especially when continued development occurs in spite of a period of cooling of the insect evidence.