Forest ecosystems’ vulnerability of Emerald site “Pădurea Hîncești” to climate change

Abstract

The Emerald site “Pădurea Hîncești” is located in central part of the Republic of Moldova territory and contains forest ecosystems dominated by oak species (the most valuable species of the national forest fund). Scientific research on the assessment of the protected forest ecosystems vulnerability, under the impact of climate change, using ecoclimate indices (De Martonne Aridity Index – IM; Conventional Humidity Balance – K; and Ellenberg Quotient - EQ) and mapping of obtained results, are very current and important in forest sustainable development. The study determined that, per general, Emerald site has climatic conditions favorable for growth and development of forest ecosystems on the entire surface (the K index values being above unit, for the period when the air temperature was ≥ 10°C). IM values calculated for the Emerald site (19912020) range from 24.2 to 37.0 units, framed territories from semi-arid climatic conditions, to humid climatic conditions, favorable for the development of steppe and forest communities. In Emerald site, there are two areas of forest vulnerability to climate aridity: high vulnerability level, within moderately arid climate and lasting disturbances of the moisture; and medium vulnerability level, within slightly humid climate and disturbances of the moisture in some years. Based on the IM temporal trends, there is future risk to pass from a medium to a high forest vulnerability to climate change in almost all site. The EQ values vary between 29.5 and 46.0 units (developing climate conditions favorable for oak-hornbeam forests development growth in the northern side of site; for oak forests - in the central part, and for dry / arid oak forests -in the southern part). Concerns about the sustainable management of the forest sector and the expansion of forest areas with tree species adapted to new environmental conditions must be a constant in the country's sectoral priorities.