Vulnerability of forest ecosystems under the impact of climate change (case study Southeast Republic of Moldova

Abstract

The forest ecosystems in the South-Eastern part of the country are distinguished by rich biological diversity, with rare species, located at the limit of their natural distribution area, induced by the presence of the territory at the contact of several biogeographical regions. Under the impact of current environmental changes, the sensitivity of forest ecosystems to climate change directly related to their ability to respond / adapt to these changes. The concomitant use of the eco-climatic indices De Martonne Aridity Index (IM) and the Ellenberg Coefficient (EQ) give the estimation of the exposure of tree mesophilic species to the aridization of the regional climate. It established that the forest ecosystems in the region have a high level of vulnerability to climate aridity, with tendencies towards a very high level of vulnerability - conditions that induce a lasting deficit in humidity and, respectively, forest degradation. Accelerated climate change trends will modify the sensitivity of forest species to water scarcity (increased risk), changes in the compositional structure of those ecosystems and chorological movements of species (from mesophilous deciduous forests in the temperate zone will move to climatic conditions specific to the growth and development of arid oak forests, with thermophilic species). We consider that the results are of practical interest in the sustainable management of the forestry sector.