Voting for the Underdog or Jumping on the Bandwagon? Evidence from India's Exit Poll Ban

Abstract

Exit poll surveys during elections are conducted to predict the outcome of the actual elections. However, such polls have historically been controversial, particularly for multi-phase elections, as they could potentially influence the behavior of voters in the latter rounds of voting. If subsequent voters are likelier to vote for the predicted frontrunner, it is known as the bandwagon voting phenomenon whereas if they vote for the predicted trailing candidate, the phenomenon is known as underdog voting. To avoid such issues, in 2009 the election administration in the world's largest democracy (India) had introduced a blanket ban on exit polls being published in the media until all rounds of an election are completed. Exploiting the potentially exogenous timing of this reform and using administrative data to compare states which went to elections before and after this ban, we estimate that this reform led to an increase in voter turnout and winning margins. We also find that vote share increases for the winner and decreases for others, suggesting evidence of underdog voting behavior among the Indian electorate. Further, we find that the ban leads to more candidates contesting elections and fewer withdrawals suggesting that, in the counterfactual with exit polls, candidates may believe that voters would engage in bandwagon voting.