Abstract
This paper presents simulation of Lake Tana reservoir future water use under emerging scenario with and without climate change impacts. Two different development and climate change scenarios were developed to simulate Lake Tana water level i.e., i) Base line scenario (1991-2000) ,ii) Future development scenario on short term periods(2031-2040) , and ii) Future development scenario on long term periods (2091-2100). River head flow estimated by Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used as an input to Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model to simulate the Lake level for each scenario. Based on WEAP model simulation results, demand coverage and reliability of 100% was observed in all scenarios for Tana-Beles hydropower project. For scenarios without climate change impacts, there are longer periods of time when mean monthly lake levels are below 1785 masl (i.e., the minimum lake level required for shipping). Under natural conditions (lake level without project), they exceed this level in 100%.under current conditions (Base line scenario, BLS), they exceed this level in 89% of the months. In the full development scenario (FDSCʹ), this will decrease to 83%. For all scenarios with climate change impacts, Lake water Level will not significantly be affected by climate change impacts.
Highlights
The increased demand of water for agriculture, industries, domestic, and power generation in Lake Tana sub-basin requires proper planning and management of water resources in the basin
| P a g e www.ijctonline.com water resources development increases there are longer periods of time when mean monthly lake levels are below 1785 masl [4]
Under natural conditions, they exceed this level in 100%.under current conditions (Base line scenario, BLS), they exceed this level in 89% of the months
Summary
The increased demand of water for agriculture, industries, domestic, and power generation in Lake Tana sub-basin requires proper planning and management of water resources in the basin. The purpose of this study is applying a physically based semi distributed model called Soil and water assessment tool (SWAT), to understand the hydrology of the basin, to know the water resource potential as a whole from gauged and un-gauged catchments as well as water evaluation and planning (WEAP) model[6] were used to asses upstream catchment development and climate change impact on Lake Tana water level and to assess the sustainability of Tana –belles Hydropower plant on the basis of adjusting the operation rule of Lake Tana reservoir. The study addresses; The assessment of water resources potential of Lake Tana basin, Assessment of Impact of upstream irrigation development on Lake Tana water level and Tana-belles Hydropower plant, Assessment of impact of climate change on Lake Tana and Beles hydro power plant with and without emerging upstream irrigation project, and assessment of the sustainability of Tana-Beles development on the basis of adjusting the operation rule of the Lake.
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