Abstract
An integrated modeling approach analyzing water demand and supply balances under management options in a river basin is essential for the management and adaptive measures of water resources in the future. This study evaluated the impacts of climate change on the hydrological regime by predicting the change in both monthly and seasonal streamflow, and identified water supply and demand relations under supply management options and environmental flow maintenance. To reach a better understanding of the consequences of possible climate change scenarios and adaptive management options on water supply, an integrated modeling approach was conducted by using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) and water evaluation and planning model (WEAP). Future scenarios were developed for the future period: 2060s (2051–2070), using an ensemble of three general circulation model (GCM) simulations: GFDL-CM3, GISS-E2-R-CC, and IPSL-CM5A-MR, driven by the climate projection for representative concentration pathways (RCPs): 6.0 (medium emission scenario). The results indicated that, firstly, the future streamflow will decrease, resulting in a decline of future water availability. Secondly, water supply under natural flow conditions would support 46,167 ha of irrigation schemes and the water shortages will be more noticeable when environmental flow maintenance was considered. The study concludes that reservoir construction would be necessary for agriculture mitigation and adaptation to climate change. Furthermore, the water resources management options considering both supply and demand management are more effective and useful than supply management only, particularly in dealing with climate change impacts.
Highlights
Water resources have been increasingly stressed due to the growth of multiple pressures, such as climate change, population growth, groundwater depletion, energy demand rise, and environmentalWater 2020, 12, 2462; doi:10.3390/w12092462 www.mdpi.com/journal/waterWater 2020, 12, 2462 flow requirements [1,2]
The future flow changes were analyzed through the change in meteorological data as projected by three general circulation model (GCM) under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 6.0
This study suggests that water resources management options considering both supply and demand management are more effective and useful than supply management only, in dealing with climate change impacts
Summary
Water resources have been increasingly stressed due to the growth of multiple pressures, such as climate change, population growth, groundwater depletion, energy demand rise, and environmentalWater 2020, 12, 2462; doi:10.3390/w12092462 www.mdpi.com/journal/waterWater 2020, 12, 2462 flow requirements [1,2]. Water resources have been increasingly stressed due to the growth of multiple pressures, such as climate change, population growth, groundwater depletion, energy demand rise, and environmental. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has recognized the significant indications of climate change: global temperature rise due to greenhouse emissions and water cycle changes [3]. IPCC uses general circulation models (GCMs) for future climate change projections based on different representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios. The change in the water cycle and hydrological regime would result from land use/cover change and climate change. Regarding future water management and hydrological processes under climate change conditions, water availability for meeting water supply diversion, reservoir storage, and environmental flow requirements must be assessed [5]. Water demand increases generally result unsustainable water use and insufficient water remain for environmental conservation [6]. Management options could be considered both demand (reduce water demand) and supply (increase water to fulfill the demand) management options
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