Water demand and supply under future water development and climate change scenarios in the upper Blue Nile basin

Abstract

ABSTRACT Integrated methodological approaches to analyzing water demand and supply under changing scenarios in a river basin are crucial for managing water resources. This study evaluates the effects of climatic change and socioeconomic development on the water system in the upper Blue Nile basin. An integrated methodological approach was used, including the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) models. Water development scenarios were created for two time periods: near future (2021–2040) and full development (2041–2060). During the current account period, the amount of water delivered for irrigation purposes was balanced, and existing hydropower plants generated energy at full capacity. However, the irrigation water supply in the near future and full development periods under climate change scenarios indicates a shortfall at the basin level. Despite the fact that the basin's hydropower energy production will increase during the scenario periods, under construction and planned hydropower plants are predicted to operate at less than full capacity. The study concluded that climate change-induced water availability and irrigation expansion would contribute to the basin-level water supply–demand mismatch. As a result, the overall findings recommended water resource management requirements for increasing availability of water, minimizing water demand, and reducing unmet demand.